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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332135 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #131235 on: December 13, 2017, 09:18:24 PM »

Look at Burnley here



and here,have turned 16 goals into 31 points!

12 Premier League teams have a points total within 2 of their goals scored; 18 have a points total within 4 of goals scored. A goal = (roughly) a point.



That is an incredible table.  Not sure what shocks me the most.  Bournemouth being bottom probably does as they have been the stats boys dream for a few seasons now.  Just shows you how much variance is involved in professional sport over an NFL length season of 16 games.  League table never lies though!
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« Reply #131236 on: December 14, 2017, 07:22:03 AM »

Do these stats say that Burnley should be 2nd bottom on the basis of their stats?  Surely that suggests a flaw in the stats methodology as opposed to Burnley just having amazing luck?  How can any effective analysis conclude that they should be below Swansea for example?
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« Reply #131237 on: December 14, 2017, 07:36:18 AM »

Do these stats say that Burnley should be 2nd bottom on the basis of their stats?  Surely that suggests a flaw in the stats methodology as opposed to Burnley just having amazing luck?  How can any effective analysis conclude that they should be below Swansea for example?

I think it panders to half and quarter chances quite well. So if you build an accumulation up of those then that can outweigh a team that perhaps deals more in much better chances but less frequently. After a minimal amount of research on it, i throw that out there as a possibility?
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« Reply #131238 on: December 14, 2017, 08:07:00 AM »

Not trying to completely sidetrack the above convo, but as i have a bit of time, I am going to comment a little on Hodgson with future betting opportunities associated with it.

4-4-2 forces benteke to play as a two up front highlighting his weaknesses more and we don't even have a second striker.
4-5-1 would play to Benteke's strengths as an effective brick wall in bouncing direct long balls from our defenders to our wingers, and getting on the end of crosses with tap ins/headers as he struggles to play football on the deck offensively. The system would allow Townsend and Zaha to offer a two pronged wing attack which can be frightening at times, meaning opportunities would come so much more frequently. Highlighted by how I believe Zaha went against orders to play as a striker, to hug the byline in the last 5 mins of the game against Watford, as a winger, then two moments of brilliance, create two goals. The guy is one of the best in the world one on one with a defender and Hodgson's idea is to make him a passenger up front for a whole game stunting his ability to take the ball from deeper and really do what he does best.

Loftus Cheek has been touted as a future England star and from seeing him regularly he could be. But he's being played on the bloody wing because Hodgson persists with a 4-4-2 and has to put him somewhere. He doesn't play well in this position and was at fault for Watford's goal in not tracking back. He also can't take on any players that effectively as a winger, and the guy's qualities are so much more well suited to playing centrally.

A potential midfield 5 of Townsend/Zaha/Milovejic/Cabaye/Loftus Cheek with Mcarthur as back up is very good. A comfortable top 12 side easily imo. And I think with that Benteke can up his scoring in line with the 15 goals he got last season instead of the 0 this. Also we lucked out on securing the services of RLC for the whole season and we are doing our very best to piss on his potential.

Now Hodgson has brought better defensive stability and that is great and should be lauded, but he could potentially do this in a 4-5-1 system thus allowing a more fierce attack with players in their rightful positions.

It's despairingly disjointed watching them atm. As it's so much potential that is needlessly struggling at the foot of the table imo with a huge amount of recent draws that i think should have been wins in a different system. Saying that i do realise how lucky Palace are to be in the prem altogether and all that jazz so i'm not that upset and i'm being a bit of a drama queen here, but I don't know why Hodgson is doing this. 

To the betting opportunities - if we shape up generally in a 4-5-1 moving forward then backing Palace generally might be value. Although amusingly, the 4-4-2 we currently do play bodes quite well against the bigger teams of which we have some coming up. So a little complicated but I will put up recommends if i see them.

One i see clearly for those that are lucky to get on is 11/1 at home to Arsenal with Pads Power https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-arsenal/winner - you can book a tenner with me if you like Tikay.


