Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

What price was ronnie pre event last year? 4/1?  

Think he was bigger than that as he hadn't played for a year.  Seem to remember 7-1 but don't know for sure.

Yep 7's was available last year.

So he was 7/1 last year how on earth can he be anything other than a lay at 6/4 this year.  I appreciate he wasn't playing etc last season but it was reasonably well known he was still in decent form.

As noted by others, yes, he was initially 7/1 last year, due to his prior absence, but that was a false price & disappeared pretty sharpish.

Quite sure I got 8's early on and thought he was about 11-2/6-1 pre comp.

Nothing like 6-4 anyway.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £230.82

Outstanding Bets £3623.24

Free bets to use, ONE WILLIAM HILL 19TH APRIL, £55 BETFRED

Admin: Check WH free bet, not showing. Check London Marathon refund

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

A loss of £40 yesterday, on goalscorer bets in last night's football on Kallstrom and McLaughlin

The four red ink horsemen of the betting apocalpyse (restriction, referral, tiddlearse and triple maximum, they are called) was delayed on a couple of bets last night

- Arsenal's 3-1 victory over West Ham keeps faint hopes of a top three finish and the title alive. Realistically both will lose for -£150, but mathematically, in with a shout

- Barnsley's 2-1 victory at Charlton means they are 11 points behind Sheff Wed with 4 games to go on our Top South Yorkshire club bet. Again, unlikely, but we live to fight another day.

Not the greatest of days in LVCC Cricket. Evans had failed for Warwickshire twice in the match and then the team compiled 471 with big runs elsehwere in the team

At Chelmsford Essex compiled a big second innings score, and Madsen was dismissed for 4 in the run chase that Essex look like winning

The only one of the MLB interests that played last night, the KC Royals, beat the Astros 4-2


Tonight, Crystal Palace are 9/1 to cause an upset at Everton. Doing so would give us a real shout on the finish top half bet, and obviously help Arsenal fans too....

We also have first goalscorer positions for Manchester City and the start of the IPL   

[horseplayer]

This is a good read

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/apr/16/the-knowledge-marvin-andrews?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

 "Mercedes drivers Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg have utterly dominated the start of the 2014 Formula 1 season, taking three pole positions and three wins between them in the first three races of the season, following sweeping rule changes within the sport.

The car is about a second a lap quicker than anything else on the grid, and the question since the beginning of the season has been why?

The answer is to do with clever, innovative thinking on the engine - "a masterstroke", in the words of one leading F1 technical figure."


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26946444

[Dubai]

Did we end up placing a bet on the Everton game? Im +1 to the unders suggestion at odds against

[TightEnd]

Did we end up placing a bet on the Everton game? Im +1 to the unders suggestion at odds against

we haven't yet

give me a recommendation and Iwill do it

Under 2.5g at Ev BV ok?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-crystal-palace/over-under-2.5

or another market?

[Doobs]

NURSE, HE'S OUT OF BED AGAIN

Almost 2 years to the day, i recommended a kamikaze darts bet (with method in the madness) of 4 draws, where 3 came in and quite a few on here were on the rcmd'd lucky 15 (thin)

 http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.4575   (extra thin brags inc a tip for Andy Murray 2013 spoty, and wiggins 2012 )

Thursday is the day I've been waiting nearly 2 years for, the bookies have now twigged on that the 5/1 - 6/1's for draws were wrongly priced, but even the average 7/2-4/1's they offer now is still imo overpriced esp with the shorter format.........(noticed a few debating this on here, but i just cant keep up with the 5000 pages per day anymore)
   the starting points of darts really should be increased from the 501 (just not from a betting prespective obv), but darts players are far better these days and most legs should go with the throw.

recommend 5 draws on Thursday in a lucky 31 (or a super yankee/canadian) just a quid or 2 a line....or if you want to rule one out to make it a lucky 15 take out either MVG v Lewis or
Anderson v Lewis.....but i wouldn't coz its gonna be 5 draws on thursday and we'll all be rich

i love this bet 5 close matches i have max bet a canadian £5.20 total bet for a return of £1k+ change

can i use my one time for this please?

skybet the place to go for the draws this week.  They are 4/1 every draw.  Unfortunately we can't get on there. 

Was just thinking about this again this morning.  When we did the maths, didn't we price each game at 50/50?  Think we should be building something that is 80/20, 20/80 or similar.   I have no idea how often an even player throwing first wins, but guessing it is nearer 80/20 than 50/50.  The 50/50 model might be a good enough approximation, but not sure it is going to be good enough to calculate reasonably accurate odds.  Eg if your model suggested 7/2 was about right, then you'd be really happy taking 7/1, but a bit wary about 4/1.

