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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 237509 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #3360 on: November 15, 2020, 12:29:57 AM »


I saw something yesterday that suggested that they now had the highest rate of cases in Europe to the size of population.   Guess they don't figure much on lockdown sceptics right now, though chances are they will just stop the data when it is inconvenient. 

They have just bought in some more restrictions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity

Saturday's death data for the UK wasn't great and some of the preliminary daily actuals are already pretty high.  It isn't really a surprise given the reported cases were above 500 for 3 days in a row.  There are signs the cases may be falling in the North West (which was the hotspot) and in Wales and Scotland (where there were earlier stronger restrictions), but I don't think we can be sure that the cases are falling nationwide. 

I don't know where they can go at the end of this lockdown period unless there is a much more significant change in outlook.   The Covid Recovery Group seem to be really badly timed with all the bad data coming from Europe and the US too. 

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« Reply #3361 on: November 15, 2020, 09:10:08 AM »

Hopefully the Pfizer vaccine will get sign off later this month and the Oxford one will give good results and sign off in Dec.

Vaccinations will then start , maybe they can do 1m injections a week, starting in Dec.

2m in the NHS, 0.5m in care home plus staff (let’s say 0.5m) then all the over 70s 3.3m totals 6.3m people so 12m doses, if the UK does million a week  - so we are looking at end of Feb for the most vulnerable to have some protection.(there are lots of vulnerable under 70s as well but they are lower down the list)

Christmas shopping with 2 months purchases  compacted into 3 weeks is going to be a mess, huge queues etc etc

Then many people will meet for Xmas day - hospitals in Jan will be overloaded, vaccinations won’t have  taken effect in time.

Meeting at Xmas needs to be severely limited, then give the hope of family meals in late Feb when the older population will be safer.

Age breakdown of auK

0-4   3,857,263
5-9   4,149,852
10-14   3,953,866
15-19   3,656,968
20-24   4,153,080
25-29   4,514,249
30-34   4,497,132
35-39   4,395,667
40-44   4,019,539
45-49   4,402,122
50-54   4,661,015
55-59   4,405,908
60-64   3,755,185
65-69   3,368,199
70-74   3,318,867
75-79   2,325,296
80-84   1,715,328
85-89   1,042,090
90 and over   605,181
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the sicilian
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« Reply #3362 on: November 16, 2020, 01:31:40 AM »

Fingers crossed
« Last Edit: November 16, 2020, 01:45:15 AM by the sicilian » Logged

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« Reply #3363 on: November 16, 2020, 07:55:22 PM »

I need to learn to count.

3m NHS and care homes, 3.3m over 80s and 5.5m in their 70s
total 11.8m

Two doses makes 23.6m injections, at 1m per week is mid May which would be far more depressing.

Which means they need 2m injections a week to make an impact.

Anything after Easter will only see big benefits in winter 21//22.

Easter school hols then the seasonal effects of lowering R should limit it the excess deaths till sept 21.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3364 on: November 18, 2020, 10:46:48 PM »

Dr John update with some numbers.

Only need to watch the first two minutes if you're a tiktokker Smiley

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« Reply #3365 on: November 19, 2020, 08:15:01 AM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.
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« Reply #3366 on: November 19, 2020, 08:40:20 AM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.


Congratulations.

Your life will never be the same but it's worth it.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3367 on: November 19, 2020, 03:14:57 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.

Congratulations, mate!

Hope you manage to get them home before the weekend.
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Doobs
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« Reply #3368 on: November 19, 2020, 03:43:46 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.

My missus had two huge sessions, both over 24 hours, and I can't imagine 5 days of that.   Hope Covid meant you didn't have to alternate between standing and the most uncomfortable seat in the World for 5 days.   

Hope they both get out soon and get plenty of sleep now.  As Red says they are great and completely worth it once you get through the initial few months.
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« Reply #3369 on: November 19, 2020, 04:28:35 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.

My missus had two huge sessions, both over 24 hours, and I can't imagine 5 days of that.   Hope Covid meant you didn't have to alternate between standing and the most uncomfortable seat in the World for 5 days.   

Hope they both get out soon and get plenty of sleep now.  As Red says they are great and completely worth it once you get through the initial few months.

I’ll take the overs.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3370 on: November 19, 2020, 04:48:21 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.

My missus had two huge sessions, both over 24 hours, and I can't imagine 5 days of that.   Hope Covid meant you didn't have to alternate between standing and the most uncomfortable seat in the World for 5 days.   

Hope they both get out soon and get plenty of sleep now.  As Red says they are great and completely worth it once you get through the initial few months.

I’ll take the overs.

My parents would probably say 4 decades Grin
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« Reply #3371 on: November 19, 2020, 06:17:11 PM »

Congratulations on your new arrival.
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« Reply #3372 on: November 19, 2020, 08:18:48 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.

Jesus, congrats mate. Hope your partner (Tasha?) is doing well after 5 days of contractions(!) and baby obv.
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« Reply #3373 on: November 19, 2020, 09:55:45 PM »

Thanks gang, Tasha and George both doing well. Think they will be allowed home tomorrow afternoon. One more night of sleep. :-)
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« Reply #3374 on: November 20, 2020, 12:41:10 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-54353697

This article struck a chord with me today. We are due to have our first child in 6 weeks time. This is very "first world problems" but we didn't get the opportunity to go to the scans together or attend any midwife appointment stuff. I am the only person allowed to be at the birth which is the most upsetting - my partner is obviously very nervous and would have felt more comforted to have her mum and family in the room or waiting close by.

No complaints of course but a very strange time to be going through this. Will be a positive end to a crap year. Generation COVID!

Little boy arrived yesterday after partner started contractions last Friday - FIVE days! They may need to stay in for a couple of nights and I can only visit between 3pm-4pm. Hoping I might be able to get them home today. Terrifying but amazing.

My missus had two huge sessions, both over 24 hours, and I can't imagine 5 days of that.   Hope Covid meant you didn't have to alternate between standing and the most uncomfortable seat in the World for 5 days.   

Hope they both get out soon and get plenty of sleep now.  As Red says they are great and completely worth it once you get through the initial few months.

I’ll take the overs.

My parents would probably say 4 decades Grin

Approaching that mark as a parent myself, and I’m still inclined to take the overs on 4 decades..l
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
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