Tips for Tikay

[superwomble]

Spreads - thanks Dung & Simon.

Can either of you, or someone, perhaps start a thread on Spreads, just an Idiots Guide really, maybe a FAQ thing, too?

As it gets harder & harder for Fred to get on with fixed odds Firms, it might be something we should consider doing more of.

Tighty places our bets these days, & I don't know what his knowledge of Spreads amount to. I used to do Spreads 10 years ago, as a bona-fide ice cream, & all I remember was sending big fat cheques most Monday's to IG Index. When I set the account up, I had to show proof that I had £xx,000 in my Bank Account, does it still work that way? Settlement was in arrears, every Monday. I imagine things may have moved on a bit since then.....

If you do start a thread, please include details of how we set up a spread Account, do we need to deposit £x,000 or whatever?

Thanks.

With regards to problems getting on at fixed odds firms, have you/Tighty thought about going down the route of 'mug betting' in order to keep the accounts you can still use healthy?

Mug betting is where you place what look like normal ice-cream mug bets, like backing Man City, Spain, big odds-on favourite horses, wherever the ice-cream punter money is going - but you also use Betfair/Smarkets to lay the bet off for a small loss.

Worth a thought because Fred does tend to behave in a manner unliked by bookies - taking value all the time and using their offers as much as possible. Mug bets keep your account healthy.

[tikay]

Spreads - thanks Dung & Simon.

Can either of you, or someone, perhaps start a thread on Spreads, just an Idiots Guide really, maybe a FAQ thing, too?

As it gets harder & harder for Fred to get on with fixed odds Firms, it might be something we should consider doing more of.

Tighty places our bets these days, & I don't know what his knowledge of Spreads amount to. I used to do Spreads 10 years ago, as a bona-fide ice cream, & all I remember was sending big fat cheques most Monday's to IG Index. When I set the account up, I had to show proof that I had £xx,000 in my Bank Account, does it still work that way? Settlement was in arrears, every Monday. I imagine things may have moved on a bit since then.....

If you do start a thread, please include details of how we set up a spread Account, do we need to deposit £x,000 or whatever?

Thanks.

With regards to problems getting on at fixed odds firms, have you/Tighty thought about going down the route of 'mug betting' in order to keep the accounts you can still use healthy?

Mug betting is where you place what look like normal ice-cream mug bets, like backing Man City, Spain, big odds-on favourite horses, wherever the ice-cream punter money is going - but you also use Betfair/Smarkets to lay the bet off for a small loss.

Worth a thought because Fred does tend to behave in a manner unliked by bookies - taking value all the time and using their offers as much as possible. Mug bets keep your account healthy.

Thanks Womble.

We already, in effect, do that - we place the occasional Recommend from Marky & Tal.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/winner

Wales got to be worth a cheeky £5 at 125/1 surely?  Ranked 9th in world now (above England) with a proper super star on their team in his prime next summer and virtually certain to qualify. 

[superwomble]

Spreads - thanks Dung & Simon.

Can either of you, or someone, perhaps start a thread on Spreads, just an Idiots Guide really, maybe a FAQ thing, too?

As it gets harder & harder for Fred to get on with fixed odds Firms, it might be something we should consider doing more of.

Tighty places our bets these days, & I don't know what his knowledge of Spreads amount to. I used to do Spreads 10 years ago, as a bona-fide ice cream, & all I remember was sending big fat cheques most Monday's to IG Index. When I set the account up, I had to show proof that I had £xx,000 in my Bank Account, does it still work that way? Settlement was in arrears, every Monday. I imagine things may have moved on a bit since then.....

If you do start a thread, please include details of how we set up a spread Account, do we need to deposit £x,000 or whatever?

Thanks.

With regards to problems getting on at fixed odds firms, have you/Tighty thought about going down the route of 'mug betting' in order to keep the accounts you can still use healthy?

Mug betting is where you place what look like normal ice-cream mug bets, like backing Man City, Spain, big odds-on favourite horses, wherever the ice-cream punter money is going - but you also use Betfair/Smarkets to lay the bet off for a small loss.

Worth a thought because Fred does tend to behave in a manner unliked by bookies - taking value all the time and using their offers as much as possible. Mug bets keep your account healthy.

Thanks Womble.

We already, in effect, do that - we place the occasional Recommend from Marky & Tal.

 

[tikay]

Spreads - thanks Dung & Simon.

Can either of you, or someone, perhaps start a thread on Spreads, just an Idiots Guide really, maybe a FAQ thing, too?