To the Leicester game 10/3 seems tempting but i will probably leave alone considering their form.

With the Swansea away game, the 19/10 could be value if we're in a 4-5-1. otherwise i am not so sure.

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« Reply #131239 on: December 14, 2017, 08:15:06 AM »

Not trying to completely sidetrack the above convo, but as i have a bit of time, I am going to comment a little on Hodgson with future betting opportunities associated with it.

4-4-2 forces benteke to play as a two up front highlighting his weaknesses more and we don't even have a second striker.
4-5-1 would play to Benteke's strengths as an effective brick wall in bouncing direct long balls from our defenders to our wingers, and getting on the end of crosses with tap ins/headers as he struggles to play football on the deck offensively. The system would allow Townsend and Zaha to offer a two pronged wing attack which can be frightening at times, meaning opportunities would come so much more frequently. Highlighted by how I believe Zaha went against orders to play as a striker, to hug the byline in the last 5 mins of the game against Watford, as a winger, then two moments of brilliance, create two goals. The guy is one of the best in the world one on one with a defender and Hodgson's idea is to make him a passenger up front for a whole game stunting his ability to take the ball from deeper and really do what he does best.

Loftus Cheek has been touted as a future England star and from seeing him regularly he could be. But he's being played on the bloody wing because Hodgson persists with a 4-4-2 and has to put him somewhere. He doesn't play well in this position and was at fault for Watford's goal in not tracking back. He also can't take on any players that effectively as a winger, and the guy's qualities are so much more well suited to playing centrally.

A potential midfield 5 of Townsend/Zaha/Milovejic/Cabaye/Loftus Cheek with Mcarthur as back up is very good. A comfortable top 12 side easily imo. And I think with that Benteke can up his scoring in line with the 15 goals he got last season instead of the 0 this. Also we lucked out on securing the services of RLC for the whole season and we are doing our very best to piss on his potential.

Now Hodgson has brought better defensive stability and that is great and should be lauded, but he could potentially do this in a 4-5-1 system thus allowing a more fierce attack with players in their rightful positions.

It's despairingly disjointed watching them atm. As it's so much potential that is needlessly struggling at the foot of the table imo with a huge amount of recent draws that i think should have been wins in a different system. Saying that i do realise how lucky Palace are to be in the prem altogether and all that jazz so i'm not that upset and i'm being a bit of a drama queen here, but I don't know why Hodgson is doing this. 

To the betting opportunities - if we shape up generally in a 4-5-1 moving forward then backing Palace generally might be value. Although amusingly, the 4-4-2 we currently do play bodes quite well against the bigger teams of which we have some coming up. So a little complicated but I will put up recommends if i see them.

One i see clearly for those that are lucky to get on is 11/1 at home to Arsenal with Pads Power https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-arsenal/winner - you can book a tenner with me if you like Tikay.


To the Leicester game 10/3 seems tempting but i will probably leave alone considering their form.

With the Swansea away game, the 19/10 could be value if we're in a 4-5-1. otherwise i am not so sure.



Morning Ant.

I'm not sure if Tighty is around this morning, so I'm gonna book that bet if I may.

£10, Palace to beat Arsenal, @ 11/1.

Thank you. I can send the cash now if you wish, or settle up in arrears, whatever you prefer.

BET PLACED
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« Reply #131240 on: December 14, 2017, 08:19:12 AM »


Whilst we have his attention, a question for ant, & others of course - any views on the EPL Relegation market? It's looking really wide open at the moment.


https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation
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« Reply #131241 on: December 14, 2017, 08:21:34 AM »

nice one Tikay settling up after is fine cheers.

betfair exchange has just opened for 12/1 literally now as i last checked, but never mind (the option is there to retract the tenner), some ool prices might be sprouting all over the place on this and might be worth checking.
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« Reply #131242 on: December 14, 2017, 08:31:09 AM »


Whilst we have his attention, a question for ant, & others of course - any views on the EPL Relegation market? It's looking really wide open at the moment.


https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

I don't know is the answer, but there is seemingly value to be had. Palace "shouldn't", but with the 4-4-2 we might just pull it off. Looking at WBA i would have thought Pardew would have the potential to send them down, but a perky result yesterday. Swansea seem the tap in suggestion but at 4/11 there's nothing in that.

