COVID19

[Doobs]

Racing continues.

Now I am confused.   Has someone announced something?

[Chompy]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/racing-continues-bha-and-government-sources-move-to-quash-shutdown-rumours/467664?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=RP-News&utm_content=ElteSport&utm_term=Null

[Doobs]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/racing-continues-bha-and-government-sources-move-to-quash-shutdown-rumours/467664?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=RP-News&utm_content=ElteSport&utm_term=Null

Cheers.  I must live in a cave as I heard nothing.

Do you know socialist tipster?  I have never come across him before, but Ivor Cummins was retweeting some dubious info from him this morning.  Turns out Norway has no cities with high population densities, but Sweden has loads :/

[Doobs]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1348537487598231553

Some good news from Zoe App.  Cases seem to have been levelling off and may have turned downwards.  I think this is the case on official data too, but it is has been hard to see through the lagging data.

The vaccine program seems to have picked up too, with Matt Hancock claiming they had done more last week than in all previous weeks.   Obviously a bit sporadic round the country as many over 80s not heard anything yet.   The Covid 19 Actuaries reponse group estimated 88% of deaths would be saved once the top 4 groups were vaccinated.

[Doobs]

I meant to add I did look for vaccination data, but I don't think daily numbers are published yet.  I assume they have these internally, as there have been more up to date numbers announced away from the Government update site. 

[Marky147]

Think John posted a link to a global vaccine tracker, and think we were on it. That would only yield overall numbers, I'd presume, and not by location etc.

Michael Yeadon another one who has plotted himself up in the groovy gang with Ivor & JHB.

https://buzzchronicles.com/CodyyyGardner/b/health/6785/

[DMorgan]

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/capecrusaders/the-covid-chronicles

2020 must be a 13 month year  

https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1348042100777082881

https://twitter.com/EmergencyBod/status/1348215169038626818

Found that in here, and can' believe there are 7ppl that have chucked him £5,000, and almost £150,000 total.

£10k costs and £135k dividends?

Genuinely rofl'd at the blurb describing himself as a "deep data analyst"

[Marky147]

He really is an insufferable prick  

[Marky147]

Does a bit of calculation on forthcoming hospitalisations, with a disclaimer that it's obv a rough guess and hopefully he's wrong.

[Doobs]

Does a bit of calculation on forthcoming hospitalisations, with a disclaimer that it's obv a rough guess and hopefully he's wrong.

I saw that earlier, I think he'd be much better off working off averages or something, beacuse the 25th just looks silly. 

I think it going to be pretty brutal for a few weeks, but I think there is a good chance cases have likely peaked for now.

I didn't like the oxygen saturation a bit though, I am not really as confident as him there.  I measure my oxygen saturaration quite a bit, and though it isn't exact, the lower it goes the worse I feel.  There really must be some downside from lowering the targets, but it is a bit like extending the spacing between vaccinations in that it isn't ideal, I guess rationing oxygen is likely better overall than favouring one patient other another. 

[Marky147]

Think that he did say about grouping them rather than specific days, because of the 25th, or was I not paying proper attention?

I guess just giving everyone a bit less, saves one having to starve. Obv preferable way to go, unless Cummins, Yeadon or HB1 have a solution for us.

[Marky147]

This is a good one, and even calls him out if he wants to debate.

https://twitter.com/JimTimberthing/status/1348604928466542594

Surely such a kwowledgeable deep data analyst, who rejects bad science, can carve up an out of work tech salesman, with the qualifications of a drop out (his own words)

[Doobs]

This is a good one, and even calls him out if he wants to debate.

https://twitter.com/JimTimberthing/status/1348604928466542594

Surely such a kwowledgeable deep data analyst, who rejects bad science, can carve up an out of work tech salesman, with the qualifications of a drop out (his own words)

I don't think there is much need to debate with him, I think it is better just to take his stuff apart.   Somebody produced a calendar with the Cummins seasons on and winter lasted 8 months...

I think we can ignore him, as things seem to be improving.  Cases look like they have peaked to me, and Stuart McDonald's crew are reporting hospital admissions slowing and they may well have peaked in the South East.  It is still early days, and Christmas and New Year reporting makes it hard to be absolutely sure, but I am reasonably confident.   

I think this is really good news, as there was, and maybe still is, the possibility the new variant could have led to increases in cases even under lockdown. 

Presumably Cummins will say this was down to the end of another winter and nothing to do with lockdowns.  He was claiming lockdowns don't work again yesterday.  You can make an argument that the cost of lockdowns is too much, but to argue on the effectiveness just seems ridiculous.  You can see the effect in the stats every time, even that half arsed November one caused a significant blip.  They can't just keep getting lucky on the timing.

[Marky147]

Nice little coup he's on, though. £5k a month from Patreon alone!

I saw that from Stuart before I went to bed, and hopefully it's right.

Never knew we had an 2 winters, until Ivor enlightened me, so have him to thank for that

[Doobs]

Nice little coup he's on, though. £5k a month from Patreon alone!

I saw that from Stuart before I went to bed, and hopefully it's right.

Never knew we had an 2 winters, until Ivor enlightened me, so have him to thank for that

He is just going on about a seasonally split wave like that is a thing that happens all the time in mortality charts.  He was going on about seasonal vectors and virus triggering yesterday.  It is just gobbledygook.   

There is definitely a seasonal effect in the surge, but it clearly isn't everything, and it doesn't mean seasonally split waves exist outside his word soup machine.