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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 10759204 times)
tikay
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« Reply #71445 on: March 17, 2014, 02:57:22 PM »


That seems like you are a bit frustrated at this, Doobsy.

I know that you, above all others, have put a ton of work into the Free Bets thinking, & the actual bets, but I can't see the harm in a fresh pair of eyes looking at them, & us debating them generally.


Both arrboy & sonour came relatively late to Fred, but they've given us more width, & I think it's good to see different views.

For those who have not seen it, the "Maths Thread" is here.....


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

Worth a read.
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sonour
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« Reply #71446 on: March 17, 2014, 03:07:57 PM »


We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9


If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.






Yes but my point is, because of the reasons I have stated, we are not finding the right bets.

I bumped the maths in betting thread for this discussion.  That way we can see the discussion properly and it doesn't keep getting lost and then repeated.  

Previously Arbboy suggested backing golfers, I responded pointing out Hills were usually pretty low at pricing up golfers, and included the maths and expected losses. Today Arbboy suggests backing golfers.  

Today doubleup again produces some more maths suggesting arbbing isn't the most profitable option in the long run, you respond by just stating our bets are wrong, no maths, nada.  I have a feeling of deja vu at this point.  

Please put it on the other thread, and people who want to can discuss it and the argument can be properly started and properly finished.  

I simply haven't the time to find the absolute perfect free bet every time, or for these infernal ever repeating arguments.  If it isn't this one, it is the one about whether they belong on the thread at all.  No other bets get this amount of scrutiny.  These are only £25 bets, and I get zero profit from the time I spend doing them here.  I'd rather just spend time with my family, play a bit of poker, rather than try and eek out a few more pennies or work out the absolutely perfect way for other people to make a fiver. 

We have just been the victim of a bit of bad variance on thread, off thread I have done fine.  We have probably had some bad free bets, and some bad non free bets over the last year.  Every so often something really terrible will get through, but overall we have been fine.

I am done. I have been doing this too long, and am happy for anybody to take it over and mould it whatever way they like.  The maths is available on the other thread so people can just do their own thing. I will just stick to standard value bets on thread from now on. 


That's just the point isn't it, no one has the time to find the perfect free bet every time. If you think we have just been the victim of a bit of bad variance then that's good enough for me.
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aaron1867
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« Reply #71447 on: March 17, 2014, 03:11:42 PM »

Doobs, you spend more time in this thread than anyone else & sometimes you do show the maths to help, but so many times when questioned on something, you always get the "i've not got time to do x,y,z"

I think you have got enough time to be honest, like said, you must spend 50 hours a week in this thread alone
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Omm
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« Reply #71448 on: March 17, 2014, 03:11:49 PM »

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6k2YEc6dozA

Can't get this to work, help!
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Marky147
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« Reply #71449 on: March 17, 2014, 03:15:36 PM »



Can't get this to work, help!

Wink
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arbboy
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« Reply #71450 on: March 17, 2014, 03:51:23 PM »

Doobs, you spend more time in this thread than anyone else & sometimes you do show the maths to help, but so many times when questioned on something, you always get the "i've not got time to do x,y,z"

I think you have got enough time to be honest, like said, you must spend 50 hours a week in this thread alone

Doobs math's is always spot on.  That isn't what is being debated here.  We are debating whether to embrace variance on big priced free bet selections or go down the opposite route of reducing variance potentially at a small commission cost.  Nice try though aaron in bringing some needle to the discussion.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2014, 03:58:10 PM by arbboy » Logged
Kmac84
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« Reply #71451 on: March 17, 2014, 03:57:45 PM »

Personally I think too much time, money and effort is spent on the whole free bet situation. 

I don't doubt the Maths is correct, but its boring.  I'd prefer we backed every suggestion of Ants with the write-up, Dubais with the max and Chompy's for the giggles just to see Tikays blood pressure go up than use free bets every week. 

Gambling is subjective and just because the Maths says something is correct doesn't necessarily make it right to blindly follow something/someone the sample size needed to prove the true value may never be determined.

Regards,
Tuppenceworth FC
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Doobs
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« Reply #71452 on: March 17, 2014, 04:07:42 PM »

Doobs, you spend more time in this thread than anyone else & sometimes you do show the maths to help, but so many times when questioned on something, you always get the "i've not got time to do x,y,z"

I think you have got enough time to be honest, like said, you must spend 50 hours a week in this thread alone

Doobs math's is always spot on.  That isn't what is being debated here.  We are debating whether to embrace variance on big priced free bet selections or go down the opposite route of reducing variance potentially at a small commission cost.  Nice try though aaron in bringing some needle to the discussion.

