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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330307 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #95790 on: March 05, 2015, 09:50:50 PM »

railers gifted the race there at henlow with trouble at first bend.  Don't panic!

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=126883
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Peter-27
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« Reply #95791 on: March 05, 2015, 10:35:19 PM »

Now that we seem to be placing bets again ..  Wink

It seems like the F1 market is still forming, however I do have a couple more bets to suggest:

1) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Kvyat - Kvyat 7/2 with Sky Bet. Daniil showed he is no slouch last season, Ricciardo may well have the pace early on in the season, but I expect Daniil to be there or thereabouts. 7/2 is too high. Suggest £20.

2) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Vettel - Vettel 6/4 with Sky Bet. From pre-season testing it seems as if the Ferrari is quicker than the Red Bull. While Red Bull do historically have the better development rate, their Renault engine is down on power and they will suffer at races later in the season such as Spa & Monza. Suggest £25.

Note: Feel free to scale the bet sizes up or down, I'm never entirely sure what stake to suggest when it's not my money!

Also still suggest getting on Rosberg to win the title at between 3/1 and 4/1.

Will make more suggestions as the market forms.

fred cant bet at skysweat for legal reasons!

It seems like the F1 market is still forming, however I do have a couple more bets to suggest:

1) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Kvyat - Kvyat 7/2 with Sky Bet. Daniil showed he is no slouch last season, Ricciardo may well have the pace early on in the season, but I expect Daniil to be there or thereabouts. 7/2 is too high. Suggest £20.

2) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Vettel - Vettel 6/4 with Sky Bet. From pre-season testing it seems as if the Ferrari is quicker than the Red Bull. While Red Bull do historically have the better development rate, their Renault engine is down on power and they will suffer at races later in the season such as Spa & Monza. Suggest £25.

Note: Feel free to scale the bet sizes up or down, I'm never entirely sure what stake to suggest when it's not my money!

Also still suggest getting on Rosberg to win the title at between 3/1 and 4/1.

Will make more suggestions as the market forms.

would love to do these but, once again, Sky bet is a no go for us..even via a third party because of tikay's contract with them

Rosberg, trying to get 3-1 on the exchange. fixed odds 11/4 best and 5/2 where we can get on

Kvyat is now 9/2 with Coral: http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/season-specials/daniel-ricciardo-v-daniil-kvyat/tournament-match-betting
Vettel 6/4 with Betfred: http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/season-specials/daniel-ricciardo-v-sebastian-vettel/tournament-match-betting

Keep an eye on Rosberg, I managed to get nearly 4/1!
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engy
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« Reply #95792 on: March 05, 2015, 10:45:34 PM »

I realise I don't participate much these days (the unfortunate upshot of having an actual, real-world, job) but, for what (little) it's worth I wanted to chime in to comment on what a fillip Mark (arbboy) is to Fred.

Few 'get it' quite like he does, and to have his view available on an ongoing basis is pretty amazing.

Enjoy Cheltenham, one and all.

Best,

Ed

couldn't agree more ed, arbboy is brilliant reading on this thread. very knowledgable about betting and someone we can all learn from.
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arbboy
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« Reply #95793 on: March 05, 2015, 10:56:07 PM »

railers gifted the race there at henlow with trouble at first bend.  Don't panic!

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=126883

Plenty of trouble in last few races to make the last few races losers for me at henlow.  Still trying to work out how two stayed on its feet at first bend in last never mind win the race going away.  The fact the 25/1 t1 came 2nd with its solo made me feel we were just unlucky.
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« Reply #95794 on: March 05, 2015, 11:50:33 PM »

cisse is somehow our top scorer with impressive scoring rate, but trust me he's beyond awful. he's banned for 7 games so our price should go down but should go up. watch out for any close prices imo.
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« Reply #95795 on: March 05, 2015, 11:58:42 PM »

There is a bet I like a lot at the weekend. Jazza Dickens fights Josh Wale for the British super-bantamweight belt. Wale has fought for multiple titles at British/Commonwealth level and come up short every time. That is likely to happen again. Dickens took a big step up in class when he face Kid Galahad and gave him a lot of problems before his tank emptied and he got stopped late one. Wale also fought Galahad a couple of years earlier and was stopped on cuts in a one sided fight.

Wale is 17-6 and has been stopped twice. However he has a decent chin. One stoppage was due to massive swelling in his eye and his 2nd was on cuts. Dickens is 18-1 with only 6 KOs. As his record suggests he is not a massive puncher and his power is unlikely to trouble Wale. Also given he gassed so badly against Galahad in his last 12 rounder I'd expect him to be more circumspect early doors to ensure he has enough in the tank should it go 12. All of that makes the 11/10 with Lads on Dickens by decision very appealing.

There's another one I like but only one firm has priced it up at the minute so I'll wait for some others to go up.
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BorntoBubble
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« Reply #95796 on: March 06, 2015, 12:01:25 AM »

It feels like we're back!
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arbboy
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« Reply #95797 on: March 06, 2015, 12:05:40 AM »

cisse is somehow our top scorer with impressive scoring rate, but trust me he's beyond awful. he's banned for 7 games so our price should go down but should go up. watch out for any close prices imo.

