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« Reply #1320 on: April 11, 2020, 07:36:31 PM »

"Will you apologise......" questions even top the inanity of "shouldn't you have done x sooner" questions.


The demanding an apology is inane, I agree. They’re going to have to get used to the ‘sooner’ question though. Even now, we could still implement a lockdown. I’m surprised you thought that point from the Swedish epidemiologist was clever, it really isn’t, all that anybody means when criticising a failure to act ‘sooner’, is inexplicably waiting to act, it’s perfectly valid. In the next 10 days we will be well clear for most deaths in Europe (and 2nd most known in the world), so people won’t stop asking the ‘sooner’ question.

Still no improvement in the government trotting out massively wrong numbers, with no explanation for why they’re wrong. Can’t they just watch Sturgeon and see how easy it is?


Stephen Powis still saying 20,000, we won’t be far off that by this Monday morning (when the ONS update up to 13/04).


Seems mad that it was only a few days ago that they said 7,000 to 20,000 only a few days ago.   It is as unfathomable as when they kept saying it doubled every 5/6 days when it was clearly doubling in less than 3 days.

Anyway, good to see the deaths are starting to level off a bit.   I think schools will be back by half term, though I am struggling to see an end game.  Surely going back to normal before a vaccine just means cases doubling every 3 days again.   Some sort of quasi social distancing may work in the sticks longer term but how do you keep away from other people on a rush hour train/tube?

Really?

Over here we have just had our first two deaths (a 92 & 89 year old) around 250 cases (guess) and our schools are closed til the new school year. I would be amazed if schools opened there in 10 days?


It is Easter here, half term is the end of May.   I just think schools reopen before other things start as the released documents suggest they think it is lower risk than other actions.  Presumably they can partially reopen without the exam cohorts?  There is no point in bringing years 11 and 13 back as there are no GCSEs or A levels?   Just thinking how I'd do it. 
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« Reply #1321 on: April 11, 2020, 07:39:25 PM »

"Will you apologise......" questions even top the inanity of "shouldn't you have done x sooner" questions.


The demanding an apology is inane, I agree. They’re going to have to get used to the ‘sooner’ question though. Even now, we could still implement a lockdown. I’m surprised you thought that point from the Swedish epidemiologist was clever, it really isn’t, all that anybody means when criticising a failure to act ‘sooner’, is inexplicably waiting to act, it’s perfectly valid. In the next 10 days we will be well clear for most deaths in Europe (and 2nd most known in the world), so people won’t stop asking the ‘sooner’ question.

Still no improvement in the government trotting out massively wrong numbers, with no explanation for why they’re wrong. Can’t they just watch Sturgeon and see how easy it is?



I don't think it's clever. I just think the line of why didn't you do something is pointless. It doesn't achieve anything that helps us into the future. In the future there may be legitimate reasons for a forensic review of decision making every step of the way. In fact I'm sure there will be, but even that will be better done by people with some expertise rather than journos.
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« Reply #1322 on: April 11, 2020, 07:57:02 PM »

"Will you apologise......" questions even top the inanity of "shouldn't you have done x sooner" questions.


The demanding an apology is inane, I agree. They’re going to have to get used to the ‘sooner’ question though. Even now, we could still implement a lockdown. I’m surprised you thought that point from the Swedish epidemiologist was clever, it really isn’t, all that anybody means when criticising a failure to act ‘sooner’, is inexplicably waiting to act, it’s perfectly valid. In the next 10 days we will be well clear for most deaths in Europe (and 2nd most known in the world), so people won’t stop asking the ‘sooner’ question.

Still no improvement in the government trotting out massively wrong numbers, with no explanation for why they’re wrong. Can’t they just watch Sturgeon and see how easy it is?



I don't think it's clever. I just think the line of why didn't you do something is pointless. It doesn't achieve anything that helps us into the future. In the future there may be legitimate reasons for a forensic review of decision making every step of the way. In fact I'm sure there will be, but even that will be better done by people with some expertise rather than journos.

Exactly that. Do the handwringing later, lets focus on getting through as best we can.