I have replied here

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.30

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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #71453 on: March 17, 2014, 04:09:44 PM »

Personally I think too much time, money and effort is spent on the whole free bet situation. 

I don't doubt the Maths is correct, but its boring.  I'd prefer we backed every suggestion of Ants with the write-up, Dubais with the max and Chompy's for the giggles just to see Tikays blood pressure go up than use free bets every week. 

Gambling is subjective and just because the Maths says something is correct doesn't necessarily make it right to blindly follow something/someone the sample size needed to prove the true value may never be determined.

Regards,
Tuppenceworth FC

Being a winning gambler generally is boring.  The guys that find it exciting generally lose.  Gambling on free bets etc isn't subjective in the slightest.  If the maths say it is correct then it is correct.  Absorbing variance is a totally different factor which is the issue being discussed here predominately to avoid confusion.





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redarmi
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« Reply #71454 on: March 17, 2014, 04:20:52 PM »

Personally I think too much time, money and effort is spent on the whole free bet situation. 

I don't doubt the Maths is correct, but its boring.  I'd prefer we backed every suggestion of Ants with the write-up, Dubais with the max and Chompy's for the giggles just to see Tikays blood pressure go up than use free bets every week. 

Gambling is subjective and just because the Maths says something is correct doesn't necessarily make it right to blindly follow something/someone the sample size needed to prove the true value may never be determined.

Regards,
Tuppenceworth FC

The thing is that these free bets are so ridiculously valuable overall that it is going to be impossible to lose on them.  If you look at something like an even money shot in an 5 runner race what you eanr from getting a free bet worth a pony if it comes second is a huge advantage.  The whole discussion about how best to use the bets effectively comes down to whether we are making that pony worth 24 or 23.55 (im using a US keyboard and cba finding the pound sign) and, whilst that is theoreticaly interesting, the time spent finding the most optimal way to use the bet is probably not the best use of time for anyone smart enough to be exploiting edges like these because at the end of the day if you are lucky it will be worth a quid or something ridiculous.  Ultimately the argument about whether we should be having them or not is, whilst fairly boring on a day to day basis, solved.  They are essential ways to pick up a fiver or whatever without thinking every time they are offered.  Whether that should be 5.25 or not comes down to the degree of nittiness of the individual I suppose but it certainly isnt something for anyone to get het up about and from that pertspective I would suggest Doobs doesn't have the time to find the perfect bet.  As Sonour said earlier, he thinks it is a fairly good use and he has run a bit bad and that should be good enough for any of us.  
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arbboy
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« Reply #71455 on: March 17, 2014, 04:32:22 PM »

I very rarely encounter free bets where the stake isn't refunded as the vast majority of my business is done on bf.  My only real experience of them is when opening new accounts with firms and because of the crazy ladbrokes promo on the chelsea v man u game when i ended up with 60 £25 freebets which i had 7 days to use and i just wanted the least swingy way to effectively convert them back to cash.  I didn't find it an issue finding numerous big prices at ladbrokes which i could lay at shorter prices on bf to convert these back into cash. 

The other option was to have £1500 invested in 20/1-100/1 shots and just roll with it and potentially iron out £1500 in real cash effectively on events i didn't especially have a view on but i was forced to invest due to the 7 day expiry date of the free bets.  I wouldn't have backed any of the selections with my own cash if i didn't have the free bets as i had no strong view on the events.  Therefore i just saw it as a manner to convert free bets into cash with the least potential variance as i had made plenty of cash already out of the promotion.
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redarmi
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« Reply #71456 on: March 17, 2014, 04:38:04 PM »

I very rarely encounter free bets where the stake isn't refunded as the vast majority of my business is done on bf.  My only real experience of them is when opening new accounts with firms and because of the crazy ladbrokes promo on the chelsea v man u game when i ended up with 60 £25 freebets which i had 7 days to use and i just wanted the least swingy way to effectively convert them back to cash.  I didn't find it an issue finding numerous big prices at ladbrokes which i could lay at shorter prices on bf to convert these back into cash. 

The other option was to have £1500 invested in 20/1-100/1 shots and just roll with it and potentially iron out £1500 in real cash effectively on events i didn't especially have a view on but i was forced to invest due to the 7 day expiry date of the free bets.  I wouldn't have backed any of the selections with my own cash if i didn't have the free bets as i had no strong view on the events.  Therefore i just saw it as a manner to convert free bets into cash with the least potential variance as i had made plenty of cash already out of the promotion.

