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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333447 times)
tikay
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« Reply #129150 on: July 19, 2017, 04:54:56 PM »

Stoke City

Losing players to teams around them in the PL (Arnautovic, Walters plus Martins Indi has left) with not much coming in (Zouma from Chelsea on loan is one)

The PL has more depth, even mid table sides spending significant sums this summer. Stoke under the Coates family are run somewhat more parsimoniously

Stoke had a poor start last season and recovered.

Hughes is second favourite for first depature

Shaqiri apart (Butland as well),anything in this squad that suggests they won't be bottom six?

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/stoke-city/kader/verein/512/saison_id/2017

they were always more than the sum of their parts under Pulis, and just about under Hughes but is this the season they might be at risk?

If so, does 7-1 to go down appeal?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Calling Arbboy!  It does look bad for them, doesn't it?

My instinct is that Bournemouth are big too at a simlar price, though Defoe must be a positive?  I wasn't at all convinced Swansea were the best value, given their form at the end of last season must have been in line with the likes of some of the lower top half sides.

I would add that I haven't looked at the comings and goings nearly enough to be listened to on this.

Also added Begovic and Ake (on loan last yr) from Chelsea.
No departures to date.
Generally very settled and happy squad under Howe. About to build a new larger stadium next door.....so cant afford to go down  Smiley

The Jack Wilshere episode is closed completely, I assume?
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« Reply #129151 on: July 19, 2017, 05:04:24 PM »

Isn't Stoke @ 7-1 the ideal trading spot?

Start badly, Hughes comes under pressure, gets the sack, is replaced by Alan Pardew. Lay back for freeroll...
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« Reply #129152 on: July 19, 2017, 05:29:34 PM »

What do we think about PSG @ 20/1 to win the Champs League?
There is increased specualtion that PSG has triggered Neymars buy out. If he signed, their price would immediately contract (significantly?)
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/40652803
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner
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« Reply #129153 on: July 19, 2017, 05:31:39 PM »

What do we think about PSG @ 20/1 to win the Champs League?
There is increased specualtion that PSG has triggered Neymars buy out. If he signed, their price would immediately contract (significantly?)
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/40652803
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

Denials all over the place today though.
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« Reply #129154 on: July 19, 2017, 05:43:48 PM »

What do we think about PSG @ 20/1 to win the Champs League?
There is increased specualtion that PSG has triggered Neymars buy out. If he signed, their price would immediately contract (significantly?)
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/40652803
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

Denials all over the place today though.

If PSG trigger it, Barca can deny all they want, it makes no difference. If the player wants to leave, he leaves.
PSG are a last 8 Champs League team anyway, so you still have a sweat but if Neymar signs their price goes from 20/1 -> 12/1(?)
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« Reply #129155 on: July 19, 2017, 05:54:47 PM »

Isn't Stoke @ 7-1 the ideal trading spot?

Start badly, Hughes comes under pressure, gets the sack, is replaced by Alan Pardew. Lay back for freeroll...

If no objections think we should bang in £200 @ 7-1. Not my bet though. Worst-case scenario we should be able to close it out for a small loss.
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« Reply #129156 on: July 19, 2017, 07:20:27 PM »

If there's room for one more on The Open portfolio I think Fred should have a few quid EW on former Open Champion Louis Oosthuizen who has had a steady season banking over $2M already including 2nd at The Players' and seemingly free of his persistent back-problems. We will also be able to stick it in Tikay's eye for labelling him a "one hit wonder".

Recommend £10EW Louis Oosthuizen @55/1 in a couple of spots.