Morbid whingebags can always find something to moan about on yahoo.
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« Reply #1323 on: April 11, 2020, 08:44:02 PM »

I live in an apartment block which is a gated community. There has been strict regulations put in place since January 23rd.  These included scanning a QR code with personal details , address , passport number etc .
This was to help to see if you been out of China or even out of the City , you had to scan similar QR code’s to enter shopping malls , restaurants, bars etc .
 Non residents were not allowed in and you had to collect any type of deliveries outside the security gate. 
You temperature was also taken every time you entered the complex .

Food deliveries were allowed to be delivered to the door 2 weeks ago which was a good sign things may be getting better , and tonight after I returned home from work they are no longer txoi g temperature checks. 
This is almost 3 months down the line but it appears things are getting back to normal now .   There were very strict rules in place from the start which you had to follow but it seems to be worth the while .
I wish other countries would follow suit and stay home for such a short time which is worth it in the long run
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« Reply #1324 on: April 11, 2020, 08:48:23 PM »

"Will you apologise......" questions even top the inanity of "shouldn't you have done x sooner" questions.


The demanding an apology is inane, I agree. They’re going to have to get used to the ‘sooner’ question though. Even now, we could still implement a lockdown. I’m surprised you thought that point from the Swedish epidemiologist was clever, it really isn’t, all that anybody means when criticising a failure to act ‘sooner’, is inexplicably waiting to act, it’s perfectly valid. In the next 10 days we will be well clear for most deaths in Europe (and 2nd most known in the world), so people won’t stop asking the ‘sooner’ question.

Still no improvement in the government trotting out massively wrong numbers, with no explanation for why they’re wrong. Can’t they just watch Sturgeon and see how easy it is?



I don't think it's clever. I just think the line of why didn't you do something is pointless. It doesn't achieve anything that helps us into the future. In the future there may be legitimate reasons for a forensic review of decision making every step of the way. In fact I'm sure there will be, but even that will be better done by people with some expertise rather than journos.

Exactly that. Do the handwringing later, lets focus on getting through as best we can.

Morbid whingebags can always find something to moan about on yahoo.

The government should always be held to account, when they are failing abjectly. The daily squabbles with doctors about whether or not they have ppe are shameful. They are lucky that sections of society responded more quickly than they did. Still incredible that all the sporting authorities had to act against government advice initially. Not to mention all the employers that got ahead of them.

Sadly, some really grim stats from ICU:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c31dd38d-d77b-ea11-9124-00505601089b

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« Reply #1325 on: April 11, 2020, 09:01:06 PM »

I live in an apartment block which is a gated community. There has been strict regulations put in place since January 23rd.  These included scanning a QR code with personal details , address , passport number etc .
This was to help to see if you been out of China or even out of the City , you had to scan similar QR code’s to enter shopping malls , restaurants, bars etc .
 Non residents were not allowed in and you had to collect any type of deliveries outside the security gate. 
You temperature was also taken every time you entered the complex .

Food deliveries were allowed to be delivered to the door 2 weeks ago which was a good sign things may be getting better , and tonight after I returned home from work they are no longer txoi g temperature checks. 
This is almost 3 months down the line but it appears things are getting back to normal now .   There were very strict rules in place from the start which you had to follow but it seems to be worth the while .
I wish other countries would follow suit and stay home for such a short time which is worth it in the long run

The problem is the ambiguity in the rules of our ‘lockdown’. Everyone can keep going to work, everyone is allowed out to exercise, everyone can go to packed supermarkets, incoming flights from most of the other worst afflicted places, public transport still running. No checks of any kind in terms of the screening you mention. I’m pleased you seem to be through the worst of it out there, fingers crossed that things keep going well.
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« Reply #1326 on: April 11, 2020, 09:06:12 PM »

The BBC just printed a summary of the ICU report Kush linked to:

Breakdown of UK patients in critical care
Richard Warry

BBC News

An analysis of 3,883 Covid-19 patients admitted to 229 critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland up to Thursday has been published by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.

