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DungBeetle
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« Reply #2085 on: May 10, 2020, 02:25:28 PM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

If your happy that 2m people are going to become redundant due to the virus rather than their work or their employers decisions and then let them struggle to find any kind of similar role then there's absolutely no reason to mess around weaning!

Sure, some of them should be going anyway and there will have been some good luck/bad luck situations around timing.

Personally I think softening this blow is probably a good plan.

60% July with introduction of part time furlough
40% August
Finished 31st August

Is better than just cutting it dead on the 30th June



Happy is the wrong word! That said millions lost their job after credit crisis and the current benefit system was deemed good enough for them so I don’t see why Covid redundancies gets special treatment.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #2086 on: May 10, 2020, 02:42:50 PM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

If your happy that 2m people are going to become redundant due to the virus rather than their work or their employers decisions and then let them struggle to find any kind of similar role then there's absolutely no reason to mess around weaning!

Sure, some of them should be going anyway and there will have been some good luck/bad luck situations around timing.

Personally I think softening this blow is probably a good plan.

60% July with introduction of part time furlough
40% August
Finished 31st August

Is better than just cutting it dead on the 30th June



Happy is the wrong word! That said millions lost their job after credit crisis and the current benefit system was deemed good enough for them so I don’t see why Covid redundancies gets special treatment.

Because they're not redundancies. Furlough means temporary, redundancy means your job has gone.

Redundant would be of no one was ever going to go to the pub again for example. I'm pretty sure most people will just go back to what they were doing before after it's all over
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« Reply #2087 on: May 10, 2020, 03:09:26 PM »

If they can add a bit of flexibility to the furlough scheme it could help significantly.

For my Company the hard rule that a minimum furlough period is 3 weeks is very difficult to work around.

It's a very difficult time for us to manage as a small firm because we need to get the timing right bringing people back. Currently there is a bit of work for us but not enough to justify bringing anyone off furlough.

We've been furloughed for 6 weeks and there is maybe 3 days work available for a couple of guys. It's also starting to look like there may be more work creeping in over the next few weeks.

The difficulty is that if I bring a pair back for 3 days and nothing else comes in then I have to lose them for at least another 3 weeks. This causes a problem if something then comes in during that 3 weeks.....

If the 3 week rule is removed and I can furlough people for part time working that would be brilliant. I could bring someone in for 3 days, pay them normally for that and then furlough them for the other 2 days of the week.

I can't see this happening as it would probably be open to abuse but it's one possible way of easing us back in to things.
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« Reply #2088 on: May 10, 2020, 04:02:54 PM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

If your happy that 2m people are going to become redundant due to the virus rather than their work or their employers decisions and then let them struggle to find any kind of similar role then there's absolutely no reason to mess around weaning!

Sure, some of them should be going anyway and there will have been some good luck/bad luck situations around timing.

Personally I think softening this blow is probably a good plan.

60% July with introduction of part time furlough
40% August
Finished 31st August

Is better than just cutting it dead on the 30th June



Happy is the wrong word! That said millions lost their job after credit crisis and the current benefit system was deemed good enough for them so I don’t see why Covid redundancies gets special treatment.

Because they're not redundancies. Furlough means temporary, redundancy means your job has gone.

Redundant would be of no one was ever going to go to the pub again for example. I'm pretty sure most people will just go back to what they were doing before after it's all over

I'm sure lots of people will go back to what they were doing before at some point in the future.

I think the pubs are a great example though.
We don't know when they will reopen.
A good percentage probably won't reopen.
Another good chunk will go on the next 6 months.
Furlough unlikely to match the pub situation specifically.

What is now furlough, will at some point become mass redundancies.
Sure over the years these jobs will come back, but you have to think there is going to be a huge problem for many in that industry working on relatively small margins.
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« Reply #2089 on: May 10, 2020, 05:24:07 PM »

Stay alert , what a ridiculous message.

It's like you want the public to look out for the virus as though it's something you can see and avoid.