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« Reply #129157 on: July 19, 2017, 07:45:10 PM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/top-scot

My old mate from 365 who is head of golf put this up today as his best bet in the event in 'enemy lines' in the RP preview.  Ramsay 4/1 bald.  Can we still get on at bald and take the 4/1?  If so £100 win please.
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« Reply #129158 on: July 19, 2017, 08:00:47 PM »

Stoke City

Losing players to teams around them in the PL (Arnautovic, Walters plus Martins Indi has left) with not much coming in (Zouma from Chelsea on loan is one)

The PL has more depth, even mid table sides spending significant sums this summer. Stoke under the Coates family are run somewhat more parsimoniously

Stoke had a poor start last season and recovered.

Hughes is second favourite for first depature

Shaqiri apart (Butland as well),anything in this squad that suggests they won't be bottom six?

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/stoke-city/kader/verein/512/saison_id/2017

they were always more than the sum of their parts under Pulis, and just about under Hughes but is this the season they might be at risk?

If so, does 7-1 to go down appeal?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Trying to see this objectively but Stoke didn't have a bad start last year relative to the strength of the early fixtures.  This season will be the same.  They recovered from their 'lol bad start' because they had much easier fixtures later in the season. They won't be a fav to win any of their first 8 games so the 'slow start' theories will hopefully appear again so i can back them at 1/2 again to stay up in the middle of September.  Last season's poor performance was without the first choice keeper/England's future number 1 and the player of the season the year before.  Pretty safe to say this season Butland will add numerous points to our tally staying injury free.

Stoke routinely do their transfer business later rather than early.  There is no way Arnie is being sold for £24m without a plan to upgrade and replace him.  Walters isn't a loss at his age.  Indi wasn't even our player and we had no say over whether he came back or not.  There is plenty of talent in the squad outside of the two show ponies (Arnie and Shaq) who turn up one game in 4.  If i had to sell one for £24m it would be Arnie every time.  He is massively over rated for me but what does £24m buy you nowadays?  I still think Crouch should be starting for Stoke with Allen and Adam in midfield.  If you want to back Stoke to go down i would suggest doing it pre season and you should easily be able to free roll it after a few games. 

Is it value at 7/1?  I think Huddersfield should probably be a 1/3 shot to go down.  There is one space gone.  Swansea could be in total chaos if the wrong players leave.  Burnley going to run like god again at home this season like last season and do nothing away from home just to survive?  Brighton really got the quality to stay in this league?  The one way i would attack Stoke if you don't like them would try to get odds against newcastle v Stoke in a match bet based on the relegation prices.

Brighton would be one of my favs to go down, looked average at best in a few games I saw 2nd half of the season
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« Reply #129159 on: July 19, 2017, 08:02:10 PM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/top-scot

My old mate from 365 who is head of golf put this up today as his best bet in the event in 'enemy lines' in the RP preview.  Ramsay 4/1 bald.  Can we still get on at bald and take the 4/1?  If so £100 win please.

Tried this, but was restricted to £25, so Fred has £25 @ 4/1
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« Reply #129160 on: July 19, 2017, 08:33:48 PM »

If there's room for one more on The Open portfolio I think Fred should have a few quid EW on former Open Champion Louis Oosthuizen who has had a steady season banking over $2M already including 2nd at The Players' and seemingly free of his persistent back-problems. We will also be able to stick it in Tikay's eye for labelling him a "one hit wonder".

Recommend £10EW Louis Oosthuizen @55/1 in a couple of spots.



This was my bet.  He is sublime at best. 

Neil has put some up on bettingemporium if people are interested.  Always worth a read.

FWIW I disagree with him that you can't go wrong with a fifth first 10.  Shy are pretty short a few when I looked and the extra places lose value on most players people are going to back (ie first is more likely than 2nd.  2nd is more likely than 3rd... 9th is more likely than 10th) and you get a fifth rather than a quarter.  Still they are the best place terms on the market, but don't give away too much on the win price to bet with them. 

Interesting baldfred have two books with different prices.  One book is quarter first 6.  Other is quarter first 8.  Quarter first 8 is likely better than a fifth first 10 if the price is the same as the sky 10 place book.  But same warning, don't give away too much on the win price.  Certainly daft to take quarter first 8 over a fifth first 8 if the price is 20% less. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #129161 on: July 19, 2017, 08:50:34 PM »

Should we be lumping on the 4-dog here in The Grand Prix?

