blonde poker forum

Im interested   :) as I do follow tennis in a fashion

The only thing I would say with a post like this and a starting points stake of 150 is that its better to vary the staking amount based on how much you fancy the selection & value etc

But hey its your thread   :)

Good Luck  

Cool

Im with you on a few...Are you using Betfair /oddschecker for your prices ?

My account got banned on betfair

was it for botting?  how much was in the account, around £1000 perhaps?

Strange...non helpful post .......

Im interested   :) as I do follow tennis in a fashion

The only thing I would say with a post like this and a starting points stake of 150 is that its better to vary the staking amount based on how much you fancy the selection & value etc

But hey its your thread   :)

Good Luck 

wasn't meant to be helpful - just an obv bad joke

Not a bad joke at all, I lolled, & I imagine many others did, too!

I would imagine that Fraser missed all that Betfair plaver with the dodgy Account, he's generally up for a laugh, at least, he is in real life.

I'm interested in the thinking behind that statement. I mean, either you think you're backing a winner or you don't.

Fully prepared to have my mind changed BTW...

I'm interested in the thinking behind that statement. I mean, either you think you're backing a winner or you don't.

Fully prepared to have my mind changed BTW...

Are you researching the games at all or just backing underdogs when you fancy a bet?  Will  you be following the live games on Eurosport etc when they are on?  Do you intend to trade your way to riches or will it be match bets only?

I quite like tennis and wish I had more time to follow it.

Good luck :)

To do with value.
If I said I'd pay you 2/1 on rolling an even number on a fair die you might have £1 on it.
If I told you I'd pay you 10/1 for the same thing you might want to bet a bit more as it was such a good opportunity.

Not a bad joke at all, I lolled, & I imagine many others did, too!

I would imagine that Fraser missed all that Betfair palaver with the dodgy Account, he's generally up for a laugh, at least, he is in real life.

I'm interested in the thinking behind that statement. I mean, either you think you're backing a winner or you don't.

Fully prepared to have my mind changed BTW...

Hi Tom

Not trying to change your mind just offer my reasoning..

If you are picking selections to a level stake every bet  (ie £10)  to generate a decent profit the exercise is not really feasible(in my opinion)unless you fluctuate the stake .

for example putting £10 on a 1-5 to win shot to win £2 would probably better lend itself  to £50 whereas if a selection was 5- 1 you might want to consider halving the bet (ie £5) o reflect the odds....by the same token if you have really strong information on a player (like hes ill etc) and you give him a lot stronger chance of winning than another of your selections you may think its value to increase your stake accordingly hence my logic to altering the bet sizes..Its really all about adjusting for value

I see you in betting threads a fair bit Tikay; did you dabble quite a bit in the past/do you still?

I guess I should add that these days, I mainly "punt" via Staking on poker, which, thus far, has worked out OK, I just got lucky I think. Maybe time to quit, eh?

OK, thread hijack is over, I better scuttle back to my "boring uncultured old man" Diary.

Reason number 1 (of what will be a very long season) as to why in-play trading is a must:

That seems to make sense... but what about the botting?

I'm probably a candidate for Gamblers Anon, in truth, except that I'm too famous to be Anon these days.

I'm afraid I have, throughout my life, gone the whole nine yards, & a bit more besides, punting, during my life.

I stated with regular punting on the horses in the Betting shops, in fact, I can date it almost to the day - I did my first lump in the 1974 Derby, on a horse that could not possibly win - Snow Knight, Bryan Taylor was up top, (the horse was trained by Peter Nelson), & was thrown from the animal in the parade ring, & the horse then played up shocking going down. No way he could win, of course. He cantered up @ 50/1, & I did a week's wages.

I got heavilly into the horse in the next 20 years, I was a Member at Cheltenham, Newmarket, & Southwell (!), & I subscribed to all the usual punters gumf, mainly Timeform Racecards, etc. In fact, I had the honour & pleasure to meet both Phil Bull & Reg Griffin on numerous occasions, & I was a sort of regular visitor at Timeform House in Halifax.  I doubt I failed to have a bet less than 10 days in 20 years, during which I learned a lot, & lost even more.

Dogs, too, at one stage, I was dog racing 5 or 6 nights per week - White City, Hackney BAGS (Saturday mornings), Haringey, Walthamstow, Wimbledon, Hendon, Watford, & in later years, Slough BAGS etc. I adored Slough as a track, in fact. I done my money in these punting forecast doubs & trebs, 112 x 10p Forecast Doubles, da de da.....

Later - much later, I discovered Spread betting, groan.....I adored it, & it gives me a tingle even to this day to think about the buzz it gave me. I was with IG Index, & back in the day, what a punter had to do if he wanted to punt "unlimited" was produce a Bank Statement every 3 months proving they were "good" for £50k. So I did that, & loved it. Every Monday, settlement was by cheque. Trust was still around then!

Then I had 2 shocks, days apart.

First up, I was on the Arsenal one Sunday afternoon up @ Old Trafford, on something called "Supremacy", I think I was on at £500 per goal, or whatever. It was carnage - 6-1, I seem to recall. I had plenty of chance to "get out" (you just reversed the bet to get out) but like the fool I am, I hung in, & did the lot, the fat end of £3k as I recall.

Days later, I was a Guest of IG Index at a "private" Golf weekend, @ The Belfry. This was not long after, or before, the Ryder Cup was held there, I think. I booked in & was given a "King Suite", in it was a complete wardrobe of new golf gear, also a note that my Tee-Time on the Saturday morning was 9am, on the Brabazon Course (THE best course @ Belfry).

