blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
September 26, 2020, 05:57:29 PM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2254146 Posts in 66554 Topics by 16620 Members
Latest Member: EllisonH
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Community Forums
| |-+  The Lounge
| | |-+  COVID19
Mark_Porter, Ironside, Jon MW and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 107 108 109 110 [111] 112 113 114 115 ... 205 Go Down Print
Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 90249 times)
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 14915


View Profile
« Reply #1650 on: April 23, 2020, 03:17:40 PM »

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

Yeah, it’s a good criticism. Providing data that most accurately the reflects the current reality in a timely manner, would be a better way of expressing it. The ONS data currently understates the number of Covid deaths. Can we call this a flaw or is it too soon? (looking to Doobs for a steer on this).

They are just reporting what they have seen, so it isn't flawed.  Given the reporting lag, they will always be understaring.  The CMI data included sone extrapolations.  When/if the daily cases drop to low levels I'd expect little difference.   I don't think either us flawed, just different.  All methods will have weaknesses (lag, needs estimation, misses cases...)
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
kukushkin88
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3877



View Profile
« Reply #1651 on: April 23, 2020, 03:50:51 PM »

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

Yeah, it’s a good criticism. Providing data that most accurately the reflects the current reality in a timely manner, would be a better way of expressing it. The ONS data currently understates the number of Covid deaths. Can we call this a flaw or is it too soon? (looking to Doobs for a steer on this).

They are just reporting what they have seen, so it isn't flawed.  Given the reporting lag, they will always be understaring.  The CMI data included sone extrapolations.  When/if the daily cases drop to low levels I'd expect little difference.   I don't think either us flawed, just different.  All methods will have weaknesses (lag, needs estimation, misses cases...)

OK 👍, I think I slightly misunderstood. I thought the CMI figures were indicating that a proportion of the already confirmed excess deaths, the ones that weren’t attributed to Covid, should be considered to have happened as a result of the pandemic.
Logged
Woodsey
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15846



View Profile
« Reply #1652 on: April 23, 2020, 05:35:19 PM »

If they hit 100,000 tests by end of the month what’s the next whine?  Cheesy
Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 14915


View Profile
« Reply #1653 on: April 23, 2020, 05:47:56 PM »

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

Yeah, it’s a good criticism. Providing data that most accurately the reflects the current reality in a timely manner, would be a better way of expressing it. The ONS data currently understates the number of Covid deaths. Can we call this a flaw or is it too soon? (looking to Doobs for a steer on this).

They are just reporting what they have seen, so it isn't flawed.  Given the reporting lag, they will always be understaring.  The CMI data included sone extrapolations.  When/if the daily cases drop to low levels I'd expect little difference.   I don't think either us flawed, just different.  All methods will have weaknesses (lag, needs estimation, misses cases...)

OK 👍, I think I slightly misunderstood. I thought the CMI figures were indicating that a proportion of the already confirmed excess deaths, the ones that weren’t attributed to Covid, should be considered to have happened as a result of the pandemic.

I think that is an implication.   I think excess deaths is a good starting point for working out the deaths due to COVID.   Most of the excess will be due to COVID, as it would be some coincidence if there was a sudden increase in heart attacks from 1 April.   Though I am sure you get a few more heart attack deaths amongst the reluctant to go to hospital deaths because of COVID?  It seems clear to me some people will die of non related illnesses as they can't get treatment/diagnoses right now.  So you will get these kind of COVID linked excess deaths amongst people who never had COVID.   I suspect these kind of deaths will not be hugely significant right now, as there is clearly a big upward movement in the very short term in the CMI report I linked to earlier.

Basically starting from excess deaths seems a better start point than daily hospital deaths if you want total COVID deaths.

Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Chompy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 11715


Expert


View Profile
« Reply #1654 on: April 24, 2020, 09:42:54 AM »

Trump's work just too funny.
Logged

"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 14915


View Profile
« Reply #1655 on: April 24, 2020, 09:59:33 AM »

Trump's work just too funny.

Not a doctor

Someone got the best camera angle.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10223398150724226&id=1300664084
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
nirvana
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 7335



View Profile
« Reply #1656 on: April 24, 2020, 10:16:39 AM »

https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1253474772702429189?s=09

Quite funny following the above

Edit. Watched a few times now. Upgrade to very funny.. I ain't got much on
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 10:20:42 AM by nirvana » Logged

sola virtus nobilitat
nirvana
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 7335



View Profile
« Reply #1657 on: April 24, 2020, 11:14:34 AM »

One of the interesting things about this lockdown is watching celebs still trying to be relevant - must be so hard having to sit indoors and not be written about and photographed all the time. Anyway, drawn by twitter had to watch the Elton 'performance'.  Introduced by the totally irrelevant Victoria Beckham, well at least she didn't try singing, the performance was hilarious - not original to say it but was hilariously bad. Almost as bad as this incredible cover of About a Girl by Wes Mudd.




Liked this


https://twitter.com/gretaleejackson/status/1253507484305637376?s=09

Logged

sola virtus nobilitat
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 14915


View Profile
« Reply #1658 on: April 24, 2020, 02:04:36 PM »

This is good to show your kids.   

https://mobile.twitter.com/sentientbomb/status/1252537159321518080

Showed it mine and waited nearly 5 minutes before letting them know it was just a prank. 

The 12 year old sent it to her mates and let them sweat for a good hour.  So proud of her.
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 20777



View Profile
« Reply #1659 on: April 24, 2020, 03:16:59 PM »

This is good to show your kids.   

https://mobile.twitter.com/sentientbomb/status/1252537159321518080

Showed it mine and waited nearly 5 minutes before letting them know it was just a prank. 

The 12 year old sent it to her mates and let them sweat for a good hour.  So proud of her.

Superb Cheesy

Nirvana coming through with the links. Good work, Blonde!
Logged
RickBFA
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 1958


View Profile
« Reply #1660 on: April 24, 2020, 04:06:07 PM »

I know this isn’t exactly news but we have a significant minority of our population that are thick as pigshit.

I don’t walk through the local park because of the number of walkers/runners that don’t seem to know what 2 metres is.

Just walked past and there are 35-40 groups lying in the sun chilling/sunbathing.

It really does beggar belief.
Logged
Marky147
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 20777



View Profile
« Reply #1661 on: April 24, 2020, 04:15:42 PM »

I know this isn’t exactly news but we have a significant majority of our population that are thick as pigshit.

I don’t walk through the local park because of the number of walkers/runners that don’t seem to know what 2 metres is.

Just walked past and there are 35-40 groups lying in the sun chilling/sunbathing.

It really does beggar belief.

FYP
Logged
Marky147
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 20777



View Profile
« Reply #1662 on: April 24, 2020, 04:16:43 PM »

I'm glad that since February I've only left the house for 2 hospital appointments, and to pick my old man up last month.

Would drive me up the wall seeing all these morons bowling around.
Logged
RED-DOG
International Lover World Wide Playboy
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 44788



View Profile WWW
« Reply #1663 on: April 24, 2020, 04:21:28 PM »

Chris Whitty is great. He's faced a solid two hours of questions and never faltered or sidestepped once.
Logged

Youth fades but immaturity can last forever.
sonour
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 1664


View Profile
« Reply #1664 on: April 24, 2020, 05:53:36 PM »

Chris Whitty is great. He's faced a solid two hours of questions and never faltered or sidestepped once.

Yes, he’s very, very good.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 107 108 109 110 [111] 112 113 114 115 ... 205 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.263 seconds with 21 queries.