Is he def banned for 7 games ?  Or rumour.  I was about to have one of my biggest ever football bets on a Newcastle related market for the rest of the season so your input would be handy.  No matter how bad he might appear he is scoring at a faster rate than any player in the EPL this year so it is pretty important to this bet.
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« Reply #95798 on: March 06, 2015, 12:13:57 AM »

United and the understanding. United feel very much like an unders team at the minute. Seem to have solved some def.ensive woes and are playing a brand of very boring backwards and sideways football. I don't see why this would change on Monday. It's a huge game for both teams as it's the best chance of silverware.

I'm liking the unders at nearly evens any thoughts from anyone?

I'm wondering with United if with this new style of play they will be over priced for some time with goals due to history.

Similar theory to a re years back Liverpool being over priced then United then dorTmond etc
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"ace high"

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arbboy
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« Reply #95799 on: March 06, 2015, 03:26:47 AM »

Yet another stinker from Jackpot at a short price.

He just isn't as good as his price suggests.  I don't really get why he goes off so short in these type of games. 

Agreed. His PL record is terrible. He gets priced up on reputation every week.

The other thing people forget about Lewis outside of his head line 'back to back' world champion walk on brag is that he has hardly won anything else in his career which is ten years long now.  Compare that to wade who has won 6 or 7 TV majors in the same period and you realise relatively how badly Lewis under performs week in week out year in year out on the tour yet goes off at prices which only Taylor in his prime and mvg should against rock solid top ten players in the world over a sprint of best of 12 legs with a draw included as well.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #95800 on: March 06, 2015, 10:10:40 AM »

Now that we seem to be placing bets again ..  Wink

It seems like the F1 market is still forming, however I do have a couple more bets to suggest:

1) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Kvyat - Kvyat 7/2 with Sky Bet. Daniil showed he is no slouch last season, Ricciardo may well have the pace early on in the season, but I expect Daniil to be there or thereabouts. 7/2 is too high. Suggest £20.

2) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Vettel - Vettel 6/4 with Sky Bet. From pre-season testing it seems as if the Ferrari is quicker than the Red Bull. While Red Bull do historically have the better development rate, their Renault engine is down on power and they will suffer at races later in the season such as Spa & Monza. Suggest £25.

Note: Feel free to scale the bet sizes up or down, I'm never entirely sure what stake to suggest when it's not my money!

Also still suggest getting on Rosberg to win the title at between 3/1 and 4/1.

Will make more suggestions as the market forms.

fred cant bet at skysweat for legal reasons!

It seems like the F1 market is still forming, however I do have a couple more bets to suggest:

1) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Kvyat - Kvyat 7/2 with Sky Bet. Daniil showed he is no slouch last season, Ricciardo may well have the pace early on in the season, but I expect Daniil to be there or thereabouts. 7/2 is too high. Suggest £20.

2) Season Match Bet: Ricciardo vs Vettel - Vettel 6/4 with Sky Bet. From pre-season testing it seems as if the Ferrari is quicker than the Red Bull. While Red Bull do historically have the better development rate, their Renault engine is down on power and they will suffer at races later in the season such as Spa & Monza. Suggest £25.

Note: Feel free to scale the bet sizes up or down, I'm never entirely sure what stake to suggest when it's not my money!

Also still suggest getting on Rosberg to win the title at between 3/1 and 4/1.

Will make more suggestions as the market forms.

would love to do these but, once again, Sky bet is a no go for us..even via a third party because of tikay's contract with them

Rosberg, trying to get 3-1 on the exchange. fixed odds 11/4 best and 5/2 where we can get on

Kvyat is now 9/2 with Coral: http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/season-specials/daniel-ricciardo-v-daniil-kvyat/tournament-match-betting
Vettel 6/4 with Betfred: http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/season-specials/daniel-ricciardo-v-sebastian-vettel/tournament-match-betting

Keep an eye on Rosberg, I managed to get nearly 4/1!

This was matched yesterday evening

Formula 1 2015 / Drivers Championship 2015    Nico Rosberg    Back    47087061486    05-Mar-15
11:37         4    30.00       4    05-Mar-15 18:25


Daniil Kvyat9/2Daniel Ricciardo v Daniil Kvyat - 29/11/2015
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£110.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £110.00

i can't do Betfred, so unlesss someone can help that remains unplaced

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/season-specials/daniel-ricciardo-v-sebastian-vettel/tournament-match-betting
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I watch the world outside
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TightEnd
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« Reply #95801 on: March 06, 2015, 10:13:52 AM »

There is a bet I like a lot at the weekend. Jazza Dickens fights Josh Wale for the British super-bantamweight belt. Wale has fought for multiple titles at British/Commonwealth level and come up short every time. That is likely to happen again. Dickens took a big step up in class when he face Kid Galahad and gave him a lot of problems before his tank emptied and he got stopped late one. Wale also fought Galahad a couple of years earlier and was stopped on cuts in a one sided fight.