I toddle up @ 9am the next morning, & there on the tee was Sam Torrance & Ken Brown. "Oh, sorry Guys, thought I was booked for 9am" sorta thing. And I was - I had 18 holes with those two, err, "duffers".

Later, I thought it through, why would IG be so nice to me? A quick look at my Statement confirmed the inevitable. That Golf Weekend had cost me the fat end of £30,000......

The very same week, I discovered Poker, & I snap gave up punting. I think I may have wagered a total of £100 since then, just on Corporate days out at York Races with SB&G etc, nothing else, not a bean.

Snap "cured"?

Not really!

I still yearn to punt, it's like alcholism, or gambling anon, the bug never leaves me, but so far, I've resisted.

My current desire is to mess around on the exchanges, Betfair utterly fascinates me, the maths & logic seem right up my street, but so far, I've managed to resist.

Whether I can continue to resist is another matter altogether. But make no mistake, I've won & lost fortunes gambling. And I do mean fortunes. I'm not proud of it, not at all, but I've never borrowed or stolen to punt, but I have sent myself skinto several times, & dug myself out - by working, not punting - each time. Don't really wanna go down that road again, not at my age!

So yes, I still love to see what's happening with the punting, & have a little smile to myself when I see "idiot betting" - folks doing short-priced accas on football & horses etc.

I tried the "other side" as a youngster too, & took a "Settling Course" with Wm Hill (this was pre Computers or even Genies) which I passed, I think I scored 99.3%, & they offered me a job as a LBO Manager, but I wanted to own my own Shop, so I declined. Then began 5 years in trying to buy a second hand" LBO, & that's a story in itself, believe me.

Now, I have ended up in a lovely place, I work in poker, & work for a "Gaming Site". Every day, I get several updates as to our Sky Bet liabilities, who we want to win, who we want to get beat, then @ 9am the next morning, on the very dot, I see all the numbers, which are midnight-midnight daily, & split into each sport, & each of the "arms" of SB&G. And the daily poker "margin", we look to keep making better numbers, obv, & these are split into each format - so that gives me a kick, a buzz, too, as the Company is stunningly successful. (Ignore all the "SB&G is shit" nonsense, the business is incredible).

I cannot imagine living without the thrill of a punt, be it regular betting, poker, whatever, so I've fallen pretty lucky now, to be honest. I have a pretty impressive library of Bloodstock books, & books about legendary punters, etc. The whole scene just thrills me to bits.

I'm probably a candidate for Gamblers Anon, in truth, except that I'm in remission, & have been for a decade or more. The urge is still there, though, I just satisfy it in other ways. I've never lost money at poker, never made much, either, I just play small-ball, & nick a bit here & there, nice & quietly, whilst the kids shout & scream if they have a winning night, & tell me I cannot play, because I'm over 40, bless them.

Sorry for the overly long reply - as you can seee, I have a bit of a passion for punting.

Carry on guys, as you were.....;)

tikay

just a few Q if u dont mind

did u always work within the gaming industry?

also do u ever play the house games? is yes which ones?

Great questions,  I'll field them a little later Paul, as I'm on several Omaha Cash Tables right now, & I'm also getting a bit of grief in the chatboxes, as per, so I'm a bit pulled out.

Cultured tosser.

Kanepi @ 6/5 v Pavlyuchenkova
Ito @ 11/4 v Tomic
Petzschner @ 5/6 v Giraldo
Baghdatis @ 8/11
Andreev @ 2 v Dolgopolov
Andreev +3.5 @ 10/11
Haas @ 5/6 v Istomin
Haas -1.5 @ 13/8 v Istomin
Vesnina @ 6/5 v Vinci
Georges @ 1/1 v Kerber
McHale @ 13/8 v Kuznetsova

Those are all the midnight till - 10am games I'm interested in. Will post Doha and Chennai later.

(http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/6892/tennism.th.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/607/tennism.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

Just so people are aware that I am indeed following the matches I bet on!

May look to trade out on Sela if he wins the set. Will post it in here.

Got 3 units at 4/7 and a further 4 at 2/1.

with you on sela

I really think you need a betfair account for this  ?

At the commission rate as it stands I'm not sure it's worth it.

Huge, huge hold from Paire there. Still undecided on the trade.

where you watching  it please?

Good post Tikay

At the commission rate as it stands I'm not sure it's worth it.Huge, huge hold from Paire there. Still undecided on the trade.

http://www.lshunter.tv/tennis-live-streaming-video.html

All the streams are working I believe. Good site.

...for example...If a player is 1-3 at the bookies normally his opponent is 9 -4 ,this makes the fav  a 1.33 shot on betfair and his opponent exactly opposite that ie 4.0... so 3 -1 less commision...in this example you are giving up 3 quarters of a point on the outsider ?.. just think you are having to back the winning players and beat the bookmakers price which is hard work  especially betting on so many matches...Im not criticising just calling it as I see it

Morning.

After I answered, at some length it must be said - a question on here a day or so ago, several questions & comments were Posted, & I want to reply to them all, as I love talkng about punting & suchlike.

However, it's counter-productive to take a Tennis betting Thread so off-toipic, so I'm going to re-post my piece, & deal with all the questions arising from it, on my Diary, which is here.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=25486.24720

I doubt I've ever bet on a Tennis match in my life, but I am loving this thread, & all the other specialist punting threads we have here (to a lesser or greater degree!), so respect to the Authors, & may they long continue.

As you were.....

Have you ever been ? or do you still harbour ambitions to be A Sergeant Major ?  :)

Lol, no!

