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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333788 times)
Chompy
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« Reply #136365 on: July 20, 2019, 01:22:10 PM »

Is there an argument for backing him to win at 4-1 Tal? Geraint makes him favourite...

Elsewhere, two firms now up with PL handicaps, Star Sports and Sky. Some major differences here and Star are correct for me. Anyone who thinks the pack won't be closing massively on the big two this season should head to Sky. Hard to knock either City or Liverpool out of the four, EW @ 15-1
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« Reply #136366 on: July 20, 2019, 02:43:12 PM »

Is there an argument for backing him to win at 4-1 Tal? Geraint makes him favourite...

...

I don't know enough to have a view on that price. Would think Team Ineos expect to do enough up and down the mountains to get one of their guys over the line, but can't tell you whether 4/1 is value.
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« Reply #136367 on: July 20, 2019, 10:15:36 PM »

Is there an argument for backing him to win at 4-1 Tal? Geraint makes him favourite...

...

I don't know enough to have a view on that price. Would think Team Ineos expect to do enough up and down the mountains to get one of their guys over the line, but can't tell you whether 4/1 is value.

Maybe it was, he is 11/10 now.   Think you should still be proud, not often you get a bet that loses because it is too good.  There might still be hope of a place?  He could get a few high points finishes in the mountains fighting for yellow.   
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Tal
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« Reply #136368 on: July 20, 2019, 10:46:18 PM »

Is there an argument for backing him to win at 4-1 Tal? Geraint makes him favourite...

...

I don't know enough to have a view on that price. Would think Team Ineos expect to do enough up and down the mountains to get one of their guys over the line, but can't tell you whether 4/1 is value.

Maybe it was, he is 11/10 now.   Think you should still be proud, not often you get a bet that loses because it is too good.  There might still be hope of a place?  He could get a few high points finishes in the mountains fighting for yellow.   

This was the main premise of the bet, so, yes, still live. He's up to 9th in the standings now.

Trouble is he will be sitting in the peleton a lot, rather than chasing points. Stage wins do get points, though, and mountain stages mean sprinters aren't usually involved at the business end.

Tomorrow is very tough. Then there's a flat stage for the sprinters. Think it's a rest day after that. The horrible stuff comes next week.

Today's stage was brutal, so will be interesting to see how many of the sprinters cope over the coming week.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #136369 on: July 20, 2019, 11:13:21 PM »

Is there an argument for backing him to win at 4-1 Tal? Geraint makes him favourite...

...

I don't know enough to have a view on that price. Would think Team Ineos expect to do enough up and down the mountains to get one of their guys over the line, but can't tell you whether 4/1 is value.

Maybe it was, he is 11/10 now.   Think you should still be proud, not often you get a bet that loses because it is too good.  There might still be hope of a place?  He could get a few high points finishes in the mountains fighting for yellow.   

This was the main premise of the bet, so, yes, still live. He's up to 9th in the standings now.

Trouble is he will be sitting in the peleton a lot, rather than chasing points. Stage wins do get points, though, and mountain stages mean sprinters aren't usually involved at the business end.

Tomorrow is very tough. Then there's a flat stage for the sprinters. Think it's a rest day after that. The horrible stuff comes next week.

Today's stage was brutal, so will be interesting to see how many of the sprinters cope over the coming week.


The bet was clever and you’re smart guy, it can’t win now though. Great spot though!!
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Chompy
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« Reply #136370 on: July 25, 2019, 01:57:22 PM »

Racing Post football pullout is part of next Monday's paper.
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« Reply #136371 on: July 25, 2019, 02:38:30 PM »

Thanks for the heads up
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« Reply #136372 on: July 25, 2019, 06:10:59 PM »

Racing Post football pullout is part of next Monday's paper.

Great stuff.

So that's me coming home from work on Monday, completely forgetting until about half 9 then praying the local shop still has a copy in stock before they close.

Rinse and repeat every year Smiley
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« Reply #136373 on: July 25, 2019, 06:24:04 PM »

Chomps, at what point do you think we bite the bullet and take 12s on B.Silva?

I see a few other firms have put prices up for that POTY market now, but most are at the 10/1 mark, sportboyle as low as . Most of the main boys have their odds out, a case of waiting to see if one of the more obscure operators comes in a little higher? I imagine this is a market that won't be offered by all the firms.

