blonde poker forum

Been contemplating doing this for a while because I want to get into the process of recording my daily betting processes and the psychological side of the business.  I have been a professional gambler of sorts for much of the past ten years although I normally have other income that is derived from providing odds compilation or advice to either bookmakers or, more recently, punters and syndicates.  I don't really want to discuss actual bet sizes in his but for the purposes of the diary I will pretend to be working off a £1000 bank.  My basic rules tend to be that no bet exceeds 5% of my bankroll and, realistically, a 5% bet doesn't happen very often.  Most bets are in the 1-2% region.  I bet on a bewildering array of sports and events through a combination of good sources and my own odds compilation.  For those sports which I do myself I price every event I intend to bet on and take my betting from there.  Where possible i will give an idea of what i consider to be the correct price for my selections and my reasons but I won't do this until i (or those that pay me) have got bets on and normally this will mean the price has gone.  Just to be clear I don't intend this to be a tipping thread as such and wouldn't advise anyone following me but hopefully it will give an idea of the ups and downs of someone that relies on his judgement of sport for his living.

To kick off I have two bets outstanding for this weekend.

£30 @ 4/6 Vettel to win Japanese GP
I missed the really juicy price of 4/5 on Vettel and that would have been close to a max.

£10 England -4 @ evens paddy power RWC
I know almost nothing about rugby union but I do know that the best judge in the game is the guy that does it for Sporting Index and he has set his market at 5-7 which, whilst they will be anticipating patriotic money, seems as though he is looking for sellers and I have years of profits to show from following him. 

1st

wiiiii

GL with the diary and the betting.

Out of interest, do you ever bet Basketball?  If so, what kind of market do you bet regularly and do you have the required knowledge of it to be a winning punter or do you have an "NBA guy" that you trust.

Awesome

oioiii, gl with this. Will be a good read

Any thoughts in the Niffle this week? I really cant find anything, but could be convinced :)

I might have between five and ten bets a year on the nba.  Usually revolving around Miami, Boston or Lakers because I watch a fair few of their games when I am in the States but I don't price it and something would have to really stand out.  Very occasionally I may read something which leads me to believe that a team is under or overrated and I will bet that close to blind until the market catches up.  College basketball tends to be the same but I absolutely have to be in the States to bet on college hoops otherwise I just don't watch/follow it at all except for the tournament.  A couple of years ago i was fairly close to an asian bookie that was getting some very good US bettors plays in the asian market before they hit in Vegas and that was profitable but has fallen off the radar now.

NFL - haven't finished my lines yet tbh although I am pretty sure i will be a bit lower on the KC@Indy total than the 39 available now.  Nothing else stands out though.

Probably going to be the best diary on blonde, expect mine on a Friday night, but I'm guna behave tonight :P

This 

^^^

Do u only bet on sports? Or do you trade  in stocks?

Always enoyed reading your posts they are normally very well constructed and thought out. Got a feeling there won't be too many degen stories though, as you seem a bit too switched on, that aside I have always been genuinely interested how the pros do it.

What advice would you give to someone who dreams of being able to punt for a living? And what sort of bankroll do you think someone would need to start out to be able to bet for a living and maintain a comfortable lifestyle, say to have an equivalent of 40K a year lifestyle.

Also, have you been to Ocho Rios yourself? Couples hotel is immense!!

GL with all punting, life and the diary.

Great stuff, I don't really bet but I will enjoy this

+ 1

Will provide some supplementary info now and then when 'I'm on' as well

Pretty sure this will be a must read.  GL with it.

Couple of racing bets:

£5 e/w Kaldoun Kingdom @ 16/1 405 York
£10 e/w Sentry Duty @ 14/1 350 Newmarket
£5 Lay of Dux Scholar @ 3.85 535 Nmkt
£5 Lay of Bubble Chic @ 5.0 535 Nmkt

£30 Mumbai Indians @ 1.76 to beat Somerset in Champions League (in running)

I would be about 4/7 here.  Mumbai on target for about 160-170 and that would be the best score on this track so far in the CLT20 and the Indians bat quite deep.  Will trade this game in running though so may be a fair few more bets.

added another £10 on the Indians here @ Evens.  Could go horribly wrong but still favourites for me and Pollard etc can all hit it out of the ground.

£15 Perennial @ 4/1 500 Nmkt

160 should be enough- 4-6 prob a bet rather than lay but want Somerset to win personally

Had another £10 Perennial @ 6.4 Betfair.  I thought 10/3 was a fair price so got to bet the drift.

The last race at Newmarket is a great example of why you always have to remain alert in betting markets.  I had decided this morning that Perennial might be a decent bet and it was (despite coming second) but because of my focus on Perennial I missed the fact that the favourite Astrology had been backed into 11/8 and i had it in my market at 11/4 so the best bet rather than a press up on Perennial would have been a lay of the favourite but I totally missed the gamble.

Yeah at the turaround I was 1.60 Mumbai......think the market has probably overeacted to the wicket of Trego though but seems about right now.  Irrespective i am pretty sure the winner of this will be 6/4+ in the final and value at it.

535 Nmkt
£10 e/w Questioning @ Sp
£10 e/w Sri Putra @ sp

£25 under 38 points in RL grand final @ 5/6 Hills

It is absolutely hammering it down there and conditions should be tough in a fairly close game anyway.  34 each of two would seem fair

I am fairly close to a maximum bet on Mumbai already but the price at the moment just seems a gift so I have to press up and make it a maximum.  i think they should be 2/9 now so £10 Mumbai @ 1.39.

keith the camel often refers to betting value (took arsenal at 5/1 vs man U for eg)

is this something you practice or is it solely looking for bets to win

how often do you lay you bets in game to partially get out rather then lose the lot

(excue my ignorance if these questions arent very good,  but im really not a gambler - im an occasional punter on grand national and gold cup type)

ha and i posted the above question before this comment -

I am purely a value punter.  It is all about what price I think something should be in relation to the price available and to be honest i think pretty much every successful punter is the same with the possible exception of some racing punters with exceptional inside info.    It is also vital to know the price something should be and the value you have to be able to decide on correct bet sizing.

I do lay sometimes to close out positions but only if I think the price I am laying at is either value or the correct price and I want to reduce my variance.

is it more difficult to find value with the likes of betfair creating almost "perfect markets" on premier league football etc?

£20 Lay Mumbai @ 1.79.  Butler and Kieswetter definitely have the ability to turn this around quickly.

Hard lines Kaldoun Kingdom 2nd @ 16s . How do you make your selections? Form?? Jockey booking? Trainer recent form?

It is a great question.  You don't get as many markets that are obviously wrong as you did when i first started as a bookie 14 years ago.  In those days you would often see things like Man Utd being the same price to win a Carling Cup tie as they would be in the same game in the league.  I remember when Stan james first started betting on corners in live football matches they would just take the mid point of the spread with Sporting Index and bet 10/11 each of two when the correct price is more like 4/6, 11/10 and I bet under in literally every game for about 18 months for £200 before they figured it out and i know i wasn't alone.  Nowadays if I make a premier league football match more than 15% value I go back and double and triple check my price because it normally means i have missed something.  The flip side of course is that there are more markets, bookies and liquidity since Betfair and the Asian bookies are available to everyone.  By the end of today i will have had something in the region of 15-20 bets and that is a quiet Saturday.  Ten years ago without Betfair that would have been maybe a third of that.  None of the bets on the cricket would have been possible for example.  

I get three or four decent cards from winning punters and then I do a tissue (betting forecast) on races that look to have decent shape or where I have an interest in a horse myself.  I also take a lot of low hanging fruit like betting in bad ew races with bookies too where I can.

Thoughts on Betfair?

great response, looking forward to keeping up with this diary!

Probably similar to yours with the exception that I still use them because a) I have significant losses on my current account and it would take a few years before i was paying premium charge at my current win rate and b) my style of betting means I am not that likely to ever be paying it.  For those purely selfish reasons I still use it and probably will continue to whilst there is the requisite liquidity there.  I am also at a slight disadvantage in that I had burnt a lot of bookies account prior to the arrival of Betfair so I can't just switch to bookies easily.  All that said it never ceases to amaze me how the Betfair management have managed to take a truly amazing, game changing business that was only half way to its potential and completely ruin it.

£15 Leeds @ 2.32 to win RL Grand Final. - Leeds have momentum and Saints have a lot of injuries now and short on bench.

Thats probably it for today.  Turnover of £238 and a loss of £61.55. Bankroll = £938.45  Fairly standard stuff really.  I have still got one eye on the college football where I like Virginia Tech but I really want -7 or at least 2.14 -7.5 so there may be another bet but more likely i will take a couple of hours off and watch the Kell Brook fight and then the college football before doing a bit more work on tomorrows events.  May post some bets for tomorrow later.

nice call also the biggest factor is the Saints just cant beat us :)

Early bet for the final of the Champions League trophy.

£25 Bangalore @ 4/5 VC/Fred

As I suggested earlier in thread to Dubai i expected this to be priced in the region of Bangalore 1/2 and was interested in backing Mumbai.  I thought a fair price for the game was 4/6 Bangalore 6/4 Mumbai possibly 8/11, 11/8 so am amazed to see 4/5 available about Bangalore.  The two teams met on this pitch in the IPL and Bangalore won by 43 runs and the top of their order is top class in Gayle, Kohli and Dilshan.  Bangalore were massively impressive in their last two games chasing down 200+ totals but it was on an easier pitch than this and they didn't face anyone like Malinga in those games but unlike Somerset all of these batsman have faced him before and whilst Gayle does have the ability to throw his wicket away sometimes I am willing to take the risk at this price.  Another bet which I can't get on as 365 don't entertain me but which looks superb value is 10/11 Bangalore to have more sixes in the game.  In the IPL game between the two they got eight against four for Mumbai and Gayle or kohli could legitimately win that bet on their own.  Ladbrokes are 8/13 and that looks about right.

£30 6.5 pt teaser KC +7.5, Jax +7.5 5/6

Teasers are avilable with most of the US sportsbooks (I did this with Olympic/Thegreek) and are mathematically profitable if going through two key numbers.  I especially like this as both games have low totals.  You used to be able to get 10/11 or even evens on these bets with some books but the reduction in books in that market have affected that a bit which is a shame as it is the smart and clever ones like Olympic and Pinnacle that are left.

£22 under 39 KC@Indy @ 10/11 Tote

Was going to wait on most of my game bets but this looks to be moving downwards so grabbed it now.

£10 Argentina +28 Evens Hills/Ladbrokes

Been mulling this bet for ages largely because as I alluded to yesterday I am not much of a RU judge but looking through the results in the games so far I just don't understand how NZ are 28 point faves.  I could understand a handicap of 20 or so but the Argies have played England and Scotland and only conceded one try in both games.  Now admittedly neither of these teams are that good but New Zealand haven't exactly murdered the better teams they have played and have conceded 10 or more points in every game they have played.  Also it is a fairly obvious game for 'public' money.  Would probably have more if I had much confidence or was backed up by a good judge but I seem to be alone.

£10 Kobayashi to finish top 6 Japanese GP @ 9/2
£5 Kobayashi to finish on podium @ 150/1

Really struggling with exactly this grand prix is going to pan out but positions 6-10 on the grid are going to have an advantage with tyres but they are just a long way behind.  I see Hamilton making a move from the start here but fancy Kobayashi to go well on fresh tyres and maybe one less stop at his home GP.  Tough one though.  Certainly don't love my position on Vettel anymore despite pole.

Yikes. When do you sleep? 3-6??

Ha - I sleep when there is no sport!!!

£15 Alonso @ 10/1 in running Betfair.

anyone thats bet Australia needs to go and buy a lottery ticket. Worst referring ever, most one sided defeat ever. New Zealand only need to turn up. 4-5 LOL should be 1-20 even without Carter

£15 Lay Alonso @ 8/1.

Fancy NZ to cover and bet them to win by 41-50 @6s

just to let you know corals shops have the most sixes bet at Even money for Bangalore  but the tie is a runner too...

Moresixes than fours by Mumbai, doubt very much rcb will get 9  chasing such a low total.

Yeah it will definitely be a struggle but on the positive side the bet on RCB should win from here especially now they have got two of Malingas overs out of the way.

no nfl mug?

Bit late to the party but £15 Titans +3.5 1.92 Betfair.  One that I can't get on that looks interesting is the 19/5 Any Titans defensive TD with Skybet.  other than that I will stick with the two bets I had above and maybe do something in running.

Famous last words.......very poor from RCB so far.

£20 Buffalo over 56.5 2.03 Pinny.

£22 over 19.5 2nd half points Indy game  Pinnacle.

Addai has gone off so going to be very difficult for Indy to try and control the clock in the way they normally would.

Just caught up with this but v.interesting so far. Thanks for sharing.

Ugly-ish day with a loss of £107 so far for a weekend p&l of -£168.55.

I am a bit disappointed with my NFL betting today so far.  The teaser was the only winner but I have to keep on top of trends in the sports that I bet on and to only have noticed that only 14 of 64 NFL games had finished with less than 37 points so far this year made my bet on unders in the Indy game possibly a bad one.  Also not sure about the Tennesse game in retrospect.  The game opened Pitt-6 earlier in the week and to be jumping on the bandwagon at +3.5 late in Sunday is ill disciplined.  Unless I get very late news then the only bets we should be having late on a Sunday are those that are opposing moves and trying to price the games late on a Friday and a saturday isn't really good enough.  For three/four months a year the NFL screws up my bodyclock for half the week with me staying up until 430-5am to watch the late games and bet them so to then not put the effort to price them up early enough to take proper advantage is pretty stupid.  Anyway losing nearly 17% of the bankroll isn't anything like a disaster and can change with a handful of bets.  Not much happening this midweek but Englands tour of India starts on Friday which could throw up some interesting opportunities.

I really hate betting on road favourites especially in nationally televised games in the NFL but I just can't see past Green Bay tonight.  I think they should be in the region of 7/7.5 point favourites and Atlanta are going to have to throw the ball which might not go that well given McClure is out.

£22 Green Bay -5.5 10/11.

really like the falcon side

Whats your thinking???

£15 packers in running @ 2.3

Hi Red,
Loving the diary so far!!
A question if you dont mind

As a pro punter using this £1000 bank as a thoeretical figure, over the weekend you staked upwards of 20% of the roll. Is this a regular occurance and is this ok for what you do?

When you get a minute could you price these up what you think for me plz as not sure a bookie would have the market:

Newcastle to finish ahead of each of the following:

Arsenal
Spurs
Liverpool
Chelsea

Cheers.

Hi Red.

Looks like a great diary.

A friend of mine used to do very similar to this and was very successful at it so I find it particularly interesting.

A question if you don't mind things getting a bit personal and it's along similar lines to Rich's question.

Over the weekend you lost what looks to me like a significant chunk of your roll. Based on your OP you will now decrease your max bets down to 5% of this new figure.

My question is what happens if you lose the roll? Have you got a separate 'life roll' that you would dip in to intending to pay yourself back?

What are your real life circumstances?

Are you single / living with parents?

Are you married + kids?

Sorry to pry but I find it interesting to see how people with different lifestyles cope with the swings of gambling and how your perception of risk has to change dependant on their circumstances.

Feel free to tell me to gtfo if you intended this diary to be purely about your punts :)

It would normally be more than that and, theoretically, the optimal thing to do is have as much of it as you can in play but obviously I need to also pay attention to my other rules which are no bet should be more than 5% of bankroll and staking is proportionate to value available.  Also I won't bet unless I have roughly 5% of value or more.  That said on a busy Saturday I can often stake 50% of my bank in a day and am perfectly comfortable with that so long as the bets are there.  It is a pretty simple equation in so far as that the more I bet the more I win.

omg Ray, are your turning all pleno on us? :D

Funny you should mention Pleno  ;D

My real life circumstances are pretty complicated.  I am married, no kids but my wife is in the States and I spend about 50-60% of my time there as my green card application can't be processed until the middle of next year.  The rest of the time I split between my parents in Cumbria and hotels/friends in London.  This is fairly recent and has only been the case for the last year or so really.  Before that I led a slightly less nomadic existence and lived in either Birmingham, London, Leeds, Antigua, Kuala Lumpur or Gibraltar for the previous 12 years affter leaving college.  Mainly working for bookies as a trading director or for betting syndicates with lengthy periods where I just bet on my own account.