I wish I had - I think a few years in the Services would have done me, or anyone, for that matter, the world of good, there is little not to like about good self-discipline, it would improve pretty much everyone's quality of life.

Anyway, I really am conscious that my Post, & the comments from it, is taking this Diary a little too much off-topic, the last thing I had intended, but stick stuff on my Diary, & I'd expand at length. Great length......

Is anyone else laying Nadal vs Youzhny? 1.17 to trade should he not crush him?

If Red-Dog is still reading, this is the kind of bet that one wouldnt be sure of winning by any means. The bet essentially is not me saying 'I think Youzhny will beat Nadal', it's me saying, 'Youzhny has a good chance of not being crushed by Nadal'.

If he can get his nose in front at some point, the price will swing, and even if Nadal is still favourite at that point, it should be enough for me to at least bet enough so that I get my stake back, with the option to spread profit across both players.


Edit: Nadal started like a train! Hold on Youzhny!

Yes. Still reading. Great thread, albeit somewhat side-tracked by you-know-who's tales of degeneracy. (I can't believe everyone swallowed it. Did you know he used to be a presenter on Jackanory?)

Anyway, re the Youzhny v Nadal match. You fancy him a bit. Well OK, but before long, there will be someone who you fancy quite a lot.

Why not save your money and lump it on him?.

Solaris - do you use any stats sites for research?  Do you have any spreadsheets/models that you use?

I will also be making my own spreadsheet, but I'm effectively starting from scratch and it's a long, slow process so I don't have much done right now.

Best of luck.

The probability of winning the set is the difficult problem unless you sre a maths wiz.  There are papers on the net that probably have the correct model*, but taking their equations/functions and translating them into something that works in a spreadsheet is beyond me.......

*eg http://statracket.net/A.%20James%20O%27Malley.pdf

The first line of the abstract says "In this paper an expression for the probability of winning a game in a tennis match is derived
under the assumption that the outcome of each point is identically and independently distributed.".

This strikes me as a very poor assumption.

I think its only a matter of time before  Jo - Wilfred Tsonga  at fancy prices will break through on hard surface courts this year...Australian Open  first ( 22 -1  ) then the US open later in the year

Maybe let me know what you think Solaris please  ? and any other hard court tournaments / surfaces  he may enter

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens-australian-open/winner

Think that is ok as a model for most of a match - presumably you a referring to choking on important points?

Monfils @ 6/5 v Tsonga (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Zheng @ 9/4 v Pennetta (2 units)

Safarova @ 6/4 v Ivanovic
Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units)
Oprandi @ 10/11 (3 units)
Cirstea @ 11/10 v Pervak
Zakopalova @ 10/11 v Halep (2 units)
U Radwanska @ 11/8 v King (2 units)

Fair play to Tsonga, he was excellent from *5-3 to Monfils. Was expecting Monfils to take the set and then was planning to trade out but Tsonga just blew him away to win 4 straight games and the set.

Pre-match profit: 148.67 (- 1.33)

In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 11.67 units.

I'd be interested to know why you are backing Urszula Radwanska.

Great thread, btw.

People have been saying that for a long, long time. He'd be a decent e/w bet provided he's not in Novak's half of the draw. Can't look past Djokovic right now, he's just so far above the rest it's scary. I'm yet to see any evidence that the rest are close to catching him up. This will be Tsonga's last tournament before the Aussie Open. Generally speaking nobody who has a chance of winning it would ever consider playing the week before.

Tsonga's best chance of winning titles will be the few tournaments straight after the Aussie Open and towards the back end of the season when they switch to an indoor hard surface. He tends to play best on these surfaces. His record last year on them was 22-6 with wins in Metz, Vienna and finals in Rotterdam, Paris and the World Tour finals. Tellingly he didn't make a single hard-court final last year and his record was 18-9.

I like the guy a lot, but he always falls short and I see no reason why that's going to change. This week alone Tsonga has made a really easy draw unnecessarily difficult. Provided I can get a decent price I will be backing Monfils today.

Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units) PENDING Cibulkova *4-3 up final set.

Pre-match profit: 156.5 (+ 6.5)
 
In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 19.5 units

Granollers @ evens v Ebden (2 units)
Granollers to win 2-0 @ 5/2
Oprandi @ 6/4 v Barthel
Scheepers to win 2-0 @ 6/5 v Czink (2 units)
Vinci @ 6/4 v Hantuchova
Pavlyuchenkova @ 8/5 v Petkovic
Watson @ 11/10 v Pironkova
Morita @ 6/5 v Gajdosova (2 units)

Good luck with those WTA picks.

Don't fancy any of them then?  ;D

Don't fancy any of them then?  ;D

Good profit so far well done

Any chance you could have " a bet of the day " ? please

As it stands I cant keep track of your tennis madness   :)

Vinci and Pavlyuchenkova strike me as "brave" selections.

Can't fault you on your previous selection of Urszula Radwanska though - she didn't concede a point.  ;D
I have no idea where her win over Benesova came from. Either she has made a quantum leap over the close season or Benesova was well below par.

Really enjoying looking at your choices - it's giving me a different perspective on the game.

Any thoughts on why Zvonareva is available at 11/13 to beat Kuznetsova?
Apart from it being Zvonareva's first game of the year, it looks a pretty easy match for her.
Kuznetsova's 7-4 H2H advantage is all historic and irrelevant.

Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units) PENDING Cibulkova *4-3 up final set. WON + 1.66 units
Granollers @ evens v Ebden (2 units)
Granollers to win 2-0 @ 5/2 LOST - 1 unit
Oprandi @ 6/4 v Barthel LOST - 1 unit
Scheepers to win 2-0 @ 6/5 v Czink (2 units) WON + 2.4 units
Vinci @ 6/4 v Hantuchova LOST - 1 unit
Pavlyuchenkova @ 8/5 v Petkovic LOST - 1 unit
Watson @ 11/10 v Pironkova LOST - 1 unit
Morita @ 6/5 v Gajdosova (2 units)

Adding in-play: Schiavone @ 2/1 v Stosur (2 units) WON + 4 units

Pre-match profit: 155.61 (+ 5.61)
 
In-play profit: 17 units

Total profit: 22.61 units

Super tilting that the stream for the Watson match crashed so I couldn't trade out. She blew 4 match points too. FML.

@MereNovice: Sadly, you got the WTA picks right. Had been told there was a potential problem for Petkovic with an injury. Came from someone who knows a "source". Full of shite that bloke.  :D

That'll teach me for listening to others, never normally bloody do!

Adding in-play: Granollers @ 7/2 v Ebden  (3 units) @ 1-6 first set to Ebden

MereNovice, aka Vince.

Some fine words, advice, & selections there, on the LADIES Tennis.

So, tell us what you know about MENS Tennis......

Kvitova is prohibitively priced at 3/1 for the Australian Open, sadly.

Any thoughts on Agnieszka Radwanska at 11/10 to beat Wozniacki?
Obviously there is Wozniacki's massive H2H edge to consider but Radwanska is in far better form?

hi mate,

Ive been catching up with your thread the last few days and enjoyed

Im not a tennis an myself but might throw a few sheckles at the Aussie open fancies.


gl m8

Cheers. Think there will be some huge value at the Aussie Open. Been watching a lot of games so far and whilst I've made some bad selections at times I feel very much in-tune with the form of players etc. Will post my NAPs for the day and a couple of double/trebles that might be worth a go.

hi mate,

Ive been catching up with your thread the last few days and enjoyed

Im not a tennis an myself but might throw a few sheckles at the Aussie open fancies.

gl m8

Yeah, just annoying when you make bad selections you knew you should have avoided, but c'est la vie!

Aussie Open Qualifiers

Vesely @ 42/41 v Capkovic
Dustov @ 5/6 v Patrick-Smith
Veic @ 8/11 v Farah (2 units)
Brzezicki @ 8/11 v Ghem
Rufin @ 3/4 v Rieschick (2 units)
Phau @ evens v Clement
Guccione @ 21/20 v Schuettler
Kudla @ 6/5 v Ciric
Serra @ 10/11 v Ginepri
Gremelmayr @ 6/5 v Zemlja
Yugita @ 19/20 v Bemelmans
Lodja @ 5/6 v Silva
Cervantes-Huegun @ 13/8 v Ward

I would bet on most things Tony but the one thing that ladies tennis has over men is its nice to watch.

You are as bad as that MereNovice.  You can also bet on Mens Tennis, you know.

Sad to see some former top 16 players in the qualifiers (Clement, Schuettler and Ginepri).

Surely they'd rather retire than traipse around qualys and the challenger tour?

Ahh I see, Tony has been posting semi porn dressed up (or should that be undressed) as adverts on his diary too ;o)

Benneteau @ 10/11 v Lopez (4 units)
Benneteau @ 21/10 to win 2-0
Ebden @ 5/2 v Baghdatis
Harrison @ 11/10 v Kohlscreiber (2 units)
Almagro @ evens v Giraldo (2 units)
Wozniacki @ 5/6 v Radwanska (2 units)
Safarova @ 2/1 v Na (2 units)
Bartoli @ 2/1 v Azarenka

Pre-match profit: 152.60 (+ 2.60)
 
In-play profit: 14 units

Total profit: 16.60 units

I'm conscious of the fact I keep editing my posts to enter in results. I'm therefore going to stop doing this from now on in the interests of fair play. If I find an in-play bet, I will make a new post. Might lead to me being a slight spammer in this thread, but I assume that wouldn't be too much of an issue.

I'm going to add a post later with a lot of Aussie Open qualifying picks so if I find any additional bets I wish to make with the ATP and WTA events I'll put them in that post. Need to eat first as there's LOTS of qualifying matches to go through.

I think this makes a great deal of sense.

Might be worth considering.....

1) Posting the Selections exactly as you do now.

2) As the results come in, do a "new" Post by simply quoting the original Post, (including the selections) with the result enboldened.

Never worry about making too many Posts. The more Posts you make, the more likely you are to get viewers to the thread.

Yep, started doing that as of tonight. Didn't want to clutter the thread, but then again it's my thread so I'm only going to clutter it with stuff that's hardly likely to annoy me!

Tikay, did you see that I intend to dedicate an Aussie Open ladies thread just for you once it all kicks off. Think you'll enjoy that.

Daniella Hantuchova. Far too easy.

Never apologise for hijacking. More because 1) you aren't 2) you're always interesting and I enjoy your worldly wisdom.

Anyway, I shall bid you farewell for now. Got to stare at Victoria Azarenka for a while (as part of a bet, obviously)!

Alona Bondarenko I believe.

For you viewing pleasure research a Ms. Ivanovic, Now there's a fine lady.

Alona Bondarenko I believe.

For you viewing pleasure research a Ms. Ivanovic, Now there's a fine lady.

Daniella Hantuchova. Far too easy.

Never apologise for hijacking. More because 1) you aren't 2) you're always interesting and I enjoy your worldly wisdom.

Anyway, I shall bid you farewell for now. Got to stare at Victoria Azarenka for a while (as part of a bet, obviously)!

Has the Azarenka feed gone down or is it just me?