Wale is 17-6 and has been stopped twice. However he has a decent chin. One stoppage was due to massive swelling in his eye and his 2nd was on cuts. Dickens is 18-1 with only 6 KOs. As his record suggests he is not a massive puncher and his power is unlikely to trouble Wale. Also given he gassed so badly against Galahad in his last 12 rounder I'd expect him to be more circumspect early doors to ensure he has enough in the tank should it go 12. All of that makes the 11/10 with Lads on Dickens by decision very appealing.

There's another one I like but only one firm has priced it up at the minute so I'll wait for some others to go up.


your bets (1)

Single - James Dickens v Josh Wale

James Dickens - By Decision or Technical Decision - |How will the fight be won?|

Odds: 11/10

1 lines at £50.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £50.00

Potential Return:£105.00

Time : 6/3/2015-07:39

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000859


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TightEnd
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« Reply #95802 on: March 06, 2015, 10:15:02 AM »

I propose "going again" on daily reports from Monday.

in the meantime the spreadsheet is up to date
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sovietsong
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« Reply #95803 on: March 06, 2015, 10:21:48 AM »

cisse is somehow our top scorer with impressive scoring rate, but trust me he's beyond awful. he's banned for 7 games so our price should go down but should go up. watch out for any close prices imo.

Is he def banned for 7 games ?  Or rumour.  I was about to have one of my biggest ever football bets on a Newcastle related market for the rest of the season so your input would be handy.  No matter how bad he might appear he is scoring at a faster rate than any player in the EPL this year so it is pretty important to this bet.

they said if he was found guilty he would face 7 game ban then he came out & admitted it, apologising.  He will get a ban but doubt it will be 7 games after the swift apology etc.
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« Reply #95804 on: March 06, 2015, 10:47:15 AM »

continuing the round up of the "book"

The NBA is coming to the end of the regular season

positions are as follows

12-Jul     jaffacake   williamhill   may-2015   basketball NBA - Rookie of the Year 2014/15   Nerlens Noel   10/1   40            
18-Jul    jaffacake   bwin   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year wiggins   7.0   20            
7-Aug jaffacake   bwin   may-2015   basketball   nba rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   80   
26-Jan arbboy   betfair   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year Wiggins LAY   1.2   20   £100 Lay


Wiggins is almost home and hosed here, which will produce a £540 net profit after Nerlens and the (in case he gets injured) lay
      
7-Aug   arbboy   williamhill   may-2015   basketball   nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50            
28-Oct   arbboy   coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2


If the play offs started today, The Cavs would be 4th seeds in their conference. Superb form since lebron came bacjk from injury and Cleveland are currently 7/2 favourites to lift the championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

28-Oct   arbboy   betvictor   may-2015   basketball    NBA - Atlantic Division 2014/15    Toronto Raptors   5/6   100      
28-Oct   arbboy   coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20   £10 e/w 1/2 1,2


Toronto are 12 games ahead in their division, and this bet is close to a winner
      
28-Oct   arbboy   williamhill   may-2015   basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    Dallas Mavericks   10/1   10   

Dallas a 4.5 games behind Memphis in their division which is set to produce 4 of the 8 play offs teams in their conference
         
28-Oct   arbboy   bwin   may-2015   basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    San Antonio Spurs   1.83   60   
21-Jan   arbboy   ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Southwest division   San Antonio Spurs   5/2   60   


the Spurs are 6 games behind in 4th in their division, so the bet will lose

28-Oct   arbboy   ladbrokes   28-Oct   basketball   NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40            £20 e/w 1/2 1,2


The Bulls just lead their division over the Cavs and are potential number 3 seeds in the conference. currently 14/1 for the title

28-Oct   arbboy   ladbrokes   28-Oct   basketball   NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40            £20 e/w 1/2 1,2

potential 5th seeds in their conference and currently 20/1 for the title

31-Oct   arbboy   ladbrokes   31-Oct   basketball   nba season most assists   Rajan Rondo   5/2   200   £100 e/w 1/5 1,2,3 (£80 e/w sonour)

a bet ruined by a mid season trade, then injury. Rondo currently 4th, 3 places paid

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2015/seasontype/2

18-Nov   moonandback   bet365   mar-2015   basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5            
18-Nov   moonandback   ladbrokes   mar-2015   basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5            
18-Nov   moonandback   bwin   mar-2015   basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10   10   


Just ahead of March madness, with one more regular season game to go Duke are 24-3, top 3 nationally ranked and set to be one of the top seeds in the NCAA tournament brackets. Kentucky, unbeaten all season, are short odds to win it
         
23-Nov   eddycadub   williamhill   may-2015   basketball   NBA Northwestern division   Portland Trailblazers   10/11   55   

Portland are 8 games clear in their division and on a 5 game win streak. bet a very likely winner
         
24-Nov   arbboy   chompy   mar-2015   basketball   NBA MVP   A Davies   6/1   30   
         
         
Davies was on the all star team, but not an MVPcandidate on a bad team and injured since just before the mid season break      


current forecast. On player and divisional bets alone the ante-post book is set to deliver a £300 profit. There are then £250 worth of positions on the NBA title, which we would be free-rolling    
         
      
« Last Edit: March 16, 2015, 01:26:04 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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