Of these patients, 871 have died, 818 have been discharged, and 2,194 were last reported as still receiving critical care.

The average age of the patients was 59.8 years. Some 72.5% were male, and 27.5% female. Some 66.4% were white, 14.4% Asian, 11.9% black, and 1.3% of mixed race.

Nearly three-quarters of the patients had a body mass index higher than the recommended healthy level of 18.5 to 25. Some 35% had a BMI of 25 to 30 - the overweight range. And 38.5% had a BMI over more than 30 - putting them in the obese range.

93.2% had previously been able to live without assistance in daily activities. Only 6.7% previously needed some assistance, and just three needed total assistance.

Focusing on the 1,053 patients who needed advanced respiratory support, the average age on admission was 61.9 years. 73% were male, 27% female. Out of this group, 66.3% died, and 33.7% are alive.

Examining the final outcome for patients admitted to critical care, for the 133 aged 16-39, 76.7% were discharged alive, and 23.3% died.
For the 484 aged 60-69, 43.6% were discharged alive, and 56.4% died.
For the 434 aged 70-79, 31.3% were discharged alive, and 68.7% died.
And for the 107 aged over 80, 27.1% were discharged alive, and 72.9% died.


Bit easier to process then reading the whole thing. Although the whole PDF does contain other information.

EDIT: 74 % alive, 26% dead for the 40-49 age range and
58.9% alive, 41.1% dead for the 50-59 age range which were oddly omitted from the BBC summary
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 09:09:52 PM by Jon MW » Logged

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« Reply #1327 on: April 11, 2020, 09:35:58 PM »

I live in an apartment block which is a gated community. There has been strict regulations put in place since January 23rd.  These included scanning a QR code with personal details , address , passport number etc .
This was to help to see if you been out of China or even out of the City , you had to scan similar QR code’s to enter shopping malls , restaurants, bars etc .
 Non residents were not allowed in and you had to collect any type of deliveries outside the security gate. 
You temperature was also taken every time you entered the complex .

Food deliveries were allowed to be delivered to the door 2 weeks ago which was a good sign things may be getting better , and tonight after I returned home from work they are no longer txoi g temperature checks. 
This is almost 3 months down the line but it appears things are getting back to normal now .   There were very strict rules in place from the start which you had to follow but it seems to be worth the while .
I wish other countries would follow suit and stay home for such a short time which is worth it in the long run

The problem is the ambiguity in the rules of our ‘lockdown’. Everyone can keep going to work, everyone is allowed out to exercise, everyone can go to packed supermarkets, incoming flights from most of the other worst afflicted places, public transport still running. No checks of any kind in terms of the screening you mention. I’m pleased you seem to be through the worst of it out there, fingers crossed that things keep going well.

Love the notion that the Chinese authorities locked down to this degree on 23rd January on the back of 25 reported deaths at the time

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« Reply #1328 on: April 12, 2020, 01:52:42 AM »

I live in an apartment block which is a gated community. There has been strict regulations put in place since January 23rd.  These included scanning a QR code with personal details , address , passport number etc .
This was to help to see if you been out of China or even out of the City , you had to scan similar QR code’s to enter shopping malls , restaurants, bars etc .
 Non residents were not allowed in and you had to collect any type of deliveries outside the security gate. 
You temperature was also taken every time you entered the complex .

Food deliveries were allowed to be delivered to the door 2 weeks ago which was a good sign things may be getting better , and tonight after I returned home from work they are no longer txoi g temperature checks. 
This is almost 3 months down the line but it appears things are getting back to normal now .   There were very strict rules in place from the start which you had to follow but it seems to be worth the while .
I wish other countries would follow suit and stay home for such a short time which is worth it in the long run

The problem is the ambiguity in the rules of our ‘lockdown’. Everyone can keep going to work, everyone is allowed out to exercise, everyone can go to packed supermarkets, incoming flights from most of the other worst afflicted places, public transport still running. No checks of any kind in terms of the screening you mention. I’m pleased you seem to be through the worst of it out there, fingers crossed that things keep going well.

