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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330323 times)
RickBFA
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« Reply #100470 on: May 03, 2015, 02:04:12 PM »

Coventry miss a penalty at Crawley.....



Crawley one up
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superwomble
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« Reply #100471 on: May 03, 2015, 02:06:17 PM »

Palace name a defensive team then Chelsea suddenly lose a defensive player to illness and replace him with an attacking one...
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RickBFA
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« Reply #100472 on: May 03, 2015, 02:25:19 PM »

Coventry miss a penalty at Crawley.....



Crawley one up

1-1 now. 20 minutes left
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tikay
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« Reply #100473 on: May 03, 2015, 02:33:20 PM »

Ceredigion is a previously safe LibDem seat, with a 21% majority for an MP sitting since 2005 and standing again.

A large constituency it is part rural and contains two Universities: Aberystwyth and Lampeter.

It is this 9,000 strong student presence (mostly English students) that has tilted the seat libdem, despite the rural and large welsh speaking influence elsewhere in the constituency

It is the PC number one target and an interesting battle.

For those 9,000 students, after the Libdem tuition fee controversy in the formation of the 2010 coalition can the party rely on the bloc vote as it did in the last two elections? Might this outweigh the anecdotal trend that the LD vote is holding better in their own seats than national polling suggests, the incumbency effect?

So in 2010 the LibDems polled 19,000+ and Plaid Cymru 10,000+. Some forecasters anticipate a drop in the LD vote to around 13-14,000.

If so this is by no means an impossible target for Plaid Cymru, needing to add at least 3,000 to their 2010 total Their candidate Mike Parker was born in Birmingham and is a television presenter. Might he appeal outside the Welsh speaking community?

Ceredigion could be very close indeed.

Now the really interesting thing

Nick Clegg has not visited the constituency in this campaign.

you what?

its not safe, and its LD winnable. why has he not visited?

his answer "i don't have time to visit every seat"

well they have 57, expected to lose 30. 20 of those 30 are lost for sure. surely Ceredigion should be visited?

i think in a month Clegg could visit all 57

what does not going to Ceredigion suggest?

a) he thinks he doesn't need to visit it, they'll win

or

b) he thinks there's no point visiting it, its lost

or

c) with 9,000 students his visit would be counter-productive....implying they'll lose most of these votes

6/4 PC to win the seat.

all aboard

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party


as a cross-check

PC have three seats, odds on to hold all three

generally they are shorter than 6/4 over 3.5 seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-plaid-cymru

another crosscheck the journalist Iain Dale has forecast each constituency over the past couple of years

last week he wrote (after i first wrote most of the above)

"Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong. UPDATE: I had a flood of correspondence suggesting I have got this wrong. Looking at some of the Welsh blogs and academic websites I’m tempted to agree."

http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/03/17/revised-general-election-predictions-for-wales

This is incredible work. I´ve never felt sorry for a bookie before and I´m confident(ish) that I never will again but how can they compete with this? It´s one of my sayings that to get ahead in gambling (and life) you need to work harder or apply more intelligence than the competition. Seems to me like Tighty has done both here. Thank you sharing this, it´s very impressive. They´ll probably only let me have a tenner each now, the b******s! ;-)

Get on please Tighty, nothing silly, but must be worth a betlet.
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Chompy
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« Reply #100474 on: May 03, 2015, 02:34:51 PM »

Hello...

Goal for Posh at Oldham...

What's going on here please? Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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« Reply #100475 on: May 03, 2015, 02:35:36 PM »

OIOI Chompy time to wheel out Jimmy Savile I reckon.
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« Reply #100476 on: May 03, 2015, 02:36:02 PM »

Hello...

Goal for Posh at Oldham...

What's going on here please? Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Tremendous, well done!
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tikay
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« Reply #100477 on: May 03, 2015, 02:41:03 PM »

OIOI Chompy time to wheel out Jimmy Savile I reckon.

BOOMIO.


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Chompy
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« Reply #100478 on: May 03, 2015, 02:41:12 PM »

.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
tikay
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« Reply #100479 on: May 03, 2015, 02:45:40 PM »

Troy Deeney is back from injury now getting a run out as sub on Saturday - looks big at 50-1 with Victor to be top scorer.  He's on 3, Assombo on 9, Martin on 8.  The each way at 1/4 for top 4 places looks a decent runner.  Will always play as captain, takes pens, rarely injured and in a team which should score a bundle of goals.  Has scored 20+ in both the last two seasons,

Think we should have a small each way dabble.  £10 ew or something.  Unless he gets injured again, I think it's a good chance he finishes in the top 4.  33-1 and shorter elsewhere.
 




BUMPED.

Perfectly predicted, not bad for a 50/1 shot, thanks Dung.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #100480 on: May 03, 2015, 02:46:26 PM »

.

Marv

Did you know, as of now, we have an 11% ROI on football over 1,153 bets and over £35,000 Wagered?

that's very good from everyone. reasonable sample!

and temporarily the overall profit is over £7,000 again
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Chompy
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« Reply #100481 on: May 03, 2015, 02:47:10 PM »

Oops, wrong photo

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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
tikay
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« Reply #100482 on: May 03, 2015, 02:48:26 PM »

6/1 Bamford for top Middlesbrough scorer? (BMU)

He's obv not going there to sit on the bench and Evs Kike, 6 Bamford seems too big a gap to me.

Rec £25 @ 6-1

BUMPED

Another good'un, thanks Chompster.
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« Reply #100483 on: May 03, 2015, 02:53:16 PM »

Careful.

Too much celebration will stir the Dungster!

Nice one Chompy.
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
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« Reply #100484 on: May 03, 2015, 02:53:48 PM »

Good stuff!

Mayweather costs me some more money, as I missed those Cheesy
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