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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180169 times)
RickBFA
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« Reply #3960 on: June 26, 2016, 11:28:05 PM »

The next 3+ years are going to be very rocky. I strongly believe that there will be a recession and advise people to consider fixing their mortgages for as long as possible as inflation and interest rates will start to rise. My brother recently bought a flat and he is stretched to repay the current mortgage, I have told him to prepare for a worst-case scenario of interest rates rising to 15%. It happened in the 80s and it could happen again.

For anyone worried about job security, now is a good time to take out some 0% no-fee balance transfer credit cards. This is effectively an APR-free two-year loan which you can squirrel away in a cash ISA and withdraw in two years to repay the card before the interest-free period ends. If your mortgage needs to be renewed within this 2 years be careful because they may not look fondly on this large amount sitting on a credit card.

Aren't they more likely to cut the interest rate if we go into recession?

Raising the interest rates would be to curb inflation - imported goods might push inflation up a bit, but wouldn't have thought it would be enough to outweigh the need to get people spending (?)

Out of the EU the UK can embark on actual Mugabe-style money printing with the inflationary pressures that brings.  It won't be pretty.

The EU have done over a trillion of QE via the ECB (well will be by Sept).  They are as happy to get involved in that aspect as much as the next man!

Nice comeback Dung. Made me chuckle.

EU/Eurozone  - the bastion of sensible financial management

 Cheesy
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EvilPie
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« Reply #3961 on: June 26, 2016, 11:29:42 PM »

The next 3+ years are going to be very rocky. I strongly believe that there will be a recession and advise people to consider fixing their mortgages for as long as possible as inflation and interest rates will start to rise. My brother recently bought a flat and he is stretched to repay the current mortgage, I have told him to prepare for a worst-case scenario of interest rates rising to 15%. It happened in the 80s and it could happen again.

For anyone worried about job security, now is a good time to take out some 0% no-fee balance transfer credit cards. This is effectively an APR-free two-year loan which you can squirrel away in a cash ISA and withdraw in two years to repay the card before the interest-free period ends. If your mortgage needs to be renewed within this 2 years be careful because they may not look fondly on this large amount sitting on a credit card.

Aren't they more likely to cut the interest rate if we go into recession?

Raising the interest rates would be to curb inflation - imported goods might push inflation up a bit, but wouldn't have thought it would be enough to outweigh the need to get people spending (?)

Yes I think inflation will rise because (as you say) imported goods will cost more, as will petrol which is priced in $. In the long term services will also cost more as well as immigration declines/the cheap workers choose to go somewhere more welcoming. It'll probably cost twice the amount to get your cash washed in a few years!

Essentially, not only are you giving yourself some rainy-day 'savings' by taking out the credit card, inflation eats away at the real value of debt. When the rate of inflation is positive, any debts you have decrease in value.

You've got the wrong type of credit card for that. You need a 0% spending card or a 0% money transfer card to do what you're talking about.

The amount you make on it is peanuts compared to what it costs if you get it wrong so it's not a good idea for many people at all. Only those with a good credit rating and 100% spending discipline should even think about it.

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The Camel
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« Reply #3962 on: June 26, 2016, 11:30:23 PM »

"We who agreed with this majority decision must accept that it was not entirely overwhelming"

Boris Johnson.

Hahahahaha.

You almost have to respect the bare faced cheek of the fella.

Waiting breathlessly for his next move.

We are not leaving the EU. Take that to the bank.
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arbboy
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« Reply #3963 on: June 26, 2016, 11:33:32 PM »

"We who agreed with this majority decision must accept that it was not entirely overwhelming"

Boris Johnson.

Hahahahaha.

You almost have to respect the bare faced cheek of the fella.

Waiting breathlessly for his next move.

We are not leaving the EU. Take that to the bank.