As it gets harder & harder for Fred to get on with fixed odds Firms, it might be something we should consider doing more of.

Tighty places our bets these days, & I don't know what his knowledge of Spreads amount to. I used to do Spreads 10 years ago, as a bona-fide ice cream, & all I remember was sending big fat cheques most Monday's to IG Index. When I set the account up, I had to show proof that I had £xx,000 in my Bank Account, does it still work that way? Settlement was in arrears, every Monday. I imagine things may have moved on a bit since then.....

If you do start a thread, please include details of how we set up a spread Account, do we need to deposit £x,000 or whatever?

Thanks.

With regards to problems getting on at fixed odds firms, have you/Tighty thought about going down the route of 'mug betting' in order to keep the accounts you can still use healthy?

Mug betting is where you place what look like normal ice-cream mug bets, like backing Man City, Spain, big odds-on favourite horses, wherever the ice-cream punter money is going - but you also use Betfair/Smarkets to lay the bet off for a small loss.

Worth a thought because Fred does tend to behave in a manner unliked by bookies - taking value all the time and using their offers as much as possible. Mug bets keep your account healthy.

Thanks Womble.

We already, in effect, do that - we place the occasional Recommend from Marky & Tal.

 

Actually, I should have addressed your wise question more seriously.

I think most of our accounts are already gone, or Restricted, so that boat has sailed.

I suppose of those that remain, we could do the occasional acca or yankee just to add some ice cream balance, or have a spin on the magic wheel once a week.

[MattyHollis]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/winner

Wales got to be worth a cheeky £5 at 125/1 surely?  Ranked 9th in world now (above England) with a proper super star on their team in his prime next summer and virtually certain to qualify. 

Surely not.

The rankings are so skewed and meaningless and I can't ever imagine Hal Robson-Kanu/Chris Gunter/James Collins etc etc lining up in a European Championship final can you?

You'd get more of a sweat setting light to the fiver.

[arbboy]

Previous winners Greece (couldn't win but won) and Denmark (didn't even qualify and turn up late as a replacement and win) in the last 25 years.  Wouldn't like laying the 125/1 myself.  Can't see it getting any bigger before the event starts.  Only going to shortern imo.

[TightEnd]

How many races will Alonso win in 2015 -none    11/8   20

This one in particular is massively under staked, bad call from me. I guess going in to the season, McLaren were a bit of an unknown. It was possible, albeit unlikely, that once they would be massively quick when they actually finished a race - as it turns out, they are both slow and unreliable!

Talking of F1, our man, Peter, has resumed playing poker & posting Next Door, but I'm sure F1 will remain his primary focus. And spreads, obv.

F1 is always the focus 

I'll post bet suggestions (and reply to the "betting maths" posts from last week) at around 8PM UK Time

ahead of the bets

with the pirelli investigation complete and remedies for monza in place....i saw this quote

Hamilton on proposed tyre-pressure increase: "We'll be out of the optimum range. More wear, less grip; it's going to be a disaster"

what impact on betting strategy does this have?

--

ferrari have an engine upgrade. going to change the status quo at all?

--

monza and spa are similar with monza even quicker. should we extrapolate spa trends to monza?

eg excessive tyre wear for perez?

eg lotus likely to go well again? (grosjean is 6/4 for top 6 having podiumvated in spa...)


thx 

[Peter-27]

How many races will Alonso win in 2015 -none    11/8   20

This one in particular is massively under staked, bad call from me. I guess going in to the season, McLaren were a bit of an unknown. It was possible, albeit unlikely, that once they would be massively quick when they actually finished a race - as it turns out, they are both slow and unreliable!

Talking of F1, our man, Peter, has resumed playing poker & posting Next Door, but I'm sure F1 will remain his primary focus. And spreads, obv.

F1 is always the focus 

I'll post bet suggestions (and reply to the "betting maths" posts from last week) at around 8PM UK Time

ahead of the bets

with the pirelli investigation complete and remedies for monza in place....i saw this quote

Hamilton on proposed tyre-pressure increase: "We'll be out of the optimum range. More wear, less grip; it's going to be a disaster"

what impact on betting strategy does this have?

--

ferrari have an engine upgrade. going to change the status quo at all?

--

monza and spa are similar with monza even quicker. should we extrapolate spa trends to monza?

eg excessive tyre wear for perez?

eg lotus likely to go well again? (grosjean is 6/4 for top 6 having podiumvated in spa...)


thx 

The decision on what exactly the conclusions of the Pirelli investigation are is changing on an hour-by-hour basis depending on who in the FIA you talk to .. can't really take it into consideration at the moment. Either way, it won't have a huge effect on the pecking order of the teams.