Newcastle seem to be sinking uncontrollably atm, but with potential investment coming maybe that will change?

Bournemouth defensively when i saw them were pretty terrible. The most open team I have seen against Palace when we met at Selhurst Park which might be a worry for them, especially if they continue to struggle offensively as that is generally their whole schtick. You have the continuity here as well that they will back Howe until the end of the season regardless of what happens imo, and they will probably persist with the same style they generally always have even if it is failing, but they are still pretty talented so tough to right them off.

Of all of them I would pick Bournemouth as 4/1 is quite big, but i don't know, just throwing stuff out there.

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« Reply #131243 on: December 14, 2017, 08:43:32 AM »

The 11/4 on Brighton looks big. No goals in the team. Knockaert has been found out again in the FPL and there is only so much magic Dunk, Duffy and Ryan can perform each game. Very susceptible at corners too.
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« Reply #131244 on: December 14, 2017, 09:39:54 AM »

The 11/4 on Brighton looks big. No goals in the team. Knockaert has been found out again in the FPL and there is only so much magic Dunk, Duffy and Ryan can perform each game. Very susceptible at corners too.

 
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« Reply #131245 on: December 14, 2017, 01:53:43 PM »

Darts update on the two ante post bets.  MVG is a tight 8/11 on the machine now (we got 4/5)  Lewis is 35/1 and 12/1 to final.  We got 50/1 and 25/1 respectively.  Looking forward to it.  Starts 7pm tonight.
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« Reply #131246 on: December 14, 2017, 04:58:45 PM »

All mid/wide at Crayford again this afternoon if you fancy a punt before the darts.
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« Reply #131247 on: December 14, 2017, 06:51:48 PM »

All mid/wide at Crayford again this afternoon if you fancy a punt before the darts.

Nice warm up for the darts there.  Hope a few of you made a few quid there!  

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=155018
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« Reply #131248 on: December 14, 2017, 08:01:23 PM »

All mid/wide at Crayford again this afternoon if you fancy a punt before the darts.

Nice warm up for the darts there.  Hope a few of you made a few quid there!  

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=155018

Mark, with all this snooker on the telly recently I've often wondered about an old poker player from Stoke who's name escapes me but he used to be a regular on The Midlands mini-circuit fifteen or twenty years ago. A very nice old bloke with grey hair and a 'tache - had a voice like a foghorn and used to be Ray Reardon's driver way back when he was in his pomp. He must be in his late 80's or early 90's now

For some reason he always used to ask me how my dad was although I'm 99% sure he never met him.
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« Reply #131249 on: December 15, 2017, 02:53:15 PM »

All mid/wide at Crayford again this afternoon if you fancy a punt before the darts.

Nice warm up for the darts there.  Hope a few of you made a few quid there!  

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=155018

Mark, with all this snooker on the telly recently I've often wondered about an old poker player from Stoke who's name escapes me but he used to be a regular on The Midlands mini-circuit fifteen or twenty years ago. A very nice old bloke with grey hair and a 'tache - had a voice like a foghorn and used to be Ray Reardon's driver way back when he was in his pomp. He must be in his late 80's or early 90's now

For some reason he always used to ask me how my dad was although I'm 99% sure he never met him.

I think the fella you are referring to is Bob Cotton.  PRetty sure it is.  Used to work the doors back in the day in Stoke i think even though he was quite a small fella and used to always come to the casino with his wife who played the machines for hours.

I think he passed away in the last couple of years.
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