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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331386 times)
tikay
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« Reply #91320 on: November 27, 2014, 10:58:55 AM »

thanksgiving thoughts

1

the Cowboys are 3 point favourites at home to the Eagles

Total points 54

Should be a high scoring game. Perfectly possible both teams go over 30 points

Eagles 27th in D, Cowboys 16th in D but struggle against the pass

Both teams lots of offensive weapons

Cowboys tend to be bad favourites. Typically supported by public bets, and not a great home team. this year 5-0 on the road and 3-3 at home.

No particular reason the Cowboys should be favourite here. they also have a scheduling disadvantage, playing Sunday night late, getting home 6am Monday and turning round and playing 72 hours later

Another issue is the Cowboys are down three starters on special teams due to injuries on Sunday including the punt protector and the leading teams tackler. The Eagles have 10 non offensive TDs on returns, and have a clear advantage in this area for this game

Suggestions for discussion

Eagles outright 6/4+

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner

Eagles +3

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner

Overs on Points is a bit "joe versus pro"/ice-creamy but it feels like a shootout to me

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/total-points

TD scorer is tricky, so many runners in the field. Speculatively like Jordan Matthews because the Cowboys struggle against slot receivers

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/first-touchdown-scorer


2.

Bears at Lions

In theory the Lions offense ashould be high-powered but it has cooled off a lot in the last four weeks

Since their 35-points in the season opener, the Lions haven’t scored more than 24 points in a single game. In the last two weeks, the team has totaled 15 points, failing to score a touchdown.

the defense is very stout against the run

The Bears are inconsistent, in part because Cutler can be inaccurate

the Bears defense is poor, and injury hit. The Bears rank near the bottom of the league in defense, and only the Jaguars allow more than their opponents’ scoring average of 27.5 points per game

defensive captain Lance Briggs is doubtful would be a big loss

The Lions are 7 point favourites.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-detroit-lions/point-spread

unbackable at that i think but the Bears are an unreliable betting prospect

tempted by points unders 47.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-detroit-lions/total-points

two teams know each other well, divisional rivalry, comparatively easy to scheme against each other on a short week


3

Seahawks at 49ers

might as well be a play off game

two hard nosed defensive led teams, points could be at a premium

this is reflected in points quotes around 40, by the far the lowest of the three games

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-points

Seahawks +1 shows how tough it is to call

the Seahawks were knocked black and blue by the Cardinals on Sunday, Wlson was sacked 8 times

this is a short turnround to this game after that and would expect them to run Lynch over 25 times this game

would expect him to go over 80+ yards rushing

in part this is because the 49ers might have the NFL’s best pass defense, ranking first in opposing passer rating (74.1), tied for first in opposing completion percentage (57.2) and second in passing yards allowed per game (207.2), and Seattle lack talent in the receivers...main offensive weapons are Lynch and Wilson running

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch



Thanks Tighty.

I know we should not "force" bets, we should always await "value", but I'd be quite keen to have a little interest in each game tonight, so I can ferl part of the occasion. Don't mind if Fred swerves them completely, but I'd love a few little bets off-account if need be.  I'll probably back some of Neil's BE stuff tonight, too.

Only want £20 per bet sorta thing, 1 or 2 bets per game.

What would you suggest?

It's such a great night, & I'm still quite new to NFL, but I can't afford to miss such occasions.
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« Reply #91321 on: November 27, 2014, 11:05:44 AM »

Neil's thurday stuff is free and will be at http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/49

no idea if he is on the same lines as my ideas.

perhaps bet his ideas and confirm when placed on here, unless there are any other thoguhts from anyone before hand
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« Reply #91322 on: November 27, 2014, 11:34:14 AM »

Neil's thurday stuff is free and will be at http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/49

no idea if he is on the same lines as my ideas.

perhaps bet his ideas and confirm when placed on here, unless there are any other thoguhts from anyone before hand

Thanks.

He has not Posted them yet (as far as I can see) but I'll have a look later, to give him time to carry out his Ambo duties first, obv.
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« Reply #91323 on: November 27, 2014, 12:29:53 PM »

Fred has Mikaela Shriffin racing her second GS of the season on Saturday in Aspen.

http://www.fis-ski.com/alpine-skiing/leader-board/giant-slalom/

Going well in training



although a touch concerned her focus has slipped in looking to race Super-G later in the year



http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/womens-alpine:-aspen-giant-slalom/winner

Viktoria Rebensburg looks value at 10/1. Last three years her results at Aspen were 3 1 2. Off the pace in her first run in Solden, but one of the best times in the second.