He's just taken an enormous dump in the middle of the track on parade - is it a sign?
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« Reply #129162 on: July 19, 2017, 08:53:21 PM »

Should we be lumping on the 4-dog here in The Grand Prix?

He's just taken an enormous dump in the middle of the track on parade - is it a sign?

Left all its staying power on the track!  Couldn't get home!
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« Reply #129163 on: July 19, 2017, 11:22:24 PM »

What would you price us to be bottom/ bottom 3 after 8 games? Trying to get on a few quid on using these request a bet things a few bookies seem to offer now.

Home to the Arse, United, Chelsea & Southampton
Away at Everton, WBA, Newcastle & Man city

Stoke will not be a fav to win any of those first 8 games.  Maybe close to a flip at home to Soton depending on the summer dealings.

They will be 5/1 dogs at home to Ars, Manure and Chelski roughly.  Probably a 2/1 slight dog at home to Soton.  12/1 away at Man C, 7/2 away at WBA and Newcastle and 6/1 away at Everton.

In points terms they will be in for roughly 0.7 points as a 5/1 home dog in those 3 games.  Soton 1.3 points.  Man City 0.4 points.  WBA/Newc 0.9 points each.  Everton 0.6 points.  Therefore expected points roughly in first 8 games is around 6.2 points.  So when Stoke have had a awful start according to the media and sit on 7 points after 8 games looking like they are struggling remember they are less likely to go down than they were pre season because they will be ahead of the EV curve.  The price will not relate to this however.  Hopefully they will be sat on 3 points (only 3 behind expectations) and it will be 'another terrible start from Hughes and his slow starters and we will be sub 2/1 to go down.

My post on the Stoke thread earlier in the summer regarding 'lol bad starters'

Did you get anywhere with these arb? I tried the request a bet to be bottom by October but was told it wasn't being offered.
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« Reply #129164 on: July 20, 2017, 12:09:58 AM »

Having a mooch at the football markets and like the look of a couple of things.

Lacazette 12/1 top scorer. Will he be Arsenal's main man up top even if Sanchez stays? He'd need to adapt pretty quickly to the PL but he's a quality forward with a very solid record in France, and not gonna be short on chances playing in a creative Arsenal XI.

Alli at 50s...netted 18 last season, just 2 goals off placing. Of those above him, Costa is seemingly gone, question marks over where Sanchez is plying his trade next season, Aguero has stiff competition with Jesus for the main spot at City (and never completes a season due to injuries!), and Lukaku has gone from main man at Everton to a more moderate fish in a moderate pool with a huge price tag attached. Kane is still obv Kane. No-one too troublesome arriving so far; Lacazette will probs be in amongst it, Morata isn't particularly prolific. Think there is scope for an e/w poke at 50/1.

Was gonna say West Ham at 2/1 for a top 10 finish, but in the time it's taken me to write ^^^ (curse my slow chunky fingers), they've dipped to 6/4, bit too skinny for my liking. Bournemouth at 13/5 has some appeal, think the top 7 picks itself, leaving a clutch of clubs grappling for the other 3 spots; Leicester, Soton, WHU, Bournemouth, and maybe Newcastle and WBA. Bournemouth have made some pretty significant investment and Defoe will get them 15+ goals alone. Look a pretty settled unit under Howe and consolidating their top half finish from last season is the next progressive step. Don't think it's beyond that group of players.

Edit...can still get WHU at two spades via 'top half finish', or 7/4 via the 'top 10 finish'. Whereas Bournemouth are 13/5 for 'top 10 finish' but 5/2 for 'top half finish'. Gotta love bookies.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2017, 12:21:39 AM by hhyftrftdr » Logged

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