 Your point about perception to risk on changing circumstances is an interesting and important one.  The first time I took the plunge and bet for a living was in 2001 when I was single.  Frankly, the thought terriffied me and I remember the very first day I started I woke up at 430am with my mind racing.  Over the next 7-8 months I worked fairly hard and did okay but I was fairly cavalier with regard to treating it as a job and I took long periods of time off and if one of my regular working friends had the day off and fancied going to the punb for the day i can't ever remember saying no.  Whilst i made enough to live and went racing at least four days a week I wasn't really taking it seriously.  Over the next couple of years I met my wife in Antigua and since then every time I have relied on betting for my living I have taken it a lot more seriously but it wasn't until I reached my thirties that I really spent time working on my staking and approach to risk to the point where I am as disciplined as i am now.  Milligan mentioned earlier in the thread that there won't be as many tales of degeneracy in this thread and he is right but, like everyone, I have been through that to a degree and was certainly guilty of having bets for an interest but since I met Lisa I have realised that it doesn't just affect me anymore and I need to be a bit more responsible and treat it like a business.  I am 36 now and, since we have decided to move to the States (mainly for family reasons), I have realised that gambling and bookmaking is pretty much all I can do to any real level and starting again in another business isn't really an option unless I really want to start at the bottom of the tree earning £20k a year so i have a duty to myself and my family to do this right.  To be honest it is a pretty sobering reality.  A bit like some of the young poker players on here I pretty much coasted through my twenties and was making money and doing alright but when you get to your mid thirties and realise that all of a suddden you are too old to get a 'proper' job even if you wanted to and the only real salaried profession you have ever known (bookmaking) is largely illegal and the domain of organised crime in the country you are intending to move to it is a bit of a wake up call!!!!

have i missed something??   :dontask:

but if you were serious about them bets Newcastle would almost certainly have to finish in the top 4 for any of them to happen, Newcastle are currently 50/1 with ladbrokes for that to happen

On the question of whether I should be reducing a maximum bet to 5% of £830 or whatever my bankroll was at the beginning of the week then theoretically I should be.  In reality the swings are such that in reality i tend to increase or reduce stakes when my bankroll changes by 20% and normally only at the end of the week unless I have a really bad day.  As much as I don't like losing 10-15% of my bankroll  over the course of a couple of days in reality it is a fairly standard swing and doesn't bother me that much.  I tend to have at least one Saturday a year where I lose something like 25 out of 30 bets and wipe out a fair proportion of my roll.  I also tend to have a day where I do the opposite.  One thing i have learnt over the years is that however bad you imagine it can get it gets much worse than that!!!!  Those are the periods where you have to be mentally strong and that tends to be what separates the pros from the rest.

You haven't missed anything  ;)

Let me think about these.  My gut reaction is that the 'right' price is somewhere in the region of 10/1 on average but gut instinct tends to be wrong in match bets liek these so let me think about the maths.

£22 Bears under 21 points @ 10/11 Hills.

The 5/6 under 21.5 with Sportingbet is better value i think but I can't get on with them.

£15 Calvin Johnson to score first TD tonight @ 5/1

Stafford has 11 TD throws this year and 8 of them are to Johnson.  He is definitely the guy he is going to be looking to throw to and whilst he has been 7/1+ in recent weeks I would say that the 3/1 with Ladbrokes is closer to the mark.

Thanks for the response. Some really interesting stuff.

I can't believe how closely your life echos my friend's tbh.

He's also 36 and moved to Canada to be with his wife.

He attempted to get involved with bookies as you did but failed so ended up doing his own thing. Maybe you got the job he was after. The time lines are certainly similar.

His downfall was the bookies blocking or limiting his bets.

If he saw some value and wanted to bet £500 on it but the bookies would only take £50 he'd just spite not bet.

I could never understand this especially as he was a pro. If it's value it's value no matter how much you put on.

Have you ever done similar? Basically thought if you can't get on a certain amount it's just not worth the click of the mouse?

£15 under 2.5 goals Oldham - MK Dons @ 1.95 Betfair

Pretty much totally a weather bet.  Apparently it is pissing it down and the pitch is very wet

I tend to take what is offered especially if it is in a shop but I am pretty shy and certainly not that assertive so in person I tend to just take what is given and politely says Thanks rather than kick up a fuss.  To be honest that is probably the best strategy anyway.  Once a bet is referred to trading the shop manager has no control anyway and if you are nice and polite then in the future you might get a couple through without getting referred.  Online it depends.  If it is a particularly dirty bet there is a level where it isn't worth getting your account marked for £50 or whatever.  Getting on is the hardest part about the business to be honest.  Of the 19 bookies listed on Oddschecker I have had accounts closed or restricted to the point they might as well be closed by eleven and of those that i can still bet with I am only not restricted by BWIN and that is largely because I never really bother with them because I know I won't get much.  Betfair has been a godsend as have Pinnacle and the asian bookies but the best value still lies with the normal firms because they are pretty clueless and it is a constasnt battle to get on.  I use shops and other people a lot.

Here at Punters' Paradise we're people that know people. And we hear things. One of the things we've heard is that Ladbrokes are planning an exchange.

Seen this redarmi?

It is a rumour I have heard loads of times over the years.  Ladbrokes are certainly arrogant enough to give it a go but I don't see how it will be successful.  I remember Bwin trying something similar about five years ago and I had a few mates that worked there (was called betbull) and it was a pretty big flop.

Interesting diary - a bunch of unrelated questions:

Have you considered using a bet broker before? Shady but not miles more so than using other peoples' accounts, assuming of course you land a reliable one.

What's your plan when you move to the USA permanently? I'm guessing that's going to make things a lot harder for you?

Pretty personal question and obv. you don't need to answer, but when do you foresee yourself retiring? Do you make enough that you think it's a possibility in the next decade or so or do you see yourself going until you're 65? It's something I've thought about myself and I'm early 20s - do you still enjoy what you do after 10yrs+ (iirc) of doing it, and do you see yourself doing it forever?

Are you over/under the standard UK work week of 37.5hrs? It sounds like you are basically betting around the clock at all times, unless you're out?

com goal to fuck you in the Oldham game. Then at least Kuqi missed an open goal to bring some justice to proceedings.

Can't believe im watching it, so depressing.

Betbroker - I do use commission agents mainly through others but I am not sure that the new breed of firms like Betbrokers (who went bust) and BetButler are feasible in the long run to be honest and I was very close to losing a lump with Betbrokers.

USA - I use vpn's a bit and have plans in place for someone over here to put on for me.  The same person already puts on a fair bit of my business and we share some accounts in others names.

Retirement is long way off.  There are no pension plans in this game and besides I love what I do.  Maybe one day I will cut down on the sports I cover.  As i alluded to yesterday betting on the NFL is tough on my bodyclock when I am in the UK and by about mid November football becomes fairly relentless but on the whole I can't imagine what else I would do with my time.  My old man has just retired and spends his whole time watching sport now.  I am lucky enough to not have to retire to do that.  in terms of working hours I definitely do more than 40 hours a week.  More like 60-70 hours a week although it tends to be massively more when i am in UK and less when I am in States as I don't really have to feel guilty about how much i work when I am here.

I'm not watching it.....you have to have some standards mate ;-)

poker cliffs? (pleno1)

Absolutely loving this Diary, Sir, keep it up, please.

Loved this, too, as it relates as much to poker as to betting, & so many seem to struggle at the slightest sign of a headwind......it (losing here & there) really seems to be torture for so many poor souls!

"....Those are the periods where you have to be mentally strong and that tends to be what separates the pros from the rest....."

As to Ladbrokes, & the comments above, I saw this today......deffo one of my worst ever share selections, & I've had 4,000+ of the damn things ince the early eighties, back in the days when Uncle Cyril was in charge. Oh to have him back now......

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2011/oct/10/ladbrokes-richard-glynn-plan-a

Started playing a long time ago when limit on Paradise was one of the only options more out of a fascination for the game and characters rather than any real idea that I knew what I was doing.  Was pretty awful for a long time and played well above my natural level for a long time because the amounts I was used to betting on sports made it seem meaningless if I played for less.  Over the years I have played on and off online and then a little bit live too.  I started taking it a bit more seriously when i first started looking on here and then when i moved to Miami and didn't have much to do during the day last summer (no football and couldn't watch the racing) I started going to the Hard Rock there everyday and playing $1-2NL and did very well to the point that it was providing me with a steady-ish income of a couple of thousand a month on top of what sports betting I was doing.  To be honest the standard is pretty awful and it doesn't take much to beat the games there where a standard pre flop would be six players limping in.  Other than that during the summer I started multi-tabling lower stakes tourneys on Stars and did okay and finally signed up to training sites and got myself HE manager but it is still a hobby really albeit one that provides some income.  I have no illusions about my ability but I can be quite obsessive about it and want to be as good as I can be.  I suppose the biggest advance I have made is to understand what level I can beat and sticking to it.  Ego doesn't come into it anymore.

and thoughts on poker staking?

In what sense?  In terms of a potentially profitable pursuit i think it has a lot of potential.  I do some bits and pieces and it has been pretty much break even but it is massively high variance.  In terms of myself I have taken staking occasionally when I have taken shots in terms of my poker bankroll and I think it is useful and if I was going to pursue playing more myself i would consider being backed but I think you need to be a bit more committed than I am to do justice to backers.

Fantastic punt, great £750 pick up for you

The loss of Julius Peppers is massive for Bears D.  Fancy Detroit a bit here now but think i will wait for a HT line.  Detroit -3 would be a bet at the moment.

I pass at -6 2.10 especially with Peppers back.

do you change at all (pychologically) when you are playing backed rather than on your own money? Also how does things change in regards to tilt after running bad on somebody elses money

Just caught up on this and certainly enjoyed it.

I am trying a very small stakes bit of betting on Betfair myself (and losing *lol*) so find the bets you have and the way you pick them very interesting. An impressive amount of knowledge needed to be successful at this.

I haven't played backed enough to really comment but i think there is more pressure.  When I have done work for betting syndicates and private punters i certainly work harder and take on less risk and can see how this would be the same with poker.  I would be less likely to reshove with K6 or something if I was backed which is probably a negative.  That would probably change if I was backed on a regular basis though and had results.

Finding it hard to believe your a pro gambler but good look trying

Pretty poorly thought out (and spelt) statement. What is it that you find hard to believe?

He´s clearly a very bright guy and sounds like a really decent guy from his posts as well. Better to just be grateful for the insight and opprtunity to learn. He bets in an almost identical fashion (as you´d expect) to The Camel and there was no reason to doubt his credentials.

I don't get the point in statements like this? unless you two are mates and it is banter?

Very speculative 4 e/w Fine kingdom  betfair sp 200 Newc

I've had an equally speculative (but less potential reward) stab at Vamoose.  Obv a redic race to punt properly.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.  I suppose the proof will be in the pudding.

£30 Dancing Maite @ 7/1 400 Newcastle

The ground is pretty much bottomless so it is a bit of a lottery but this horse seems suited by soft ground with form figures of 4413 on G/s or worse and sometimes seems a bit tapped for toe against better rivals which the ground may help with.  Pretty gutted that two have come out of this as 16 runner hcaps are obviously optimal e/w material but will have to go win only now.  I also quite fancy the rag of the lot Foreign Rhythm but want to do a bit more work on that one and should get a better price on the exchanges closer to the race anyway.

How do you work out your stakes? Kelly Criterion?

I use Kelly but I have a factor based upon how confident I am on my pricing in a sport/league.  The sports/leagues I am most confident on I bet half kelly down to a fifth of Kelly on some sports but with the proviso that I don't bet more than 5% of bank.  I also tend to round down and, if I am honest, I guess a bit on some sports too.  A good example would be the horses today.  I honestly expected Fine Kingdom to be a 20-1 shot.  If I bet half Kelly I should be having 5.875% of my bank on that at 66/1 well I would not be even close to comfortable with that and frankly even the 2.35% of bank at 66/1 which i should bet at a fifth Kelly seems pretty stupid so I ended up having 0.4% of bank e/w which is probably not enough but was within my comfort level.  I have had close to maximum bets at very big prices in the past but I would have to be very sure of my price.  The 400 at Newcastle I am much more confident of my price in (as I should be in a hcap over a maiden I suppose) and am happy to be betting somewhere in the region of a third of Kelly.  I know my approach isn't ideal for the maths purists but it tends to work for me.

Plumped for £5 e/w Foreign Rhythm @ 30 win and 6.4 place.

Looks like we were drawn on the wrong side there so going to get involved in some low drawn horses in the second division at 430

£15 e/w Supreme Spirit @ 11/1
£10 e/w Red Roar @ 14/1

Obviously expect both of these to go off a fair bit shorter.

LOL, GTFO

Actually the two bets in the 430 at Newcastle bring up some interesting points on staking.  To stake properly/effectively you need to have a good idea of what the 'correct' price is for your selection.  I hadn't bothered to price the 430 because I didn't really see an angle and I thought my selection in the 400 was well drawn because I expected the pace to be with those drawn high.  When i watched the race it became fairly clear that there was a big advantage to being drawn low and that the prices on those horses would go fairly quickly so I just checked that the two horses drawn lowest in the 430 had some kind of form and would go on soft ground and pretty much plucked a stake out of the air.  I am fairly confident I have value but I honestly have no idea how much value I have and the best test will be in what price the horses go off.

Chompy - whats you take on the new whip rules.  I have always thought it was just about the most boring subject in racing but after listening to Sylvester De Souza just say that he thought the fave in the 410 would have won if he could have hit it a few more times I am wondering how much we can rely on pre whip rule form now?  Thinking of leaving it alone for a couple of weeks.....

1st and 2nd drawn 14 and 12....that went well!!!!

This is filthy but £20 e/w Violets Boys @ 3/1 450 Huntingdon

Actually I ended up getting returned £5 e/w @ 3/1 the rest at SP on the above.  They are very hard to get on at prices.

£10 e/w Sory/ @ 10/1 530 Newcastle

I almost never bet on International football and I am definitely a very big loser on these and every international weekend makes me feel like i should go to gamblers anonymous to stop me betting and I was successful this weekend just gone but tonight I can't resist betting Armenia.  They are a very good side and need to win to go through so even though I will hate myself in the morning I have had:

£10 Armenia @ 9/2 and £15 Armenia +3/4 @ 2.06

I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals
I will not bet on internationals

£25 Don Broadhurst to win Prizefighter @ 6/1.

These are a bit of a lottery and the draw is massively important but favourites don't have a great record and I like Broadhurst.  He was a big favourite to beat the fave Lee Haskins in their British title fight and was a very good amateur which is effectively what this format is.   Hopefully he gets Usman Ahmed in the first round but I would fancy him to beat any of these and he isn't bigger than a 5/4 shot against any of these imo and realstically he is only a dog to Haskins/Lyons and two years(and two fights) ago he would have been a 1/2 fave to beat any of these.

I think the Armenia bet was a good one. A lot of people here in Ireland were nervous before the game and although I didn't see it as I was in work, I believe we were pretty lucky.

Still loving the diary!!

A couple more Q's if you dont mind???

Since being a pro punter have you ever lost your B/R?  If so what did you do to get it back?

Lets assume your real B/R is £50k and you had a really bad downswing and lost it, do you have a reserve B/R to start again or are you literally ALL IN?

Do you draw a monthly wage and let your B/R grow and then apply your % according to the new starting B/R?

What has been your biggest individual win and loss as a punter?

TIA

Rich

I have never done my bankroll in it total.  The way I stake makes it pretty difficult to be honest although I have had occasions where my staking has gone down to levels which can make expenses hard to meet.  As I mentioned earlier in the thread I do have some other income sources but it is fairly rare that they are anything approaching a living wage on a monthly basis but I suppose if neccesary i could step that up to raise a new bankroll.  My bankroll as it stands at the moment isn't anywhere near as big as it has been in the past but that is more to do with lifestyle leaks in the past few years.  Strangely, despite my bankroll fluctuating a fair bit over the years, my betting income has always been fairly constant.  That probably answers the monthly wage question.  I am not that disciplined about separating bankroll and life money and they tend to intermingle which means that my bankroll and bets only really grow when i earn over a certain amount.  Realistically that has meant it hasn't grown in size in any menaningful fashion for a few years now but on the flip side I have been able to maintain a lifestyle that involves a fair bit of travel.  One thing that I have learnt over the years is that I am the kind of person that fits their lifestyle to the amount of money they are earning....that means that when I have been winning very good money I hae also spent it.  The best post I have ever read on here was from Dubai here: http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=50836.msg1336253#msg1336253 and whilst I have never won and done as much money as I imagine Dave has it rings a lot of bells right down to the spending a massive amount of my bankroll one night in Stringfellows and not even enjoying it that much. 

