The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

A VIABLE DEAL FOR THE UK TO LEAVE THE EU IS NOT POSSIBLE

Don’t know about you guys but personally find that statement pretty chilling.

We are trapped and have no viable choice to change

this is because in a globalised interconnected world with just in time supply chains there are not the technological solutions yet to prevent a huge economic dislocation

Even if you say "i don't care about the economics" then the unalienable fact now is that the Good Friday Agreement is the main constitutional agreement to resolve and two years of debate has not led to a customs/border solution that keeps that intact to the satisfaction of both sides of that divide

So no, Leave is a busted argument

The right way was always to influence from within

There is not a single deal that is better than the arrangement we have now

I have to laugh when the "crazies" now say "this deal will lose us sovereignty" thereby implicitly confirming that we have sovereignty in the EU

complete charlatans, or lack of intellectual rigour, or both

So we’re trapped...

our current arrangement is the best arrangement

the flawed proposal is a better alternative than no deal

/endthread (joking)

[Pokerpops]

This arrived in my email earlier today from The Spectator

Good morning. Dominic Raab has quit as Brexit Secretary, and dealt a fatal blow to any hope that Theresa May's Brexit deal will pass the House of Commons and very probably to May's premiership as well.

Raab's resignation changes the calculation as far as other Cabinet ministers are concerned. It confirms what we already knew, which is that there are far too many Conservative MPs who are committed to voting against this deal for it pass even with a substantial Labour rebellion. If you are Penny Mordaunt, playing a blinder as far as the leadership race is concerned at Dfid, why stay? If you are Esther McVey, why pass up the one opportunity for the word "resigns" to appear next to your name without the words "in disgrace" next to them?  And doubtless many junior ministers will decide that their own futures are better served by quitting.

It makes it much harder to see how May can remain as Prime Minister, but ultimately, the fate of May is almost entirely besides the point as far as the shape of Brexit and the fate of the United Kingdom are concerned.

Here's what actually matters: our only land border with the European Union was the site of a civil war within living memory, and its constitutional status is still fiercely contested. The Irish government, with whom we share that border, has a veto over any negotiated end state. Just as no British Prime Minister could survive signing a deal that separated Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom, no Irish Taoiseach could survive signing a deal that put a hard border on the island of Ireland.

That sharply limits the potential deals that any Conservative leader can strike. A Tory Prime Minister can't negotiate a deal the United Kingdom away from the customs and regulatory orbit of the European Union because that would either mean a border in the Irish Sea (unacceptable to the DUP, without whom they cannot survive in office, and to Conservative MPs, without whom they cannot remain as party leader) or a deal in which a border appears between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which the Irish government would veto.  So all that is left is some flavour of negotiated Brexit that keeps the whole of the United Kingdom within the regulatory and customs orbit of the European Union or leaving without a deal.

Whether or not May remains as Prime Minister, regardless of who is in or out of her Cabinet, that essential truth will not change.



Love the line about Esther McVey


So where next?
Give BoJo the job and let him fail before we all accept that the last two and a half years have been utterly wasted in pursuing a mirage.
Then tell the EU that we’ll stay, but that we will be working to reign back the federal side of the Union.

F*** knows.

[kukushkin88]

What are the odds being offered on next Tory leader?

As speculation continues over Conservative MPs submitting letters of no confidence in the PM to the 1922 Committee, who do the bookmakers think might succeed Theresa May if a vacancy arises?

Dominic Raab - 5/1

Sajid Javid - 11/2

Boris Johnson - 6/1

Michael Gove - 17/2

Jeremy Hunt - 17/2

Jacob Rees-Mogg - 17/2

David Davis - 17/2

Looks like Boris is the bet, I also think Gove is a fair price.

Haha.....go on then, I reckon you can’t bring yourself to do it 

No emotional attachment to any bet, plus some extra Euros for my new life in France :-)

[RED-DOG]

Always laugh at those that suggest a deal was never possible.

None of us know how bad a negotiator TM is/was, and I for one suspect the mass resignations tell us that she has been pretty damn poor.

One wonders if even a half decent used car salesman could have done a better job.......

I don't think there was more available at any point, but seriously, what more do you (or anyone) think a better negotiator could have got?

[TightEnd]

Props to who did this (then used by paddy p)

[StuartHopkin]

Let's not forget they all live in that bubble where resigning doesn't actually mean anything....

[bobAlike]

https://twitter.com/MrKenShabby/status/1062794166239969280

[MANTIS01]

What’s the advantages of signing up to a union where in the future there wouldn’t be any other viable options?

Oh and really noticed the difference between politicians and football managers when it comes to resigning their position this week

[TightEnd]

because that union provides you with frictionless access to hundreds of millions of (in a global context) wealthy consumers, consistent with being in a globalised economy with just in time supply chains

With a say at the table on everything

The EU also has a role in preserving peace,indeed this was its original formation

Notions of imperalist sovereignty are outdated in this global construct

All that said globalisation clearly has a downside, and attitudes to free movement of labour ("taking our jobs, taking our benefits, we benefit in our region from euro money" but we don't care type attitudes) is the most obvious manifestation of that and that drove the 52% vote

[RickBFA]

Dominic Raab has been a devious 2hat.

Pienaar was saying on Five Live earlier today that his motive is really a leadership bid. Seems to be an open secret in Westminster.

So throw May under the bus and concentrate on your own political ambitions. So much for the national interest given where we are eh?

That’s the problem with politicians, they get seduced by power and self interest.

[BigAdz]

Always laugh at those that suggest a deal was never possible.

None of us know how bad a negotiator TM is/was, and I for one suspect the mass resignations tell us that she has been pretty damn poor.

One wonders if even a half decent used car salesman could have done a better job.......

I don't think there was more available at any point, but seriously, what more do you (or anyone) think a better negotiator could have got?

I really don't know.

I listened on the way home to TM laying out what she has achieved. It seemed to tick all the boxes for me, but I don't know the detail. But  therein lies the obvious weakness, in what she is claiming as a victory yet Brexiteers are leaving toot sweet.


A bit like my golf club got burgled last night and hundreds of years worth of memorabilia and trophies nicked. Our club secretary said we could have done nothing else, we had an alarm system. However members have today found out it was the cheapest on the market and had minimal cctv coverage......get my drift.....

[Marky147]

Hope we end up staying, so this can hit 2000 pages

[TightEnd]

Anyone who resigns from this point on should be obliged to define in their letter exactly what sort of deal they want, and how they think it can be achieved.

[Pokerpops]

Anyone who resigns from this point on should be obliged to define in their letter exactly what sort of deal they want, and how they think it can be achieved.

Let’s be realistic, if we had politicians of that level of integrity we wouldn’t be in this mess now.



The deal, as far as I can see from the reports, is the worst of all possible outcomes.
Given the option of this deal, and staying in the EU, I would very reluctantly vote to stay. Maybe this is the outcome that TM has been aiming for ver the past two years?

[Longines]

Anyone who resigns from this point on should be obliged to define in their letter exactly what sort of deal they want, and how they think it can be achieved.

You posted a killer Venn diagram earlier in this thread. They should be forced to put an X in the bit of the diagram they'd choose.