Tips for Tikay

[peejaytwo]

Player Performance - Team B Player 7   Hide
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Samit Patel Over (73.5)   
5/6
Samit Patel Under (73.5)   
5/6

PLAYER PERFORMANCE   3rd Test - S.Patel Player Performance - Kolkata
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Under 55.5   1.90    
Over 55.5   1.90    
 
 
     
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paddy power and cricbetlive seem to disagree on the merits of Samit Patel.
SPIN have him in for 53 runs so overs seems the way to go with any wickets/catches in for free (nearly),however i would think that the compilers are pretty sharp at crickbetlive.
i may just go for the 18 point middle

hope that makes sense

[TheChipPrince]

Champions league.

The 1st two teams in the betting are Barca (13/5) and Real (7/2), the next 2 are German, Bayern (8/1), Dortmund (9/1). Then we get the English, French, Italian, Portugese, Ukrainian teams.
Keep going down and we arrive at the 3rd German team, Shalke 04, who can be backed @ 66/1.

If we look at the German league, Bayern are cruising and look the dominant team.
Then comes Leverkusen, then Dortmund and Schalke in 3rd and 4th separated by 2 points.

So we have 2 German teams, both of whom have qualified for last 16 and likely to top their groups (albeit Dortmunds was much tougher), looking like they are similarly matched in their national league and yet one is 9/1 4th favs for the Champs league and the other is 66/1 12th favs.
And Schalke didn't play Champs league last year but 2 years ago were beaten by Man United in the semi finals.
We all know the Germans are coming (in a couple of years they may be the dominant league in Europe?) but is there value here on Schalke, or conversely, are Dortmund too short?

The only league I know anything about is the Premier league and I don't even watch Champs League, let alone the Bundseliga so perhaps the prices are correct but would welcome other views.

Think some regular posts on here are on a german team to win the CL pre comp at 10-1 which is looking sweet

Have seen Dortmund a few times on the tv, mighty impressive team. Think they might go shorter

My knowledge of Schalke is far less, but the price does look to be anomalous

To be fair I only backed it because Mr Langdon in the Champs League RP pullout had it as their main bet, think the price had changed by lunchtime on the day of release.

[AndrewT]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

Can't believe I would ever do this, but I'm going to have to disagree with Dubai on a bet recommend.

Kate has hyperemesis gravidarum (severe morning sickness) and this is linked to a higher concentration of something called human chorionic gonadotropin, which is more common when the baby is a girl.

As is common on this thread I present a paper from The Lancet to back up my argument, which found that in the cases that were looked at when the mother was admitted to hospital in the first three months (as Kate has), the baby was a boy only 44.3% of the time, compared to 51.4% of all births being male.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(05)74029-0/fulltext

So, we're getting evens on a 4/5 shot.

Recommend bet on Girl an Evens.

[The Camel]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

Can't believe I would ever do this, but I'm going to have to disagree with Dubai on a bet recommend.

Kate has hyperemesis gravidarum (severe morning sickness) and this is linked to a higher concentration of something called human chorionic gonadotropin, which is more common when the baby is a girl.

As is common on this thread I present a paper from The Lancet to back up my argument, which found that in the cases that were looked at when the mother was admitted to hospital in the first three months (as Kate has), the baby was a boy only 44.3% of the time, compared to 51.4% of all births being male.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(05)74029-0/fulltext

So, we're getting evens on a 4/5 shot.

Recommend bet on Girl an Evens.

Excellent stuff.

[Dubai]

Counter argument would be if she wasn't a Royal she wouldn't be admitted in her current condition making the statistics irrelevant

And obviously the one to bale everyone out. Lol sample size

[bobby1]

I've just been knocked back to a tenner on the 'What day will the baby be born on' market.

That will teach me to open accounts in the name of HRH Prince William and try to bet obscure markets with my first bet.

Monday ftw btw

[tikay]

Morning, all.

I've slept - if only a little - on it and have the prices as being about the same in terms of value (Kramnik has less chance of winning than McShane but that is reflected in the price).

The deciding factor us that Kramnik is our main rival in the overall market. If we have £5 on him to win today:

- if he wins, we win £25 but we have a horse very much in contention at the half way point
- if he draws or loses, we lose £5 but Carlsen has likely made ground on him.

