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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180885 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #18705 on: July 07, 2019, 02:17:43 PM »

To be fair, Boris voted for it on the third occasion as did Raab who negotiated it, resigned after he did so to vote against it, voted against it then voted for it, then stood for leader arguing against it.

Funny old world it is
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« Reply #18706 on: July 07, 2019, 02:28:51 PM »

The referendum result was a point in time and due to ever changing variables we shouldn’t nail our colours to the result?

Yet behold this euro poll which displays a point in time but despite ever changing variables it’s a stone cold result?

Think we need to look to the horizon and I take mortality but raise the growing challenge to immigration & trade & economy & unemployment & democracy (Hey i posted a link to corroborate) There’s many others.

Like I said what are the variables that mean confidence and satisfaction grows after Brexit?
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« Reply #18707 on: July 07, 2019, 04:06:52 PM »

google (other search engines are available) is your friend

Really not difficult to find articles that support any point in this day an age

whether these articles are valid is up to the reader


The final point here is the most valid for some time.

I was thinking something similar myself earlier, in as much as I read many of the articles posted and often by the end am swayed very much by what I have read. Then I remember that all these articles are written by professional journalists who have been training to express their view in a way people are swayed by it, or they really wouldn't be that good at their job.

Some people are taken in and trust all they read without using their own brain to qualify it afterwards.
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« Reply #18708 on: July 07, 2019, 08:19:17 PM »

https://twitter.com/i/status/1147922695188881409
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« Reply #18709 on: July 07, 2019, 09:30:08 PM »

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/

Another variable to take seriously is the new leaders. As an economic wizard the criminally neglectful lawyer Legarde with no economic background isn’t a banker, cough, to positively impact the Euro right?? Plus the worst minister in Germany. Plus failed Belgium PM. Who knows how these guys work out but it isn’t any kind of certainty. Bit like Lampard at Chelsea.

Legarde will make a great ECB boss. The ECB is not short of bankers or economists, but it is short of talented politicians.

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« Reply #18710 on: July 08, 2019, 01:29:44 AM »

From recollection I can say that before the referendum Brexit was an underdog...so I can assume a EU satisfaction survey would spit out majority approval in UK. Could trawl google, not sure they commissioned such a poll, bet there was varying results at different stages. My point that the rumblings of discontent in EU are similar to pre-Brexit UK and what’s an underdog today can readily change doesn’t need verifying.

We are all sailing into uncharted territory in an organic situation with many changeable variables, recognised challenges and new leadership. Nobody needs to or indeed can prove an opinion for it to offer merit to this debate

The problem with polls is the sample sizes. Channel 4 did a poll and a Brexit programme and it was utterly laughable that they commissioned a whole programme around such a poor sample size. I also find that less intelligent folk do not get involved with polls too, this has been published many times. Therefore if we use my tired old argument of Brexit voters being less intelligent then you can't take much from the polls anyway. Recent polls of pretty much everything political these days has been far off, Brexit and Trump was similar prices at the off, despite different polling.

FWIW, I don't really agree with Doobs point about mortality and majorities. We can't just sit on here and say well people died and younger vote remain and therefore Brexit has no majority or use it to ask for a second vote, etc. That point is pretty invalid, because you can't move the goalposts due to new voters or less of them. I agree whole heartedly for a second vote, not because of the current voters, but instead to give the country a clearer choice. Do we want the same? Do we like the deal? Do we want no-deal? We now have a clearer choice.

The sad thing about it all is that the utter worst choice out of them all is that we have a general election. I am all for getting the Tories out, but it's going to be a mess. Probably the most hung government in history. Perhaps the inability to even form one, because ultimately Labour would have to get in bed with 2/3 more parties and that cannot work.

The even sadder thing is that whilst all this has been going on the domestic agenda has been totally lost. People are dying, starving, mentally struggling and much more, because of the uncertainty of Brexit.
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« Reply #18711 on: July 08, 2019, 01:22:05 PM »

Faisal Islam is back, as economics editor of the BBC from sky

first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics. How economics is driving global events

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48903058
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« Reply #18712 on: July 08, 2019, 01:22:38 PM »

A key problem for Team Johnson is the lack of a popular mandate for No Deal.

good thread

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1147837424355237888
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« Reply #18713 on: July 08, 2019, 01:23:13 PM »

another excellent Grey blog

"Enjoy the Brexit doldrums while they last. My latest Brexit Blog post on the leadership contest, why the antics of the Brexit Party matter, and the politics of anger that we're now stuck with"