Ferrari do have an engine upgrade, but Mercedes have used all of their seven remaining engine tokens (that's just the works team, not the Mercedes customers for this race). So I expect Mercedes to have an increased advantage if anything.

Remaining tokens
Renault: 12
Ferrari: 10
Honda: 4
Mercedes: 0

In general pace at Spa is paralleled (and a little more extreme) at Monza. However, the two instances you mentioned are complicated.

Perez's tyre wear was caused by running on the kerbs too much and the resultant energy through the tyre. This should be considerably less of a problem at Monza - as should tyre wear in general if we see normal air/track temperatures.

As for Lotus, it's always hard to place them. Their car is massively inconsistent as they have an extremely narrow set-up window. In other words, it's very hard to effectively set-up their car for specific race tracks, however, when they do get it right, they'll be very fast - as we saw at Spa.

I'll look at the prices now and let you know

[tikay]

How many races will Alonso win in 2015 -none    11/8   20

This one in particular is massively under staked, bad call from me. I guess going in to the season, McLaren were a bit of an unknown. It was possible, albeit unlikely, that once they would be massively quick when they actually finished a race - as it turns out, they are both slow and unreliable!

Talking of F1, our man, Peter, has resumed playing poker & posting Next Door, but I'm sure F1 will remain his primary focus. And spreads, obv.

F1 is always the focus 

I'll post bet suggestions (and reply to the "betting maths" posts from last week) at around 8PM UK Time

ahead of the bets

with the pirelli investigation complete and remedies for monza in place....i saw this quote

Hamilton on proposed tyre-pressure increase: "We'll be out of the optimum range. More wear, less grip; it's going to be a disaster"

what impact on betting strategy does this have?

--

ferrari have an engine upgrade. going to change the status quo at all?

--

monza and spa are similar with monza even quicker. should we extrapolate spa trends to monza?

eg excessive tyre wear for perez?

eg lotus likely to go well again? (grosjean is 6/4 for top 6 having podiumvated in spa...)


thx 

The decision on what exactly the conclusions of the Pirelli investigation are is changing on an hour-by-hour basis depending on who in the FIA you talk to .. can't really take it into consideration at the moment. Either way, it won't have a huge effect on the pecking order of the teams.

Ferrari do have an engine upgrade, but Mercedes have used all of their seven remaining engine tokens (that's just the works team, not the Mercedes customers for this race). So I expect Mercedes to have an increased advantage if anything.

Remaining tokens
Renault: 12
Ferrari: 10
Honda: 4
Mercedes: 0

In general pace at Spa is paralleled (and a little more extreme) at Monza. However, the two instances you mentioned are complicated.

Perez's tyre wear was caused by running on the kerbs too much and the resultant energy through the tyre. This should be considerably less of a problem at Monza - as should tyre wear in general if we see normal air/track temperatures.

As for Lotus, it's always hard to place them. Their car is massively inconsistent as they have an extremely narrow set-up window. In other words, it's very hard to effectively set-up their car for specific race tracks, however, when they do get it right, they'll be very fast - as we saw at Spa.

I'll look at the prices now and let you know

Peter,

When you get 5 minutes, have a look at the new Spread Betting thread, you may find it useful.

[Peter-27]

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Firstly let me say my knowledge of sports betting is non-existent but how is this right?

If they would win the race twice if you ran it 7500 times then surely a small bet on them every race (maybe just like 10p) would be correct? There is still an edge there?

Am I misunderstanding?

I don't know, that's why I asked. The suggestions I was getting in previous posts suggest that I should be betting big on this every race - which makes no sense to me.

That is a very extreme example but yeah your staking should be proportional to the edge that you think that you have and if you're getting 7500/1 about a true 5000/1 shot then you should be having a bet every time. Its the same as poker players regging the WSOP main. You'll only get to play a certain number of times in your lifetime and you're really unlikely to ever win but playing still has hugely positive EV.

You have to balance this against risk/reward because if you're a winning punter then you're going to find profitable bets in the future, so you need to make sure that you actually have some of your bankroll left to take those profitable bets. If we did the the maths (I'm not going to attempt to here) and looked in pure EV terms on a £10k bankroll we would have to make a LOT of profitable bets to capture the EV that we could be putting the whole £10k on a true 5000/1 shot getting 7500/1, but then 4999 times out of 5000 we're busto.