Petkovic is out for up to 6 weeks, I believe, so your source seems good.
She just managed to last one match too many from your point of view. :(

Serena Williams v Tamira Paszek in the first round. A match of boom or bust, I reckon.

I'm looking forward to Kirilenko v Gajdosova and Sharapova v Dulko, personally.

Vince!

(http://i42.tinypic.com/wjyruf.jpg)

Pre-match profit: 166.49 (+ 16.49)
 
In-play profit: 14 units

Total profit: 30.49 units

It's finally here. Wooooooooooo.

Tonight's action:

Ward @ 11/10 v Kavcic
Huta Galung @ 6/5 v Berlocq (2 units)
Lacko @ 6/5 v Ljubicic
Tomic to win 3-0 @ 3/1
Fognini @ 2/1 v Falla
Rochus to win 3-0 @ 12/5

Voskoboeva @ 7/4 v Wickmayer
Daniilidou @ 6/4 v Date Krumm
Cetkovska @ 9/10 v Morita
Brianti @ 10/11 v Falconi
Cornet @ 13/8 v Niculescu

Will add more later.

Are you basing your women's choices on looks (or is it just me that does that)?

Nap and nb please

Rough time them 4 games are on?

Bet all 4, if you get the 4fold up nice drink in it for you :)

On the basis there's something in it for me, all 4 will lose. ;)

Thanks all the same.

Camel, tbf I hope Ladcrokes burn to the ground! Get your meaning though. Would say it's almost too hot though. No need for players to be playing in near 40 degree heat which it can get too.

Unless I'm wrong the policy of playing each day to a close (weather permitting) is an awesome idea too. Not sure the players love 3am finishes though!

Good start with a comfortable win for Daniilidou.
Nice one.

Ladbrokes by far the best of the big bookmakers imo. Beat Coral and Hills hands down in all areas, Betbaldie and Paddy Power don't even deserve to be mentioned in the same breath.

Ward @ 11/10 v Kavcic LOST - 1 unit
Nielsen + 6.5 @ 4/5 vs Anderson LOST - 1 unit
Tomic to win 3-0 @ 3/1 LOST - 1 unit
Daniilidou @ 6/4 v Date Krumm WON + 1.5 units
Cetkovska @ 9/10 v Morita (2 units) WON + 1.8 units

+ 0.3 units

Huta Galung @ 6/5 v Berlocq (2 units)
Lacko @ 6/5 v Ljubicic
Fognini @ 2/1 v Falla
Rochus to win 3-0 @ 12/5 (2 units)
De Schepper @ 4 v Querrey
De Schepper + 6.5 @ 5/6 vs Querrey
Gojowczyk @ 6/4 v Young (2 units)
Gojowczyk 3-0 @ 7/1 (2 units)
Voskoboeva @ 7/4 v Wickmayer (2 units)
Brianti @ 10/11 v Falconi
Cornet @ 13/8 v Niculescu (2 units)

What a complete ***** Jurgen Melzer is too. Losing to Karlovic is shameful.

Stick with the women; you know it makes sense.

How the hell could you back Ward!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I put 3 bets on my twitter to start the day, Kavcic to beat Ward @ 1.94, Cipolla to beat Davydenko @ 4.1 and Ormaechea to beat Halep @ 2.92.

Got off to a great start with 3/3, then lost a lot of it back continuing to back Verdasco in the final set @ 2.9 (still maintain it was a big price).

Moving forward today the other 3 I've backed are Voskoboeva aswell @ 7/4, Barty @ 3.4 (the young Australian/junior Wimbledon champion/junior world number 2 but shes only 15! but can cause Tatishvilli problems) and Foretz Gacon @ 3.35 (2-0 up H2H & Baltacha is gash). Not massively confident on any of the 3 was just a price thing.

Good bet on Dolgo mate, he will get it done for sure from here.

Looks a deece card tomorrow.

Rochus 3-0 looking good for you too, I should've been on that really, the midget is playing out of his skin atm.

Naps and nbs sinking quicker than the cruise ship

Oh dear, maybe I should have google image searched this 15 year old before I backed her.

She looks about 9: http://www.tennis.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Barty-Ashleigh-e1284537857114-694x768.jpg

20-1 all 4 of them lose Solaris- funny old game ain't it

On. Always give a man a second chance

Rosol @ 9/4 v Petzschner
Chela @ 11/13 v Russell
Bachinger @ 10/11 v Sweeting
Mello @ 5/6 v Bautista-Agut (2 units)
Mello to win 3-0 @ 4/1
Bellucci @ 11/10 v Sela (3 units)
Bellucci to win 3-0 @ 11/2
Troicki - 4.5 @ 9/10 (2 units)
Gasquet - 5.5 @ evens
Gajdosova @ 6/5 v Kirilenko (2 units)
Cirstea @ 18/5 v Stosur
Riske @ evens v U Radwanska (3 units)
Riske to win 2-0 @ 23/10
Zakopalova @ 3/1 v Pavlyuchenkova

1 unit on a Bellucci 3-0, Riske 2-0 double.

Just for the sake of interest; the four I'd pick tonight are: Bellucci, Gajdosova, Riske, Stephens.

Will no doubt add more later.

5/6 yesterday so was looking really good until I somehow managed to lose half my profits trading on the Cornet Niculescu game. Poor play by me, I hadn't slept for about 30 hours, should have just gone to bed.

Trappier card tonight, stale prices everywhere, can't see anything in the Womens.

