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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353703 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #1650 on: April 23, 2020, 03:17:40 PM »

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

Yeah, it’s a good criticism. Providing data that most accurately the reflects the current reality in a timely manner, would be a better way of expressing it. The ONS data currently understates the number of Covid deaths. Can we call this a flaw or is it too soon? (looking to Doobs for a steer on this).

They are just reporting what they have seen, so it isn't flawed.  Given the reporting lag, they will always be understaring.  The CMI data included sone extrapolations.  When/if the daily cases drop to low levels I'd expect little difference.   I don't think either us flawed, just different.  All methods will have weaknesses (lag, needs estimation, misses cases...)
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1651 on: April 23, 2020, 03:50:51 PM »

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

Yeah, it’s a good criticism. Providing data that most accurately the reflects the current reality in a timely manner, would be a better way of expressing it. The ONS data currently understates the number of Covid deaths. Can we call this a flaw or is it too soon? (looking to Doobs for a steer on this).

They are just reporting what they have seen, so it isn't flawed.  Given the reporting lag, they will always be understaring.  The CMI data included sone extrapolations.  When/if the daily cases drop to low levels I'd expect little difference.   I don't think either us flawed, just different.  All methods will have weaknesses (lag, needs estimation, misses cases...)

OK 👍, I think I slightly misunderstood. I thought the CMI figures were indicating that a proportion of the already confirmed excess deaths, the ones that weren’t attributed to Covid, should be considered to have happened as a result of the pandemic.
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Woodsey
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« Reply #1652 on: April 23, 2020, 05:35:19 PM »

If they hit 100,000 tests by end of the month what’s the next whine?  Cheesy
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Doobs
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« Reply #1653 on: April 23, 2020, 05:47:56 PM »

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

Yeah, it’s a good criticism. Providing data that most accurately the reflects the current reality in a timely manner, would be a better way of expressing it. The ONS data currently understates the number of Covid deaths. Can we call this a flaw or is it too soon? (looking to Doobs for a steer on this).

They are just reporting what they have seen, so it isn't flawed.  Given the reporting lag, they will always be understaring.  The CMI data included sone extrapolations.  When/if the daily cases drop to low levels I'd expect little difference.   I don't think either us flawed, just different.  All methods will have weaknesses (lag, needs estimation, misses cases...)

OK 👍, I think I slightly misunderstood. I thought the CMI figures were indicating that a proportion of the already confirmed excess deaths, the ones that weren’t attributed to Covid, should be considered to have happened as a result of the pandemic.

I think that is an implication.   I think excess deaths is a good starting point for working out the deaths due to COVID.   Most of the excess will be due to COVID, as it would be some coincidence if there was a sudden increase in heart attacks from 1 April.   Though I am sure you get a few more heart attack deaths amongst the reluctant to go to hospital deaths because of COVID?  It seems clear to me some people will die of non related illnesses as they can't get treatment/diagnoses right now.  So you will get these kind of COVID linked excess deaths amongst people who never had COVID.   I suspect these kind of deaths will not be hugely significant right now, as there is clearly a big upward movement in the very short term in the CMI report I linked to earlier.

Basically starting from excess deaths seems a better start point than daily hospital deaths if you want total COVID deaths.

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Chompy
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« Reply #1654 on: April 24, 2020, 09:42:54 AM »

Trump's work just too funny.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Doobs
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« Reply #1655 on: April 24, 2020, 09:59:33 AM »

Trump's work just too funny.

Not a doctor

Someone got the best camera angle.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10223398150724226&id=1300664084
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nirvana
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« Reply #1656 on: April 24, 2020, 10:16:39 AM »

https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1253474772702429189?s=09

Quite funny following the above

Edit. Watched a few times now. Upgrade to very funny.. I ain't got much on
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 10:20:42 AM by nirvana » Logged

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nirvana
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« Reply #1657 on: April 24, 2020, 11:14:34 AM »

One of the interesting things about this lockdown is watching celebs still trying to be relevant - must be so hard having to sit indoors and not be written about and photographed all the time. Anyway, drawn by twitter had to watch the Elton 'performance'.  Introduced by the totally irrelevant Victoria Beckham, well at least she didn't try singing, the performance was hilarious - not original to say it but was hilariously bad. Almost as bad as this incredible cover of About a Girl by Wes Mudd.




Liked this


https://twitter.com/gretaleejackson/status/1253507484305637376?s=09

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Doobs
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« Reply #1658 on: April 24, 2020, 02:04:36 PM »

This is good to show your kids.   

https://mobile.twitter.com/sentientbomb/status/1252537159321518080

Showed it mine and waited nearly 5 minutes before letting them know it was just a prank. 

The 12 year old sent it to her mates and let them sweat for a good hour.  So proud of her.
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Marky147
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« Reply #1659 on: April 24, 2020, 03:16:59 PM »

This is good to show your kids.   

https://mobile.twitter.com/sentientbomb/status/1252537159321518080

Showed it mine and waited nearly 5 minutes before letting them know it was just a prank. 

The 12 year old sent it to her mates and let them sweat for a good hour.  So proud of her.

Superb Cheesy

Nirvana coming through with the links. Good work, Blonde!
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RickBFA
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« Reply #1660 on: April 24, 2020, 04:06:07 PM »

I know this isn’t exactly news but we have a significant minority of our population that are thick as pigshit.

I don’t walk through the local park because of the number of walkers/runners that don’t seem to know what 2 metres is.

Just walked past and there are 35-40 groups lying in the sun chilling/sunbathing.

It really does beggar belief.
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Marky147
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« Reply #1661 on: April 24, 2020, 04:15:42 PM »

I know this isn’t exactly news but we have a significant majority of our population that are thick as pigshit.

I don’t walk through the local park because of the number of walkers/runners that don’t seem to know what 2 metres is.

Just walked past and there are 35-40 groups lying in the sun chilling/sunbathing.

It really does beggar belief.

FYP
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Marky147
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« Reply #1662 on: April 24, 2020, 04:16:43 PM »

I'm glad that since February I've only left the house for 2 hospital appointments, and to pick my old man up last month.

Would drive me up the wall seeing all these morons bowling around.
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« Reply #1663 on: April 24, 2020, 04:21:28 PM »

Chris Whitty is great. He's faced a solid two hours of questions and never faltered or sidestepped once.
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sonour
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« Reply #1664 on: April 24, 2020, 05:53:36 PM »

Chris Whitty is great. He's faced a solid two hours of questions and never faltered or sidestepped once.

Yes, he’s very, very good.
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