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« Reply #91324 on: November 27, 2014, 12:39:54 PM »

Neil has tipped unders lions/bears

Eagles +3.5, and over 55.5

no bet 49ers/Seahawks

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/49
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« Reply #91325 on: November 27, 2014, 12:40:44 PM »

NBA Weds Update

Pretty incredible night results wise with all 12 favs winning straight up prior to the late West coast game in LA with at least 10 favs covering the spread (wasn't entirely sure on the hcaps for some of the games).  I wouldn't like to see how much 'mug' cash is rolling onto Memphis to beat the Lakers in the late game with some books with accas etc.  There will be some 'mug customer' only books doing their absolutes tonight on the NBA.

Toronto, Portland, LA Clippers, Cleveland, Dallas and SA Spurs all won.  Houston, Brooklyn and OKC also won which doesn't help the divisional bets for Toronto, Portland and SA Spurs.  We, alongside the layers tonight, could do with Memphis starting to lose in the late game so the Spurs can make some ground up on them in the ultra tough SW division.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/3

Assist market.  Rondo didn't play tonight.  Paul had 7 assists, Wall 7 assists and Lawson 11 assists  Good night overall long term.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2015/seasontype/2

Rookie of the year.  The match up between the two favs in this market ended with both players having big games.  Parker 11 points 7 rebounds, 6 assists,1 steal and 1 block as his Bucks won again to continue their surprisingly good start to the season.  Wiggins had 14 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and 1 assist for the Twolves.  Looking more and more like the award will be won by one of these two.

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400578510

Davies didn't play in the MVP market.

One mental factor about sport which i always find interesting is players playing against their old clubs.  I think this is especially interesting when they left on bad terms.  Dallas and NY Knicks each had a player who played for the other team last season.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400578506

Chandler left the Knicks on really bad terms last year being blamed for a lot of their issues.  He is a very emotional guy and had a huge 'in your face' type of game tonight against them with 17 points 25 rebounds and 2 blocks, way above his averages.  I think we need to be looking for Chandler over bets on his stats when they play the return game in NY later in the season.  Could be a really profitable betting spot.  Calderon, for the Knicks, was equally fired up tonight and way above his usual level making 7-9 of his 3 point shots and finishing with 21 points 10 rebounds and 4 assists.

No games tomorrow night as it is Thanksgiving and the NFL had a national TV triple header.  The NBA has this holiday off to avoid a pointless ratings clash as they play 5 games on Xmas day live on national TV.


Memphis did indeed come back from trailing at ht to beat the Lakers and all 13 favs won last night in the NBA. Quite incredible night.
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« Reply #91326 on: November 27, 2014, 12:45:22 PM »

Fred has Mikaela Shriffin racing her second GS of the season on Saturday in Aspen.

http://www.fis-ski.com/alpine-skiing/leader-board/giant-slalom/

Going well in training



although a touch concerned her focus has slipped in looking to race Super-G later in the year



http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/womens-alpine:-aspen-giant-slalom/winner

Viktoria Rebensburg looks value at 10/1. Last three years her results at Aspen were 3 1 2. Off the pace in her first run in Solden, but one of the best times in the second.








    Giant Slalom (Aspen/USA)
    Antepost Winner (Others on request)
    Pick: Viktoria Rebensburg (GER) 11.00

Total stake 10.00 GBP
Possible winnings 110.00 GBP

bwin
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« Reply #91327 on: November 27, 2014, 12:50:53 PM »

Event Information:    Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
American
2014-11-27 17:30:00
Market:    Total points
Selection:    Under @ 10/11
Handicap:    +47.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000787
Placed at:    12:18 27/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £22.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £22.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £22.00
   
   
   £42.00


 Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (Point Spread - Match) Odds: 20/23 Stake: 23.00 Possible Return:  43.00

bvic

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Total Points
   Over 54.5    10/11    
Total stake   £ 22.00
Estimated return   £ 42.00
Full stake   £ 22.00
Full estimated return   £ 42.00

betfred


i have added mine, which i like

Event Information:    Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-11-28 01:25:00
Market:    Rushing Yards - M Lynch
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +73.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000788
Placed at:    12:22 27/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £22.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £22.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £22.00
   
   
   £42.00

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« Reply #91328 on: November 27, 2014, 01:02:31 PM »