Backing 4 outsiders pre-match:

Ito > Starace @ 2.32
Kukushkin > GGL @ 2.66
Haase > Roddick @ 4.1
Stebe > Hewitt @ 7/2

Cirstea and Zakopalova.
Obviously Pavlyuchenkova and Stosur aren't setting the world alight at the moment but both will be good enough, I think.
It will be interesting to see.

Fuck me, I can only hope Rosol intends on retiring.

0-6 0-3*

 Great pick ;ashamed;

On the other hand, Zakopalova is hanging in well against Pavlyuchenkova and Gajdosova hasn't thrown the toys out of the pram despite going a break down early.

Gajd is so unbelievably brain dead though. She tries to hit winners from ridiculous angles. Getting very frustrated watching her.

I know exactly what you mean. She drives me potty sometimes.

At least you "forgot" to tip against Vania King. :)

Adding in-play: Russell @ 11/10 3-2 15-0 (5 units)

Chela looks massively disinterested.

Zvonareva struggling again.

She'll win in straight sets.

Need Russell to take this set so I can trade out.

Cirstea wins.
Chela wins 3-0.

Good 10 minutes for you. :)

Indeed. Created a mess in the Chela match. Thought Russell would serve it out at 5-3, then he had set points and missed them so didn't get the chance to trade out. Watched the whole game though and once it went 2-0 in sets there was only one winner.

Glad Cirstea won. Much the better player. Can't believe Stosur is a grand slam champion, her forehand is abysmal.

Harsh! I think Stosur's forehand is excellent generally. Cirstea played superbly today - the best I've ever seen her play, I think.

Adding:

Stebe @ 7/2 v Hewitt (2 units)

Where on earth is/was the 7-2?

fucking Stebe.

Came back from the dead to lead 5-1 in the 4th set and Hewitt was huffing and puffing away and Stebe went as low as 1.77 at this point.

Then he just hits a brick wall and instantly chokes and goes from playing lights out tennis to not getting a ball over the net. Lost 6 games in a row to lose 7-5 and the match 3-1. Disgusting scenes.

Hewitt is so finished at the game its unreal though, feel sorry for him. Don't expect an epic encounter when he meets Roddick.

stan james retirement rules?

I was absolutely anihilated on the Stebe match.  Thought Chewitt was dead on his feet so bought Stebe points supremacy on the spreads heavily when he lead 5-1 in the fourth estimating that he would run away with the 5th set and he hardly won a point after that the useless sack of dung.  My cunning hedge in case Hewitt was tanking the 4th and made a match of the 5th set was to buy total games.

And of course my musings on the 5th set were redundant and both bets exploded in my face   :(. 

Hope Ito wins but don't like the match up of styles.

My only bets are Benneteau @ 11/8 as previously discussed and Roddick 3-0 @ 2.9 with 3-1 no bet.

Hope Ito wins but don't like the match up of styles.

My only bets are Benneteau @ 11/8 as previously discussed and Roddick 3-0 @ 2.9 with 3-1 no bet.

Nah he means he has saved on 3-1 to break level

Is this called a "smash" in Tennis?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iAOhUYdOt0

Dolgopolov my only bet this evening at just above 6/5 vs Tomic.

3-0 up on the H2H, more talented for sure, only big worry is that Dolgo has had 2 tough 5 setters and in both has gone through long spells of mediocrity.

Still too big.

Edit: looks like i'm against Solaris!

lol, tbh I think Isner will win.

I would have taken the early EVS if I had been quick off the mark but can't back him at 4/5.

I do like your Wawrinka handicap bet tho!

Adding in-play: Goerges @ 10/3 v Opandi (5 units) @ 3-6 3-3

Bet is with a bookie that pays out on retirements as Oprandi looks to be struggling big time!

Excellent move.

Bit slow to change their odds and after Goerges served a love game at 3-2 had to jump on.

Was waiting for the right moment as she took tablets after the first set. Then again Goerges supposedly needed medical treatment too.

10/3 was huge. Oprandi available at 6/4 now.

Betting on this (and several other matches) being long matches so it's good to see them still playing. :)

Bad day yesterday but hopeful today!

I've bet on Karlovic/Federer, Isner/Lopez and Dolgopolov/Tomic being long matches.

So close and yet so far.
Still a decent first set for me though!

Managed to close positions on Federer/Karlovic somewhere near peak so feeling pretty smug,
If Isner/Lopez can get to 17-17 in the final set, I'll have a celebratory half of shandy tonight.

Well done on Almagro.

I hate Tomic, vile person.

Challenging mid point then 2 seconds later when Dolgo hits it out turning round saying "I didn't challenge I swear".

Dolgo would have been in the locker room 2 hours ago if his serve hadn't totally abandoned him since the first set.

He reminds me of Justin Smith.

Another vile character.

I hate Tomic, vile person.

Challenging mid point then 2 seconds later when Dolgo hits it out turning round saying "I didn't challenge I swear".

Dolgo would have been in the locker room 2 hours ago if his serve hadn't totally abandoned him since the first set.

wtf has Cristea broke a leg.

I had a big bet this morning on Errani @ 1.9 and now she is 1.68?

Dramatic swing. Shameless Brag I know but was just wondering if you knew any reason for it?

Cirstea might retire.
I hope we've all got our money with a non-voiding bookmaker.
I got mine with Coral so I'm all right. :)

Sabine Lisicki - grrrrrrrrr.
Had her -2.5 to win.
She played woefully to lose the first set 6-2 so I thought it was all over.
Recovered her game during the second set and served with match points at 5-1 in the third to bring home my bet.
Then decided to lose that game and win the next.

Women, eh?

Sorry if its a dodgy question, but are you ever tempted scrap the pre-game bets and just stick to in-play? You seem to have phenominal success on these ones!