The biggest bets, wins and losses all came in a about a three or four year period from 2000-2005.  I won £42k when the Patriots beat the Panthers in the Superbowl.  At the time I placed the bet I was running bookmaking for a sportsbook in Antigua called WWTS which was one of the biggest US facing online sportsbooks at the time.  i had been hired to turn around their bookmaking and had increased the margin from low 4%'s to 5.6% that year and, coupled with an increase in turnover, we were having the best year that company ever had ($25m gross profit I think) and I was on target for a max bonus which was about a years salary so I was punting fairly big with the backup of very good salary and the certainty of a very decent bonus coming at the end of the year.  I was getting a couple fo quid betting on Betfair at the time too and after a couple of weeks of the NFL season I priced up the Superbowl futures and thought New England should have been 4/1 shots and was amazed that they were available at, I think, 14/1 so had a monkey straight away and basically just kept topping it up until my total bet was aboutn £4k at just over 10/1 average.  In December of that year I had a fairly bad run and dropped a fair bit but worse was to come when just after Xmas the CEO of the firm asked me to go to lunch with him and told me that despite making $10m more than they had the previous year they had decided I wasn't the man to take them forward and they were not renewing my contract.  I would be paid the statutory part of my bonus but not the discretionary element which was about 30% of it.  All of a sudden this ante post bet took on a new importance.  I had just met the girl that is now my wife at the time and this was all a fairly devastating blow for me at the time given that she was a Jamaican national and had basically no chance of a long term visa to the UK at the time.  I asked her if she would be willing to come to the UK and she said she was willing to give up her job (a fairly decent one) but how would we be able to do it?  Eventually we decided that the best thing all around was going to be for her to fulfil her long standing ambition to go to college and she would do it in the UK and we would get her a visa that way but the flipside to that is that a three year university course for a non UK national is expensive......in fact it costs about £40k just for fees over a three year period....where would I be able to find money like that with no job and only the prospect of my bonus to give me money to live on while I tried to find a job????  As you can imagine that ante post voucher took on an even bigger importance at that point.  At this point New England were 7/2 favourites and looked like world beaters but every game was just about the most tense experience of my life if I am honest.  Eventually they reached the Superbowl and, at the time, I had a dodgy DirecTV sat and just as I sat down to watch the game the NFL decided in their wisdom that this might be a good time to block all the illegal signals so with the game kicking off I had to head out and try and find a place to watch the game and by the time Lisa's friend had given me the keys to her place and we settled down to watch Vinateri miss a 31 yard field goal to give New England the lead.  It was possibly the tensest game i have ever watched but eventually the Pats won with by a field goal.  My wife, largely oblivious to the importance of the occasion, fell asleep at some point in the first quarter and only awoke when i was celebrating to ask if we could go home now!!!!

Anyway that was a ridiculously long answer to a fairly simple question but that was my biggest ever win and not only in financial terms.

£15 Lee Haskins to win Prizefighter @ 7/2 Coral

As I mentioned in my bet on Broadhurst last night I don't particularly fancy Haskins for this.  He has a very weird style that is a bit like a crap Naseem Hamed (hard to explain but you will understand if you watch him) that isn't neccesarily suited to the 3 round format but this is just a standout price that seems wrong.  He deserves to be favourite and I had him in at 3/1 which I am fairly confident about as a price and the fact thay pretty much every other bookie makes him 9/4-5/2 backs that up.  As much as i don't fancy him i have to back him at this price.

Wow. Amazing read!!

Have loads of questions but will hold back for the moment.

Great reply thx very much!!

Biggest single bet accepted in a UK bookies?

Smallest single bet turned down in a UK bookies?

on par with eso krals diary with this post. great stuff

In a betting shop I managed to get £600 on a 16-1 shot with ladbrokes once and £500 e/w France in the last Rugby world cup but I have never really asked for more.  I was surprised to get both of those bets tbh but it is more about what you bet.  When i was a student I worked for Ladbrokes in Chinatwon in London and we took £50k over the counter on a couple of World Cup matches so they will take a bet to be fair but I know their trading limits so I don't really ask for anything I think is going to mark me up.

Smallest bet refused - Betfred consistently refuses £20 e/w singles on 'bad' e/w races in certain shops.  Online I have had £2 bets refused!!!!

Not sure if you'll have the answer but since you worked in a bookies, but do you know if it's true certain brick and mortar bookies will have different implied limits depending on location? Supposedly Chinatown + Leicester Sq area take higher bets than elsewhere due to the type of people that go there...no idea if that's just hear say though?

They do have different limits in different shops but they´re much more interested in individuals, if you are a regular in a shop and a winner they have pretty detailed notes on you and records of every bet you strike. (This is based on experience from working at Coral when I was a student >10 years ago).

I only ever worked in Mayfair/Soho for Ladbrokes but I have peeked behind the counter at Ladbrokes in other places and the 'trading principles' are the same.  That said when i worked in Chinatown we would often take bets and phone them through later but from punters we knew would be accepted.  What I would say is if you regularly go into a betting shop anywhere outside of Central London and are regularly placing bets of £100+ you will very quickly be tagged  by the manager and if your business is anything like sharp they will be referring you soon enough because a winning punter at that level can impact upon a shops margin more than you would think and their supervisors/area managers will be on their back soon asking why margins are down.  In Central London a £100 punter doesn't stand out especially during racing.  They are still large in the general scheme of things but the cashier isn't going to be surprised.  This is the case more in certain shops than others.  If I was trying to land a touch on a horse I owned (those were the days!!!!) then I would start in Leicester Square and work my way through all the shops in Chinatown and through Soho to Mayfair.  i can't talk for other firms but in terms of Ladbrokes the best shops would be those in Chinatown, Dover Street and Curzon Street, Mayfair.  

Very much this.

Also "He has a very weird style that is a bit like a crap Naseem Hamed (hard to explain but you will understand if you watch him)" - makes perfect sense!

£10 Cunning Clarets @ 11/2 lads 325 Wetherby

I really wanted to back Glorybe in this race too but I have missed all the fancy prices and 11/2 is pretty close to the bone.

just like to say redarmi brilliant read , really gonna enjoy this one, quick question for you , are you basically telling us every bet you strike on here  or are you betting on more sports, horses ect but keeping them to yourslef as your betting / punting more heavily on these bets  or are people paying you to join a service ?

I have posted every bet I have had since I started.  As I said at the start the stakes aren't correct in terms of actual cash.  My bankroll obviously isn't a grand but it works to show in principle what I am doing.  I also don't really want a bookie being able to read this and shut accounts I am using by being able to trace exact bets to me.  I am not offering a service and I have intention of doing so.  I dipped my toe in that once and, frankly, it wasn't very enjoyable at all and certainly not worth the hassle.  I am, however, getting paid to provide my views on certain football leagues so I might have to be a bit circumspect about exactly what I post on that front.

Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

+1

yeah i completely understand , but thanks for any views on horses and especially on sports events i love punting on these and hate watching them when i aint got a bet on lol, thanks also for cunning clarets i got £20 at 9/2  so what a great start gonna try use my small bankroll now to try follow your bets , who knows you may be the man to get me to my goal of 2k to take the kids to disneyland florida :)

com. No pressure Stu, just some little kiddies hopes and dreams resting on your shoulders.

£15 Tranmere HT-FT @ 3/1 Lads JP Trophy tonight.

On Monday morning I was all set to hit the shops and have as much as I could get on Tranmere as possible because the Accrington manager had talked in the press about allowing Tranmere to score first because this is a replayed game because the first game was abandoned with Tranmere winning 2-1 when Tom Bender got injured.  But the layers aren't quite as naive as they used to be and nobody priced it up until yesterday by which time Jimmy Bell (Stanleys asst mgr)  had said it wasn't happening and had never been seriously considered.  Despite all that I think the fact that they have come out and even mentioned it will make Accrington at the very least reluctant to put it all in tonight.  If they do gift Tranmere a goal then the right way to bet it is HT-FT because it will come early.  I think the likelier scenario is that they maybe rest a couple of players and obviously it is nothing like a big bet and it could range anywhere from being one of the best bets I have ever had to being negative expectation but I think on balance it is worth a small interest.

Nothing worse than binking and then the race being declared void.

wow, fyl Red

Didn't see the race but apparently the right decision.  Meh!


It is obviously up to you what you do with your money and if you decide to go for it then obviously good luck and I am a tryer ;-)  That said a couple of points.  This genuinely isn't a tipping thread.  My motives are part selfish, in that I want to record what I do, and partly because I have taken a lot from Blonde and not given much back especially with regards to my poker game.  A lot of the bets that I post will be done after the price has gone because I obviously have to get on first and I also swap info/bets with others.  Betting something I have bet at 11/2 at 9/2 is at best marginal.  If you can get the prices then they are normally a decent bet but the fact of the matter is that the market is a very good judge so the ones you miss may well be the best bets.  On the whole beating the market is a big part of this game.  I would imagine that my horse bets in particular would be a losing proposition at SP.  Occasionally i will post what price I think something is and anything 5%+ bigger than that should be profitable but it is sometimes very small margins we are dealing with.

Ladbrokes are paying out apparently......wiiiiiiiiiiiii

VC Have paid out as well  weeee

John Coleman just interviewed on SSN and i think this might just happen.  Have had another £15 @ 3/1.

^^^ This sort of stuff is golden, gl, will keep an eye out for the result

Are you worried that the bets themselves might give you away? (e.g. if every bet an account made had been posted in this thread it might be suspicious) Do you take any steps to limit that? (e.g. a mug bet every so often)

I certainly have it on my mind and if something happens which suggests I am losing outs quicker than normal then I will have to think about it a bit more but I literally have two accounts in my own name (with Uk bookies) these days and use a combination of commission agents, friends and shops so I would be surprised if it was that easy to trace and most of those accounts are also used for bets for others.

Cracking draw for Broadhurst.  I make him about a 4/1 shot now......actually even that is too big maybe 3/1.

Cracking goal for tranmere as well

£15 Farrag to beat Haskins @ 5/1.....Paddys

LOL price....he should be half that price at least...but their limits save them!!!!

Managed to get another £15 @ 5/1 on Betfair on Farrag

No doubt he will be tired but I was thinking 2/5 Haskins 5/2 Farrag.

Excellent job today and a welcome bit of run good too after the Armenia debacle (still can´t believe that o.g). I´m admiring your work.

Winning £86.91 since last update.

Bankroll stands at £918.36.  If anyone spots any ricketts in my maths let me know as I am doing it in my head and quickly and tallying against my normal betting accounts but I am not averse to making errors.  Bear in mind I pay roughly 3% commision on Betfair wins.

Thought we might be getting some wages for a while there with Broadhurst but Haskins was clearly the class act and at least I had the discipline to take the silly price about a man I didn't fancy.

Erm...after reading the posts about getting accounts banned, would it not be a good idea to change your forum sig which appears to have your name in it?

Yeah Tighty mentioned that earlier too.

£10 Australia to beat South Africa T20  @ Evens Stan James

Pretty marginal stuff to be honest this one but I think Australia just about deserve to be faves with ABV injured and Kallis and Steyn rested.  If I can I might even trade out of this for a small profit but will almost certainly do this in running so decent starting point.

£10 e/w Chris Kirk @ 66/1 Corals (5 places)

I don't bet much golf at this time of year and only glance at the tournaments normally but Chris Kirk stands out here for me.  Bit gutted to have missed the same price with the extra place with Ladbrokes. 

Great diary. Now I won't know whether to read this one first or Eso Kral's.

Quick question if you don't mind:

From your theoretical £1,000 BR, how much would you look to increase it by/take out in a week/month/year, and do you have an average past result?

Defo this one as you will find more winners here!!!  ;)
Thx for the Tranmere tip.

Was going to ask a similar Q to Percival on this today

Obv we dont know your B/R but lets use the £1000 at the end of the year what would you expect it to be sat at ie what % profit?

Also if someone followed your tips blindly and didnt get on at the best prices as you will have those will the said punter be a small loser or break even punter?

PM sent also
Thx

I have had an ROI on an annual basis since I started betting of between -2% and 15%.  The lower ends of the scale have tended to be when I have been specialising in Asian handicaps and lower margin stuff but with higher volumes and often for other people as well as myself.  On the kind of business mix I currently have I would expect to make between 5% and 10% on turnover on about 100 bets a week so if we say an average bet of £20 then that is a weekly profit of between £100-£200.  Everything being equal it is probably at the lower end of that estimate and the amount you make on an annual basis is quite dependent upon the order your results come in because if you start well and your bankroll goes up immediately then so do your stakes and vice versa.  I also have periods when my number of bets go down fairly significantly.  If I had to be tied to a number though I would be fairly confident that on the basis of a £1k bankroll I could triple it on an annual basis.

In terms Rich's question.  It is a tough one.  I honestly believe that sports betting is 10% selection, 20% bankroll management and 70% getting the prices.  It is literally ten years since I have been able to get the absolute top of the market prices ie. a full range of accounts with the ability to get on with firms like Sportingbet, Skybet, Boyles, Bet365, Stan James.  Off the top of my head there are a couple of bets where I have put up a price and know that there is better available in the market but I kinda know it is a waste of effort to try and get on so I just don't bother.  I would imagine you could probably just about make a profit betting a price below but at the prices that the selections go off I would be fairly surprised.  As a general measure (a kind of sports betting equivalent of the all in EV measure on HE manager if you like) I expect to beat the midpoint price on Betfair at the off of a race/event on about 75-80% of my bets with maybe another 5-10% being roughly at that price and only a handful of drifters so it would be fairly hard to win and I would imagine you would show a small-ish loss if you were price insensitive.  If you were just a regular punter betting them you would have access to a lot of offers/bonuses/free bets that i almost never get though which could easily add a couple of percentage points to ROI.

It amazes me that there are so many "mistakes" in odds compiling.  Is your value usually found in individual errors in one book or widespread errors eg most compilers missing a major factor?

A combination really.  Some of the bets come from simple mistakes of a single odds compiler.  The bet yesterday on Haskins was a good example of that.  Coral were 7/2, Every other firm was 9/4-2/1.  There are some bets which come from systematic problems with the system like bad e/w races and some of the NFL teasers.  The multiple bets on unders in NFL games in regions where there is bad weather would be another example of this kind of bet.  Some bets come from having the ability to incorporate information better or quicker than markets.  Examples of that would be some of the bets on horses made on the draw at Newcastle the other day (wrongly as it turned out).  Some come from superior information.  I am definitely not as strong on this front as some others.  Some comes from simple probability modelling I have done.  A couple of years ago the big bookies were pretty poor on this front but they are much, much stronger now and I would expect my understanding of probability to present pretty much no opps within a couple of years. 

are you scared by the thought that in 10 years or less all bookies will have the same prices?

Not really sure how to best answer this but I will give it a go. 

About five years ago I used to be a big believer in efficient market hypothesis and that the increased flow of money into Betfair, Pinnacle and Asia would lead to 'unbeatable' markets and to a certain degree betting markets have become much more difficult but a couple of things have made me reassess my view towards EMH.  Firstly, the financial crisis and whole subprime thing has pretty much proved beyond pretty much all doubt that even financial markets with billions of dollars invested in them can be inefficient so i don't really need to worry about the £500k traded on the 300 at Newton Abbott.  Secondly, everything I see with the main market (betfair) suggests that it isn't really that efficient.  For sure it becomes more efficient the more liquid it becomes but it still overreacts to hype and doesn't react quickly or sufficiently to a range of factors.  Also some of the most successful gamblers of all time have effectively operated in markets where there isn't much market difference.  I am thinking of the HK racing syndicates, Billy Walters in the States and Tony Bloom in Asia in particular.