With the season only a couple of weeks away I wonder if we might start to see more movement, be that of the positive or negative variety.
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« Reply #136374 on: July 27, 2019, 08:23:46 AM »


Good morning

With less and less time, I only really look at the races that have the same conditions where I’ve been consistently successful over the years. 7f/1mile on straight stiff courses, sprints at tight tracks, polytrack. So today it was worth me having a good look. I have one that I think is interesting. Admirality over 7f in the 15:00 at Ascot. Best form is in big fields on straight courses, going to be fine on the going, only recently joined Roger Fell, possible further improvement to come imo. Love having Oisin on board and we can’t rule out that the horse is versatile tactically, at Ascot we often see them go too early on the straight course. Possible problems, not convinced by stall 1 or trainer form but 28/1 looks big to me.

Thoughts from the horse guys would be much appreciated.
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tikay
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« Reply #136375 on: July 27, 2019, 09:07:18 AM »


Good morning

With less and less time, I only really look at the races that have the same conditions where I’ve been consistently successful over the years. 7f/1mile on straight stiff courses, sprints at tight tracks, polytrack. So today it was worth me having a good look. I have one that I think is interesting. Admirality over 7f in the 15:00 at Ascot. Best form is in big fields on straight courses, going to be fine on the going, only recently joined Roger Fell, possible further improvement to come imo. Love having Oisin on board and we can’t rule out that the horse is versatile tactically, at Ascot we often see them go too early on the straight course. Possible problems, not convinced by stall 1 or trainer form but 28/1 looks big to me.

Thoughts from the horse guys would be much appreciated.

Morning Mr Kuku.

I don't know whether it helps or hinders, but you might be interested to know that the weather in the Ascot area has been awful, really heavy rain all night & still tipping down now.   
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« Reply #136376 on: July 27, 2019, 09:27:01 AM »


Good morning

With less and less time, I only really look at the races that have the same conditions where I’ve been consistently successful over the years. 7f/1mile on straight stiff courses, sprints at tight tracks, polytrack. So today it was worth me having a good look. I have one that I think is interesting. Admirality over 7f in the 15:00 at Ascot. Best form is in big fields on straight courses, going to be fine on the going, only recently joined Roger Fell, possible further improvement to come imo. Love having Oisin on board and we can’t rule out that the horse is versatile tactically, at Ascot we often see them go too early on the straight course. Possible problems, not convinced by stall 1 or trainer form but 28/1 looks big to me.

Thoughts from the horse guys would be much appreciated.

Morning Mr Kuku.

I don't know whether it helps or hinders, but you might be interested to know that the weather in the Ascot area has been awful, really heavy rain all night & still tipping down now.   

Thanks mate, I hadn’t realised it was that heavy. We’re happy on G/S, rethinking things on softer than that. Also, I’ll need to recheck how that impacts the draw.
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Chompy
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« Reply #136377 on: July 27, 2019, 10:04:32 AM »

Far side (low) is best at Ascot when it's soft and it's a big bias too.
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« Reply #136378 on: July 27, 2019, 10:05:19 AM »

Far side (low) is best at Ascot when it's soft and it's a big bias too.

Many thanks.
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tikay
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« Reply #136379 on: July 27, 2019, 10:06:22 AM »


Good morning

With less and less time, I only really look at the races that have the same conditions where I’ve been consistently successful over the years. 7f/1mile on straight stiff courses, sprints at tight tracks, polytrack. So today it was worth me having a good look. I have one that I think is interesting. Admirality over 7f in the 15:00 at Ascot. Best form is in big fields on straight courses, going to be fine on the going, only recently joined Roger Fell, possible further improvement to come imo. Love having Oisin on board and we can’t rule out that the horse is versatile tactically, at Ascot we often see them go too early on the straight course. Possible problems, not convinced by stall 1 or trainer form but 28/1 looks big to me.

Thoughts from the horse guys would be much appreciated.

Morning Mr Kuku.

I don't know whether it helps or hinders, but you might be interested to know that the weather in the Ascot area has been awful, really heavy rain all night & still tipping down now.  

Thanks mate, I hadn’t realised it was that heavy. We’re happy on G/S, rethinking things on softer than that. Also, I’ll need to recheck how that impacts the draw.

This might help Kuku - 9mm of rain overnight, & going now officially good to soft. The rain is expected to stop by midday.


https://twitter.com/Ascot/status/1155040880845156352
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