Like I said....nit!!!
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arbboy
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« Reply #71457 on: March 17, 2014, 04:45:45 PM »

I very rarely encounter free bets where the stake isn't refunded as the vast majority of my business is done on bf.  My only real experience of them is when opening new accounts with firms and because of the crazy ladbrokes promo on the chelsea v man u game when i ended up with 60 £25 freebets which i had 7 days to use and i just wanted the least swingy way to effectively convert them back to cash.  I didn't find it an issue finding numerous big prices at ladbrokes which i could lay at shorter prices on bf to convert these back into cash. 

The other option was to have £1500 invested in 20/1-100/1 shots and just roll with it and potentially iron out £1500 in real cash effectively on events i didn't especially have a view on but i was forced to invest due to the 7 day expiry date of the free bets.  I wouldn't have backed any of the selections with my own cash if i didn't have the free bets as i had no strong view on the events.  Therefore i just saw it as a manner to convert free bets into cash with the least potential variance as i had made plenty of cash already out of the promotion.

Like I said....nit!!!

Comical thing is 2 of the 100/1 shots actually won.  A golfer and a safety as the first score in the superbowl.   
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Kmac84
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« Reply #71458 on: March 17, 2014, 05:15:43 PM »

I think that offer on the Man U v Chelsea game was a completely different beast and  had to be taken advantage of. The horse bets of firing a pony at every televised  race on to get a token back if 2nd is boring imo and could be left off Fred for two reasons 1) those who want to grind that sort of betting out can presumably do so and know what ones are value and what isn't and it saves this argument coming up, rinsed and repeated every few months and 2) the admin work for it must be a pain in the hole.

It seems that Tony gets flustered when these bets are expiring and he had to find a home for them queue several suggestions on X number of + 10/1 shots being lofted about.  I would also bet that a number of the recreational punters on here don't have the time, money or will power to keep betting these efforts and just chalk it down to variance when they piss it away. A happy medium has to be struck.  I wonder how many times Channing, Dubai, Chompy etc take advantage of such offers? 

Profitability wise even if doobs says he's doing well off Fred I would say these bets have harmed Fred long term I can recall 1 winner from the free bets in the time I have been reading and it feels like we are backing at least 4 a week. No disrespect to Tikay but by the time variance levels out he's  probably more likely to have one foot in the grave, if not both.

I would argue the same point about all the tiddlearse bets if we can't get close to the whole amount on we should just ignore the bets.
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geordieneil
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« Reply #71459 on: March 17, 2014, 05:39:03 PM »

Personally I think too much time, money and effort is spent on the whole free bet situation.  

I don't doubt the Maths is correct, but its boring.  I'd prefer we backed every suggestion of Ants with the write-up, Dubais with the max and Chompy's for the giggles just to see Tikays blood pressure go up than use free bets every week.  

Gambling is subjective and just because the Maths says something is correct doesn't necessarily make it right to blindly follow something/someone the sample size needed to prove the true value may never be determined.

Regards,
Tuppenceworth FC

The thing is that these free bets are so ridiculously valuable overall that it is going to be impossible to lose on them.  If you look at something like an even money shot in an 5 runner race what you eanr from getting a free bet worth a pony if it comes second is a huge advantage.  The whole discussion about how best to use the bets effectively comes down to whether we are making that pony worth 24 or 23.55 (im using a US keyboard and cba finding the pound sign) and, whilst that is theoreticaly interesting, the time spent finding the most optimal way to use the bet is probably not the best use of time for anyone smart enough to be exploiting edges like these because at the end of the day if you are lucky it will be worth a quid or something ridiculous.  Ultimately the argument about whether we should be having them or not is, whilst fairly boring on a day to day basis, solved.  They are essential ways to pick up a fiver or whatever without thinking every time they are offered.  Whether that should be 5.25 or not comes down to the degree of nittiness of the individual I suppose but it certainly isnt something for anyone to get het up about and from that pertspective I would suggest Doobs doesn't have the time to find the perfect bet.  As Sonour said earlier, he thinks it is a fairly good use and he has run a bit bad and that should be good enough for any of us.  

I have an Asian laptop and had this really annoying problem.........if you hold ALT and type 0163 you get ur £ sign  Wink   on the number pad, not the top row numbers
« Last Edit: March 17, 2014, 05:41:37 PM by geordieneil » Logged
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