Care to price it up alongside pricing up 2030 whether UK is better of or not outside of the EU which you ignored earlier .
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #3964 on: June 26, 2016, 11:39:00 PM »

I am sitting in my local curry house and spoke to every member of staff tonight about how they voted.  All UK lifers but Asian origin obviously.  They had no idea how I would vote but based on the stat normals of my make up (degree/high earner etc etc) they would assume I was a remain type.  Every one of these UK asians voted leave without exception.  I asked why.  Simple answer from them all.  We can't recruit a highly skilled chef from where we want to with skills we need without big work permit hassles but we can get twenty worthless Eastern European waiters with no such hassles.  What difference does it make to our business whether immigrants come from Eastern Europe or Asia?  The racist angle is comical in this debate.  They said virtually all their friends in the trade in the West Midlands voted the same way.  The EU really isn't the big deal economically people keep making out anymore.  With the UK leaving its relative power falls even more and we could be the trigger to it totally collapsing longer term.  

This is the most powerful argument for me. In theory it would allow us to help the most in need and take the best and brightest.
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The Camel
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« Reply #3965 on: June 26, 2016, 11:41:08 PM »

"We who agreed with this majority decision must accept that it was not entirely overwhelming"

Boris Johnson.

Hahahahaha.

You almost have to respect the bare faced cheek of the fella.

Waiting breathlessly for his next move.

We are not leaving the EU. Take that to the bank.

Care to price it up alongside pricing up 2030 whether UK is better of or not outside of the EU which you ignored earlier .

How do you quantify how the UK will be better off or not?

The rich, on the whole, will be better off and the poor will be worse off.

Whether that means the UK is better off or not is a pointless argument.
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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #3966 on: June 26, 2016, 11:42:41 PM »

I am sitting in my local curry house and spoke to every member of staff tonight about how they voted.  All UK lifers but Asian origin obviously. . .  Every one of these UK asians voted leave without exception.  I asked why.  Simple answer from them all.  We can't recruit a highly skilled chef from where we want to with skills we need without big work permit hassles but we can get twenty worthless Eastern European waiters with no such hassles.  What difference does it make to our business whether immigrants come from Eastern Europe or Asia?

Interesting! So it was basically a spite vote because the current working laws favour EU workers vs ones from Bangladesh (or wherever they originate from)? I presume they anticipate that the laws to get their guys over will loosen, when in reality they will just get tightened for all the EU workers so the curry house owners will still be in the same position (just without the option of employing a cheap EU waiter).

A good friend of mine is UK-born and worked in his Bangladeshi dad's curry house for many years before running one of his own for a while. I will ask him what all his curry house-owning relations voted for. He said he was personally voting for remain.
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Woodsey
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« Reply #3967 on: June 26, 2016, 11:48:28 PM »

Boris' latest FB post, should enrage a few of you I would of thought 🙃



This EU referendum has been the most extraordinary political event of our lifetime. Never in our history have so many people been asked to decide a big question about the nation’s future. Never have so many thought so deeply, or wrestled so hard with their consciences, in an effort to come up with the right answer.

It has been a gruelling campaign in which we have seen divisions between family and friends and colleagues – sometimes entirely amicable, sometimes, alas, less so. In the end, there was a clear result. More than 17 million people voted to leave the EU – more than have ever assented to any proposition in our democratic history. Some now cast doubt on their motives, or even on their understanding of what was at stake.

It is said that those who voted Leave were mainly driven by anxieties about immigration. I do not believe that is so. After meeting thousands of people in the course of the campaign, I can tell you that the number one issue was control – a sense that British democracy was being undermined by the EU system, and that we should restore to the people that vital power: to kick out their rulers at elections, and to choose new ones.

I believe that millions of people who voted Leave were also inspired by the belief that Britain is a great country, and that outside the job-destroying coils of EU bureaucracy we can survive and thrive as never before. I think that they are right in their analysis, and right in their choice. And yet we who agreed with this majority verdict must accept that it was not entirely overwhelming.

