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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 167598 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #4065 on: April 06, 2021, 11:37:27 PM »

Guess they're trying to make use of a warehouse full of unused tests?
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Jon MW
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« Reply #4066 on: April 07, 2021, 08:00:41 AM »

It's generally good to know exactly how widespread an epidemic is but in the current situation it's not feasible to make it mandatory for everybody to take these tests, so making it available is a possible compromise between wanting to know how widespread it is but it not being important enough to make it a legal requirement.

Although - they do have to have the tests available to enable this so there may be an element of just using them up.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #4067 on: April 07, 2021, 09:56:19 AM »

The Government already supports the Zoe App, so gets data from there, and does the random testing (which a couple of people in my house have been invited to do).  Given the lateral flow tests are likely to be less reliable too, then they have better ways of monitoring the spread. Though I guess more data is better, I'd hope they are just getting rid of the job lot they have rather than adding more expense.

Feel like I am starting to sound like the Covid "Recovery" Group these days.

Hey Marky, Ivor has added Pandata to his handle, so guess it isn't long before he starts appearing in amongst their world class team of data manglers. 

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Marky147
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« Reply #4068 on: April 07, 2021, 12:55:30 PM »

He needs a pan, right around his nut!

He loves whipping his muggy followers up into a frenzy on twitter, in part because he knows his game is up soon enough.

I'd imagine even his diet grifting will get the treatment after this, now he has attracted so much attention as a deep data analyst and covid expert Cheesy
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« Reply #4069 on: April 07, 2021, 03:16:02 PM »

John Ioannidis of the crank network has just revised his notorious estimated Covid infection fatality rate of only 0.23%.  Good stuff you say?  Nope, he revised it downwards to 0.15%.

Somebody has saved me the job.

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1378479040877707268

To give an idea of how far out it is, if everybody in the UK had caught Covid, Ionnadis would think only 100,000 would die.  We estimate Covid deaths by 3 main methods, and all show number sabove that (death certificates, 28 day death certificate and excess deaths).  Even the CMI age adjusted mortality figures are showing numbers above that.  FWIW our average age is higher than that of the rest of the World, but we really would have to assume nearly all our population had been infected to make sense of his figures.  Up until all the vaccination happened, I think the UK IFR was closer to 1% than to the 0.6% Worldwide figure quoted by the above thread.  As mentioned in the above thread a lot of the countries with low apparent Covid death rates are simply countries that produce bad data.   
 
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« Reply #4070 on: April 07, 2021, 05:50:43 PM »

Doubledownitis
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« Reply #4071 on: April 08, 2021, 02:52:26 PM »



A quick "Wednesday" update.

Deaths have been falling by 40% a week for some time now, and last week was no different.  A week ago there were only 32 deaths registered in England, which is a long way down from the peak.  This is the most compelling reason that we could ease restrictions sooner.  Deaths are also running below 5 year averages, which is more good news.  There was a lot of talk that other deaths would increase because people had been reluctant to go to the hospital; that hasn't happened yet.  I think it is inevitable that we get more cancer deaths going forward, but it is clear the people who talked about tens of thousands of deaths "caused by lockdown" were pretty wrong.  

Hospitalisations.  There has been steady progress here too, just not as dramatically as with deaths.  Hospitalisations have fallen to below 300 a day, so they are still falling significantly.  

Cases.  As mentioned above, there has been a fall in the numbers this week.  Tim Spector is now reporting 4,500 cases a day, and the Government figures look like about 4,000 a day on average.  This is down from 5,000 a day last week.  I just checked the testing numbers, and they are down noticeably on the week, so at least some of that is down to lower testing.

Talking of testing, I saw this earlier.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/31/fewer-quarter-covid-symptoms-request-test-uk-study.  Fewer than a quarter with Covid symptoms request test... and only half of people knew the main symptoms... and self isolation still seems hit and miss unless somebody actually tells them to.  Seems not trusting people to do the right thing has some basis in fact.

All in all good news for us in the UK, hopefuly we can all go out for a beer soon, albeit at a social distance (or anti-social distance?).
 

I mentioned a couple of days ago that the Government said they weren't publishing some data over Easter.  Well there has been no hospitalisation data for over a week now, so I can't say much about those.