We've obviously been getting the lot recently, but that might just have been down to good fortune.  Of course a more accurate model could show us 2/1 is the right price, but I am struggling to make that leap without a spreadsheet.

I am away from home, so unlikely to be able to add much to this right now.  

[Doobs]

Did we end up placing a bet on the Everton game? Im +1 to the unders suggestion at odds against

we haven't yet

give me a recommendation and Iwill do it

Under 2.5g at Ev BV ok?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-crystal-palace/over-under-2.5

or another market?

Think PP the only ones offering evens now, gone at BMU.   Will be prepared to +1 that if needed. Wouldn't go crazy as no longer odds against.  Say £30 or so?

[TightEnd]

one for the F1 crew

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/w-o-mercedes

markets now being offered without Mercedes

china this weekend, hamilton 5/6, rosberg 2/1 16/1 bar

The rest of the F1 field is a very competitive heat this year. For the other Mercedes powered teams, they have an advantage like the works Mercedes in terms of power-train, albeit it is not as integrated into the overall package as the Mercedes team itself.

Force India's excellent results from the past two races have catapulted them into previously unknown territory of second in the constructors a point ahead of third-placed McLaren. Nico Hulkenberg is second in the drivers Championship, Perez podiumed in Bahrain. The market prices up both Red Bull drivers and Alonso ahead of the Mercedes powered team though, which is interesting

We are able to back Hulkenberg at 8-1 for the race (or Perez at 10/1 if you prefer) without the two Mercedes, getting three places (one fifth the odds) each way with Ladbrokes. On their form this season this seems a fair expectation, expecting a finish of fifth or above for a return assuming both Mercedes finish in the top 3.

You could make a similar argument for Massa/Bottas at similar prices

both williams/force india seem to be in a better place for outright speed currently than ferrari, mclaren. red bull is priced on reputation, not so much current form

it strikes me that the force india/williams each way prices are interesting

[Chompy]

Scuy (who?) have priced up Luton to win League Two 2014/15.

Was chatting to a golf met yesterday and sayed I think they'll go off around 7/2 but hopefully someone will stick them in at 8/1 straight after promotion. And Scuy (who?) have done it!

If they actually sat down and priced up the whole division, they'd go nowhere near that price - only rubbish is getting relegated from League One and it's been a poor league this season. Obv we can't get on with them, but anyone that can should max it imo. Luton have a quality squad already and are likely to add.

[TightEnd]

Did we end up placing a bet on the Everton game? Im +1 to the unders suggestion at odds against

we haven't yet

give me a recommendation and Iwill do it

Under 2.5g at Ev BV ok?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-crystal-palace/over-under-2.5

or another market?

Think PP the only ones offering evens now, gone at BMU.   Will be prepared to +1 that if needed. Wouldn't go crazy as no longer odds against.  Say £30 or so?

Got a move on, as the last bookmaker offering above odds on.

 Premier League Matches Everton v Crystal Palace
16-04-2014 19:45
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals @ evens
Your Bets

Win
Single: Under 2.5 Goals @ evens
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential returns: £60.00
No: O/23146337/0000463

Total stake: £30.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £30.00

Paddy Power BET PLACED

[doubleup]

NURSE, HE'S OUT OF BED AGAIN

Almost 2 years to the day, i recommended a kamikaze darts bet (with method in the madness) of 4 draws, where 3 came in and quite a few on here were on the rcmd'd lucky 15 (thin)

 http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.4575   (extra thin brags inc a tip for Andy Murray 2013 spoty, and wiggins 2012 )

Thursday is the day I've been waiting nearly 2 years for, the bookies have now twigged on that the 5/1 - 6/1's for draws were wrongly priced, but even the average 7/2-4/1's they offer now is still imo overpriced esp with the shorter format.........(noticed a few debating this on here, but i just cant keep up with the 5000 pages per day anymore)
   the starting points of darts really should be increased from the 501 (just not from a betting prespective obv), but darts players are far better these days and most legs should go with the throw.

recommend 5 draws on Thursday in a lucky 31 (or a super yankee/canadian) just a quid or 2 a line....or if you want to rule one out to make it a lucky 15 take out either MVG v Lewis or
Anderson v Lewis.....but i wouldn't coz its gonna be 5 draws on thursday and we'll all be rich

i love this bet 5 close matches i have max bet a canadian £5.20 total bet for a return of £1k+ change

can i use my one time for this please?

skybet the place to go for the draws this week.  They are 4/1 every draw.  Unfortunately we can't get on there. 