Difference between this and the bet I proposed the other day is that Kramnik isn't playing Carlsen, so Carlsen can win/lose/draw independently.

Kramnik at 5/1 seems generous to me. I think we might have an "in". The reason for this is I think the odds-setter has seen these two solid, strong defenders and decided to press the draw. I can see Kramnik creating imbalances in the position and looking to get a different result. This is one you look at and say Draw but they haven't played as often in the last couple of years as people might think, and I suspect Kramnik has been looking in his preparations at ways to open Anand up.

Herein, a recommend: Kramnik £5 @ 5/1 with Ladbrokes

ON (Note - 11/2!)

(Ladbrokes)

Selection11/2 - Vladimir Kramnik

EventVishy Anand v Vladimir Kramnik London Chess Classic

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Vladimir Kramnik
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential Return: £32.50
Time: 04/12/12 13:02
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000215

[Tal]

Tikay 1
Early bird 0


As for the baby, remember that sex doesn't affect succession, so there was no incentive for them to try for a boy (if such things are possible).

[bobby1]

If we are getting all Royal baby feverish I suggest £15 on baby to be born on a Monday at 6/1. Supposed to be around 8 weeks pregnant now, which gives a due date of the first week of July. The 1st of July is a Monday.

Princess Diana's birthday was on the first of July. Even if that doesn't work you still have the right price for every other Monday.

I think the weekend days are too short, nobody wants to be going to hospital at the weekends in July with all those pre season football injuries taking up loads of attention and no sandwiches in the vending machine.

[The Camel]

The magic of the Cup.

Anything can happen.

Well, not really.

Only 3 times in the last 24 years has the Cup been won by a team other than Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool.

The "big" clubs almost certainly will provide the winner.

Let's have a look at the third round draw this year:

West Ham v Man Utd
Southampton v Chelsea
Swansea v Arsenal
Man City v Watford
Tottenham v Coventry
Lincoln or Macclesfield v Liverpool

The top 3 matches are very tough, Tottenham have an easy draw but their commitment to this competition must be doubtful if they are pushing for a Champions league spot. Same goes with Man City and the title (although with a bigger squad, they probably will have a decent crack at this).

But with nothing else to play for and a a gimme in third round, I think 11/1 about Liverpool is too big (Blue Squirrel and Sid James)

I suggest backing them and laying off on Betfair (currently 11.5-12) just before the fourth round draw is made.

Suggest £100 Liverpool to win the FA Cup at 11/1

[tikay]

^^^^^

Audible gasps from the collective Freddies......

[bobby1]

The back to lay on Liverpool for the Cup looks a good strategy. You have a good chance of them being shorter if one of the big teams gets knocked out and they have 3 tricky away ties there. Obv there is a small mark up as Liverpool have to win but tho they are poor they surely aren't so poor to be knocked out in that tie.

[Tal]

Let me get my pen.

I made a list of simple rules for posting on Fred a few weeks back:
 
1. Always lay Liverpool
2. Never advocate greening out unless Camel is on holiday in Borneo.
3. Don't argue with Dubai or Hector

I had it laminated as well...

[Dubai]

I've just been knocked back to a tenner on the 'What day will the baby be born on' market.

That will teach me to open accounts in the name of HRH Prince William and try to bet obscure markets with my first bet.

Monday ftw btw

Tuesday's and Monday's are highest % wise. I typed out a post and deleted it last night as basic reason was because most c sections are pencilled in at start of weeks and also women naturally relax more at weekends so come into labour at end of it

[tikay]

Let me get my pen.

I made a list of simple rules for posting on Fred a few weeks back:
 
1. Always lay Liverpool
2. Never advocate greening out unless Camel is on holiday in Borneo.
3. Don't argue with Dubai or Hector

I had it laminated as well...

Today, the world went mad Tal.

Did you know - DID YOU KNOW - that Dubai - DUBAI - suggested we bet on the gender of an unborn baby - at EVENS?

AndrewT - Mr Electoral College Bloody Expert - then refutes it was a Lancet article.

Now we want to get with Liverpool.

Makes Ant, with suggestions for Palace to remain unbeaten untuil the next millenium, look almost sensible.

I'm SO disappointed in Dubai.