I assume that there is still a lot of lag in the data form last week, as some death reporting will have been delayed by the long bank holiday.  I think deaths are still falling by 40% or so a week, and at this time last week there were around 20 or 30 deaths a day in England.  At that level there is going to be a lot of random fluctuation, so not sure we can read much going forward.

UK Cases were down to near 2,000 a day, but that might be affected by Easter too.  Either way, they have clearly carried on falling since last week.

Basically, data is sparse this week, so I can't say much more, and going forward we are just going to see a lot of randomness.  With deaths at this low level (see below), then these updates are likely to be shorter going forward.

Finally from Tim Spector of the Zoe App

In France- 1 in 2 people are refusing their AZ vaccines because of the fears of clots. The media fail to put risk in context . We have 79 cases total in 4 months. Each day 300 unvaccinated people have strokes and 240 have major clots, some related to medications and lifestyle

So far there have been 19 blood clot deaths that may well have been affected by the 20 million doses of AZ vaccine.  I doubt we have seen 20 million UK Covid infections in total and we may have seen 150,000 deaths (certainly significantly above 100,000).  Unless you are a young female, the illness is way more likely to kill you than the vaccine.  Even with young females, this is probably still true, but there are vaccine options that look safer.  Thhough I state weekly that deaths are falling rapidly, we are still getting more Covid deaths a day than we have seen of this rare blood clot in total.  Please ignore the innumerate "lovers of data" who don't get this.

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« Reply #4072 on: April 08, 2021, 11:19:25 PM »

Apparently your risk of being killed by an AV induced clot is the same as your risk of being killed whilst making a 250 mile car journey.
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« Reply #4073 on: April 09, 2021, 12:11:45 AM »

Apparently your risk of being killed by an AV induced clot is the same as your risk of being killed whilst making a 250 mile car journey.

It wouldn't surprise me, the risk is tiny.  There are just shy of 2000 car deaths a year in the UK, which is about 100 times more than we have had AZ vaccine (possible) deaths.  Very few people worry about impending doom every time they get behind the wheel.

Anyway, a bit technical, but this fella talks about models quite often.

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1379701658813337602

Now he has something approaching consensus with the revised Imperial and Warwick models, in that the most likely scenario is that there is unlikely to be a big wave of Covid deaths in the summer (ie much lower than 100k, but still a lot more than 19) .  Also note that there is quite a bit of uncertainty as you tweak assumptions and big changes can happen in outcomes.  I just read that Wales are bringing forward their reopening, and am not sure why the Government are dragging their feet. 

 
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« Reply #4074 on: April 09, 2021, 06:55:34 AM »

Papers reporting this morning that USA and Malta are a go from May 17.

Green list with no quarantine and a single test on return.

I've started packing just in case!

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #4075 on: April 09, 2021, 07:29:34 AM »

Papers reporting this morning that USA and Malta are a go from May 17.

Green list with no quarantine and a single test on return.

I've started packing just in case!

 Click to see full-size image.


Why is your case called Justin?
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« Reply #4076 on: April 10, 2021, 08:11:13 PM »

One of the grifters Tweeting herself from the wrong account this week, and didn't realise Cheesy

https://twitter.com/RespectIsVital/status/1380647985898532868

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« Reply #4077 on: April 10, 2021, 11:43:18 PM »

One of the grifters Tweeting herself from the wrong account this week, and didn't realise Cheesy

https://twitter.com/RespectIsVital/status/1380647985898532868



Pretty funny.  I see that she has carried on moaning about people trashing her reputation with her own tweets.  Spending a bunch of time spreading conspiracy stuff probably didn't help her reputation much either. 

In positive news, the hospitalisation data is back up.  Only 2,800 people in hospital with Covid right now; at the peak there were 4,000 new ones a day.  Looks like we are heading down to 200 new cases going into hospital a day.

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« Reply #4078 on: April 10, 2021, 11:57:29 PM »

Threatening to sue people and they're all laughing at her Cheesy

I feel pretty sorry for the boozers, they've gotten the worst end of this all ways.

You'd think next week Boris might look up and say ok, open up as you did last year.
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« Reply #4079 on: April 12, 2021, 08:12:39 PM »

Mikey is off  Shocked  Cheesy

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