In terms of all bookies offering the same price I don't ever really see it happening.  To a degree it moved that way when Betfair became so important and no bookie wanted to be a bigger price than them.  To a degree I think we are starting to move in the opposite direction to that now.

it might take a little longer than 10 years but be in no doubt that prices will homogenize over the industry. It will become a war of marketing budgets and technology that delivers the product in time, brand establishment now for the bigger names is all important. Seeing some bookies like blue sq throw away their profile now by a lack of investemnet in marketing is criminal.

Trading depts will become a thing of the past.

I don't neccesarily disagree but I am curious as to why you think that it will happen in the next ten years when we have had legal bookmaking in this country for 50 years and longer on course?

I'd guess the main factor would be technology, information can travel disseminate quicker than before. However, 10 years seems like a pretty short timespan for the whole landscape of bookmaking to change. Prices in the markets I bet in are already getting closer together but will there ever be enough incentive to be completely the same as each other? As ACE2M suggests, it then becomes a shootout of marketing budgets, isn't there then incentive for the less-big firms to outprice the bigger ones? (esp if over-rounds stay fairly high - for prices to be homogenous AND for there to be an incentive to no change there has to be a low over round I'd have thought)

Idea on standard deviation with regards to variance for punting fulltime and different sport- biggest downswings (assume a medium bet= 2buyns, small=1, big=3)

I do not think you will get the whole industry on the same prices.

Greed will see that it never happens.

Majors are fighting big time for market share and if it means giving an extra point here and there they will.

Someone will always break ranks for extra share.

Great question.  I am not a maths genius by any stretch of the imagination but I have tried to figure this out in the past and this is the best I came up with:

On the basis of 100 bets a week with an expected long term theoretical margin of 5% and reassessing bankroll after every week I would expect to lose 50% of my starting bankroll over a three month period slightly less that 1% of the time (0.75% to be precise).  I would expect to lose about 9% of the time over a three month period and would expect to make >25% on my bankroll about 88% of the time.  I am not sure of the best way to mathematically express variance but to give you an idea over 1200 bets I would expect to lose half of my bankroll less than 1% of the time and increase it ten fold less than 1% of the time.  Obviously compounding has a big impact on the occasions where it runs up and in practise it might be hard to get the bets on and also I think I based this on 2% bank level staking because I am not smart enough to run monte carlo simulations using variable staking but it could have been 5% level staking as the simulations are on an old laptop and obviously makes a fair difference.  Because of the compounding effect luck plays a pretty big part and even with a margin between 4% and 5% overall return on investment can range from 100% to 600%.

Yep also we assume perfect knowledge which isn't neccesarily the case.  I have it on fairly good authority that some of the big bookies have their IP addresses blocked by Betfair making it hard for them to get an idea where the market is.  I knw there are plenty of ways around this but I thought it was very interesting.  It may be just a grudge with one of the big bookies but there is some evidence in their prices that they are struggling with it a bit.

Odds compilers are only humans and it does not matter how smart you think you are errors will always occur

Thats why we have the likes of redarmi

Go for it.

Just an addendum to my answer to Dubais question.  That is based on an average price of selection of about 11/10 so obviously with a fair bit of bigger priced bets in my armoury these days the swings would be expected to be bigger.

£10 e/w Golden Jubilee @ 9/2 330 Brighton

£10 Ad Vitam @ 6.0 betfair 400 Brighton
£15 Cheylesmore @ 7.4 430 Brighton

Not sure I like the betting patterns on this 430.......looks like Veitch may be up to something but I can't quite figure it out.  Very weird but I just don't trust the stable.

its Tigers Tale in the 5:50 you wan't to worry about, all sorts of crazy money getting dumped on that one!

What a clever lad VEITCH

I bet you would like his army of foot soldiers

Could you expand on this for those of us that would find an explanation fascinating but really have no clue about the subject?

My gut feeling is that they have tried to send the market the wrong way and are going to lump on somethign late but it is very weird.  Half an hour before the race there was about 10k waiting to back Cheylesmore and then it suddenly was taken down and drifted out to 10-1.  Everyone knows Williams is PV's stable so was it a false lead?  26k of a total of 76k matched on Cheylesmore which is a massive amount for a 10/1 shot.  I know some smart guys like the horse but they aren't info punters.

Obiter Dicta maybe the 'right' horse???

Or Aviso??

EASY

LOL WTF do i know.....Cheylesmore hacks up at nearly double the price I bet!!!!

Get In  

When the price drifts out from the one you've taken do you press up the bet as its now even bigger than your "value" odds?

Normally I would although more so on sport and football than racing.  I do think you should factor price moves into your prices though because markets tend to move for a reason and sometimes you don't know what that is so I tend to make an adjustment to my price too.  Sometimes if I just don't understand what is going on I leave it....I did once do an analysis of my asian handicap bets which were against moves and my roi was smaller but they were still profitable.

I'm gona field this one too coz its an interesting one.

In the past this was definitely the +ev thing to do but nowadays the market (largely coz of the exchanges and technological advances) is too wise to make it worthwhile in the long term. Now I think the opposite in a way is almost worth doing, when you fancy a horse and its price is contracting to get further and further involved if you still think its somewhere near reasonable value.

In Championship Football I'll still do it because I'll believe I'm right and the market is wrong at times (for example when Derby drifted out from 2.6 to 3.8 at home a few weeks ago which I thought was massively wrong with the market over-reacting on a huge scale to Millwall's new signings and general ability) just because you can have the confidence that you have pretty much all the information available to you that you need to have to judge the market correctly.

In racing you often don't know things like how the horse is behaving at the track, if all is well with the horse/stable at home and many other factors.

layed £15 at Evens SA to get 140 or More runs Betfair

had another £15 under 140.5 runs @ Evens cricketbetlive

..........just before those two fours.....fml

Nice, thank you :) 

£40 South Africa @ 2.10 Betfair

I don't really want to get involved further in this cricket match but I think SA are superb value at 2.40 or so here.  145 or so is probably an okay score on this pitch especially if they can get David Warner out early.

and their he goes, all the way down to 1.8 now

FMP

Wow. Richard Hughes hands in license after picking up ban at Kempton tonight.

£15 Button to win the Korean GP @ 19/5 Betfair

Fairly simple reasoning.  From this season only a handful of drivers can win realsitically and they certainly represent 95% of probabilities.  To my mind they are Vettel, Button, Alonso and Hamilton.  My assessment of the likliehood of each winning the race given Vettels likely lesser motivation is Vettel 40%, Button 25%, Alonso 15%, Hamilton 15% (he seems to be gone at the game.....sad).  I may be slightly underestimating Webber but he is showing nothing either.  If Vettel underperforms in qualifying I might top this up.  I think given car differences etc Button has shown himself to be the best driver in the game this year which is really nice to see after many commentators talked down his championship year.

Pretty pissed off that the cricket isn't being shown and listening to Bumble and Nick Knight commentate is tilting me so might just leave that alone.  I had a slight preference for England pre match at 6/5 but impossible to bet on without seeing what the ball is doing etc.

Couple of early racing bets:

£10 Focail Eile @ 5/1 445 Haydock
£10 Torres Del Paine @ 13/2 550 Wolv

Those of you that have the Racing Post will see that these are Eddie Fremantles tips.  This isn't a coincidence.  When I first bet for a living it was pre betfair days and I used to go racing everyday and every day I would get on the train and there was almost always this big tall guy there with a bag with raceform form books in it and from setting off to getting to wherever we were going his nose would never be out of the formbook and when we got to the track he would be there in the betting ring and everytime he had a bet the bookies would rub the price off, normally they were rags (outsiders) and as a 33/1 shot went clear there would be one lone figure in the stands shouting it home, often with his hand in the air.  That big tall man was Eddie 'the shoe' Fremantle and I eventually learnt that he used to be 'Man on the Spot' at the Sporting Life and since that had shut he had gone out on his own.  If I found myself near him in the ring I wouold jot down in my racing post which horse he had backed or, at least, which one the bookies had rubbed off when he bet (do bookies even rub prices off anymore??? isn't it all electronic now?) and on my way home I would try and figure out what he had seen in the horse.  For a while I found it mystifying and then the pieces began to fall into place.  One day I was meeting a mate by the parade ring and there was Eddie dilligently watching the horses walking around and making notes so over time I decided to do that too and more pieces fell into place.  I never really spoke to Eddie although towards the end of my time going racing daily we would occasionally nod at each other on the train and a couple of years later we were introduced by a mutual friend and my mate asked what he fancied for the day and he gave one horse.  We backed it.  It won.....at 14/1.  For a while he used to tip at the minor exchange WBX and if you had a bet in a week or month or something you could see his views.  He was excellent and i followed him pretty much everyday and won a decent amount and then he started appearing on RUK and in the Racing Post.  It is a very hard job to win as a tipster for the post.  You don't know the prices before you bet and he is probably break even at best but if I can get a price i think will beat SP I still bet them.  He certainly owes me nothing financially and what I learnt from observing him all those years has been invaluable.  I only wish I wasn't so shy in person and had felt able to tell him what a big influence he had been.  Who knows maybe he will read this???

£15 e/w Priors Gold @ 7/1 VC

Decent shape for e/w in a lot of the races at Cheltenham today and am looking at possibly having a multiple but this one looks decent on its own.

Have to say I've never had much interest in sports betting beyond the mug punting I do and tip following for sweats. Between this and Eso's diaries I've suddenly garnered an interest in learning a little more about the workings of sports betting and maybe trying to make myself a little more savvy in my betting practices (won't be hard :D)


Great read and I think it's probably neck and neck between yourself and Richard now for the best/ most interesting diaries on Blonde at present  ;hattip;

I've done your 3 horses alongside one that was given to me by a guy on another forum in a £1 e/w lucky 15 and a £2.5 e/w acca so gl us :)

Red  Pwns me atm I think i am gonna have to go on a degen spell and report it to get my readers back or just come to Vegas with you!!  ;)

I think that you could possibly be a calming influence on myself and Alex so not a bad idea... We just seem to enable each other in the worst possible way :D

Eddie The Shoe. Does he really make the game pay? I know it's an old argument but why are these boys on TV rather than puntering? I know they pick up around £400 for a shift but is a financial thing or just this need that everyone in the country seems to have to want to appear on the telly?

I was once asked to appear on the old ATR but have never wanted to do it. Still waiting for that invite on to CH865 mind...

FYP

I don't know him at all but I would imagine he is a winning punter still.  I am fairly sure he was when I was going racing.  I know Dave Nevison and Alan Potts a lot better and they have both taken money for punditry in the past (Nev more so than Alan) and they have both been winning punters over the years.  I would imgine Nev is probably struggling a bit now though but I haven't seen him or spoken to him for a couple of years that is just the impression I get.  I think as a punter certainty of income can be a massive draw especially when you bet at the end of the market Eddie normally does.  I thought the payment for a RUK shift was £200 but even at £400 it isn't that much and I would imagine they all need other income than that they get from a shift on RUK and a column in the Post.  He lives in SW London and is married with a couple of kids so it can't be cheap.  I do know that when he did the Observer column a mutual friend mentioned that he said he genuinely enjoyed the writing which might be a factor I suppose.  I would pay for his views and there aren't many that appear in print or on TV that i could say that about.

Do you know much of Tony Ansell?

Yes.  He was a consultant to us when i worked at Victor Chandler and I was a client of his advisory service for a couple of years about 8-9 years ago.  Interesting character but slightly, erm, unusual.  He is an agraphobic who at one point hadn't been outside the house for years.  He is also incredibly arrogant but, to be fair, with some justification as he is very intelligent.  He is almost certainly a decent sized winner and the tips from his service move the market.  About ten years ago I was working for a firm in Leeds called Betabet and we were a fairly small online business so didn't have any staff working overnight so when we left at night we set the limits on the markets we had up very low and for a particular cricket match they were something like £50 but there was a slight bug that they could then have something like £2 bets as many as they liked (so we didn't discourage the multiple punters I think was the reasoning).  Anyway I came in early the next morning and my screen was full of something like 750 £2 bets on a cricket match that had been placed from something like 2am in the morning to 430am and they were from Ansell.  Not sure what that says about him....I suppose it is somewhere between slightly obssessive and incredibly driven.  May I ask why you were interested in him?

So tempted by England in this ODI.  Aussies got 350 on this pitch.  England surely better than Australia.  Just lost a wicket as I typed.  I am a backer at 3.75 in new market.

Just follow him on Twitter and seems a very interesting character.

Also got a free 6 month subscription to his site + emails etc and just came across as very very clever and just someone you want to hear/speak/talk about anything gambling related

£20 England @ 4.2.

Pretty certain the likes of Fremantle, Nevison and Luck are winning punters. They just like the money for old rope. They seem very shrewd on racing uk and make it a joy to watch with their fantastic pre race summaries of each horse before the race, no matter how shit the race is.

Tony Ansell seems an absolute bellend on his twitter. All he ever does is talk about how good he is. He might be good but none of the others do this.

Someone started this hilarious fake account taking the piss out of him: http://twitter.com/#!/prorambler47. Ansell's response was just to block anyone that followed this hilare account.

prorambler47 tony pantsell
TONY PANTSELL TIPPING RECENT WINNERS 200/1 Greece E2004, 40/1 James Buster Douglas, 100/1 Signorinetta 1908 Derby. Tipped the treble too $$$
31 Aug Favorite Retweet Reply

I follow him on Twitter too although I think his arrogance comes through on there. but he is undeniably good at what he does and he works very hard too.  I suppose if I had been stuck in the same house for 20 years surrounded only by people that work for you and getting the lot betting I would become arrogant too.  He needs to get married......my missus soon reminds me of my inadequacies when i get too big for my boots ;-)

i will reply about what we were discussing as regards the bookmakers all coming into line.

have you ever read this blog? http://www.cubone.co.uk/

some solid gold in there.

Do you think betfred should pay Curley out on his coup?

Used to occasionally read his posts on BF forum but not seen then blog.  Will take a look.

I don't think bookies in general realise how much the idea of these coups do for their business in terms of PR.  To try and welsh on them is shortsighted imo.  That said I am no great fan of Curley.  He is pretty much bent and certainly not good for the game but he also very nearly pulled off a coup that day that I would have dismissed as impossible in this day and age.  Fred Done, on the other hand, no words can adequately describe my loathing for this man and his pathetic, pissy little firm.  How the government could possibly sell him the Tote is totally beyond me.  Today there is a modest rollover on the Tote jackpot and there are four meetings for him to choose from.  Cheltenham is a competitive card and the first real exciting jumps meeting of the year.  Haydock has some decent handicaps for a late season flat meeting and even Redcar has a couple of old Northen circuit favourites running.  The jackpot is at Wolverhampton.  One day i will record a spoof of that incredibly annoying Betfred advert that is on TV where he says "He's handy 147 I'll lay 2-1" and put it up on youtube.

Apologies rant over.

Some bets on the Championship before the shrewd money starts moving in Leeds and North Yorkshire

£10 Bristol City @ 13/8
£20 Derby @ 13/5
£15 Watford @ 5/4
£20 Barnsley @ 3/1

Actually decided to hold off on Bristol City for now.  Bloom seems to be in love with Peterborough so will wait and see what happenin Asia in the morning.  Might get bigger.

Weight got the better of Priors Gold, profit anyway. wd

Just seen prices for the 325 at Kelso and have to get involved early.  My prices weren't quite as severe as Corals but....

£30 Far More Serious @ 13/2
£10 Captain Americo @ 10/1

Totally unconnected to this diary but the news that the Stone Roses are reforming has made my day.

Do you ever bet on Politics? Obama to win the US election is pretty incred value at evs. I can´t get my head round this price at all, I can´t have it worse than a 2/5 shot. The Republicans are >2/1 to even come up with a serious candidate (I know that hasn´t always stopped them in the past). The right wing media are losing their grip over the masses, looks like a gift.

Also probably going to go with this anyway but very much welcome your input. Taking on Frankel, surely it would be smart to be on Immortal Verse and Excelebration E/W tomorrow. 6/1 both of them has to be a winning proposition.

