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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331005 times)
The Camel
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« Reply #21930 on: November 29, 2012, 04:57:47 PM »

Would appreciate feedback on QPR price this weekend.  To my money they are close to the worst team in the Prem at the moment.  Surely the Harry factor is being overrated slightly?  Just dont see how they are evens at home to anyone at the moment even if Jose Mourinho was managing them with Fergie and Wenger as his deputies.

Evens was my price.

Although that might be down to slightly under rating Villa, rather than overrating QPR.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
The Camel
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« Reply #21931 on: November 29, 2012, 05:19:30 PM »

What was the name of the poster who criticised everyone's selections, but never made any of his own?

I wanted to find one of his posts, but just spent 15 minutes looking for them and can't find him.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
aaron1867
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« Reply #21932 on: November 29, 2012, 05:26:25 PM »

Wolves are rated at parity despite being away at Bristol City on Saturday.  Slightly surprised at that I must say?  Wolves have been diabolical and City have shown brief glimpes of life recently.  A team being priced on pre-season expectations rather than reallity?   I think Bristol City are worth a small stakes poke at 13/8.  Any thoughts?

City have showed signs of revival? I am not sure where you got that from really.

From what I can remember they won 3-1 in a ground where you hardly see and they scraped a 0-0 draw the game before. The previous games they have been out played by Millwall & Charlton & before that got thrashed a few times.

Avoiding any bet for result, goals looks like a certainty in the match though
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Marky147
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« Reply #21933 on: November 29, 2012, 05:29:33 PM »

What was the name of the poster who criticised everyone's selections, but never made any of his own?

I wanted to find one of his posts, but just spent 15 minutes looking for them and can't find him.


This guy?

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=16807


Your thoughts on him Cheesy

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1567414#msg1567414
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The Camel
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« Reply #21934 on: November 29, 2012, 05:30:09 PM »

What was the name of the poster who criticised everyone's selections, but never made any of his own?

I wanted to find one of his posts, but just spent 15 minutes looking for them and can't find him.

"AceHighSuited" - just a guess

No not Glasgow Bandit, before your time mate.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
The Camel
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« Reply #21935 on: November 29, 2012, 05:30:40 PM »

What was the name of the poster who criticised everyone's selections, but never made any of his own?

I wanted to find one of his posts, but just spent 15 minutes looking for them and can't find him.


This guy?

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=16807


Your thoughts on him Cheesy

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1567414#msg1567414

That's the fella.

Thanks Mark.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

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« Reply #21936 on: November 29, 2012, 05:45:04 PM »

Heffron v Vassell over 7.5 rounds at 11/10 with Sportingbet is simply wrong. On phone at the minute so can't explain fully but price won't last.


Meh already 5/6. Still a bet. Should be 1/2

Uncanny how these things seem to pop up when I am offline!

The price is 4/7, so unfortunately, we jolly well missed the boaty thing big time.

Incredible spot by Bazza thoiugh, thanks bud.


Hopefully a few others got on.  Sportingbet didn't let me get much on but every little helps.  It was a stupid price.  Two fighters who are pretty evenly matched (Heffron 3/4, Vassell 5/4), both unbeaten, both have <50% wins inside the distance.  That info alone means over 7.5 rounds can never ever be odds against.  The word clueless springs to mind.
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« Reply #21937 on: November 29, 2012, 06:35:33 PM »

I work with Barry McGuigan's brother and yesterday we had a chat about the upcoming Flintoff vs Dawson fight.

Dan (the brother) has been in contact with both Barry and Shane (Flintoff's mentor and trainer) regularly.  Although they are very happy/proud of how Flintoff has trained and describe him as in amazing shape, they are not confident he will win.  The conversation centred on Flintoff's ability to take a body shot and it was thought Dawson's limited experience (both professional and amateur) should be enough to see him home.  I was also assured that Dawson was not a "set up" opponent , although he was described as a "novice" fighter.

Apparently Flintoff can deliver some astonishing poundage with his right hand but has real issues in delivering it properly and consistently, for this reason was described as having no better then a "punchers chance".  Also I believe the bout is only 4 rounds so might be possible for them to dance around each other for that long without it actually getting into a boxing match.

Looking at the info and the odds http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/andrew-flintoff-v-richard-dawson/winner its no bet unless a load of sentimental money pushes Dawson out on the night I guess.

My first ever bit of real inside info for Fred and all I can suggest is No Bet.

If the bit in bold is correct then Dawson at evens is a great bet. 
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tikay
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« Reply #21938 on: November 29, 2012, 06:38:13 PM »

Heffron v Vassell over 7.5 rounds at 11/10 with Sportingbet is simply wrong. On phone at the minute so can't explain fully but price won't last.


Meh already 5/6. Still a bet. Should be 1/2

Uncanny how these things seem to pop up when I am offline!

The price is 4/7, so unfortunately, we jolly well missed the boaty thing big time.

Incredible spot by Bazza thoiugh, thanks bud.


Hopefully a few others got on.  Sportingbet didn't let me get much on but every little helps.  It was a stupid price.  Two fighters who are pretty evenly matched (Heffron 3/4, Vassell 5/4), both unbeaten, both have <50% wins inside the distance.  That info alone means over 7.5 rounds can never ever be odds against.  The word clueless springs to mind.

Me too - that's the main thing really.

