Tips for Tikay

[jakally]

Who had their first ever bet on the national?  Mine was 22 years ago in 1994.  Moorcroft boy.  Is it still the shop window to attract new punters that it used to be?  Twenty years ago it was the biggest day of the year by a mile.  Not sure it would even be the biggest punting day of the year at all now.

My Dad asked me for a horse for the '75 National when I was 7. Had L'Escargot, and he put 10p on for me. Thrilled when it won, and even happier when he gave me my winnings, 50p.
Out of curiosity just checked the SP, which appears to be 13/2. Turns out you can't trust anyone!

[doubleup]

Who had their first ever bet on the national?  Mine was 22 years ago in 1994.  Moorcroft boy.  Is it still the shop window to attract new punters that it used to be?  Twenty years ago it was the biggest day of the year by a mile.  Not sure it would even be the biggest punting day of the year at all now.

My Dad asked me for a horse for the '75 National when I was 7. Had L'Escargot, and he put 10p on for me. Thrilled when it won, and even happier when he gave me my winnings, 50p.
Out of curiosity just checked the SP, which appears to be 13/2. Turns out you can't trust anyone!

you should have paid the tax innit

[BigAdz]

Who had their first ever bet on the national?  Mine was 22 years ago in 1994.  Moorcroft boy.  Is it still the shop window to attract new punters that it used to be?  Twenty years ago it was the biggest day of the year by a mile.  Not sure it would even be the biggest punting day of the year at all now.

My Dad asked me for a horse for the '75 National when I was 7. Had L'Escargot, and he put 10p on for me. Thrilled when it won, and even happier when he gave me my winnings, 50p.
Out of curiosity just checked the SP, which appears to be 13/2. Turns out you can't trust anyone!

Ben Nevis back in 1980. Allowed to because our dog was called Ben.

Once a guesser......

[horseplayer]

Had the pleasure of watching this man play today

http://www.afcb.co.uk/news/article/match-report-afc-bournemouth-3-0-ready-under-21s-3044075.aspx

Very impressed not pulled up to many trees in three loan spells but might do well for someone on loan next season

[cish n fhips]

Hideki Matsuyama..

Although ive backed him for the win and places i think ive possibly
found a gem of a bet.
Hes playing well and won in pheonix in Feb
He pretty much floats about in the top 20 in the Rankings.(14th atm)
5th in the masters last year.

So Ladjokes and Choral have him at 6/5 for top 20 finish




Happy for views of others but id suggest £50 and add another option for the book.

GL Guys.

 need some help on this please

HM has 6 top 20's in his last ten majors, 3 of 4 last year

5 of last 10 events in the top 20


what i don't know is if 6/5 would be seen as value or not?

tyia.
 

Think the 5/4 on yoonibet/eightx3/5red is ok.  He is very consistent but only concern is he has had a couple of injury withdrawals this year.

I think i like the fact  that he generaly makes most cuts.
57 out of 68 over 4 seasons.With him being being so young he srives
to do well in the majors and has openly said the masters is his
favourite. I couldnt have him above 4/5 considdering the shorter prices
of others shorter in tge market.
So better than double money with 20 places.
Its a deffinate for me.
Maybe not one people will judge as vale.But tbh other that a
complete nightmare im expecting to collect.

[horseplayer]

888888 still ool with joe bryan for some reason at 29/1

if anything the midfield is more defensive tonight than usual so even better bet if anyone can get on worth doing so

[DropTheHammer]

888888 still ool with joe bryan for some reason at 29/1

if anything the midfield is more defensive tonight than usual so even better bet if anyone can get on worth doing so

If people could spread their bets between 888 & Unibet it may make this price last longer for when it next cops.

[Peter-27]

Bahrain grand prix   vettel   5/1   15   0   N   -15
Bahrain Grand Prix Top 6 Finish   perez   9/4   25   0   N   -25
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race   gutierrez   11/10   20   42   Y   22
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race   grosjean   6/5   20   0   N   -20
double team points finish   renault   20/1   5   0   N   -5
formula e long beach   bird   10/1   10   0   N   -10
Bahrain gp points finish   Palmer   6/1   10   0   N   -10
Formula e long beach   buemi   11/2   25   0   N   -25

-£98 Total

hopefully better luck in China in a fortnight

Rubbish weekend for these bets, although the spreads worked well for those who got on there.

The Vettel, Palmer and Renault bets may well (and should) be voided because Vettel and Palmer had a DNS.

Cant win em all Peter

You are still a massive winner for fred so chin up

I cleaned up on those spreads you put up Peter.  Cheers!  How do you see the season long spreads going?  Williams take a hit presumably?  Force India looked lacking pace as well.

Awesome!

You know what, lap one was so chaotic that pretty much every car in the field was carrying some degree of damage. That, coupled with the volume of strategies is making data analysis an absolute nightmare. I've been looking through timing data for around four hours and am not even close to deducing what exactly happened during that race. If this is how the rest of the season will be, we're in for an incredible, albeit complicated, season.

Both Williams and both Force India's lacked pace due to damage. I'm still working through the data, and should hopefully be able to draw conclusions over the coming days. It looks like buying Haas on the spreads wouldn't be a bad move right now, although I still need to be more certain before making that move.

.

I bought Grosjean pre season and am up about 50 points and just topped up on Haas a few hours ago as I think they are still too low.  Would welcome your thoughts when you've taken a look though as might adjust further.

