The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[MANTIS01]

Boris is doing the exact right thing. This is a highest stakes negotiation and we always figured the traction was happening in the final chapter.

No ifs or buts leave on Halloween, snap GE, deselect any dissenters, contemplate ignoring act of parliament. What a refreshing change after the fudging tepid awkward Maybot.

Bowling around like a lunatic with balls out, ripping up the rule book, nuclear tactics vs barnier “the clock is ticking” party piece

So weird how remain are saying Boris is forcing a No Deal!?! What possible reason/advantage would he force No Deal. I think he is well smart and figured out Remain were undermining our position so has flip reversed and used the snowflakery to strengthen his hand. Listen to them Barnier I am a dictatorial madman who isn’t blinking.

I think he wins tomorrow and if not gets majority in GE so he’s played a blinder so far imo

[aaron1867]

So weird how remain are saying Boris is forcing a No Deal!?! What possible reason/advantage would he force No Deal. I think he is well smart and figured out Remain were undermining our position so has flip reversed and used the snowflakery to strengthen his hand. Listen to them Barnier I am a dictatorial madman who isn’t blinking.

I think he wins tomorrow and if not gets majority in GE so he’s played a blinder so far imo

I think what is more weird is that you believe what you're saying. This isn't the fault of remain. This is the fault of leave voters who didn't understand the complexities and the government not being able to negotiate a fair deal. You can completely understand why both side of the argument voted against a deal which leave Northern Ireland pretty much n the EU.

As for a General Election, Tories have just lost Ruth in Scotland. Folk won't forget about how bad the Tories have handled this and folk don't want no deal. I think the Tories are in a horrendous position in regards to an election. I think the remain parties will come up with a significant plan to pull parties out so that seats are won for remain parties.

Prediction: Tories 290 seats &  majority for remain parties.

[Doobs]

Boris is doing the exact right thing. This is a highest stakes negotiation and we always figured the traction was happening in the final chapter.

No ifs or buts leave on Halloween, snap GE, deselect any dissenters, contemplate ignoring act of parliament. What a refreshing change after the fudging tepid awkward Maybot.

Bowling around like a lunatic with balls out, ripping up the rule book, nuclear tactics vs barnier “the clock is ticking” party piece

So weird how remain are saying Boris is forcing a No Deal!?! What possible reason/advantage would he force No Deal. I think he is well smart and figured out Remain were undermining our position so has flip reversed and used the snowflakery to strengthen his hand. Listen to them Barnier I am a dictatorial madman who isn’t blinking.

I think he wins tomorrow and if not gets majority in GE so he’s played a blinder so far imo

But hasn't he told everybody that he doesn't want no deal and that what hs is doing is just a cunning plan to get the EU to change their minds.  Though he might get lucky and discover that nobody else in the World speaks English?

Surprised that the EU don't just step in and take control given I read that they write all the laws and control everything we do.

Will be pretty amusing if he calls an election and then doesn't get the two thirds he needs, though suspect Corbyn will find a way to fold the winning hand.

[aaron1867]

Going to be absolute scenes if Labour don't vote for this election in the coming days. Seems as in Cummings plan might not be coming to bare its fruits after all. But like Doobs said, nobody cn second guess Corbyn.

At least with any potential election it seems like we might be getting somewhere after all, but could be a genuine nightmare if it comes back with a horribly hung parliament. Not sure where that would leave us?

But kind of don't understand the polling for the Lib Dems, they seem to be the party that remain are turning to, so why are projected seats/polls showing at 30 ish? I think they're going to be in for a LOT more than that. All the stuff I see on Twitter is just Tories turning to BP or LD and Labour turning to LD. I haven't heard a single person say they will move to vote Tory, not one.

Genuinely think that we will see a remain coalition in October. SNP+ & LD++++.

[Pokerpops]

An interesting take from the ex head of the British Chambers of Commerce

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/are-we-watching-a-monumental-act-of-treachery/

[BigAdz]

In a broader view, we have heard enough shouts for independence from each of Scotland, Wales and NI over the years to leave them to it. Brexit seems a very English affair, so let's finally go our own way and sod the lot of em.

[booder]

Said about as much there as Tikay has on his diary since he got back from Vegas  

Diary will resume before Brexit happens.

Call.

Edit.. Marky beat me to it.

[Jon MW]

...