Politics - yes.  In fact out of everything I bet on a UK general election would the thing I would be most confident of winning on.  My degree is in politics and economics and a very long time ago I used to do some work as a researcher to John Hutton who was a cabinet minister so it combines my interests almost perfectly.  On Obama I think evens is a great price and if it was tomorrow I would make it a maximum bet.  I backed him at 1/20 last time which I thought was a great price but there are better uses for my bankroll in the period between now and an election and I tend not to do much long terms stuff.  I don't really agree with your estimate of 2/5 but I wouldn't be that confident of a price at this point.  I hope you are right that right wing press is losing their grip on the public but I would never overestimate the intelligence of the US public or the manipulative skills of the neocons.

I will probably back both of the horses you mentioned e/w but I fear we are playing for second and god knows racing could do with that boost right now.  I just hope they Queally doesn't get a ban for hitting Frankel....that would disastrous.

Really?  Not heard this!

Although the initial excitement is tempered by the fact that Ian Brown couldn't sing live!

My parents wouldn't let me go to Spike island when i was 14/15.....wanted another chance to see them ever since.  of course I am sure it will be nothing like the same but can't help being a little bit excited.  One of my favourite bands ever and I am sure that makes me seem quite old to the kidz!!!

No interest in dogs?

Used to be more so than I am now.  I think to be a good judge of dog racing you have to go a bit and it isn't really feasible for me anymore.  When I was a student I went to one of Hackney, Catford, Wimbledon, Wembley or the Stow almost every night and used to love it.  I lived five minutes walk from Catford but when they shut there and Hackney I stopped going as regularly however I do occasionally get bits and pieces come across my radar and funnily enough this has happened today and it has just occurred to me that you might be the ideal person to ask some advice about but I would rather do it off forum for now so will drop you a PM.

I only saw them on the Second Coming tour, but he was comically out of tune on the night we saw him.  I was still fab to be there though.

I also went to Glastonbury in 95 (I think) when they were supposed to be headlining, but they split up just before then and were replaced by Pulp at the last minute, who were probably the highlight of the festival that year.

Funnily enough, Barnsley have changed their intro music this season and now come out to a mixture of the Rocky soundtrack and I Am The Resurrection, which is bizarre, but it's growing on me and takes me back to my youth!

The first album is still the best album of all time, IMO, and is unlikely to get topped.

Stone Roses. All four original members in the reform, too

really. any links plz?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/3873222/Stone-Roses-to-brannounce-tour.html

Great news about Stone Roses, really looking forward to hearing what they come up with

Mani said it would never happen. Great news tho and made my day too....still think its gotta be odds on to not happen (but thats not a tip)

fyp

arguably the greatest band ever. don't really care if he's out of tune tbh

I'd definitely want to go see them live, incred band.

Fairly busy morning for me and plenty to still do

£20 Notts Forest @ 13/8
£10 Torquay @ 7/5
£10 Plymouth @ 9/2
£15 under 2.5 goals Dag/Plymouth
£20 Peterhead @ 13/8

£15 Simply Ned 135 Kelso @ 7/2
£10 e/w Immortal Verse @ 7/1 Lads 1/4 odds place

£10 Swansea +1/2 1.84

Gonna allow myself a one-a-decade mug bet on the footie for japes.

£10 Yankee on the following teams to score 4+ this arvo

Man City 7/2
MK Dons 6/1
Southend 8/1
AFC Wimbledon 8/1

Bookmakers PR people tilt the hell out of me.  Kate Miller of Hills and David Stevens of Corals  just on SSN saying it will be a bloodbath and they will lose fortunes if Frankel wins.  Firstly, the horse is long odds on.  I can't see Granny backing it.  Secondly, it has drifted from a general 1/3 to 2/5 and Corals racing compiler in particular is in love with the horse and has been shortest price all the time.  Either their traders are complete imbeciles or the horse is, at worst, a winner on their books or a small loser at worst.

Some amazing decisions from Ferguson in team selection today.  Not sure what to make of it.  I liked United but think I have to leave it alone now.

£20 e/w Welbeck to score first @ 9/1 ladbrokes

Bookmakers PRs are ridiculously tilting. Just switch them off. WTF are VC up to in recent times, esp the magnificent signing of Vicky Haigh?

"If there's snow on Xmas Day, it will cost the industry millions!"

Probably the most accurate statement they manage every year.

got to consider all the accas it will be in

Don't hold your breath, specialist skillz needed.

VC rival Betfair for the worst savaging of a potentially amazing brand in recent years.

I remember when I went for an interview with them when i was working for Ladbrokes.  I went down to their offices in Linhope Street and it was a Georgian terrace and there was none of the gaudy branding of a Ladbrokes, Hills or a Corals there was a simple, classy brass plague on the wall.  I went up to the reception area and felt massively underdressed in my Next suit.  Everyone I saw walking around had on cufflinks and monogramed shirts etc.  It was all just amazingly classy.  I was interviewed at first by the manager of the Gibraltar office who then was suitably enough impressed to take me upstairs to see Victor.  If the other offices had seemed impressive then Victors office blew me away.  There was a painting by Lucien Freud on the wall and formbooks in a bookcase and Victor who I had always admired from afar on my visits to racecourses just seemed impossibly glamourous and impressive.  Even though I wanted the job more than anything else I had ever wanted I was also just satisfied to have met Victor and spoken to him.  Before that day i had wanted to be a poltical lobbyist or researcher and had worked in the House of Commons briefly and Victor was far more impressive than anyone I had met there.  From that day onwards all I really wanted to do was work in this industry and for Victor in particular.  I must have impressed that day because they hired me and it was off to Gibraltar and for a year or so 15-20 of us layed some of the biggest bets in the world to a mixture of the shrewd and incredibly rich men.  We were laying huge bets on football to the Asian bookies and big racing bets to owners, bookies and some real whales.  It was amazing and for a group of guys largely under 30 we did amazingly well too.  That summer was the 1998 world cup and was when i first met Tony Bloom who never had the personal charm or presence of Victor but over time I grew to respect even more.  

I will write more on this later but 2pm-5pm saturday is about as busy as it gets for me so better concentrate.....

Is it Victor (and Fred and Paddy) that appear in the tv adverts for their firms?

£40 Villa +1.5 1.94 SBO

What did they put in the water in Manchester last night?

It is Victor and Fred.  Not sure about Paddy.  I have never met him and he doesn't actually own the firm as such anymore as they are public.

£20 Balotelli @ 4/1 to score first.

£10 Yaya Toure to score first 10-1 Lads
£5 Adam johnson to score first @ 9/1 lads

£15 QPR under 2.5 1.94 sbo
£15 MC/Villa under 2.75 1.96 sbo
£25 Ipswich +3/4 1.77 sbo

Thanks managers of the premiership.....best days racing of the year and I haven't seen a minute of it yet.

Gareth Barry is big value for FG today. He's on the pens.

Thanks.  Been trying to figure that out.

£8 barry fgs @ 18/1 Lads

erm, Balotelli?

edit: is there a source for Barry being on pens?

After the shambles against LA Galaxy???  really???

well, thats if previous heirachy holds up, balotelli is 2nd in line for them.

gl us.

£15 e/w Dancing Rain @ 11/2 next race Ascot

It is fair to say I am absolutely knackered........thank god it is 3pm

oi oi, well done

Really enjoyed reading this, more please!

Racing fans......at what price is Frankel a bet here?  i am thinking 1/2 and t might get there

As you can imagine i'm on everything bar the fav to varying degrees each way, perfect race for it.

Therefore expect frankel to walk it and the rest somehow not to finish.

I can't get out to bet anything else each way but i wouldn't put anyone off any other horse each way.

Dick turpin@28s from last night is my best result, was gutted i missed the 33s but now it's 14s i feel reasonably happy with what i got on it.

That said I am a backer of Frankel of 1/2.  I think books these days understand the fact that theyb are going to lay a lot of horses each way against it so are a bit reluctant to let the big jollies get too short.  I doubt Frankel to win is a -EV play tbh which means that the win portion of the others is pretty big -EV but the place elements probably out run that.  Also I think this is one of those cases where Frankels chances of placing are not reflected in its place price.....it is a much bigger to place than 1/10 because something going wrong is likliest reason for not winnign I think.  does that make sense?

Really don't mind taking a small loss on that race, great performance, what a horse.

Yep all makes sense.

£15 e/w Border Flora @ 8/1 540 Kelso

Favourite def too short in this race.  Going to fire a couple of bullets:

£10 Snow fairy @12.0
£5 Green Destiny @ 25.0
£10 Midday @ 10.5

Hayley Turner is a really good addition to the BBC team.  She is really interesting to listen to and has the kind of insight that you never get from Carson.

....although to be fair she is like a group horse in a seller in that company

Yeah when carson says things like 'it's value at any price cos i think it will win' i switch the sound off.

wiiiiiiiiii just realised I forgot to put this on.  I run good.

This is such a massive own goal from racing.  Soumillon fined £54k and banned for his ride on the winner of the Champions Stakes.  Possibly the best moment for the best hoerse ever tomorrow and he might not even be the headline.    Just ridiculous.

redarmi - a question about laying off

I backed <2.5 rangers st mirren at 2.58 - on the assumption that the intial bet was ev+ <lol> - would you lay off at a goaless half time?  The question I'm really driving at is, do in running players stick robotically to pre-race assumptions or do they adjust, so they think in my example that StM are playing better than expected and will continue to do so?

Thats a really great question.  Going to grab something to eat and watch a bit of this Barnsley game but will answer later when i can do it justice.

A man of taste!

As I mentioned earlier in the thread you shouold only really lay off if you consider it to be either neutral or positive expectation at the time that you lay off.  In this case it is impossible to say whether it was agood idea to lay off without an idea of the price.  Price is everything.  i didn't look at this game but in the average second half I would expect there to be no goals about 28% of the time and if there were no goals in the first half slightly more than that.  I don't want to get too technical but football largely follows a poisson distribution and the main area where it falls down is that teams don't actually score independently and the reason for this is that when a game is a draw, and, in particular, a goaless draw they don't neccesarily go all out to win.  Both teams may be willing to settle for a draw, not in the fixed match sense, but just in a general manner.  This interdependence increases as the game goes on so is generally more rpresented in the price.  All that said I would certainly make that adjustment less in this game because there isn't much chance of Rangers settling for a draw although St Mirren would be more likely to than the average team.

Moving onto your second point.  In my opinon markets overadjust to what they are seeing.  The most recent information that you have (in this case the first half) is the most important and, disproportionately more so than the last half they played, but it isn't more important than the previous 40 halves that they have played that you used to assess your prematch price yet sometimes the price looks like it is.  This is all slightly dependent upon what point you are at in the season ie I would have made big adjustments after Liverpools first game of the season this year for example becuase there were a lot of new elements to the team.  Your prematch adjustments do change somewhat when a goal has been scored (you generally increase the expected number of goals slightly and reduce the probability of the team that scored to score the next goal) but I will deal with that properly another time.  Does this answer your question?  I know I ramble a bit.

Red, on average how many horse races a day do you make a market for ?. Great diary by the way, interesting to see you having a good few bets at my local  track, Kelso today.Have you ever been up here.

Depends really.  Today I did the three big races at Ascot (did them earlier in the week).  The other bets came from a variety of sources I trust, generally form judges or modellers rather than info.  I don't really like stable info as such.  The best bets actually were in the 325 Kelso and I got that by just having a quick flick through the prices and saw that there were massive differences of opinion between Corals and the other books so decided to have a look and decided Corals were right.  It was an a amazingly gutsy piece of odds compiling for James Knight the Corals compiler who was a big price about a few horses that everyone else made much different.  On an average Monday I might do 6-8 races and during the summer a lot more.  I also bet on maidens and 2yo races without pricing the whole field because it is almost impossible to frankly but I always have a price in mind.

The thing I was really driving at was that the <2.5 price I took was, I think, related to Rangers short price ~1/4 (St Mirren had the lowest goals per match average in the league, so I thought that there might be value) - so does the model (presumably poisson based) that decided the pre event odds just run along until there is a goal or do the users of the models intervene?  If they just let it chug along then the output will still (imo) be wrong as (imo) the initial price was wrong and I shouldn't lay.

The poisson thing is quite interesting as goals in a football match is the way it is always described, but it had occured to me that the scoring rate of each side must change depending on whether they were ahead or behind.  I just assumed that the defensive response of the leading side cancelled out the attacking response of the trailing side.

How closely do you monitor the Racing Post forecasts and how much notice do you take of who compiled it?

Adjustments will be made but they aren't that big.  I tend to deal in supremacies and goal expectancies in football matches and it would be unusual for me to make more than a 0.1 of a goal adjustment in running (maybe more for a big fave).

Nothing like as much as I should.  I used to know Paul Stansfield and respected his view and i think Nev did a couple for a while.   I was also Emily Weber was a good judge of sprint handicaps and without blowing smoke up your arse I had an idea from your old posts on Smartsig and sprintline stuff that you had a clue but I could also easily read a spotlight or forecast and not have any idea who wrote it.  I also think someone can be a very good judge but it doesn't come across when they write for example I know Matt Williams is punting for a living now and making it pay but as a writer for the Post he wasn't someone I would pay any attention to.  Who do you rate? 

Some Spotlighters are better at forecasts than others, while some are better tipsters than others. I am a tez tipster these days coz of years of focussing on in-running but don't make many mistakes with the forecasts imo.

As for the pick of the spotters, Adrian Cook knows the game inside out, likewise Richard Austen and Em is just a legend. Not sure the rest of the team is as strong as it was ten years ago. Richard Young is shyte obv!

Matt is a top man although lost touch with him since he left the paper. Had his own opinions and wrote them in his own way. That's always good. He killed it IR in the early days but then struggled a bit. It had picked up last I heard but guess he'll be part of the 50% club, so dunno now.

Laid Hamilton to lose £15 @ 2.50 Betfair

One area where you can sometimes get an edge is in watching interviews and reading body language and, whilst I am no expert, Lewis hamilton really looked to me in his interview after final qualifying today like he didn't believe he could win.  I have no idea whatn is going on with him in his private life but he is just a completely different driver these days.  I know the season is over effectively but getting on pole should be a reaosn to be happy.  He looked like he wanted to go home.

How would you price up a British general election? Awkward one for me, David Milliband would be 3/5.

??

If he had wone the labour leadership. Ed would be approx 4/5.

I think it is about right to be honest.  Most seats  I would be 8/11 11/8 Tories favourite.  Ed looks like an interim to me and in the long run this might still work out as best thing for David.  Also think that Libs will be decimated and that might benefit the Tories especially in the South West.  All that said it is all about polls and I would have to look closely which I haven't to be certain of a price but realistically anything could happen.

£10 Tony Bellew @ 2.94 in running.

I took an opposite view from that. Infact I've never seen Hamilton seem so focused during a race weekend. He avoided a few interviews in the practice sessions and he was silent on radio after topping qualifying....never seen that before. I think we are seeing him come through the toughest times of his career, he's rid some demons and found his old form.

Also, noticed you backed Button before qualifying, to win the race. I've done the same a few times this season, only to find his odds increase come race time. As Button hasn't claimed pole since Monaco 09, this happens alot....

Do you use f1's live timing? Great tool when betting in play on betfair, even moreso with the asian gp's as the TV coverage tends to be delayed enough to find good value in the fastest lap and finishing markets.

I think Buttons price normally lengthens because he has been a bad qualifier and I expected a bit better today with the McClarens showing more in Singapore and  Vettel possibly easing off.  I am not that disappointed to be honest and he is shorter now and has a cracking chance imo.  Interested in your views on Hamilton.  I only saw a bit of the highlights of qualifying to be honest but the interview just really struck me.  I also think he is struggling preserving his tyres which makes the pole worth less.  I was actually considering a couple of dual forecasts....Button/Alonso at 40/1 with Skybet is decent value I thought.

Ye Button has been great this season with managing his tyres. Last week Hamilton pitted early as they thought he had picked up a puncture but it was just bad tyre degradation.  40/1 is a great price, fancy a Hamilton/Button 1-2 myself, also maybe laying Vettle for podium at 1.4...as Redbulls used up an extra set of softs in qualifying they're trying a different strategy, could screw them in the final laps with everyone else on the faster tyre. The 2nd half of this season has been quality.