What is certain from an £EV standpoint is that if you're bankrolled to place the footy spread bet that you did then you're staking waaaaay too small on the F1. There are a host of reasons to not want to maximise your £EV. I suspect that for you betting on football is business and F1 is something that you're obviously really passionate about where sweating big money on it every race weekend might detract from the enjoyment. I'm very much the same with ice hockey, big follower of the NHL but I've never had a bet on it because its just something that I enjoy spectating. Anything else would be a bet though, I mean I'm gunna have one eye on the WWE summer slam tonight ffs

All that said, the size of your spread position kinda of suggests that you're in this to make a decent wedge and if that is true then you definitely have stake size leaks. Luckily this is the perfect place to fix them should wish to do so. It'd be a very interesting exercise imo if you put up what you think the true price would be on all of your selections and then let some of the maths sharpies suggest what the bet size would be in terms of %age of bankroll. Personally my stake size for you selections is always 3-4x what you suggest and I would be surprised if it wasn't the same for most of the people following your stuff and that I think should be taken as a sign. Perhaps a sign that I don't know what I'm doing, but a sign nonetheless!

Good luck all with the race today

Thank you for taking the time to write all that. While I do understand the logic of what you're saying, it just doesn't make sense in my brain to bet solely based on value rather than a combination of value and likelihood of it happening - which are two different things.

As an extreme example:

Morecambe vs Man City. If Morecambe we're 1000000/1, that's great value, but the likelihood is still low. Obviously in this instance you would bet, I'm just trying to illustrate the difference between the two concepts - I do feel like many of the punters on here get blinded by the value sometimes, and forget to consider the likelihood of a win. Sounds like this is done on purpose, but I'm not sure I agree with it.

For the record, betting on F1 doesn't take anything away from my enjoyment  

I still disagree that I have an issue with the amount I bet between Football and F1. The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum. Having said that, I do know that my bet sizing is a bit random - I'm more than happy to post a more realistic price rather than a suggested bet size if you guys would prefer that? Actually the easiest (and probably most accurate) procedure would be to make a statement such as: "this would win seven times out of ten". Then you guys could work from that, would that be better?

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Firstly let me say my knowledge of sports betting is non-existent but how is this right?

If they would win the race twice if you ran it 7500 times then surely a small bet on them every race (maybe just like 10p) would be correct? There is still an edge there?

Am I misunderstanding?

I don't know, that's why I asked. The suggestions I was getting in previous posts suggest that I should be betting big on this every race - which makes no sense to me.

I'd just say this is a terrible example.  The chances of rags winning is hard to measure but I am sure you picked the wrong one anyway.  Ericsson at 2000/1 must be better than the complete rags at 7500/1.  Don't know if it is value though.  I'd be very surprised if backing Will Stevens was.

To get away from some of the confusion you cause, I will just put up a general example.  If you have 2 bets that you both have a 20% edge should you bet the same on an even money chance as on a 33/1 chance?  The answer should be no because the returns you get from the 33/1 chance will be more volatile.  If you had 50 £100 bets on even money chances, with 20% edge, you'd expect to at least break even most of the time and the likely range something like £0 to £1000 in profit.  On the 33/1 chances you could easily go 50 without a win or just one win, so you could see -£5000, or -£1400 quite easily.  So bad runs of results that can bust you are much more likely when backing big priced horses.

But this doesn't mean we should always back bigger on short priced horses than big priced ones.  That us because you can have a bigger edge on bigger priced results.  So if you think a 33/1 chance should really be 10/1 (will suspend my scepticism for the argument), and another bet that is 4/1 that should be 3/1, what should you do?  Well the first bet will clearly produce a bigger EV than the second one, so if we ignore volatility we should definitely bet bigger on the 33/1 chance.  I'd also suggest that even if we allow for volatility the first bet should still be bigger.

But it is really important that you don't get carried away with this and start assuming that you can pick many 33/1 chances that should be 10/1.  Most should really be 50/1.

This made a lot of sense to me, thanks Doobs

[Peter-27]

For now, until I get some feedback on how to proceed, I'll stick with my usual methods as you guys know what to expect from me.

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with BitVector. While Lewis is the more likely to win this weekend (momentum), 3/1 is too high. Should be just less than 2/1 really. Suggest £10.

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with Coral. Same reasons as above. £10.

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ 11/8 with BitVector/Whills/TitanBet. While Toro Rosso are having quite serious (and largely un-documented) issues off the track at the moment, the Monza circuit should suit their car and particularly Max who is always strong on tracks of this nature. Suggest £15.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 with PoddyPawer and Whills. On the assumption he actually starts the race this time, he'll be there or thereabouts. Suggest £15.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1, Sergio Perez @ 4/1 - both with Blose. Prices too high considering the Williams cars sandbag more often than not. Suggest £10 each.