As I lost one my biggest sports bets ever when Hewitt qualified for the 3rd round, I feel weird going in again heavily against him, but it honestly feels like having kings, running into aces, then picking up kings again and sticking it all in not worrying against aces.

I could be wrong of course, in which case I'm not gonna be happy I wrote this, but surely surely surely 3-0, covered by 3-1, Raonic vs Hewitt, is a lock tonight?

Raonic @ 9/4 v Hewitt (10 units) 1-2 in sets, *0-1  deuce

Surprised you went with this, Raonic is a ue machines today, looked like his arse collapsed in the 3rd set tb and his fitness looks suspect.

Yea, just felt if he screwed his head back on he could get into the match and allow me to trade back out for profit. Looks to have completely gone now which is a shame. Could still happen, we'll see. If I can try to get out I will.

If he takes that easy Volley at the net at *5-6 in the tb he goes on to win the matcch 3-1 but you could visibly see his Legs collapse(along with his arse) as he approached it.

Hewitt has looked shaky serving for sets, most notably v Stebe so there's still a small chance. Yeah right.

As I lost one my biggest sports bets ever when Hewitt qualified for the 3rd round, I feel weird going in again heavily against him, but it honestly feels like having kings, running into aces, then picking up kings again and sticking it all in not worrying against aces.

I could be wrong of course, in which case I'm not gonna be happy I wrote this, but surely surely surely 3-0, covered by 3-1, Raonic vs Hewitt, is a lock tonight?

Raonics body language after the 3rd was shocking, looked like he was going to cry.

Can't see much to get excited about in tonight's card.
Li/Clijsters and Woazniacki/Jankovic might be decent scraps.

Had a nice result on Northampton/Munster this afternoon so I'm looking to "invest" - any thoughts on tonight's matches?

Have you watched Benesova so far? Is she worth 4/5 @ +7.5 or 11/10 @ +6.5 games? Azarenka has looked awesome but Benesova has had some nice results.

Fancy Gasquet big time for tonight. Think it's likely to be a close match, but wouldn't be overly surprised to see him win in 3. He's far too big at 15/8. Ferrer's the consummate professional but he's really not that great on hard court surfaces. Think Gasquet is playing well enough to cause the upset.

Can't see anything that is likely to tempt me tonight, so likely to stay away from the other matches.

Can't decide whether the fact that after tonight you will have been able to guess the mens quarter finals pre tournament to an exact tee.

On the plus side the tournament from now should be awesome and have some great tennis.

On the negative side everyone loves a huge upset and good run from an underdog and it doesn't paint a good picture regarding the depth in the mens game.

After what I said, big upsets going down tonight.

Nishikori played a fantastically consistent match.

Truly amazing fight by Lleyton in that set, I take back what I said about him.

0-3 to 6-4 vs the world number one.

Apart from him being British and this being his first match of the year is there any specific reason you are going so strong against Bogdanovic when he has a 3-0 H2H record over Smyczek (all of them in straight sets)?

Bogdanovic didn't let you down!
Errani just come in nicely too.
Good start. :)

Despite knowing very little about men's tennis, I bet on Murray at 6.4 to win the championship before the start. I thought that I'd hedge if he got to the semi-finals and the big three were still in.
After winning 5 matches and not dropping a set since the first set of the championship he is now 6.6 on Betfair!
However, Djokovic can be got at 1/2 to beat him in the semi-final.
What price is Murray likely to be in the final against Federer (presumably) if he beats Djokovic?

6/4 ish

Fancy Fed super strong tonight. Backed him across the boards outright, -1.5 sets and 3-0

If anyone can find a link for me to watch Fed/Nadal after the game and Murray/Djokovic for the day after would much appreciate a pm please, won't be checking the thread to avoid spoilers, cheers.

Who do you bet with mostly?

365 and Stan James I'd say - depends, have quite a bit of money spread over various sites.

Should probably use betfair and should probably cut down the amount of sites I use, but I'm an amateur punter who doesn't know enough as yet! Using this year as a learning curve.

How do you make your selections?

Do you price up the games yourself, or just see a matchup and say, I think Virginia Wade will beat Sue Barker, what price can I get?

Price them up as best as I can. Use personal knowledge, what I've seen, previous prices, stats etc. Certainly do that for the bigger matches and atp tournaments, but for challenger stuff have to rely on my knowledge, personal opinion and other sources as the detail is somewhat lacking.

So you are prepared to back either player before you see the bookmakers prices?

Not 100% sure what you mean by that. If you mean would I be willing to back all my selections before I see the bookies prices, then yes I would. However I also use the prices as a guideline. I'm only really just starting to try to price things up so I like to ensure I'm fairly correct.

I'm saying before you see the bookmakers prices, are you prepared to bet either player in a match, or is there only one side you want to be with and you want to see what price they are before you decide wether to have a bet or not?

Not sure this is the answer you're looking for, but I'm prepared to bet on either player. Depends on what prices I make them/feel they should and then what prices I find.

Have you tried pricing up matches to 95% (or even 90%)?

It leads to alot less bets usually, but the ones you'll have will be very strong.

No, can't say I have. Trying my best but it's a learning curve for me...

Any resources you'd recommend?

Got that tip from Mark Coton's book about 20 years ago.

Worked like magic to start with, probably the one most important tip that cured me of being a mug punter.

What time is the Murray match on lads, TIA.

Will try and buy that and give it a read.

In your opinion then, given you see me make a fair few bets would you mark me out as a mug punter? Feel free to be as blunt as possible as I'm just doing my best to try and maximise my potential and welcome any criticism.