This is a bit dirty because of the time of night but managed to get:

£18 @ 5/6 Chad Dawson to beat Bernard Hopkins

Quite honestly the weirdest, luckiest win of my life.........no idea how that was declared a TKO but i will take it.   Serves Hopkins right though.  Has been doing shit like this for years.

Finding it really tough to find any bets today.  Kinda like Spurs but just not sure what the best value angle is.  Trying to get some inspiration by reading some old @thebig_sam tweets.  Now i can't do any research for the tears in my eyes.

Feeling very unethusiastic about this bet but had £10 Spurs @ 6/4.

NFL

£15 SF +4 1.98
£10 Jax +12.5 1.952

Tom Lewis - 3 shots clear and about to win the Portugal Open.  Did I have the best value loser ever when I backed him at 500/1 for British Open......

I was going to say it's looking good for you with Spurs one up at half time but Newcastle just equalised. Why, if you're feeling unenthusiastic, did you do the bet? Did you just feel Spurs should be 11/8 or slightly better?

Me and Tom Lewis share a coach. Obv I'm the better prospect.

Yeah basically.  The bet I really wanted was something good value on Spurs to hammer (ie spurs -2.5 goals) them but I just couldn't find anything that looked priced wrong.  I'm a Boro fan too so it tilts me a bit to oppose Newcastle and not win my bet.  Still think Spuds will win so might have got lucky with my bet in end.

On a strict value criteria I think Cleveland +7 5/6 or so is really good value but one angle I always really like (and I will warn you this is a bit sick) is to bet on teams/players after someone important has died recently because the emotional motivation factor is just so strong.  This is the Raiders first home game since Al Davis died and I was kicking myself for not backing them last week.  Think I just leave this one.

Couldn't remember who mentioned Tom Lewis at the Open here on Blonde, I had a good bet on him for top amateur then. Have been interested/following him ever since.  Very impressed so far but thought a breakthrough win would be next season.  I did have a cheeky bet on him yesterday @ 30/1.  Much appreciated for the info back in July.

What are you thoughts on the rugby? Fair play Sporting Bet going best price both @ 1/7 & 7/1, though obviously they are shortest on the draw.
Obviously NZ are huge, huge favs but is there value @ 7/1 France? How would you price it?
And the 3rd place playoff, do you think Wales could be value @ 13/8 with VC? 3rd place matches are nothing type games but I think Wales will be motivated to finish on a high and Oz may already have switched off.

To be honest I have only watched one game and that was through insomnia rather than desire.  I had a bet on a handful of games but that was just down to knowing a good judge and I didn't even bother to watch them.  I haven't looked at the market but I would guess at something like NZ -14 but it would be a guess.  On the third place game irrespective of the sport it is all about motivation that one.  Probably worth watching interviews/videos to get an idea.

How early do you do ante post bets, for example Cheltenham Festival, I know BH likes an early flutter ( send me tips plz), I intend to go in hard on Cheltenham next year so any tips would be appreciated. It wouldn't sound a lot to you but it is to me Dad, but we put a fiver away every week for Cheltenham since the last festival so we have around £250 each and I fancy having a few shots separately before it starts but I've basically no idea, thanks.

It takes a lot to persuade me to have an ante post bet to be honest.  I tend to do a fair bit a week or so before Cheltenham but like any real punter I am a mug for that four days and I can't help having a bet on every race.  It is the best four days of the year.  I also love the Open weekend coming up in a couple of weeks.  There is just something about the jumpers and Cheltenham in particular.  You have me really quite excited and with that feeling in my stomach just thinking about it.  I have heard about people saying Vegas is like Disneyland for adults but whilst it can be fun i don't really see it.  Cheltenham for four days in March has everything a right thinking man could want.

£20 2h points under 19.5 1.943 Bears/Vikes

£15 Rio Rossanna 540 Ponte @ 13/2

£25 England 3.2.

This is almost certainly going to be a position i trade out of.  Hopefully profitably

Lay £25 England @ 2.50

Since last bankroll update have lost £27.86 pending Rio and England backs and lays today. So bankroll = £890.78

Going through my accounts it is amazing just how important it is to be on top of the market and getting the best prices.  I have backed two horses (Cheylesmore and Dancing rain) where a better reading of the market could have easily £100+ in my bankroll.  It is not that often I get it wrong and variance comes into it massively too ie. I wouldn't be beating myself up about reading the market if Captain Americo had won when I got 10-1 and it went off 7/2 for example but it is definitely something where the payoff is immediate.  So many punters walk into a Ladbrokes and take 3/1 about a horse that might be available at 7/2 in Corals over the road.  If you do that 100 times in a year and are having a £10 on it is costing you over £100 a year.

£22 Dolphins +7 1.95

I really hate all the trends nonesense that the US punters seem to like but one I saw a few years ago that made a lot of sense to me was that teams with a 0-5 record had a ridiculously good record against the spread coming off a bye week.  It makes some sense to me in terms of freshening up and also working on the areas where they are worst.  In this game the fins are 0-4, coming off a bye but I am willing to take a chance on as it also has given Matt Moore a lot more snaps in practise with his O-line and receivers than a normal backup QB would get.  I might have a bit more later but i am not totally confident on the price and it might get bigger.  Quiite like this one.

This is 9/2 now and I am going to add a drifter to the portfolio for the race.

£10 Ullswater @ 9.00 Betfair

Comes from the Mark Johnson stable who are always trying or at least that is what it says on their horseboxes so not too worried about the drift.

I would never back a Johnston drifter. Never ever. Johnston 6/1 > 4/1, yes please, 6/1 > 8/1, no thanks.

I was being slightly facetious with the "always trying" comments but I know where you are coming from.  It was actually fairly well backed after i punted it but drifted again a bit on the shows.  Think it went off 7/1ish on BF but I wasn't paying much attention.

£15 Southampton @ 5/4 general

Managed to get another £15 Dolphins +8.5 1.83 on Betfair.

This is just horrible on so many levels from the Dolphins.

Cracking read gl with this.

I've just been finishing up with work now so missed most of the last 2 quarters, my friend who I sweat the games with is a Fins fan and is not best pleased.....

They literally should have been 14-0 after 5 or 6 minutes.  I honestly think it is one of the most incompetent displays i have ever seen from an NFL team especially the horrible play calling from Sparano.  Oh well on the plus side I will be able to get cheap tickets when i get back to Florida I suppose.

Towards the end of the game they mentioned that they have just brought in a new rule whereby  during a bye week teams have to give 4 consecutive days off during the bye period.  That will definitely affect that angle and is something I didn't know about.  Not sure it really effected this bet tbh because Matt Moore has played fine for a backup but it may be worth opposing teams coming off a bye now and I certainly won't be backing them for now.  Bit sloppy of me to have only just found out about this.

Interesting read. I know nothing about sports betting (except that I'm tez at it).

handful of racing bets placed so far today:

505 Font £15 Freefalling @ 10.5 bf
620 Kempton £20 Francis Albert @ 6/1 Coral
430 Font £20 Saddlers Star @ 3.80 BF

Do you any/many ante-post football bets in place?

No - I don't do that much ante post at all.  Logisitically it is quite difficult managin my bankroll and keeping enough money in all the various different places it needs to be without tying up lumps of it in ante post bets.  Also time value of money tends to negate the advantage that you have from that kind of bet.  The best way to place bets like that is on credit and I don't have access to massive amounts of credit because most of my credit accounts have been shut down and it isn't really fair to ask others to open credit accounts for me.  The only position I have open this year is an ante post bet on Ipswich at 33/1 and I still really like them at 14/1 now.  Think they should be 7/1 shots.

Ipswich...7-1...aah, happy days. Middlesbro best team I've seen so far this season.

2 decent bets today- seems an overreaction to weather in cricket- Australia overpriced at odds against when well set

Marseille way too short v Arsenal- look a decent lay

Ha yes that was a happy day.  I managed to get into a massive hole early that day but had a pretty big bet on Posh at 6/4.  Think they went off at 11/10.  hope you are right about Boro but I have seen about ten of our matches so far and I am not so sure.  Struggling up front although I think we have the best defence in the division and a very good midfield.  Still can't quite have Emnes and Scott McDonald is very good at beating players but unfortunately he prefers doing it with his back to goal.  Putting a lot of hope in Alex Nimely and Ogbeche to get us out of that funk.

Just turned the cricket on.  Whats the forecast?

Has the market moved in the Arsenal game.  I was 1.90 dnb Marseille and thought the market agreed.  Now it is 1/4 ball out.

Just started raining- for some reason SA got backed but then commentators saying DL kind to teams who are x-1 in 50 over games and Aussies went back slight odds on- still seems overpriced given they 96-1 off 19

Marseille been backed all day. No idea why

I wouldn't trust anything commentators say on D/L tbh - they can't even read the charts half the time.  Thanks for bringing Arsenal to my attention.  Have backed them now.

£25 Arsenal +1/4 2.04 sbo.

£10 more on Saddlers Star @ SP. 505 fnt

£20 Watford +1 1.93 SBO

Francis Albert ran well there from missing the break

£15 over 2.5 goals Watford/Leic 4/5 Blue sq

Middlesbrough have scored 1 goal in 5 games and had just the one shot last night.

Surprised your 8/11 and even 4/6 in places at home to Derby on Sat.

£20 Brugge to beat Brum @ 4/5 SJ

England gotta trade shorter than 1.67 in running- commentators raving about the pitch but stats are 256avg and 14/19 sides that batted first have won

I prefer India at 2.5.
Is a cracking pitch and their batsman are in good form.
More than can be said for our bowlers.

I think they get there at least 1 in every 2 times.

Wait till they lose 1st wicket if u wanna back India- new balls were doing a bit and Indias openers always vulnerable

Backed India pre game at 1.8 so not getting involved again at the moment.

Think that looks a very decent score but my worry would be that England haven't looked like getting enough wickets in 50 overs to slow down scoring.  Slight preference for England at these prices but not enough for a bet.

Vilas Boas is 8/1 PFA Manager of Year at Stanjames

Seems a pretty good way to get 8/1 about a 3/1 shot imo.

£25 Elusivity @ 7/1 345 Donny

Not Spencers best moment?

Possibly but beaten far enough.  In 22 runner races a bit of luck in running is always going to be a big factor.

Spencer got too cocky there as usual.

Going to Donny tomorrow Red, do you fancy anything?

I haven't looked yet tbh.  i did have a brief look at the RP Trophy but couldn't have a bet in that although I wouldn't be surprised to see Camelot go off odds on.  ladbrokes are already there and if you look at the ownership of the horse you would have to imagine they would have the best info.  Will obv post if I do anything in the morning.

i didnt post for fun, whats ur opinion?

 

:-) I don't think it is 8/1 about a 3/1 shot but obv there is a lot of correlation and I would imagine he would win it if they won the title (which I don't love as a bet anyway).  I would imagine it is value however although I would be worried last time Chelsea won the league Ancelotti didn't win it.  Marginal for me as I make Chelsea 11/2 shots for league anyway. 

lawl knob

£30 Camelot 300 Doncaster @ 11/8

Not really one for stable info but have heard from 3 sources this morning that this is an absolute machine including some things I won't repeat because it will just sound ridiculous if the horse gets beat but I have every reason to believe the horse will go off odds on.

Some early football:

£35 Derby +3/4 2.01 SBO
£15 Notts Forest 11/4
£25 Bolton @ 13/10

£25 Rumble of Thunder 225 Doncaster

225 Aintree ^^^

Yep - thanks.  have donny on my mind for some reason.

Camelot now 5/6 in Ladbrokes. Due to a Non Runner

On for 1 hunder.

Lets GOGOGO

Thoughts on red cards in the manchester derby?

Price on 2?

5/4 WH's

Betting on bookings and cards is a very specialised area and really needs good knowledge of referees stats along with the teams etc.  I would guess the price of a single red in this game would be about 4/1 and obviously if one comes then another is more likely so maybe 5/2 for the second.  5*3.5= 17.5 so about a 16/1 shot but I wouldn't be that confident tbh.

Good question/point.  The Asian market as a whole is a lot more efficient now than it ever has been but the reason that it can still support people winnign as big and Tony and Matt is that there is still a huge amount of public money which doesn't materialise until gameday either.  I am willing to go against their moves especially later in the day because my observation is that the market overreacts to their bets (Tony's in particular).  I do know of a punter/bookmaker (well known at Sheffield dogs if that helps anyone!) that for a while was betting against every one of TB's bets (after they had moved obv) and making a very small profit on turnover.  I haven't spoken to either of Bloom or Benham personally for a while but I would be very surprised if either of them are making more than 4-5% on turnover these days.  It is a very low margin game and they are very good at it but I think I have a very good opinion and I have access to some excellent modelling too.  My results on my bets on gameday are obviously worse than those placed earlier in the week but there isn't much is only a couple of percentage points in it.  Football isn't as profitable as other sports for me now in margin terms but the offset of that is that it is easy to get on especially in Asia for the sort of size I need.  The other obvious point is that I am a bit indecisive and take time over my selections.  i am still trying to figure out whether i want to back Swansea and the game started twenty minutes ago.

Looks like I need to work on that indecision......FFS

too much wine......

£20 Livingston @ 11/10

This is only available on coupons now by the looks of things which is how I got it.

Having a bit of a nightmare day today.  Can't get into my email or msn which is where I get a lot of my info and ratings etc sent to and I couldn't get a copy of the Racing Post.  It is amazing just how much info I rely on on a daily basis.

haha, yeah I figured by the time of the post, happens

There is a 15yo kid playing for Derby today.  How good must he be?

Good call on Rumble

lets see if Camelot makes the nice double also, gl us

Been mulling Wigan all morning but The Camel has persuaded me.  #Newcastleunitedarebeatable

£20 Wigan +1 1.91 sbo

Brilliant machine, thanks

Hmmmm....that was interesting.  It has won well enough but you really get the feeling Jospeh O'Brien never ever thought that defeat was possible.

Trebled both yours with granddads horse, happy days

He just sat there, big things ahead for that beast

thx Red

Many Thanks Red.  :)up :)up ;tightend; ;tightend; ;applause; ;tightend;

£15 Arthurian Legend @ 15/2 SJ 415 Chepstow - very much a price thing.

£15 Norwich +1.75 1.87 sbo

Sorry bet on Arthurioan legend is £15EW @ 15/2

fml. Was on for the max and was already thinking I´ll need to apologise on the forum for the aftertiming.

ty for the excellent calls/info on the horses.

Red u r the legend, thanks again.

Thanks but running pretty good to be fair at the moment with racing in particular although football has been pretty ugly recently.

Chicago Bears made a mistake in only arriving yesterday iyo?

Yeah i have been running lousy on the football also, struggling to weigh things up at the mo.

Interesting one.  The logic is that there are too many distractions for the team if they are here all week and I can understand that and I think that game time means it shouldn't be a massive issue but I think I prefer the TB approach.  I also think that passing teams have an advantage as i am not convinced that the Wembley turf really suits teams with a good running game so think the Bucs have a bit of an advantage there too but line has moved the other way a bit so will probably wait.

Was considering backing Soton to beat Reading.  Certainly can't see them losing but switched it on and saw Peter Beagrie doing the punditry.  Can't stand the man for what he did to Boro when we really needed him and have literally never won a bet on any game where his weasly little face has been present so am going to leave it.  Illogical I know.  Was fairly marginal tbh but the +EV given away is worth it for Beagrie not to put me on lifetilt.

Any chance this is related to UK based Bears fans wanting to have a punt? Probably the 3rd most popular NFL team in the UK in my experience. I´m not really sure whether the volumes would be big enough to move the line but it might be a factor. I´m certainly wanting to be with Tampa as things stand.

They will certainly have the bigger support and the anti-Glazer sentiment might mean it is bigger than you would expect.  I would think those supporting the Bears would outnumber those supporting the Bucs two or three to one but the couple of times I have been to these games there are shirts from literally every team in the NFL and home advantage tends to be down to noise and inability to hear playcalling etc in the NFL and i doubt it will be that big an effect.  In terms of money bets from Bears fans in UK will be negligible imo.  Out of interest who would you say are the two teams better supported in UK?

