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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 90279 times)
AndrewT
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« Reply #2835 on: July 03, 2020, 03:42:20 PM »

Pubs here in Ireland opened earlier this week in 'restaurant mode' so you can't just go for a few pints, you have to have a meal and can stay no longer than 1h45m.

So what's happened? Pubs handing over fake food vouchers with pints so customers can tell the Garda 'I'm just waiting for my food' if any of them do spot checks and find lads sat there with pints and no food. Smiley
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« Reply #2836 on: July 03, 2020, 04:19:44 PM »

a 6am re-open for pubs tomorrow is stupefyingly daft isn't it?

starting on a Saturday was odd enough, but people are going to be in a state with no chance of acting responsibly?

They're doing as much as they can to set up the public to take the blame when it all goes to shit. I can't see what else the strategy can be.

My guess is that they figured if they said they could re-open from some point in the afternoon or evening (or even lunch) then a large crowd would congregate just before opening time.

Opening from 6am means people entering and leaving at different times.

A similar logic to getting rid of last orders but to try and distance people rather than because of drunken behaviour.

If that is the case then I don't understand why they wouldn't choose a random mid week day to do so.

And I also think it severely over estimates the general public.

- - - -

What will be interesting will be the extent of any second wave.

Historically and analytically the fewer people who get infected in the first wave the more will get infected in the second.

But we've never had this level of communication and technology before, we haven't had a pandemic on this scale for a long time either.

- if the second wave is negatively correlated to the first wave then the government's action could take on another perspective.

The analysis suggested that the second wave would be 'due' pretty close to flu season - if you could kick start it early, then we could be in a downward trend when flu season kicks in and spread out the burden on the NHS.


For what it's worth I don't think the government are any where near smart enough to strategise this.

I think, at some level, they decided that the general public were going to increasingly start breaking lockdown restrictions after 3 months anyway so they might as well try and control how it's eased rather than leave it to the whim of the mob.
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« Reply #2837 on: July 03, 2020, 08:11:57 PM »

Pubs here in Ireland opened earlier this week in 'restaurant mode' so you can't just go for a few pints, you have to have a meal and can stay no longer than 1h45m.

So what's happened? Pubs handing over fake food vouchers with pints so customers can tell the Garda 'I'm just waiting for my food' if any of them do spot checks and find lads sat there with pints and no food. Smiley

At the end of the 19th century in New York, they had a similar problem with the rules for prohibiton, you could only order alcohol with food. So they served you a rubber sandwich. Publicans are smart!
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TightEnd
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« Reply #2838 on: July 04, 2020, 10:54:29 AM »

Almost like being part of some organisation that enables cooperation would be helpful

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« Reply #2839 on: July 04, 2020, 11:43:29 AM »

a 6am re-open for pubs tomorrow is stupefyingly daft isn't it?

starting on a Saturday was odd enough, but people are going to be in a state with no chance of acting responsibly?

I think this was partly to stop places opening up at midnight
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« Reply #2840 on: July 04, 2020, 07:39:07 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53291281

region in spain going back into lockdown
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« Reply #2841 on: July 07, 2020, 07:13:58 PM »

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending26june2020


Total deaths in the U.K. in the last two weeks have been lower than the 5year average...

Given the interpretation of these figures when they were above the average (that there must have been more COVID deaths than was reported elsewhere) can we now imply that the last two week’s worth of COVID deaths was exaggerated? ****




**** obviously not, because the massive attention paid to the earlier figures was misguided at best.
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« Reply #2842 on: July 07, 2020, 07:31:30 PM »

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending26june2020


Total deaths in the U.K. in the last two weeks have been lower than the 5year average...

Given the interpretation of these figures when they were above the average (that there must have been more COVID deaths than was reported elsewhere) can we now imply that the last two week’s worth of COVID deaths was exaggerated? ****




**** obviously not, because the massive attention paid to the earlier figures was misguided at best.

Misguided at best?  That seems a bold conclusion.

Some years are worse than others.  If Covid deaths are now down in the 10s each day then they are going to get lost in the variance when the average number of deaths is normally 1500 a day.  If the total Covid deaths are in 4 figures then the daily variance in deaths doesn't matter so much.  You can see that there are roughly 1,000 extra deaths. It doesn't really matter if the actual Covid deaths are 950 or 1050 each day, as excess deaths is a decent proxy for the actual number.  Now it likely isn't.   

FWIW Before Covid came along, the mortality rate for the year was below the average, probably due to a mild winter and a fairly innocuous flu season.
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« Reply #2843 on: July 08, 2020, 12:26:44 PM »

I read they believe it is below average as a percentage of people who would have died around this time have already died due to COVID.

Not sure if there is any truth in that but it makes sense.
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« Reply #2844 on: July 08, 2020, 03:49:10 PM »

I read they believe it is below average as a percentage of people who would have died around this time have already died due to COVID.

Not sure if there is any truth in that but it makes sense.

I don't know who they are, but is possibly just a combination of a few things:
lower than usual mortality without Covid in 2019/20 due to mortality improvements over time/ mild winter/ low mortality from flu.  You'd expect lower mortality this year than the averages simply because we had 3 bad flu seasons recently and the winter was mild, so logically any year where bad winters or bad flu seasons didn't happen would by below average,
variance in weekly mortality numbers,
some people who were going to die dying a bit earlier because they got Covid,
some people avoided dying due to restrictions on movements (less car accidents etc)

I don't think it is at all clear what part of the improvement is due to each of the above reasons, so don't think anybody can be that certain.  I expect it is just a combination of things and there isn't one definitive reason.

The CMI mortality monitor came out a couple of days ago.  https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality-monitor-Week-26-2020-v01-2020-07-07.pdf It seems clear from that document that this was a below average year for mortality before Covid came along https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality-monitor-Week-26-2020-v01-2020-07-07.pdf .  You can see in chart 1 that 2019/20 was experiencing lower mortality than any year other than 2014 and 2019.
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« Reply #2845 on: July 14, 2020, 01:32:47 PM »

Richard Osman @richardosman
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Look, most people are going to wear masks, just like most people were kind and careful throughout lockdown. So stop engaging with the 'no facemasks' gang. They don't mean it, they're showing off to their mates. Give your attention to quiet, empathetic, secure people.

Well sayed tall fella. The worst kind of people are the ones that think they're that much smarter than everyone else but are, in fact, basically dim.
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« Reply #2846 on: July 14, 2020, 01:46:26 PM »

Just had a look through the first few replies to that, and I'm glad I never have to deal with any of the general public.
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« Reply #2847 on: July 14, 2020, 01:54:05 PM »

Tbf, Osman's used to dealing with the dregs of society from his role on Pointless.
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« Reply #2848 on: July 14, 2020, 02:09:22 PM »

Tbf, Osman's used to dealing with the dregs of society from his role on Pointless.

Cheesy
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« Reply #2849 on: July 14, 2020, 06:16:15 PM »

I was out doing my weekly shop today and pretty surprised to see no more than 10% wearing masks in Asda, Hyson Green.

I was expecting to see more like 50%.
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