There were more than 16 million who wanted to remain. They are our neighbours, brothers and sisters who did what they passionately believe was right. In a democracy majorities may decide but everyone is of equal value.  We who are part of this narrow majority must do everything we can to reassure the Remainers. We must reach out, we must heal, we must build bridges – because it is clear that some have feelings of dismay, and of loss, and confusion.

I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place. At home and abroad, the negative consequences are being wildly overdone, and the upside is being ignored. The stock market is way above its level of last autumn; the pound remains higher than it was in 2013 and 2014.

The economy is in good hands. Most sensible people can see that Bank of England governor Mark Carney has done a superb job – and now that the referendum is over, he will be able to continue his work without being in the political firing-line. Thanks in large part to the reforms put in place by David Cameron and George Osborne, the fundamentals of the UK economy are outstandingly strong – a dynamic and outward-looking economy with an ever-improving skills base, and with a big lead in some of the key growth sectors of the 21st century.

We should be incredibly proud and positive about the UK, and what it can now achieve. And we will achieve those things together, with all four nations united. We had one Scotland referendum in 2014, and I do not detect any real appetite to have another one soon; and it goes without saying that we are much better together in forging a new and better relationship with the EU – based on free trade and partnership, rather than a federal system.

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.

Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry. Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS. Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden.

There is every cause for optimism; a Britain rebooted, reset, renewed and able to engage with the whole world. This was a seismic campaign whose lessons must be learnt by politicians at home and abroad. We heard the voices of millions of the forgotten people, who have seen no real increase in their incomes, while FTSE-100 chiefs now earn 150 times the average pay of their employees. We must pursue actively the one-nation policies that are among David Cameron’s fine legacy, such as his campaigns on the Living Wage and Life Chances. There is no doubt that many were speaking up for themselves.

But they were also speaking up for democracy, and the verdict of history will be that the British people got it right.
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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #3968 on: June 26, 2016, 11:52:36 PM »

You've got the wrong type of credit card for that. You need a 0% spending card or a 0% money transfer card to do what you're talking about.

Nope, a lot of these 'BT' credit cards allow you to transfer cash straight into your bank account now. Or if you already have a credit card, just use that solely for all your purchases then BT that onto the new one. You can BT more than you have even spent (putting you in credit, on your credit card).

The amount you make on it is peanuts compared to what it costs if you get it wrong so it's not a good idea for many people at all.
Yeah you're primarily doing it for an emergency fund (if you have none atm), and the peanuts is just the added bonus.

Only those with a good credit rating and 100% spending discipline should even think about it.

Good point.


JohnCharver - No idea what you're on about regarding washing money fella! I have worked in financial services for ten years and trust my own advice enough not to need an IFA   ;-)
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arbboy
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« Reply #3969 on: June 26, 2016, 11:53:35 PM »

"We who agreed with this majority decision must accept that it was not entirely overwhelming"

Boris Johnson.

Hahahahaha.

You almost have to respect the bare faced cheek of the fella.

Waiting breathlessly for his next move.

We are not leaving the EU. Take that to the bank.

Care to price it up alongside pricing up 2030 whether UK is better of or not outside of the EU which you ignored earlier .

How do you quantify how the UK will be better off or not?

The rich, on the whole, will be better off and the poor will be worse off.

Whether that means the UK is better off or not is a pointless argument.

I said originally the quality of life index that is used around the world to decide all the factors not just the financial issues if you read my original post.
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arbboy
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« Reply #3970 on: June 26, 2016, 11:58:40 PM »

I am sitting in my local curry house and spoke to every member of staff tonight about how they voted.  All UK lifers but Asian origin obviously. . .  Every one of these UK asians voted leave without exception.  I asked why.  Simple answer from them all.  We can't recruit a highly skilled chef from where we want to with skills we need without big work permit hassles but we can get twenty worthless Eastern European waiters with no such hassles.  What difference does it make to our business whether immigrants come from Eastern Europe or Asia?