8.30am I believe.

I was just wondering if your gambling knowledge was as thorough as your tennis knowledge.

8.30am I believe.

The answer to that would be no! I'm working on it...

I think the thread has been a terrific read, you work hard at it (always a plus in my book), you seem to turn a nice little profit, & a few "betting" (as opposed to tennis) tips from the Camel can only help.

All good, & I wish you continued success.

I'm stunned by how well you are doing tbh.

When you starting posting and posted 14 selections in one day, I was like "who is this guesser, how is it ever going to be possible to turn a profit with all these selections, he just wants the thrill of the chase".

Then I think one day there was the quarter finals of 2 competitions and you made 8 bets!!!

I was always brought up on the foundations of just backing things you really fancy to high stakes, be very very very selective. But I guess taking lots of small edges can work.

So what I'm trying to say is how impressed I am with your results so far and also some of your reasoning. Obviously we have different opinions on a few matches but thats the way of the world.

Keep it up!

I'm stunned by how well you are doing tbh.

When you starting posting and posted 14 selections in one day, I was like "who is this guesser, how is it ever going to be possible to turn a profit with all these selections, he just wants the thrill of the chase".

Then I think one day there was the quarter finals of 2 competitions and you made 8 bets!!!

I was always brought up on the foundations of just backing things you really fancy to high stakes, be very very very selective. But I guess taking lots of small edges can work.

So what I'm trying to say is how impressed I am with your results so far and also some of your reasoning. Obviously we have different opinions on a few matches but thats the way of the world.

Keep it up!

Do you have a note of your in play p/l and pre match?
Have you been following all the games you have Bet in play as you seem to have done very well (except Hewitt :)) with this, would you say your better at reading how a game would turn out in play or beforehand? your bets seem to be bigger also during a Match.

What was the 10point in running bet all about at 3-1? If it was slight tilt/ chase don't worry we all been there but seemed so odd u went from 1pt at evens to an inrunning 10pt bet at 3-1 that was prob decent value but not like a massive rick or anything

Can't remember the game before u ask :)

That was a pretty good 24 hours!

C'mon Andy... In the second set the only person who could beat Murray was Murray... Novak not in it at the mo

Think that's a bit harsh on Murray, Djokovic wasn't that bad just Murray play some brillaint stuff, LETS DO THIS!!!!

Huge game from Murray there.

Yep, brilliant defence on that last point.

Murray Watch - Current Status = British.

What a match! really hope Murray wins but wouldnt be his biggest failure to get put out here; both playing great tennis

Its not easy tho is it... Margins so small between success and failure in these games

Its not easy tho is it... Margins so small between success and failure in these games

Agreed, but when has he ever been the right side of that margin in the last 4 of a major? Once at flushing meadow in a semi?

Lad lacks a bit of mental toughness, I am afraid

He's digging in and showing his mettle now!

Djok blew that

Which girlfriend do we prefer? Close battle, that

That was a massive game.

Murray played well, Djokovic is just too good.

Nadal will be happy with the 5-set battle though.

Murray is playing in the era of the two greatest players of all time

Murray=Timeform Squiggle

Laver, Sampras, Borg, McEnroe


Two of the greatest, not THE two greatest, I think

That's incredibly harsh.

Murray simply isn't as good at tennis as the other 3.

Seems a huge step up from 4th in the world to 3rd. 

Thought both girlfriends were lovely, lol at Boshi saying it's not even close, such a nit :D

In any other era he'd have multiple slam titles

Today he was superb, djok was also superb, it could've gone either way. Criticising either player is just ridic

In any other era he'd have multiple slam titles

Today he was superb, djok was also superb, it could've gone either way. Criticising either player is just ridic

I can't believe I'm saying this but Kin is rite, it's not close, Murrays doing well as most would be but Nole's bird is ridic.

In any other era he'd have multiple slam titles

Today he was superb, djok was also superb, it could've gone either way. Criticising either player is just ridic

Laver, Sampras, Borg, McEnroe


Two of the greatest, not THE two greatest, I think

At 5-5 in the 5th he had two break ploints. A real champion wins that game. Over 4-5 years Murray has only asmall minority of these matches in the last 4 of a major

Yes the other three are better, but a real real battler wins a few more than Murray has done.

ridic

so murray's shit because he lost that game

djok was 5-2 up in the final set and let murray back into it including losing his service to love. he's obv terrible too as a real champion would never do that

nadal must've been licking his lips watching that knowing that whoever won he was going to be up against a pretty shit player on sunday

Murray is an excellent player, but he'll never quite make a great I dont think, doent have that killer instinct in absolutely crucial moments, or least in a high enough % of them.  Unfortunate to live in this era of great tennis, and may sneak a major or two before his career is out but will also slightly off the level of the other 3 overall.

Murray is an excellent player, but he'll never quite make a great I dont think, doent have that killer instinct in absolutely crucial moments, or least in a high enough % of them.  Unfortunate to live in this era of great tennis, and may sneak a major or two before his career is out but will also slightly off the level of the other 3 overall.

And kin is 100% on the burds, it's not close

what I am saying, only said better.

Murray is an excellent player, but he'll never quite make a great I dont think, doent have that killer instinct in absolutely crucial moments, or least in a high enough % of them.  Unfortunate to live in this era of great tennis, and may sneak a major or two before his career is out but will also slightly off the level of the other 3 overall.

Just think your criticism of his performance today is very harsh and not accurate from today's performance only.

Murray didn't make a mistake in that game, Djokovic played out of his skin, his 1st serves where unbelievable when he need them most.

He had 3 btw  :P