49ers far and away first and Cowboys second. This is one of those things where I´d be totally confident of my assessment until a spot like this where I´m forced to think about what Í´ve based my judgement on. I can´t come up with anything substantial and yet I´d still be surprised if I´m wrong :-).

Interesting.  If I had to guess I would have said Bears and Dolphins were top two but like you I have nothing to base it on.  Think it is something to do with who were decent when NFL first started showing on Ch4.  The Fridge, Dan Marino etc.  Suppose that was the 49ers era of Rice and Steve Young/Montana too.

Since last bankroll update winning £246.42 so bankroll stands at £1137.20.  Nice to be in front on the diary although to be honest the swings have been fairly standard. 

Bit more on the accounts side.  Turnover of £1995 and profit of £137.20 which is a return of 6.8%.  Within what i would expect over 100ish bets really.  feel as though i have been a bit lazy this week so could potentially have made a bit more but in terms of percentages I am fairly happy with that kind of return.  Normally racing returns a bit more in terms of ROI but sport I am more confident of my prices in if that makes sense.  It is very rare that I price a horse at 3/1 and it is priced up at 10/1 and I "know" my price is correct.  In sport I often am very confident of my price.  i suppose it is because the form is out there in the sports.  On that note:

£10 Jason Booth to beat Scott Quigg @ 4.6 Betfair

My price was 4/11, 3/1 with the draw at 50/1.  Quigg looks to be the real deal but Booth is a proper fighter and has been in with some very tough cookies.

Scott Quigg has been very impressive tonight.  Could be very good in a decent division.

I'd a nice bet on Camelot. Saw the horse very briefly, everyone around pre parade ring waiting for it coming out of box, comes out of box and straight down the chute to the course, the  dissapointed crowd lets out a awwwww. What a beast pleased it did'nt parade would have gone off at1/2. Think i saw the Derby winner.

£15 Stoke +1 1.91
£15 Under 2.5 1.98

No RVP for Arsenal.

£25 Fulham @ 7/5

£15e/w Vellios FGS (Fulham/everton) @ 9/1 paddys

£15 MC dnb 1.75 sbo in running.

Asian Handicaps in running are for the rest of the game ie as though it is 0-0 now.

1.28 QPR looks a max bet

i was thinking chelsea at 16/1 looked tempting. I'll have £20 @ 16/1 if you want ot lay it?

20 to win 310

16.5 bf- that ok?

thats what it is at mo

Booked.

£15 Bucs +1.5 2.00 Pinny

Struggling with the NFL and don't even love this but it looks pick em game to me all told.

Sometimes my insights are really stunning......only 100yrds on the floor in the first quarter...RVP comes off the bench to score two when I oppose Arsenal for being without him.....#whenwillitend

Paddys are 3/1 Silva to be player of the year.  I would be Evens but can't get on with them for that kind of bet.  Amazing value imo.

£30 Cards +4 1.96 pinny

£25 KC Chiefs @ 7/4 Coral

£20 over 24 2h points 1.935 GB/Vikes Pinny

£20 Colts +13.5 1.96 Pinny

Addai is back now and that should make a difference to the Colts.  They did me a favour last time they were on national TV and I fancy them again.  Bucs this week showed they are no great shakes yet they took the Saints apart last week.

was going to back him last week at 6/1 and didn't do it, durr.

Not backing cavendish at 14/1 for spoty before the world champs was another recent balls up.

Stoke 9/4 at home in the carling cup this week is looking good.

Ace

Can get 5/2 with sky bet

£20 Marsh Warbler @ 3/1  420 Southwell

Red

Have you backed marsh warbler on value or form, thanks

thanks.

Not really sure I understand the question. A study of form is what leads me to make a value judgement.  I never have a bet I don't consider to be value although the components that leads me to that decision change.  If what you mean is am I backing it because it is 9/4 elsewhere then no.  I would back it at 11/4 for slightly less if i only had access to that price.  Not a backer at 5/2 though I don't think as not 100% certain this isn't a sharpener.  I understand the stable like the horse as a hurdler.

Thankyou

Do you use any of the software for Betfair, eg Bet Angel?

Or do you not really get involved inplay etc

I have gruss installed on my laptop and I pay the £8 a month for it.  Not sure whether it is worth it as I only really use it when I intend to trade but one click betting and the quick refresh are probably worth £8 a month alone and i should probably get into the habit of using it everytime I bet on Betfair but I don't.  I should also teach myself how to use the functions whereby I could write excel spreadsheets and automatically bet but I like control and to be able to mull bets a bit too much for that even though it probably costs me long run.

Gruss is cheating!

What did you use Chompy?

Manual, tap de numbers in. Dinosaur apparently  :(

This race at Southwell this afternoon is a good example of the kind of things you need to be aware of when pricing events up.  My initial prices had Marsh Warbler at 5/2 but I have/had very little idea how accurate that price is because the horse hasn't run since March.  If it is fit then that could realistically be as low as 2/1 but if it isn't fit then it could be a genuine 8/1 shot.  The fact some money has come for it is reassuring and would potentially make me harden my price into 9/4 allthough the books haven't exactly been knocked over.  Of course the yard comes into the calculations too.  For some yards a drifter is nothing to worry about, for others it should affect your price massively.  

I don't bet racing in running, tried it a couple of times and realised I was outclassed, but i would have thought that those extra half a second and quicker response time would have been very important in running?

£20 Over 17.5 lengths winning distances @ Southwell 7/4 Ladbrokes.

Does anyone have a Ladbrokes Odds On card?  If so have you "upgraded" it so you can bet online or over the phone and deposit and withdraw at your local shop.   What, erm, identity requirements do they have?

would have thought expected to be about 14.5, so under that more than 50% - how do you work that this bet is value (or is it just an outlier)?

I do and have never had to provide any ID to get cash out of the shops having transfered from my poker acc or spin ups in sports betting but this has only ever been in units of £500 and not very often  obv

How does it work Rich?  I understand the process of filling the form out etc but do you have to show any id at the point you apply for the card.  I suppose what I am getting at is can i walk into a shop and say I would like an odds on card fill out the form and deposit a monkey and then have an account in the name of, say, Tony Kendall.  win a copuple of quid and then just go and present the card and withdraw if needs be?

pm sent

£15 e/w Callisto Light @ 11/1 Southwell 350

Sorry I missed this earlier.  How do you work it out at 14.5?  Track is riding very slow at Southwell which tends to make up fairly high anyway.  That couple with a decent shape for a couple of the races made it a bet. 

I have a db with winning distances - gave up with this type of bet as after I guesstimated I found that it was almost always v near the spread on sporting index.  (Though 3 small field stakes races at southwell are just about the best you could have for an overs bet and I prob don't have enough examples of these.)

Where do the bookies put these bets on their website, I looked on Lads and couln't find it?

must have traded big ir down the back

Just didn't want to win too far mate ;-)

Joking apart I did think for a moment it was going to get beat a short head for the nut worst result.

^^^^^^

LOL.

Wp Many Thanks.

yeah mbn with overs being in 1 to go and one you have bet making it!!

£15 double/parlay Jax +10 and Under 40 points both @ 10/11

Can you shed any light on what this is supposed to be? From the Lads website it seems to be a loyalty card but can you just use it as a pre-paid debit card or something and place bets with it?

Basically, yes.

results since last update -£21.30
Bankroll = £1115.90

I really want to back Brighton tonight now but a bit conifused by the market moves.  Anyone (BH) got a view?

2 sides i've been opposing in the last few weeks and might well continue too.

I've had a strong opinion all summer that West Ham won't finish in the top 2. Problem is though, they are a lot better away from home imo. They buckle under the pressure at Upton Park and are very opposable at short prices.

I wasn't really interested in a punt tonight but if Brighton get upto around 3.4/3.45 (should'nt) I probably won't have a choice.

One I am already loving for Saturday is Watford at home to Peterborough as outsiders!!!
I know you have had your fingers burnt on them recently but they have created chances at both Leicester and Hull away and I wasn't overly impressed with Pboro on Saturday. They will be without Tomlin too I assume. I can't believe Watford are 2.8 at home, their starting line up isn't even that bad and have drafted in Michael Kightly and Craig Beattie on loan. Pboro create a lot of chances but they cannot be favourites.

Glglgl backing Watford this weekend sir

Not sure I could have Peterborough as faves at Bristol City nevermind Watford although I know Chompy will disagree.  Going to watch first 15 minutes of this game.  WH have scored early quite a lot this year...think they are the kind of team that need to score early to keep motivated.  They don't like it when things don't got o plan for them.

Thanks.

I don't dislike Peterborough, I backed you at Pompey when you were like 3.6. But under 2/1 at Watford seems wrong, nevermind 8/5 or shorter.

£20 Brighton +1/4 1.85 in running sbo.

just greened up in this match after backing wh 1-0 and under 2.5.  Is a lot of the activity on these markets bot related? - there was a long injury break and the prices of these tumbled in line with the clock - ignoring the potential of added time.

Certainly some of it will be bot related but any decent in running model should have injury time as an input.  Mine does.

there was 9 mins added, so maybe v long injury break near the end of match messes them up? - I wasn't going to green up as my rough and ready spreadsheet didn't show any value, but both the prices contracted markedly while the guy was getting seen to then stretchered off.

FFS couldn't someone warn me Beagrie was in the studio.......

It is definitely an area where a lot of models fall down especially those that are not that robust.  Injuries and breaks in play do tend to see price movements.  You get them at HT too which is illogical if you think about it.  I think people just use those breaks to see what the betting is.  I would imagine turnover spikes too and it probably isn't that sharp either although both of those points are just conjecture.

£25 India @ 1.71 BF

Only just started reading this thread, how many times have you backed India in this series? i've been on them every game so far, couldn't believe England were favs for the 1st game, India are just incred in there own conditions, nobody will beat them in the next 10 years in a odi series minimum, they are that good at home.

I think this is the first time.  I know I was stupid enough to bet England earlier in it in running but only once.  The irony being that I got quite excited about backing an Indian whitewash and then put myself off when there was only 14/1 available.  To be fair i think that probably wasn't value even now.  I bet tomorrows game 8/13 India 13/8 England and I could only be shorter India.

Im usually a backer of England when there at home but as soon as they go to Asia i can't back them agonst India, i still fancy us to do well against Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the test series after christmas but the odi's and the t20's i have to fancy the home team if im betting game to game.

Pretty much everyone's view on England at the moment but i still fanncy us to win both series this winter, had a small double on it

£20 Black Annis Bower @ 2/1 220 Catt

Great result on yank footie last night red

£15 Bolton to beat Arsenal @ 6/1

David Silva 6/4 chance now with PP ;)

MS Dhoni has been simply immense in this series.  Truly amazing to go a whole series without being out.

£10 e/w Sir Windsorlot @ SP 150 catt

Hunch or info on team news?

Mick Easterby tricks there, you just can't trust him.

All eyes on Cecils noble mission now

?

Frankels brother.

Pretty friendless in market tho.

yarm 2.30

lol how can they jerk over noble missions performance then

Was a nice friendly introduction, he's still a bit green

looking through the replay he is going to need further.

BBC states that RVP, Song and Mertesacker will 'amongst' the first teamers rested and then goes on to name a few Bolton regs that will play and I think they are a bit underrated in general.  The fact Arsenal play Chelsea on Sunday was also a factor

On this Noble Mission - These Yarmouth maidens are VERY good especially at this time of the year because the big newmarket yards use them to give their better prospects a run out without having to take them too far from home.  It beat a couple of horses with form including Commitment that was fourth in a Newmarket maiden first time up.  My hunch would be that the winner will be very good and Noble Mission will be decent too.

£10 India @ 4.3 in run

Got on this. Nice of England to lose a few wickets in a short space of time.

I didn't really expect England to lose 10 wickets for 47 runs though.

Things swung around well there.

England were thinking of getting Beagrie into the studio!!!!!!

sat is chels v arsenal

If anything that is better.  Can't imagine Wenger risking too many.

Betting at long odds on doesn't suit my temperament but I cannot see how Man Utd can fail to be value at 1/4 tonight......mulled it over for hours and have finally pushed the button.

£15 Man Utd @ 1/4

£15 e/w Lord of the Reins @ 9/1 130 Notts

Might back a couple of others in this assuming the 16 runners holds up but this looks a fair price given it beat the jolly by 3 lengths last time they met with only a 3lb pull now.

Some big bets placed that day on The Strig

PV do you think

PV=place value???

Think there is plenty of place value in this race yes.  Also like Above the Stars but honestly I couldn't put you off any at the front of the market each way such is the advantage of ew 1/4 odds first four in a 16 runner race.

Trying to work out the Nottingham sprint draw at this time of year is a nightmare redarmi, hope you're OK with stall 1.

PV  was actually thinking the Veitch/Williams connection with the bets that were placed, someone fancied it.

I spent a bit of time looking at results from sprints there this year last night.  Really struggling to see any bias.  Of course that doesn't mean there isn't any and you are a better judge of the draw than me.  You have a view at all?  what assumption would you go with?

Ah okay - I get you.  Yes it is certainly possible.  I think it had the benefit of a clever ride and decent draw last time out which isn't as likely this time.  Could obviously win though.

£10e/w Above the Stars @ 7/1

Never have a clue there these days. There's not much in it most of the time on the summer course coz of watering but it's guesswork on this course. It's been random for a few years and there can be as much as ten lengths in it on occasions.

Near side I'll be watching Ridley Didley, who'll prolly tow them for half a mile, then hang left and leave a gap for something. Sounds like a plan anyway.

Not really sure what to make of that.  All barring my initial selection drawn in single figures but none in bottom three.

No more sprints! Ridic! They'll come centre to far side I reckon the rest of the card. Frontrunners day for me.

Udinese +0.5 v napoli tonight looks excellent value, have had a little on Full time at 4/1 to.

£20 Everton 11/5 Ladbrokes (shops only)

£10 Dzeko to score first @ 4/1 (moneyback if game goes to extra time) Ladbrokes shops.

Not totally sure on the maths but pretty sure this is better than 5/1 with no concession.  I had to think on my feet as I only noticed it when I was in the shop.

£15 Cavani @ 5/1 FGS Napoli/Udinese with thanks to adn

£15 Wolves 7/1 Spreadex

Is it just me or is the racing today as difficult as i have ever seen.  Looks like at least half the horses running at Lingfield and Kempton are making their debuts on the surface which makes it a bit of a lottery.  Studying pedigrees and understanding which horses were likely to act in certain crcumstances used to be one of my strong points but I haven't looked at breeding stats for ages.

Time of the year, another week or two and it should be more clearer on the jumpers.

any bets today mate?

thoughts on todays distances? looking for any bet to keep mind occupied this afternoon cos got load of house work to do

No real view to be honest.  Only horses I have potentially a bit of interest in backing are Grams and Ounces at Fontwell in the 330.  Think the favourites at Stratford all look very solid if you have a spread account a buy there would give you some interest but beyond that I think I may take rest of day off.  Frankly, it is ridiculous that a man of your stature and means doesn't have a nubile young lady doing the housework ;-)

ha she pregnant and at work, not to be messed with at the moment!

I'm informed the fav in the 2.50 stratford should be evens not 2/1. Any thoughts?

Just my two pence, whoever told you that needs to have a LOT of info on the horse and having seen him work tremendously well. Erdeli could obv well win and is taking a big drop in class and steps back up in distance, but even money is a ridic price, I would argue that 2-1/15-8 is fairly skinny on a horse that hasn't been finishing it's races terribly well TBH.

Edit; though the race itsself is also full of frustrating types.

Obv it wins at around 6-4

Top man

Was it a comfortable winner?

I missed the race because of work so just had the login to Ladbrokes sweat when I finished the skype call :D

I was only reading the RP betting site commentary..they stated "It looks like Erdeli just got up".

16-1 shot Flowerbud finished second.

Didn't sound to me like it was comfortable.

not comfy at all. I thought it was a great ride to be honest, it was on and off the bridle a fair bit. You can see why its disappointed before, its not a keen runner.

Sounds like I missed a chance to shout at the monitor....