I have to go to Manchester tomorrow tikay so not sure when i will be around late in the day to stick it up , but after "Aubosson" last weekend its Neil's intention to do the Hennessey for Newbury Saturday

The Ambassador describes it succintly to me "Very good e/w race"

There's no reason why the weekly blog tips can't go on here, they are free to read, no log in required

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #91329 on: November 27, 2014, 01:18:32 PM »

Darts

Players Championship Finals start tomorrow (and its only 20 days until the wiorld championships i think)

any thoughts on outrights/sub-markets etc?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/players-championships

http://www1.skysports.com/darts/news/12040/9578160/players-championship-finals-draw
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« Reply #91330 on: November 27, 2014, 01:20:33 PM »

Fleur East is odds on across the board for X Factor

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/winning-act

our two losers are out to 5/1 third favourite and 12/1 outsider of 5
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tikay
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« Reply #91331 on: November 27, 2014, 01:25:55 PM »

I have to go to Manchester tomorrow tikay so not sure when i will be around late in the day to stick it up , but after "Aubosson" last weekend its Neil's intention to do the Hennessey for Newbury Saturday

The Ambassador describes it succintly to me "Very good e/w race"

There's no reason why the weekly blog tips can't go on here, they are free to read, no log in required

 Click to see full-size image.


I have to go to St Pancras tomorrow.....Wink

All noted, will sort it out.

I got a better price than Neil last week, too. Just saying, like.

I dropped him an e-Mail to thank him for the tip, & casually mentioned I had greened out 1 fence from home. I got the impression from his reply that he was not impressed, & his language was very non-Ambo.
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« Reply #91332 on: November 27, 2014, 01:27:02 PM »

Event Information:    Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
American
2014-11-27 17:30:00
Market:    Total points
Selection:    Under @ 10/11
Handicap:    +47.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000787
Placed at:    12:18 27/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £22.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £22.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £22.00
   
   
   £42.00


 Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (Point Spread - Match) Odds: 20/23 Stake: 23.00 Possible Return:  43.00

bvic

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Total Points
   Over 54.5    10/11    
Total stake   £ 22.00
Estimated return   £ 42.00
Full stake   £ 22.00
Full estimated return   £ 42.00

betfred


i have added mine, which i like

Event Information:    Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-11-28 01:25:00
Market:    Rushing Yards - M Lynch
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +73.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000788
Placed at:    12:22 27/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £22.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £22.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £22.00
   
   
   £42.00



Well done Rich, that's perfect, just what I was hoping for.
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« Reply #91333 on: November 27, 2014, 02:54:29 PM »

Fleur East is odds on across the board for X Factor

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/winning-act

our two losers are out to 5/1 third favourite and 12/1 outsider of 5

The other big mover has been Chompy's new favourite boy band.  Earlier in the week they were out with Lauren at 12 or 14/1, now they are down to a best priced 9/1. I'd say shorter is more likely than longer.  Good news for the 33/1 bet and for those who have our Cheryl to be first judge to lose all her acts.

Can't think why Tony would want NFL bets with all this excitement on Saturday.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #91334 on: November 27, 2014, 02:58:50 PM »

Darts

Players Championship Finals start tomorrow (and its only 20 days until the wiorld championships i think)

any thoughts on outrights/sub-markets etc?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/players-championships

http://www1.skysports.com/darts/news/12040/9578160/players-championship-finals-draw

Those seedings throw up some fascinating sections - can't quite believe Lewis is favourite to win his section considering current form.

Ian White won a floor tournament at the weekend and must be some value to win Quarter 3 at 8/1 (considering Lewis and Chizzy play each other in the first round).  White does not have the best TV pedigree but the price is generous.

In the same vain Kim Huybrechts at 8/1 with Barney and Van Gerwen playing each other first round - Van Gerwen is starting to shown signs of life after a quiet back end of the year, but of course Kim beat him in spectacular fashion 2 weeks ago.

Personally I will be happy to oppose Taylor as the format is Semi and Final in one night after player your quarter final in the afternoon - although think his game is much better then a year ago he has shown signs of tiredness in long games.  Wades draw is probably the kindest of the other contenders so would take the 12's if available.

For your considerations I would suggest

£10 Kim Huybrechts at 7/1 to win Quarter 3 @ 7/1 Bet Victor

£10 Ian White to win Quarter 4 @ 8/1 with Bet Victor

£10 James Wade to Win @ 12/1 with Sporting Bet or Boyles




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Shit post Nakor, such a clown.

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