That bet looks pretty good as things currently stand. It's a bit hard to tell with any team at the moment given that Australia was massively disrupted by the red flag, and Bahrain was skewed by multiple collisions on the opening lap causing serious damage to most cars. I suspect when we have a clean race, we'll see the Haas drivers at the tail end of the points. I wouldn't personally be buying Haas on the spreads just yet, but maybe in one or two races.

I saw in "Ted's notebook" that Eric Bouillier said he thought Jenson would have come 7th if he hadn't had a failure.   Did you reach a similar conclusion to that?  Seemed a bit optimistic to me.

Yes, I saw that too. The simulations suggest that there were certain situations that could see Button finish as high as 5th. However, the convergence (most likely scenario) appeared to be 13th, according to my data.

[arbboy]

888888 still ool with joe bryan for some reason at 29/1

if anything the midfield is more defensive tonight than usual so even better bet if anyone can get on worth doing so

If people could spread their bets between 888 & Unibet it may make this price last longer for when it next cops.

Makes no difference.  The same machine controls the whole operation.

[DungBeetle]

Peter Haas have gone up 12 points since they opened after the last GP.  Plenty of money going back there.  As you say this may be too many people judging when we have yet to have an event free Grand Prix.

Don't really have a view now at the new price either way.

[horseplayer]

There looks a good opportunity here

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/sefton-novices-hurdle/winner

Yanworth the ante post fav is weak on the machine with enough (not fortunes) happy to lay it at 5/2+. This suggests to me he misses this. The obvious one would be BALLYDINE comes here fresh trainers time of year and the blue on oddschecker tonight suggests a likely runner.

As unsure of final entries/field size suggest a small win bet at

SUGGEST £20 BALLYDINE 8S various (not nrnb)

[BigAdz]

There looks a good opportunity here

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/sefton-novices-hurdle/winner

Yanworth the ante post fav is weak on the machine with enough (not fortunes) happy to lay it at 5/2+. This suggests to me he misses this. The obvious one would be BALLYDINE comes here fresh trainers time of year and the blue on oddschecker tonight suggests a likely runner.

As unsure of final entries/field size suggest a small win bet at

SUGGEST £20 BALLYDINE 8S various (not nrnb)

That's interesting. I was told to have a bet on Mystical Knight in the Sefton, who is another JP horse. Had forgotten about it until just looked at the race. Will shift the market significantly if Yanworth goes elsewhere.(not a recommend for TFT btw, not had a good chance to look yet)

[Chompy]

There looks a good opportunity here

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/sefton-novices-hurdle/winner

Yanworth the ante post fav is weak on the machine with enough (not fortunes) happy to lay it at 5/2+. This suggests to me he misses this. The obvious one would be BALLYDINE comes here fresh trainers time of year and the blue on oddschecker tonight suggests a likely runner.

As unsure of final entries/field size suggest a small win bet at

SUGGEST £20 BALLYDINE 8S various (not nrnb)

Like ^^^



"He will be one of about four horses heading to Aintree for the three day meeting. On Thursday, Snow Leopardess will run in the Mares Bumper, then on Friday Ballydine runs in the big Novice hurdle and finally,along with Pendra, I plan to run Coologue on Saturday. Like at Cheltenham last month, races at Aintree are nearly impossible to win, but I do think we have a couple of chances. The best could possibly be Ballydine in the Grade 1 Novice over 3m. He was about fourth favourite before I pulled him out of the Albert Bartlett last month and I have kept this race as his target ever since. Whereas most his main rivals will have had tough races last month at Cheltenham we are fresh and I really hope he can go very close."

[Ironside]

SPL update

celtic now 5 points and 31 goals ahead of aberdeen with both teams having 6 games left to play
after this weekend the league is split in half so both teams will have a similar run in

adam rooney could be back this weekend but likely another week before he is playing again

he is currently tied in 2nd spot in the top scorer market with 19 goals griffiths is 7 goals ahead
moult is in 4th spot and is 4 goals behind

we might get a sweat out of both bets yet

sweat on outright really comes down to when the fixture is set between aberdeen and celtic

[DungBeetle]

I know it's early to be thinking of next year's football, but 2 teams I think will go off a lot shorter in the championship are:

Sheff Weds 22-1 (Boyle/Coral)
Brighton 33-1 (999/unibet/32Red)

Wednesday have just sacked Gray so I imagine they will be going for a bigger name appointment and have money to spend.  Brighton have a full pre-season under Hughton and always have reasonable resource due to their high attendances - I'd expect them to have a clear out as well after a wretched run last time out.

What really drives this is I'm a bit non-plussed by most of the teams at the top of the market.  I still like Derby, but for me Hull, Burnley, Wolves, Forest and QPR are all HIGHLY opposable at their prices.  Boro will have to deal with the playoff final defeat syndrome (see Derby 2015, Watford 2014) and they won't have Bamford.  Last year the top 2 in Bournemouth and Watford were fancy prices in early summer.

We are speculating that they build wisely over the summer, but I think the selections might go off 10-1 and 16-1 respectively.    

I'm just throwing it out there for discussion, and you can't eat value but I like a book of:

£20 Sheff Wed to win league at 22-1
£10 Brighton to win league at 33-1
£50 Sheff Wed to be promoted at 8-1
£20 Brighton to be promoted at 10-1

I know there are a few Owl/Seagull fans on here so perhaps they can tell me if my confidence is misguided!

May well still end up with nothing but a good set of results for these tickets (sameless results based after timing I know.......)