Interesting! So it was basically a spite vote because the current working laws favour EU workers vs ones from Bangladesh (or wherever they originate from)? I presume they anticipate that the laws to get their guys over will loosen, when in reality they will just get tightened for all the EU workers so the curry house owners will still be in the same position (just without the option of employing a cheap EU waiter).

A good friend of mine is UK-born and worked in his Bangladeshi dad's curry house for many years before running one of his own for a while. I will ask him what all his curry house-owning relations voted for. He said he was personally voting for remain.

It wasn't a spite vote.  It was a vote to explain why we need to allow relatively worthless EU workers into our country with no questions asked verses a highly skilled chef from outside of the EU who would have to jump through hoops to add a lot of value to this country in order for him to get in.  These guys, imo quite rightly, don't understand why employing someone from bangladesh is so much harder than anywhere in the EU.  Neither worker has any ties to the uk short or long term.  The world is a global economy which the EU is becoming less and less relevant the more years go on to the uk and the global economy in general.  If the UK leaves it will become even less relevant by the fact one of the major global financial powerhouses has chosen independently to leave the EU.
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The Camel
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« Reply #3971 on: June 26, 2016, 11:59:08 PM »

"We who agreed with this majority decision must accept that it was not entirely overwhelming"

Boris Johnson.

Hahahahaha.

You almost have to respect the bare faced cheek of the fella.

Waiting breathlessly for his next move.

We are not leaving the EU. Take that to the bank.

Care to price it up alongside pricing up 2030 whether UK is better of or not outside of the EU which you ignored earlier .

How do you quantify how the UK will be better off or not?

The rich, on the whole, will be better off and the poor will be worse off.

Whether that means the UK is better off or not is a pointless argument.

I said originally the quality of life index that is used around the world to decide all the factors not just the financial issues if you read my original post.

I'd happily lay 3/1 yes (assuming we have left the EU)
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Pinchop73
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« Reply #3972 on: June 27, 2016, 12:08:11 AM »

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #3973 on: June 27, 2016, 12:08:18 AM »

Arbs... did Boris order the same curry as you ? Smiley
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« Reply #3974 on: June 27, 2016, 01:05:27 AM »

It will be sad to see the guardian go, when they can still produce writing like this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/brexit-crisis-end-years-cameron-political-vacuum?

The prime minister we hired to take decisions on our behalf has passed the buck back to us for tactical party reasons and resigned when he didn’t like our answer, David Cameron outdoing even Ed Miliband’s resignation for irresponsibility. At least the Titanic had a captain.

In this rapidly evolving drama, Sunday morning newspaper headlines about “Tories in crisis” have already been overtaken by a surge of “Labour in crisis” stories following Jeremy Corbyn’s decision – a decision, at last – to sack Hilary Benn for disloyalty and trigger a mass resignation from the shadow cabinet.

Not that many people outside Labour’s more incestuous tribes look to a Corbyn-led opposition to solve much. Steeped in introspection, ambiguity and a total lack of plausible strategic sense, the Corbynistas aren’t going anywhere. Their feeble-minded impotence during the referendum campaign clinched what many people knew from the start. Call us back when you’re sorted, comrades.

So Labour is irrelevant, absent without leave, as soldiers used to say before we put the now fast-decaying post-war order together, painfully but successfully, after the guns went silent in 1945. Trump, Putin, China’s Xi, they are all assertive nationalists putting the liberal world order and its unprecedented – yes – prosperity (even for the poor) at risk.

The Lib Dems are already pushed aside. Ukip is led by the widely mistrusted Nigel Farage, a lazy crowd-pleaser who cannot work with his own colleagues, has always run away from any whiff of responsibility and disowns any statement that turns out to be unpopular, including his own. That’s why they don’t call him an unpopulist..


A plague on all your houses
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