Love the notion that the Chinese authorities locked down to this degree on 23rd January on the back of 25 reported deaths at the time



It was probably around a week later the more stringent measures  were put into place.
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« Reply #1329 on: April 12, 2020, 06:27:03 AM »

"Will you apologise......" questions even top the inanity of "shouldn't you have done x sooner" questions.


The demanding an apology is inane, I agree. They’re going to have to get used to the ‘sooner’ question though. Even now, we could still implement a lockdown. I’m surprised you thought that point from the Swedish epidemiologist was clever, it really isn’t, all that anybody means when criticising a failure to act ‘sooner’, is inexplicably waiting to act, it’s perfectly valid. In the next 10 days we will be well clear for most deaths in Europe (and 2nd most known in the world), so people won’t stop asking the ‘sooner’ question.

Still no improvement in the government trotting out massively wrong numbers, with no explanation for why they’re wrong. Can’t they just watch Sturgeon and see how easy it is?


Stephen Powis still saying 20,000, we won’t be far off that by this Monday morning (when the ONS update up to 13/04).


Seems mad that it was only a few days ago that they said 7,000 to 20,000 only a few days ago.   It is as unfathomable as when they kept saying it doubled every 5/6 days when it was clearly doubling in less than 3 days.

Anyway, good to see the deaths are starting to level off a bit.   I think schools will be back by half term, though I am struggling to see an end game.  Surely going back to normal before a vaccine just means cases doubling every 3 days again.   Some sort of quasi social distancing may work in the sticks longer term but how do you keep away from other people on a rush hour train/tube?

Really?

Over here we have just had our first two deaths (a 92 & 89 year old) around 250 cases (guess) and our schools are closed til the new school year. I would be amazed if schools opened there in 10 days?


It is Easter here, half term is the end of May.   I just think schools reopen before other things start as the released documents suggest they think it is lower risk than other actions.  Presumably they can partially reopen without the exam cohorts?  There is no point in bringing years 11 and 13 back as there are no GCSEs or A levels?   Just thinking how I'd do it. 

That's what I've read this past week, after May half term at the latest supported by Union of Headteachers and most of the government. As you say sounds like one of the first restrictions they want to lift here.


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« Reply #1330 on: April 12, 2020, 08:04:13 AM »

I live in an apartment block which is a gated community. There has been strict regulations put in place since January 23rd.  These included scanning a QR code with personal details , address , passport number etc .
This was to help to see if you been out of China or even out of the City , you had to scan similar QR code’s to enter shopping malls , restaurants, bars etc .
 Non residents were not allowed in and you had to collect any type of deliveries outside the security gate. 
You temperature was also taken every time you entered the complex .

Food deliveries were allowed to be delivered to the door 2 weeks ago which was a good sign things may be getting better , and tonight after I returned home from work they are no longer txoi g temperature checks. 
This is almost 3 months down the line but it appears things are getting back to normal now .   There were very strict rules in place from the start which you had to follow but it seems to be worth the while .
I wish other countries would follow suit and stay home for such a short time which is worth it in the long run

The problem is the ambiguity in the rules of our ‘lockdown’. Everyone can keep going to work, everyone is allowed out to exercise, everyone can go to packed supermarkets, incoming flights from most of the other worst afflicted places, public transport still running. No checks of any kind in terms of the screening you mention. I’m pleased you seem to be through the worst of it out there, fingers crossed that things keep going well.

Love the notion that the Chinese authorities locked down to this degree on 23rd January on the back of 25 reported deaths at the time



It was probably around a week later the more stringent measures  were put into place.


I don’t think anybody really believes the true stats that China are putting out there, they were obviously trying to cover it up at the start until they realised they couldn’t. What’s your thoughts from your perspective?
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« Reply #1331 on: April 12, 2020, 08:33:36 AM »

Iran are hiding the truth as well, (according to reports in its opposition press)

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/ncri-statements/statement-human-rights/iran-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-to-23100-in-251-cities-nationwide/
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« Reply #1332 on: April 12, 2020, 08:50:55 AM »

"Will you apologise......" questions even top the inanity of "shouldn't you have done x sooner" questions.