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/enjoy-brexit-doldrums-while-they-last.html
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« Reply #18714 on: July 08, 2019, 02:29:46 PM »

another excellent Grey blog

"Enjoy the Brexit doldrums while they last. My latest Brexit Blog post on the leadership contest, why the antics of the Brexit Party matter, and the politics of anger that we're now stuck with"

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/enjoy-brexit-doldrums-while-they-last.html

Interesting read, some of his archive stuff is pretty good too, but I clicked on one link and got taken to The Sun website. Shocking.
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« Reply #18715 on: July 08, 2019, 02:42:16 PM »

Faisal Islam is back, as economics editor of the BBC from sky

first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics. How economics is driving global events

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48903058


Where has he been?
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« Reply #18716 on: July 08, 2019, 02:44:08 PM »

The referendum result was a point in time and due to ever changing variables we shouldn’t nail our colours to the result?

Yet behold this euro poll which displays a point in time but despite ever changing variables it’s a stone cold result?

Think we need to look to the horizon and I take mortality but raise the growing challenge to immigration & trade & economy & unemployment & democracy (Hey i posted a link to corroborate) There’s many others.

Like I said what are the variables that mean confidence and satisfaction grows after Brexit?

will try and have a go at answering this

I think you mean the variables within the EU countries?

They face challenges. Economic growth is slow, at sub 1.5% a decade on from the last crisis. Populism is on the rise, the far right is on the rise. Italy, Portugal and others have debt issues and within the constraints of the EU cannot devalue in a common currency. The Greece problem is repeatable. The "solution" to Greece was harshly imposed and attitudes to Germany and France in particular have worsened since.

The issue is that after decades of financial and economic integration where within a customs union barriers to intra-EU trade are removed and access to global markets is increased for the small EU states, that to reverse this without causing a lot of economic damage is unlikely. Operating in a j-i-t environment requires frictionless trade and i think EU governments and a majority of their populations (who know the EU better than many of our population does) realise this harmonisation leads to better standards of living for most.

So is the EU a case of "the better the devil you know"? Well on top of that there are billions poured from EU funds into less well off areas that national governments would not match.

Over and above this though "liberalism" is on the wane in the face of populism, resentment to politics and politicians and there isn't a lot of sign that there is much of a (successful) reaction to this.

Just to return to Brexit, there is little to suggest that any UK politician has workable solution that can succeed yet. May had an unpopular one and failed to get it through three times. So even if you are anti-EU it is encumbent on those politicians trying to deliver it for you to find a solution that makes some progress. No deal comes with big risks. Parliament has no majority for anything and might be able to block no deal anyway. So how exactly does this resolve?

All i can see is Boris "pump primes" (emergency budget, tax cuts, spending, its the end of austerity under Boris etc) in the summer, calls a feel good "let me deliver" election in late summer with Labour in a mess, gets enough Brexit party voters back on his personal popularity and tries to get a Parliamentary majority that then makes the EU think he might actually get no deal through and they then blink and he gets a renegotiation at the last minute At the moment they think he is bluffing.

-----


by the by i found this, which is more polling grist to the mill for Mr Mantis

"In 11 of 14 countries recently surveyed by YouGov and the European Council on Foreign Relations, the majority of respondents reported anticipating a possible EU collapse within the next 10-20 years. For a project that once seemed like a beacon of hope for values-based global cooperation, this is a devastating reversal."

https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_seven_days_to_save_the_european_union

if it does though, how do individual countries currently in the EU counter the enormous impact friction in trade will have across all industries? Three years into our attempt to resolve this one, and nothing has come up so far....
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« Reply #18717 on: July 08, 2019, 02:44:49 PM »

Faisal Islam is back, as economics editor of the BBC from sky

first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics. How economics is driving global events

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48903058


Where has he been?

 on gardening leave
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« Reply #18718 on: July 08, 2019, 02:52:15 PM »

Faisal Islam is back, as economics editor of the BBC from sky

first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics. How economics is driving global events

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48903058


Where has he been?

 on gardening leave


Why is he doing economics now? He was great on politics.
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« Reply #18719 on: July 08, 2019, 02:55:37 PM »

Faisal Islam is back, as economics editor of the BBC from sky

first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics. How economics is driving global events

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48903058


Where has he been?

 on gardening leave


Why is he doing economics now? He was great on politics.


Economics. The prince of disciplines. All the best people studied it

Anyway, it gives him a chance to disprove the following.

The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist.

The Second Law of Economists: They’re both wrong.

(but its still important. good article too)
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