But kind of don't understand the polling for the Lib Dems, they seem to be the party that remain are turning to, so why are projected seats/polls showing at 30 ish? I think they're going to be in for a LOT more than that. All the stuff I see on Twitter is just Tories turning to BP or LD and Labour turning to LD. I haven't heard a single person say they will move to vote Tory, not one.

Genuinely think that we will see a remain coalition in October. SNP+ & LD++++.

A lot of Conservative 'Remain' constituencies are safe or pretty safe seats.

They can only estimate this because counting wasn't done at a constituency level but this is apparently the best guess
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum_by_constituency

It would need a whole lot more analysis but I'm guessing the surprisingly low LD prediction is a combination of their support being too spread out to gain the seats under FPTP and that even a big swing for them in many seats won't be enough for them to win them.

[aaron1867]

...

But kind of don't understand the polling for the Lib Dems, they seem to be the party that remain are turning to, so why are projected seats/polls showing at 30 ish? I think they're going to be in for a LOT more than that. All the stuff I see on Twitter is just Tories turning to BP or LD and Labour turning to LD. I haven't heard a single person say they will move to vote Tory, not one.

Genuinely think that we will see a remain coalition in October. SNP+ & LD++++.

A lot of Conservative 'Remain' constituencies are safe or pretty safe seats.

They can only estimate this because counting wasn't done at a constituency level but this is apparently the best guess
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum_by_constituency

It would need a whole lot more analysis but I'm guessing the surprisingly low LD prediction is a combination of their support being too spread out to gain the seats under FPTP and that even a big swing for them in many seats won't be enough for them to win them.

Everyone seems to be talking about the Lib Dems - If you're wanting to vote for a remain party, then you have to tick the Lib Dem box. Didn't they get 50+ seats in the Nick Clegg days? I think they'd be looking for at least that?

[RED-DOG]

I'm a remainer and I don't like Boris.

But, surely no deal has to remain on the table as a bargaining tool, otherwise all the EU have to do is offer us a crap deal and we have to either stay in or accept it.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I'm a remainer and I don't like Boris.

But, surely no deal has to remain on the table as a bargaining tool, otherwise all the EU have to do is offer us a crap deal and we have to either stay in or accept it.

As far as the EU are concerned, and I don't blame them for this, there's currently no negotiation taking place as it's all been done and dusted.  The situation you describe above is where we were at the start of 2019.

In fairness to them, they've now said they'll listen to the UK's alternative proposals regarding the backstop, and so far we've provided nothing to them in this regard.  According to reports yesterday, the 'new draft' being referred to by Government is simply the old withdrawal agreement with the backstop references crossed out.

Given that it took 2 years to negotiate the first deal, the fact that we're even trying to sell it as feasible that there's still time to rework this is ludicrous.  Beyond that, even if something was agreed, the ratification process required is fraught with difficulty, as Spain will want to re-negotiate Gibraltar, etc.  We saw the difficulties in getting the EU27 to ratify the original agreement and if we move the goalposts on what's been agreed then the other member states will want to do the same.  IIRC, Spain (Gibraltar) and France (Fishing rights) were the two most difficult issues last time around, so expect these to pop up again, at the very least.

[RED-DOG]

Thinking about it, wouldn't we be in a better position to make deals after we leave? Of course we would. Anything they are prepared to offer pre Brexit they will surely offer afterwards.

What we should be saying is "Give us XY&Z and we will stay."

It makes no difference to me if I upset 52% or 48% of the electorate, democracy is an illusion anyway, it's like telling a child he's completely free to choose whether he eats his spinach or his sprouts. (We know what's best for him so it's all good)

[Cf]

Thinking about it, wouldn't we be in a better position to make deals after we leave? Of course we would. Anything they are prepared to offer pre Brexit they will surely offer afterwards.

No! We'd be completely at their mercy in that case. A bit like we'll be with the US.

[RED-DOG]

Thinking about it, wouldn't we be in a better position to make deals after we leave? Of course we would. Anything they are prepared to offer pre Brexit they will surely offer afterwards.

No! We'd be completely at their mercy in that case. A bit like we'll be with the US.

How so? What can we offer now that we couldn't offer after we leave?

Please explain because I genuinely don't understand how our negotiating position is currently better.

[TightEnd]

peston has the list of Tory rebels willing to vote to prevent No Deal. Here they are:

Amongst these 22 MPs are 10 former cabinet ministers, 21 former ministers, 2 former chancellors, a former deputy PM, a former education secretary, a former lord chancellor and a former Conservative Party chair.

There can't be any precedent for expelling a group like this (whether you agree with that or not)