The demanding an apology is inane, I agree. They’re going to have to get used to the ‘sooner’ question though. Even now, we could still implement a lockdown. I’m surprised you thought that point from the Swedish epidemiologist was clever, it really isn’t, all that anybody means when criticising a failure to act ‘sooner’, is inexplicably waiting to act, it’s perfectly valid. In the next 10 days we will be well clear for most deaths in Europe (and 2nd most known in the world), so people won’t stop asking the ‘sooner’ question.

Still no improvement in the government trotting out massively wrong numbers, with no explanation for why they’re wrong. Can’t they just watch Sturgeon and see how easy it is?


Stephen Powis still saying 20,000, we won’t be far off that by this Monday morning (when the ONS update up to 13/04).


Seems mad that it was only a few days ago that they said 7,000 to 20,000 only a few days ago.   It is as unfathomable as when they kept saying it doubled every 5/6 days when it was clearly doubling in less than 3 days.

Anyway, good to see the deaths are starting to level off a bit.   I think schools will be back by half term, though I am struggling to see an end game.  Surely going back to normal before a vaccine just means cases doubling every 3 days again.   Some sort of quasi social distancing may work in the sticks longer term but how do you keep away from other people on a rush hour train/tube?

Really?

Over here we have just had our first two deaths (a 92 & 89 year old) around 250 cases (guess) and our schools are closed til the new school year. I would be amazed if schools opened there in 10 days?


It is Easter here, half term is the end of May.   I just think schools reopen before other things start as the released documents suggest they think it is lower risk than other actions.  Presumably they can partially reopen without the exam cohorts?  There is no point in bringing years 11 and 13 back as there are no GCSEs or A levels?   Just thinking how I'd do it.  

That's what I've read this past week, after May half term at the latest supported by Union of Headteachers and most of the government. As you say sounds like one of the first restrictions they want to lift here.


I had a look at news reports on this. It seems this story first came up 4 days ago some of the wording used is,
"In an interview with Schools Week, NAHT general secretary Paul Whiteman suggested that schools should reopen as soon as it is safe to do so.

We haven’t seen any indication yet that the requirements of social distancing are such that things will change for schools in the short term,’ he said. ‘That said, once the scientific advice is that schools can return safely, they should do so, even if it’s for a very limited period before the summer break, as this will allow young people to reacquaint themselves with the educational environment."

with the government response being,
"A spokesman for the Department for Education said: ‘Schools will remain closed until further notice, except for children of critical workers and the children who are most vulnerable. ‘We will reopen schools when the scientific advice indicates it is safe to do so.’"

That was in the Guardian, the exact story then got picked up by other outlets a couple of days ago and repeated.

And on the Today programme Paul Cosford, a director of Public Health England, was asked about it.

"Asked directly about the idea, he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "All those are the sort of things that will need to be considered and are being considered."
...
Asked directly if schools could open in a first wave of easing restrictions, he said: “Maybe. Some countries are looking at that. Other countries are looking at different ways of doing this.”

However, Prof Cosford also warned we have an “awfully long way to go” before any restrictions are lifted at all, and “several weeks isn’t unreasonable. Let’s hope it’s sooner than that.”

To me it seems a lot like some in education are saying, "we'd like to reopen as soon as possible" and some in the government are saying, "yes that would be good".

From the evidence we have so far I think it's possible schools could partially re-open after half term, but I think we'd need to see more than we have at the moment. e.g. if deaths started a clear downward trajectory as well as spare ICU capacity steadily increasing.


EDIT: obviously extra sources with other evidence is always welcome
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« Reply #1333 on: April 12, 2020, 09:24:16 AM »

"Will you apologise......" questions even top the inanity of "shouldn't you have done x sooner" questions.


The demanding an apology is inane, I agree. They’re going to have to get used to the ‘sooner’ question though. Even now, we could still implement a lockdown. I’m surprised you thought that point from the Swedish epidemiologist was clever, it really isn’t, all that anybody means when criticising a failure to act ‘sooner’, is inexplicably waiting to act, it’s perfectly valid. In the next 10 days we will be well clear for most deaths in Europe (and 2nd most known in the world), so people won’t stop asking the ‘sooner’ question.