It's a tough one for the government to get right but stay alert is not the answer.
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« Reply #2090 on: May 10, 2020, 05:28:41 PM »

quite nervous about 7pm, I must say

the bungling around messaging all week has reinforced that we are led by the lightweight and the salesmen with an eye on the PR (albeit there are lots of difficult decisions) at a time where we need gravitas and precision particularly around data and science.

this is pre-recorded, filmed before cabinet was consulted too
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« Reply #2091 on: May 10, 2020, 05:31:09 PM »

Sky news to their credit kept refering to it as "Johnson's pre recorded speech" every time they brought it up.

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« Reply #2092 on: May 10, 2020, 05:35:39 PM »

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.
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« Reply #2093 on: May 10, 2020, 05:37:54 PM »

The problem is that people in increasing numbers are starting to ignore, or flex significantly, the stay at home message.
Keeping that message seems largely pointless.

Not sure what the answer is.  Quite nervous about 7pm & the resultant reaction.
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« Reply #2094 on: May 10, 2020, 05:45:44 PM »

The problem is that people in increasing numbers are starting to ignore, or flex significantly, the stay at home message.
Keeping that message seems largely pointless.

Not sure what the answer is.  Quite nervous about 7pm & the resultant reaction.


this began after someone in goverment briefed the tabloids midweek about ending lockdown for Monday, who produced triumphal headlines.

then the VE bank holiday and good weather

put the genie out of the bottle

I agree its difficult

Not sure Stay Alert is what I would have moved to, its vague. Also moving from wording on a red background to on a green background? It's amateur hour isn't it?

Also not sure adjusting the messaging and not having agreed that new message with Scotland and Wales either beforehand was wise

So we now have Sturgeon sticking with Stay at Home, and England adjusting it.

Pretty chaotic.


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« Reply #2095 on: May 10, 2020, 06:19:46 PM »

The problem is that people in increasing numbers are starting to ignore, or flex significantly, the stay at home message.
Keeping that message seems largely pointless.

Not sure what the answer is.  Quite nervous about 7pm & the resultant reaction.


this began after someone in goverment briefed the tabloids midweek about ending lockdown for Monday, who produced triumphal headlines.

then the VE bank holiday and good weather

put the genie out of the bottle

I agree its difficult

Not sure Stay Alert is what I would have moved to, its vague. Also moving from wording on a red background to on a green background? It's amateur hour isn't it?

Also not sure adjusting the messaging and not having agreed that new message with Scotland and Wales either beforehand was wise

So we now have Sturgeon sticking with Stay at Home, and England adjusting it.

Pretty chaotic.

Does seem like it could be a mess.
Will support whatever the message is, but the potential scenarios feel mostly negative.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #2096 on: May 10, 2020, 06:48:33 PM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

If your happy that 2m people are going to become redundant due to the virus rather than their work or their employers decisions and then let them struggle to find any kind of similar role then there's absolutely no reason to mess around weaning!

Sure, some of them should be going anyway and there will have been some good luck/bad luck situations around timing.

Personally I think softening this blow is probably a good plan.

60% July with introduction of part time furlough
40% August
Finished 31st August

Is better than just cutting it dead on the 30th June



Happy is the wrong word! That said millions lost their job after credit crisis and the current benefit system was deemed good enough for them so I don’t see why Covid redundancies gets special treatment.

Because they're not redundancies. Furlough means temporary, redundancy means your job has gone.

Redundant would be of no one was ever going to go to the pub again for example. I'm pretty sure most people will just go back to what they were doing before after it's all over

Yes obviously.  But if the furlough is just extended because it is known that the workers will be made redundant when it's over then it's just benefits dressed up by another name.  It's only furlough if the jobs exist when they go back.

Hence there is no need to "wean people off" furlough.  End it (at the right time) and you are either employed or redundant.
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« Reply #2097 on: May 10, 2020, 07:19:01 PM »

I fear that R number is going to go above 1 before the end of June.

Plenty of guinea pigs in the country to test the theory.
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« Reply #2098 on: May 10, 2020, 07:23:28 PM »

Super stuff from Boris, gave a great context to the changed messaging.

Gives some sense of potential timing, encourages people to stop loafing but do it safely.

Stresses the need to continue to social distance

Exactly the right message at the right time imo.
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« Reply #2099 on: May 10, 2020, 07:23:52 PM »

Yep that's the lock of the week of the century.

And we still have a high infection rate across the country so we are starting from a higher base.

We're fucked.
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