Was just thinking about this again this morning.  When we did the maths, didn't we price each game at 50/50?  Think we should be building something that is 80/20, 20/80 or similar.   I have no idea how often an even player throwing first wins, but guessing it is nearer 80/20 than 50/50.  The 50/50 model might be a good enough approximation, but not sure it is going to be good enough to calculate reasonably accurate odds.  Eg if your model suggested 7/2 was about right, then you'd be really happy taking 7/1, but a bit wary about 4/1.

We've obviously been getting the lot recently, but that might just have been down to good fortune.  Of course a more accurate model could show us 2/1 is the right price, but I am struggling to make that leap without a spreadsheet.

I am away from home, so unlikely to be able to add much to this right now.  

This was the definitive post

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

[sonour]

Ladbrokes 4/1 offer available in shops on Friday for all Lingfield races.

Back a winner at 4/1 or more and receive a free bet to the same value.

Max £25

[Doobs]

NURSE, HE'S OUT OF BED AGAIN

Almost 2 years to the day, i recommended a kamikaze darts bet (with method in the madness) of 4 draws, where 3 came in and quite a few on here were on the rcmd'd lucky 15 (thin)

 http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.4575   (extra thin brags inc a tip for Andy Murray 2013 spoty, and wiggins 2012 )

Thursday is the day I've been waiting nearly 2 years for, the bookies have now twigged on that the 5/1 - 6/1's for draws were wrongly priced, but even the average 7/2-4/1's they offer now is still imo overpriced esp with the shorter format.........(noticed a few debating this on here, but i just cant keep up with the 5000 pages per day anymore)
   the starting points of darts really should be increased from the 501 (just not from a betting prespective obv), but darts players are far better these days and most legs should go with the throw.

recommend 5 draws on Thursday in a lucky 31 (or a super yankee/canadian) just a quid or 2 a line....or if you want to rule one out to make it a lucky 15 take out either MVG v Lewis or
Anderson v Lewis.....but i wouldn't coz its gonna be 5 draws on thursday and we'll all be rich

i love this bet 5 close matches i have max bet a canadian £5.20 total bet for a return of £1k+ change

can i use my one time for this please?

skybet the place to go for the draws this week.  They are 4/1 every draw.  Unfortunately we can't get on there. 

Was just thinking about this again this morning.  When we did the maths, didn't we price each game at 50/50?  Think we should be building something that is 80/20, 20/80 or similar.   I have no idea how often an even player throwing first wins, but guessing it is nearer 80/20 than 50/50.  The 50/50 model might be a good enough approximation, but not sure it is going to be good enough to calculate reasonably accurate odds.  Eg if your model suggested 7/2 was about right, then you'd be really happy taking 7/1, but a bit wary about 4/1.

We've obviously been getting the lot recently, but that might just have been down to good fortune.  Of course a more accurate model could show us 2/1 is the right price, but I am struggling to make that leap without a spreadsheet.

I am away from home, so unlikely to be able to add much to this right now.  

This was the definitive post

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

Saves me a job!  Haven't checked it, but looks good to me.

[DungBeetle]

one for the F1 crew

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/w-o-mercedes

markets now being offered without Mercedes

china this weekend, hamilton 5/6, rosberg 2/1 16/1 bar

The rest of the F1 field is a very competitive heat this year. For the other Mercedes powered teams, they have an advantage like the works Mercedes in terms of power-train, albeit it is not as integrated into the overall package as the Mercedes team itself.

Force India's excellent results from the past two races have catapulted them into previously unknown territory of second in the constructors a point ahead of third-placed McLaren. Nico Hulkenberg is second in the drivers Championship, Perez podiumed in Bahrain. The market prices up both Red Bull drivers and Alonso ahead of the Mercedes powered team though, which is interesting

We are able to back Hulkenberg at 8-1 for the race (or Perez at 10/1 if you prefer) without the two Mercedes, getting three places (one fifth the odds) each way with Ladbrokes. On their form this season this seems a fair expectation, expecting a finish of fifth or above for a return assuming both Mercedes finish in the top 3.

You could make a similar argument for Massa/Bottas at similar prices

both williams/force india seem to be in a better place for outright speed currently than ferrari, mclaren. red bull is priced on reputation, not so much current form

it strikes me that the force india/williams each way prices are interesting

I'd be inclined to agree.

Sad times though that we have a without Mercs market in just the 4th race