Winning Margin - 11-15.999 Seconds @ 7/1 with Blose. I expect Mercedes to have their biggest margin so far in 2015 this weekend. Yes, there are two drivers in Mercedes cars, but this is not a massively demanding circuit - whoever is quickest between Nico & Lewis this weekend should consistently pull away lap-by-lap. A late safety car is a threat to this bet, but the price is good enough to warrant a £15 bet.

[JoeBeevers]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

[TightEnd]

For now, until I get some feedback on how to proceed, I'll stick with my usual methods as you guys know what to expect from me.

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with BitVector. While Lewis is the more likely to win this weekend (momentum), 3/1 is too high. Should be just less than 2/1 really. Suggest £10.

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with Coral. Same reasons as above. £10.

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ 11/8 with BitVector/Whills/TitanBet. While Toro Rosso are having quite serious (and largely un-documented) issues off the track at the moment, the Monza circuit should suit their car and particularly Max who is always strong on tracks of this nature. Suggest £15.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 with PoddyPawer and Whills. On the assumption he actually starts the race this time, he'll be there or thereabouts. Suggest £15.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1, Sergio Perez @ 4/1 - both with Blose. Prices too high considering the Williams cars sandbag more often than not. Suggest £10 each.

Winning Margin - 11-15.999 Seconds @ 7/1 with Blose. I expect Mercedes to have their biggest margin so far in 2015 this weekend. Yes, there are two drivers in Mercedes cars, but this is not a massively demanding circuit - whoever is quickest between Nico & Lewis this weekend should consistently pull away lap-by-lap. A late safety car is a threat to this bet, but the price is good enough to warrant a £15 bet.

prices are down currently for FP1

Can i double check, we want to be on rosberg with Hamilton 0.9secs clear?

In the eleven qualifying sessions so far this year, Hamilton has beaten him ten times

why should 3/1 quotes be less than 2/1?


i won't be able to do the final two bets, bwin is closed

first time i have seen someone suggest titanbet too. be careful with titanbet, stories of problems with them (payout times mainly) are many

needless to say we can't be with titanbet, or don't want to

[Doobs]

For now, until I get some feedback on how to proceed, I'll stick with my usual methods as you guys know what to expect from me.

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with BitVector. While Lewis is the more likely to win this weekend (momentum), 3/1 is too high. Should be just less than 2/1 really. Suggest £10.

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with Coral. Same reasons as above. £10.

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ 11/8 with BitVector/Whills/TitanBet. While Toro Rosso are having quite serious (and largely un-documented) issues off the track at the moment, the Monza circuit should suit their car and particularly Max who is always strong on tracks of this nature. Suggest £15.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 with PoddyPawer and Whills. On the assumption he actually starts the race this time, he'll be there or thereabouts. Suggest £15.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1, Sergio Perez @ 4/1 - both with Blose. Prices too high considering the Williams cars sandbag more often than not. Suggest £10 each.

Winning Margin - 11-15.999 Seconds @ 7/1 with Blose. I expect Mercedes to have their biggest margin so far in 2015 this weekend. Yes, there are two drivers in Mercedes cars, but this is not a massively demanding circuit - whoever is quickest between Nico & Lewis this weekend should consistently pull away lap-by-lap. A late safety car is a threat to this bet, but the price is good enough to warrant a £15 bet.

prices are down currently for FP1

Can i double check, we want to be on rosberg with Hamilton 0.9secs clear?

In the eleven qualifying sessions so far this year, Hamilton has beaten him ten times

why should 3/1 quotes be less than 2/1?


i won't be able to do the final two bets, bwin is closed

first time i have seen someone suggest titanbet too. be careful with titanbet, stories of problems with them (payout times mainly) are many

needless to say we can't be with titanbet, or don't want to

Got to agree.  Lewis isn't shorter because he has momentum, he is shorter because he is quicker and a better racer.

But there could be e/w bet opportunities on Rosberg as there has been a few times this season.  Though bookies did get wise for a while.

As an aside, didn't someone (Arbboy?) mention Wales on here for the Euros a few weeks ago.  Sure they were a few hundred to 1 at the time and sure I had a bet or two somewhere.  Currently 66/1 with the best e/w firm.

Edit.  Should have added if you get rosberg 3/1 with a third first 2 think that is a good bet if rosberg starts 2nd.