Still no improvement in the government trotting out massively wrong numbers, with no explanation for why they’re wrong. Can’t they just watch Sturgeon and see how easy it is?


Stephen Powis still saying 20,000, we won’t be far off that by this Monday morning (when the ONS update up to 13/04).


Seems mad that it was only a few days ago that they said 7,000 to 20,000 only a few days ago.   It is as unfathomable as when they kept saying it doubled every 5/6 days when it was clearly doubling in less than 3 days.

Anyway, good to see the deaths are starting to level off a bit.   I think schools will be back by half term, though I am struggling to see an end game.  Surely going back to normal before a vaccine just means cases doubling every 3 days again.   Some sort of quasi social distancing may work in the sticks longer term but how do you keep away from other people on a rush hour train/tube?

Really?

Over here we have just had our first two deaths (a 92 & 89 year old) around 250 cases (guess) and our schools are closed til the new school year. I would be amazed if schools opened there in 10 days?


It is Easter here, half term is the end of May.   I just think schools reopen before other things start as the released documents suggest they think it is lower risk than other actions.  Presumably they can partially reopen without the exam cohorts?  There is no point in bringing years 11 and 13 back as there are no GCSEs or A levels?   Just thinking how I'd do it.  

That's what I've read this past week, after May half term at the latest supported by Union of Headteachers and most of the government. As you say sounds like one of the first restrictions they want to lift here.


I had a look at news reports on this. It seems this story first came up 4 days ago some of the wording used is,
"In an interview with Schools Week, NAHT general secretary Paul Whiteman suggested that schools should reopen as soon as it is safe to do so.

We haven’t seen any indication yet that the requirements of social distancing are such that things will change for schools in the short term,’ he said. ‘That said, once the scientific advice is that schools can return safely, they should do so, even if it’s for a very limited period before the summer break, as this will allow young people to reacquaint themselves with the educational environment."

with the government response being,
"A spokesman for the Department for Education said: ‘Schools will remain closed until further notice, except for children of critical workers and the children who are most vulnerable. ‘We will reopen schools when the scientific advice indicates it is safe to do so.’"

That was in the Guardian, the exact story then got picked up by other outlets a couple of days ago and repeated.

And on the Today programme Paul Cosford, a director of Public Health England, was asked about it.

"Asked directly about the idea, he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "All those are the sort of things that will need to be considered and are being considered."
...
Asked directly if schools could open in a first wave of easing restrictions, he said: “Maybe. Some countries are looking at that. Other countries are looking at different ways of doing this.”

However, Prof Cosford also warned we have an “awfully long way to go” before any restrictions are lifted at all, and “several weeks isn’t unreasonable. Let’s hope it’s sooner than that.”

To me it seems a lot like some in education are saying, "we'd like to reopen as soon as possible" and some in the government are saying, "yes that would be good".

From the evidence we have so far I think it's possible schools could partially re-open after half term, but I think we'd need to see more than we have at the moment. e.g. if deaths started a clear downward trajectory as well as spare ICU capacity steadily increasing.


EDIT: obviously extra sources with other evidence is always welcome

It remains the case that we don’t have evidence of the role children play in spreading, the key will be their role in asymptomatic spread.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext

I would be surprised if the schools open again this academic year, the picture in the UK compared to our European counterparts will be muddled by how limited our lockdown is. It seems construction workers are going back to work in Spain this week, that will provide another key piece of data to learn from.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 09:45:04 AM by kukushkin88 » Logged
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« Reply #1334 on: April 12, 2020, 09:39:09 AM »


Tuesday will be a big day for our own entry in the truth telling competition. The ONS will confirm the discrepancy between the actual number and the number they read out at the press conference to be several hundred (the following week it will >1000), will they acknowledge this and make the adjustment with an explanation, like Sturgeon/France or will they just read out a wrong number with no explanation and carry on?
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