COVID19

[Doobs]

https://twitter.com/Coronavirusgoo1/status/1371062416390361088

The UK has given over 10 million doses of both the Oxford and Pfizer vaccine.

Number of blood clot related events:

Oxford = 13

Pfizer = 15

These numbers are no higher than what is seen in the general population (no increased risk).



First post under it -

Funny I know nobody that was seriously ill with covid or hospitalised during the whole year yet I personally know 2 people who are very ill, one in critical care with blood clotting on the brain from the vaccine. She's a perfectly healthy 42 year old.

https://twitter.com/LucasArcady

No shock when you spend 30 seconds reading his feed

Doesn't appear that many believe him.

Meanwhile, the state of this pair of dimwits

https://mobile.twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1370763011426770946

So the vaccine reduces fatalities and hospitalisations to near zero after 3 weeks, so we need to focus on the possibility there might be a 40% increase in infections for a week or so after the jab? 

What price Ivor has picked up on this too?  Haven't checked.

[nirvana]

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1371064968079106049?s=19

Against a policy that will no longer exist in a few months?

Seems another architect of Brexit has left the Country.  Fucked it up and fucked off.  WP all.

So tabloid, you have no science or time in which to declare brexit a fuck up, yet you do. This can only be a subjective opinion within your own defined framing. I mean fine, thats ok, but normally your schtick is the voice of reason and science. People know i just say what i think, perhaps you need to caveat your posts to indicate if theyre op eds or scientific analysis.

[nirvana]

Glenn just needs a 'reject bad science' smiley and he's away

Pretty confident one can believe much of the science, and be anti mandatory lockdowns, which i definitely am. I love science and was keen to be jabbed but wanted to give a small example of my reverence

[Marky147]

Glenn just needs a 'reject bad science' smiley and he's away

Pretty confident one can believe much of the science, and be anti mandatory lockdowns, which i definitely am. I love science and was keen to be jabbed but wanted to give a small example of my reverence

As is your right to be, in a free world. Definitely lucky we haven't actually had a lockdown really.

All be over soon, unless you read Betfair forum that is

[Marky147]

Paulie Malignaggi with those CTE takes...

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Think I'll stick to hanging round here Marky

[Marky147]

Think I'll stick to hanging round here Marky

[Doobs]

David Spiegelhalter writes

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links

There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots. So why are people worried?

...

It’s human nature to spot patterns in data. But we should be careful about finding causal links where none may exist

...

Call it luck, chance or fate – it’s difficult to incorporate this into our thinking. So when the European Medicines Agency says there have been 30 “thromboembolic events” after around 5m vaccinations, the crucial question to ask is: how many would be expected anyway, in the normal run of things?

We can try a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation. Deep vein thromboses (DVTs) happen to around one person per 1,000 each year, and probably more in the older population being vaccinated. Working on the basis of these figures, out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect significantly more than 5,000 DVTs a year, or at least 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports.

Meanwhile

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/15/germany-suspends-oxford-vaccine-over-blood-clot-fears

The EU’s three largest countries have suspended the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine, hours after the World Health Organization said it had seen no evidence the shot had caused blood clots in some people who received it.

From a country outside the EU, some of these EU countries seem terrible at working with statistics and seem unable to make rational decisions on which path will lead to the better outcome overall. 

People may assume that cases are falling rapidly in Europe as that is the UK experience, but several European countries are not sharing our path.  France's cases and deaths have been pretty flat and has had very slow vaccine take up, Sweden (year that Sweden) now has more cases than we do and that isn't population adjusted, it is more cases total.   

And somewhere in England, my missus had the vaccine this morning.

Anyway she got the Astra Zeneca one and has seemed determined to find side effects since (see David Spiegelhalter above).  I heard her on the phone earlier that she didn't want that vaccine as "lots of people that took the AZ vaccine had died"...

FWIW Her temperature is still normal 8 hours after the jab, I succumbed and checked for her.  I don't know if she has any blood clots.

[nirvana]

Lets hope no clots. I hear a lot of anecdotal stuff from people i know having 1-3 days of side effects. Mostly one day and mostly the night of the jab. Shivers seems most common and then headachey. I told my wife that people keen to have the jab have no side effects (me) and people not keen have side effects (her). Her response cant be related here but tbf shes no hypochondriac by any stretch so probs real.

[Marky147]

There will be clots, just no more than in the general population, lol.


I had sore arm, some chills night of jab, slept ~12 hours that night, and ~10 the following night.

Was right as rain by the Monday other than pre-existing stuff.

I never normally sleep that well, so maybe I should get one every few days

 

[Marky147]

JC done a vid on it now, too.

[RED-DOG]

They've halted the vaccine rollout because there are less bloodclots than usual?

[RickBFA]

Europe already got the vaccine rollout badly wrong.

Now they make it even worse.

Is a politically motivated thing ?

UK should ask AZ to send unwanted vaccine orders here and let’s crack on more quickly.

[Doobs]

Europe already got the vaccine rollout badly wrong.

Now they make it even worse.

Is a politically motivated thing ?

UK should ask AZ to send unwanted vaccine orders here and let’s crack on more quickly.

I think it is just poor understanding, people just been too cautious and a reluctance to step out of line with their neighbours.  There is no path they can take where people do not get sick or die, surely they know this a year in?

The end result is more die because of the slower rollout and more die because what they have done raises doubts about the vaccines, so take up will be lower.  This seems really obvious to me, so not sure why they are ignoring the person in each room pointing it out to them. 

I don't think we need the vaccinations, as we have lots and probably can't go much quicker than the 4m doses a week for the next couple of weeks.  Australia has more right to complain as their shipment was stopped and nobody is going to use it for a while now.  I am hoping this is really temporary and people see sense.

[Doobs]

More good news.

ONS has weekly deaths falling to near normal levels.  Covid deaths were still fairly high, offset by lower mortality from other causes (as discussed previously here)

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1371758095630753793

There are 2,105 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate this week. This was mostly offset by deaths from other causes being significantly below normal levels.

80% of the deaths with COVID-19 mentioned had it as underlying cause.

...

Good to see deaths almost back within the normal range this week.

Since 2010, deaths in week 9 in England and Wales have ranged from 9,453 in 2011 to 11,472 in 2015 (when we had a particularly bad flu season).

So 11,592 is still bad for the time of year, but not shockingly so.

The CMI mortality monitor is out later today, and is expected to show similar patterns.

Click to see full-size image.