Good luck.
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« Reply #21939 on: November 29, 2012, 06:46:53 PM »

I'm posting this on here rather than the chess thread as Fred has an interest.

Top players have, rather than or alongside a coach, one or two other players who travel the world with them to practice with, to analyse games and positions. These are called Seconds and Carlsen's is the world number 49, the Russian GM Ian Nepomniachtchi (Yes, just say it as it reads Smiley ).

He has been denied a visa to come to London because he made an error in the forms. A few calls were apparently made to the embassy and still the answer was No.

The importance of this is easy to overstate: they will have done a lot of prep already and Skype is fine, but they are good friends and when a team that has been doing so well together is affected, the markets need to react.

There's no movement as yet in the first game:
McShane still 7/1 and the draw 4/5.

I don't see it affecting Magnus's chances in the tournament overall, but this is not ideal preparation for game one considering he's not long flown back from Mexico.

Can I recommend a bet? See previous statements, really; it is tough to predict round one of a tournament, especially with an unknown quantity like Luke McShane, but Luke is dangerous, won't draw many games if he performs as he normally does (either gets it right and wins or makes a mistake and loses) and has C&D in beating Carlsen here two years ago.

So this is as much for information as anything else.
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The Camel
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« Reply #21940 on: November 29, 2012, 07:17:47 PM »

What does a second get from this relationship?

A share of the prize money, or just valuable experience of working with a better player?
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tikay
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« Reply #21941 on: November 29, 2012, 07:19:21 PM »

I'm posting this on here rather than the chess thread as Fred has an interest.

Top players have, rather than or alongside a coach, one or two other players who travel the world with them to practice with, to analyse games and positions. These are called Seconds and Carlsen's is the world number 49, the Russian GM Ian Nepomniachtchi (Yes, just say it as it reads Smiley ).

He has been denied a visa to come to London because he made an error in the forms. A few calls were apparently made to the embassy and still the answer was No.

The importance of this is easy to overstate: they will have done a lot of prep already and Skype is fine, but they are good friends and when a team that has been doing so well together is affected, the markets need to react.

There's no movement as yet in the first game:
McShane still 7/1 and the draw 4/5.

I don't see it affecting Magnus's chances in the tournament overall, but this is not ideal preparation for game one considering he's not long flown back from Mexico.

Can I recommend a bet? See previous statements, really; it is tough to predict round one of a tournament, especially with an unknown quantity like Luke McShane, but Luke is dangerous, won't draw many games if he performs as he normally does (either gets it right and wins or makes a mistake and loses) and has C&D in beating Carlsen here two years ago.

So this is as much for information as anything else.


Can you recommend a bet?

Well you are our resident Chess Corry, & we already have an interest in the London Chess Classic (Carlsen to win outright), so yes, we have been awaiting some action from you!

For NOW, we have had a Mini-Banzai - £10 to win on Luke - Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuukkkkke - at 7/1.

Happy to invest a little more if you wish.

We now have TWO bets on the London Chess Classic. How posh are we?

PS - Is this a league format, or a straight knockout thing?


Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuukkkkkeeeee


£10 @ 7/1, Ladbrokes, Luke McShane to beat Magnus Carlson.


ON

Selection7/1 - Luke McShane

EventLuke McShane v Magnus Carlsen London Chess Classic

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Luke McShane
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential Return: £80.00
Time: 29/11/12 19:06
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000199



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Tal
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« Reply #21942 on: November 29, 2012, 07:30:19 PM »

Nitty early is good. I have tried to work out what I think McShane should be priced at (as I am not a price expert in any field) and came to the conclusion that I wouldn't expect him to win more than one in six, so anything over 11/2 looks attractive.

The tournament has 9 players and everyone plays everyone else once in a Round Robin format. They play one game a day and there are nine rounds (each player has a day off - there being an odd number - where they will assist with the commentary for the day), played over 10 days, with Wed 5th being a rest day for everyone.

Lifted from the site:

The 2012 London Chess Classic will take place in the Olympia Conference Centre from Saturday, December 1st until Monday, December 10th. Games start each day in general at 14:00h London time, except for round four (16:00h) and the final round (12:00h). Time controls are classical forty moves in two hours, then twenty moves in one hour and thirty minutes for the rest of the game. A win is counted as three points, a draw as one, and a loss zero.

 Tiebreaks: 1) number of wins, 2) number of wins with black, 3) result of the individual game between the tied players. In the unlikely event that there is still a tie then: 4) 2 x 15'+2" games, and if necessary 5) Armageddon game: 6'+2" vs 5'+2" with draw odds for black. If there is a tie involving more than two players then the Rapid games will be conducted as a double round all play all.

There are nine players, including the three top-ranked in the world, make for a rating average of 2751. The player rested during each round will provide commentary on the games in progress

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« Reply #21943 on: November 29, 2012, 07:36:54 PM »

Tal, Will there be live streaming? I'm intrigued to have a gander when it starts.
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tikay
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« Reply #21944 on: November 29, 2012, 07:39:58 PM »

Thanks Tal. My question was really "were we betting against ourselves?" - if Magnus loses to Luke, was that the Magnus bet dead?

Happily, it seems we can win both ways. Possibly.

Anyway, we have a fun tenner, & we could perhaps consider more.

Might even go take a blonde railing crew to watch him in action, bust him Luuuuuuuuuuukkkee.
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