The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[doubleup]

I wish people would stop putting about the nonsense that no deal would hurt the EU as much as the UK. It wouldn’t - by a long way.
The UK (and Ireland) would suffer a lot; the rest of the EU, a bit.

I don't think anyone has said that. It was the IMF report that was referred to. Clearly there would be some effect in Europe.

1.5% off GDP growth and losing a million jobs in the EU would hurt.

If you read the report you quoted you would see that Ireland would be hit very badly, a few other EU countries also affected but most not much at all.  The 1.5% is over ten years not one.

[MintTrav]

I wish people would stop putting about the nonsense that no deal would hurt the EU as much as the UK. It wouldn’t - by a long way.
The UK (and Ireland) would suffer a lot; the rest of the EU, a bit.

I don't think anyone has said that. It was the IMF report that was referred to. Clearly there would be some effect in Europe.

1.5% off GDP growth and losing a million jobs in the EU would hurt.

If you read the report you quoted you would see that Ireland would be hit very badly, a few other EU countries also affected but most not much at all.  The 1.5% is over ten years not one.

Exactly.

Rick - of course it has been said repeatedly that the EU will suffer as much as the UK. Some have said the EU will suffer more. Utter piffle.

Selective quoting is quite funny - of course there would be an effect in EU countries. As the report says, there are no winners from Brexit. But just saying that the EU would be affected negatively, without qualifying that by saying it would be much worse for us, seems like an attempt to mislead. Here is a graph from the report you are so keen on:

Click to see full-size image.

[MANTIS01]

We all agree that Ireland would suffer a lot.

So talk to us about this union where if one of the group suffers a lot it's ok to play hardball cos the rest of us will only suffer a bit. Sounds like a cool club. 

[doubleup]

We all agree that Ireland would suffer a lot.

So talk to us about this union where if one of the group suffers a lot it's ok to play hardball cos the rest of us will only suffer a bit. Sounds like a cool club. 

The only people who want this hard brexit are ukipers and rees-mogg's crowd. 

[MintTrav]

We all agree that Ireland would suffer a lot.

So talk to us about this union where if one of the group suffers a lot it's ok to play hardball cos the rest of us will only suffer a bit. Sounds like a cool club. 

Don't worry about Ireland - focus on where the UK will be (ie even worse off than Ireland).

[Longines]

4% of Ireland's GDP will be not far off a rounding error of the total EU GDP. The club will probably help them out, give them a bigger share of, say, a divorce settlement they're due to receive shortly which is equivalent to roughly 20% of Ireland's GDP.

[StuartHopkin]

4% of Ireland's GDP will be not far off a rounding error of the total EU GDP. The club will probably help them out, give them a bigger share of, say, a divorce settlement they're due to receive shortly which is equivalent to roughly 20% of Ireland's GDP.

Do you really think that gets paid in a hard Brexit scenario?

[MANTIS01]

Remain - “Ireland will suffer a lot”

Leave - “Seems kinda callous outcome, glad we’re leaving that club”

Remain - “Oh yeah, well ok, they won’t suffer”

[MANTIS01]

What's it going to take for a vote of no confidence in Maybot?

Looks like EU unimpressed with her white paper. No deal looks increasingly likely. Amazing scenes.

[MintTrav]

I'll believe 'no deal' when I see it. Both sides are full of crap. They have both essentially admitted that 'no deal' is a negotiating ploy to allow them to have the nuclear option. When they are both so transparent that it is a bluff, there seems no value in even having it as an option (just like real nuclear arms, eh? But that's a different debate). EU negotiations have a history of dragging on to the last minute, going over the deadline and getting agreed in the early hours of the next day. I don't think either side will allow the UK to be cut loose to flounder on its own. They all know it would take decades to recover from the damage, if we ever did. So I have no doubt that a deal of some sort will be agreed, though it could just be a 'temporary' extension of current arrangements. A potentially bigger problem might be getting any deal approved by Parliament. An extension might be the 'deal' that has the best chance of being approved,

[MANTIS01]

Looking back I'm staggered at what Cameron was thinking and what the motivation was for holding a referendum. I'm no fan of Danny Dyer but his line "what a twat, where is the twat" seems pretty accurate. We really needed a switched-on government who planned extensively before asking such a reckless question.

We can't disagree with the result because the same emotive issues remain but honestly where is the leadership? As unpopular as Thatcher was she was worlds away from the long line of corpses that have been wheeled out since her demise. I literally can't think of anybody who got the pulse racing. Tis why I'm not specifically a Trump hater or at least not anti a patriotic leader who would tell the EU to fuck off and really mean it, thus securing the best negotiating position. Watching Maybot on Andrew Marr, she's still in the same mould as Michael Howard when Paxman asked him to answer the question. 

[MANTIS01]

No, that's not fair. I thought Blair in the first year or two before he turned into a cackling Europhile was a breath of fresh air.

[RED-DOG]

Looking back I'm staggered at what Cameron was thinking and what the motivation was for holding a referendum. I'm no fan of Danny Dyer but his line "what a twat, where is the twat" seems pretty accurate. We really needed a switched-on government who planned extensively before asking such a reckless question.

We can't disagree with the result because the same emotive issues remain but honestly where is the leadership? As unpopular as Thatcher was she was worlds away from the long line of corpses that have been wheeled out since her demise. I literally can't think of anybody who got the pulse racing. Tis why I'm not specifically a Trump hater or at least not anti a patriotic leader who would tell the EU to fuck off and really mean it, thus securing the best negotiating position. Watching Maybot on Andrew Marr, she's still in the same mould as Michael Howard when Paxman asked him to answer the question. 

I agree with this except the Trump hating bit.

He probably would be a better Brexit negotiator, but then so would Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot Etc.

He's still a racist, misogynistic idiot megalomaniac who would IMO sanction the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and not lose a wink of sleep if he thought he could get away with it.

Donald Trump cares about one thing in this world- Donald trump.

[MANTIS01]

Fair enough Red.

Just personally don’t really hate anyone. Not good for my karma I find.

[RED-DOG]

Fair enough Red.

Just personally don’t really hate anyone. Not good for my karma I find.

I wouldn't hate him if he didn't have so much power over so many lives. If he were out of office I wouldn't give a flying fuck about him.