It definitely ran in snatches. Not betting it but am told grams and ounces in 330 font is schooling well which is half the battle

TBH everyone that bets on football should bet Asian lines as a default because you are betting against the lowest margins and they also have the lowest variance.  Obviously if you understand how markets are prices you should pick and choose wherever you get the best price but for the average man in the street the best thing they could do is bet Asian lines and if you can master that and figure out the conversions then the easiest way to make money gambling is betting the big Asian moves with the UK bookies before they change their prices.

It is probably going to be a bit of a hassle to post this weekend as I am heading down to London for the weekend and to the South Coast to win the Championship title decider so i am going to be travelling a lot but I have done a couple of bits and pieces that I can post now.

£25 Birmingham @ 6/5 Coral
£10 Boro @ 7/2 Coral
£20 Barnsley @ 2.15 Hills
£15 Palace @ 2.70 Hills

In Prem I am tempted by Stoke @ 6/5 and also think 2/5 Spurs seems fair but haven't played yet.  Might also do some kind of multiple because I am certain that Brum, Barnsley (any view Sheriff?) and Palace are value.  I think when you do multis you have to be very sure of your prices because one wrong step can screw up the value of the whole bet but I am fairly sure this week.

^^ This is perfect, I´ve got a big boozing weekend planned so I was keen to get a few bets on early, cheers :-). Have a good weekend, big wins for the Swans and Boro please.

I can't get on with baldy but if anyone can then Lee Jennings is a spot of value for Prizefighter Saturday night @ 14/1.  Every other firm is about half the price and I was 10/1 to 100% so it is pretty good value.  I like Rhys Roberts a bit too and would be surprised if he goes off at 4/1.  As mentioned before the draw is a massive random factor in these.

£5 e/w Soren Kjeldsen @ 66/1 1/4 first four Andalucia Masters Golf

Was really tempted to back Kjeldsen pre tourney but he has been out of form recently despite an amazing record around here.  He is 7 shots off the lead but T16 at the moment and whilst Richie Ramsay could just run away with this I fancy he is marginally more likely to fold under the pressure and a 2 or 3 under tomorrow will have Kjeldsen in the hunt.

£20 Watford @ 13/8

^^^ gg

£20 Kathleen Frances @ 16/1 335 Nmkt

Hard to argue against at that price.  Bristol City at home is a game we "should" win and our injury situation is clearing up.  We've been playing pretty well at home in recent games and there's no reason to expect any change tomorrow.  You also benefit from the "Sheriff not going" factor, which usually guarantees an improved performance.

Odds against looks huge value to me.

Have had another £10 on Watford @ 13/8.   I really like the addition of Nyron Nosworthy to Watford on loan today.  He is decent at this level.

I need to find a new hero :(

£10 Vita Lika @ 10/1 330 Nmkt.  11/1 is available if you can get on with the minor firms.

worth a RFC ? :)

Greedy

16.5 on bf

I have e/w them

£50 Dean Byrne @ just under 8/13 overall

Byrne is a late replacement for Frankie Gavin in this fight after Funtime Frankie went AWOL from his training camp.  The bookies priced that fight 1/33 Gavin 16/1 Horta.  Coming up with prices for fights involving tough journeymen like Horta isn't easy but Byrne is unbeaten in 15 fights and looks a decent prospect.  The big unknown is that Byrne fought an eight rounder last week on the undercard of the Norton fight and was taken all the way.  I am pretty confident he wouldn't be taking this fight if he didn't think he could win and even allowing for the fight last week i thought he would have been about 1/6.  He used to be trained by Freddie Roach and is considered a good tough sparring partner for the likes of Michael Katsidis and Kevin Mitchell so he is clearly rated.  I don't see how he can possibly be 8/13 against the third best fighter at this weight in France.  I wouldn't be much bigger than 2/1 against Gavin.  Couple of decent judges I spoke to this morning were largely in agreement althought they were not as short as me but all told i have to have a maximum.

FML - am on a train with with patchy internet and trying to get my business done as I am travelling.  Bit annoying to have rtaken such a short price.

Must be Friday the afternoon excitement, I haven´t had a RFC on the horses for something like 10 years. As soon as I saw the second post I straight away thought landing a sneaky tenner RFC would be a great way to start the weekend.

You are all leading me astray.....now you have me thinking about paying for my weekend away with a cheeky rfc.  The only time I have ever really done fc or tc are in the old days when the draw bias wasn't in them and I had a couple of decent results but nothing spectacular.  I think there is definitely mileage in them but not sure this is the race for it.

Fek it, on the RFC now lol

Ugh, that was ugly.  Wasn't able to watch fight but heard it wasn't great.  Not often I do in the max bets so a bit gutted.

There is really nothing I hate more than doing my money in style on an odds on shot that I think is close to a certainty.  It makes me feel so stupid and even though in the long run boxing has been a good sport for me and one in which I think the odds compilers in general are not that good but it can be very difficult to price and one where knowledge of training camps and a fighters condition can be a massive advantage.  This is why we have bankroll management and for the first time since I started the diary I was tempted to have more than 5% on.  Still not totally sure whether I priced this right or not given the knowledge/info I had but I probably underestimated what last week may have taken out of him. 

Heading to Southampton tomorrow to watch my beloved Boro and it is a massive game for us so beyond what I have already done I probably won't do too much.  I do have a guy that puts a lot of my money on whose opinion and info i rate very highly so we may do a couple of horses but beyind that, and after tonight, I will probably have a fairly slow day and almost certainly won't post unless I have a particularly strong view.  Me and the lads I go to the match with have a longstanding tradition that when the Boro win we buy a round of drinks that are red in colour so if you see a big fella in the Hampshire then later London area drinking red aftershocks or something similarly ridiculous whilst singing "oh Nickey Bailey you are the love of my life, oh Nickey Bailey I'd let you shag my wife, oh Nickey Bailey I want ginger hair too" then that'll be me.

Watford  ;D

Get outtttttttt Chompy.

Sigh, I cursed this thread too as well as the NFL one.

Never giving an opinion again, or at least not until tomorrow :(

Same old Posh. Might work it out in the week but I reckon we've gone behind in about three-quarters of games this season and conceded in the opening ten minutes of most of those. Can't keep doing that at this level.

£30 Alonso to win Indian Grand prix @ 7/1 (8/1 is avail with the Nanny)

Thoughts on Melbourne cup?

De sousa on fox hunt got a chance?

Interested on your thoughts behind this, just priced wrong ?

Yeah.  I fancied he would beat Webber who was ahead of him on the grid.  He had done it week in week out and Webbers starting has been awful and I thought given Vettel has thw title wrapped up he probably wouldn't be taking unneccesary risks.  It was made easier by the fact that most other firms were 9/2 and 5/1 so it looked a bit of a rick by a couple of the firms really.  In those cases I tend to just go with my initial gut feel.  If the price had been a general market price I would have done a bit more work on it to ensure it was value but normally the outlying prices are wrong if you think they are and can overthink it too much.

LOL, I thought it said Italian Grand Prix and was for the next race, wasn't meant as a rub, haha. ( I now realise the Italian GP has already happened as well).

I remember speaking to a guy at the felt about a year or so ago who was saying he makes a load betting on F1, I believe solely betting on Vettel/Vettel or Webber/Webber for Pole/Race winner depending on what some contact he had at Redbull told him, guessing he's had a good year with Vettel this year.

Back in the saddle today.

410 Redcar two bets:

£10 e/w Lady de Sol @ 20/1
£15 e/w Edgeware Road @ 10/1

Southampton @ 10-1 to put 5+ past the mighty Posh worth a close look.

can get 29/1 with 12bet

Now that IS a big price.

Do they always go this sort of price about a 1/2 shot scoring 5+? If so they're gonna be paying out a lot on Man City this season imo.

£15 e/w Gervinho to score 1st @ 13/2 BSQ

Do you have him upfront here?

yeah...don't you?

Just turned game on.  Maybe not.

Any get on ? 2-0 to Southampton and now P'boro down to 10men, glglgl if you did.

I'm not on but I always think that red cards are bad for these kind of bets especially when they involve teams like posh because they lose their swagger going forward.  At 2-0 with eleven men they will still fancy they can score a couple but with ten men they might slow down a bit.  Obv it has a better chance now than at start of game though and was a great call....just kinda thinking out loud.

they do. i've backed a few but haven't landed one yet. hopefully they'll pay out when i do. Hopefully i can find out tomorrow, c'mon southampton....

Aren't they a sat book of one of the big Asian firms?  i thought they were

Was gonna ask earlier if they're safe to bet with? Lost touch with all things fixed odds and online.

They used to be owned by the same guys as IBC but they got sold off I think. They still clone IBC odds though.

Best to tread carefully with any firm that is so far out of line in my experience. Luvbet, urgh.

Think this is the wrong market you are looking at.  the "5-0 and up" bet isnt to score 5 or more, its to win by 5 or more clear goals

Yes it is for the team to win by a margin or five or more goals.

Had a few multiples today.  main horses left in them are:

150 Capdalight
200 Lelaps
210 Guard Chapel
420 Miss Ballantyne

Not sure exactly what I have got yet but the bets are each way trebles and lucky 15.  Probably work out at about 1.5% of bankroll invested overall.  races are obviously bad ew

have sent an email, they are offering a market where sometimes its not possible to back the winner. someone else recommended it to me and i never checked the rules.

Not sure i understand what you are saying but if what you are saying is that the winning option may not be available then every firm does that.  The rules of the asian bookies that offer this state quite clearly that 5up is for a team to win by five clear goals.

have you got an example of a british bookie doing it?

Every bookie does it for correct score. Its only betfair that has "any unquoted" off the top of my head

red a question about pinnacle - they had a under 3 goals - 1.9/ over 3 - 2.0 bet rather than <2.5/>2.5,  is that bet a push if there are 3 goals?

fair enough. thats poor form in my book.

Yes that is a push if it lands on 3 goals.

Couple of racing bets today

£20 Spahi @ 8/1 340 Southwell
£15 D'Gigi @ 4/1 130 Muss
£15 benficial Reform 200 Muss

fair enough. thats poor form in my book.
[/quote]

It is logistically not feasible to list every possible outcome.  Scores like 6-1, 7-2, 8-4 etc occur so infrequently that most bookmakers don't list them in the same way that they won't list a 2yo horse making its debut in a seller at Redcar for next years 2000 Guineas even though it could potentially win it.  You do hear old timers going on about some law of gambling which is "if you can't back the winner, then you can't back a loser" but I suppose the 'others on application' covers that.

D gigi wins well WD

ha ha. sorry, i didn't mean to rob your tip for the official thread. didn't see you'd posted it here. wd wd.

Actually I think I posted it after you.  Mine needs a Rule4 applying to it too by the looks of things.

Had a word for one in the 425 Thurles.  Not for me but possibly interesting at a big price.  Henry Adams @ 20/1 or so.  It is  NHF race which if ever there was a place to listen to info is probably the place along with maidens.

Thoughts on R.Johnson as a jockey?

Southwell 15.40

Spencer rolls up for just one ride on the jolly, interesting.

tnks

Bit of late money for Spahi

Nice try but the russian was just to good

puke

some money for this just gone from 14/1 into 11/1

Appears to have been backed in a bit!

I snap chucked some on when I saw red mention it @ 25s, now 9s.

Anyone watching this? Any good?

yes. no.

Missed the start but seemed a bit ragged....was Henry Adams one of those left?

This is going to go really quickly:

£30 Aqua Aura 530 Wolves

@ 6/4

on

Can anyone get on with Corals online?

Got sorted with this:

£100 e/w Royal Delta @ 7/2 Corals Breeders Cup Ladies Classic 1130 Churchill Downs

Can't really see this one being out of the frame and plenty of excuses both times it has been beat and has beaten the two favourites here in similar circumstances.  i think it might go off favourite here and 7/2 seems too big.  I was 11/4.

backed two more in the Breeders:

£5 e/w Dayatthespa @ 11/1 850 Juv Fillies turf (worth more but is pricewise so v hard to get on
£10 e/w Sum of the Parts @ 18/1  810 Juv Sprint

Is this a typo or really £100EW so £200 in total? Big bet if it is!     Trying to decide how much i should lump on :)

on, for a bit more than is good for me.....

Sorry it should have read £10 e/w but I actually wrote the actual bet I got returned....so much for the mystery bet amounts!!

Been looking at the wsop main event and had:

£10 e/w Eoghan O'dea @ 5/1

He has 16% of the chips yet he is only taking 16% out of the betting market and the e/w at 1/4 odds 1-3 is particularly good.  I am not massively up on the relative talents but Surely he isn't worse than the fourth or fifth best player at the table is he?  It is one of those bets where I am pretty sure it isn't -EV but not totally sure how much +EV it is.

Eoghan is pretty tight so the ew is excellent value

Id be a layer of Lamb, people vastly overestimating his ability and skilledge- he has to be too short. Probably would be a backer of chip leader, being a "spewer/fish" aint the worse thing ever for a final table anyway

Assuming u backed Eoghan with Paddy- probably worth doing because if he took a real bad beat or something along them lines, its not inconceivable that they would refund all bets given he is sponsored by them.

Had a chuckaway £70 on Giannetti, although will probably get grimmed if he binks it

Yeah I did.  Hawkins was eschewing that exact same view last night.  I had never considered it but has to be a possibility.  I think it is value with a lot of potential other positives.

thanks.

Lovely win. Watched the race on betfair. Wasn't watching the market but when I glanced at an update it was 6.8. Was never really out of contention any reason for that?

This - I know not a tipping thread, but had a punt as liked your line - ty red

Looked for a split second coming around the bend as though it wasn't going to pick up but even then 6.8 seems a bit much.

Just as they were coming round the bend it was a couple of lengths behind the front 3 and the jockey was starting to get to work, expected it to have traded slightly higher really but guess I know nothing of the horses action.

Absolutely stormed home in the end, well timed ride and the horse is a machine.

Had 3 winners tonight, this might end up being my first winning Breeders Cup meeting of all time, although tomorrow night will probably have something to say about that.

Really?  Breeders Cup has always been one of my favourite events although I have had some bloodbaths over the years too.  Bit like Cheltenham really.  I find some of the American favourites get really, really overbet.

always go pub for breeders cup night, 8pm meet till 1am tommorow oi oi

£20 Sarafina @ 3/1 BC Turf Hills
£10 e/w Kiama Bay @ 14/1 310 Donny

Done a bit of footy and other stuff but will pass on later when i get returns

Some rugby union I did yesterday.  Should still be there I think:

£11 Ospreys -5 10/11
£11 Ulster -13 10/11
£11 Leicester -10 10/11
£11 Aironi +1 10/11

£15 Newcastle @ 2.42 Betfair

Really am not a fan of Newcastle and think they are very overrated but this price is silly.  On all evidence this year Newcastle are a better team.  I was 5/4 so have to bet this.

£10 Millwall dnb 2.75 Sky
£30 norwich +3/4 1.84 sbo
£15 Charlton -3/4 1.83
£20 Posh -1/2 Evens Hills (shops only)

^^

How where we 2.42 ? I was suprised when I seen 5/4, congrats.

prolly based on Mark 'well, good form has to end some time, so I'll randomly pick home to Everton not away to City' Lawrenson's stellar predictions.

Same old Posh!

Concede first, concede another one quickly, nick one back before half-time and then turn it on facing the home fans. Last-minute winner. Amazing stuff.

Am I the only one who can't watch Soccer Saturday when Merson and Thompson are screaming?

Newcastle actually drifted to 6/4 after I bet them.  All on Betfair.

I think they are quality, hoped Lpool would score to see Tommo's reaction.

Any opinion on the boxing red? I fancy katsidis. Burns has done well but last few fights haven't been amazing and not sure if somebody at the top of their game would have been involved in that farce against Cook

I'm in the train on the way to the fight.  Trains seem a bit screwed up so hoping I am going to make it in time.

I think the old Michael Katsidis would walk straight through Burns but he is getting on a bit and looked recently like he is getting a bit weary and wa sprobably flattered by his result against Mitchell given problems in Mitchells private life at that time.  I think it might prove to be a decent fight but 4/67 Katsidis might prove to be a bargain but given doubts I won't be betting.  Can't see Georgie Groves getting beat in the other bout just hope I get there in time to see him.

Want Arsenal v Tottenham season match bet. Looking for 11-8 if anyone is interested

Three NFL bets all £15 @ 10/11

Seahawks +11
Broncos +7.5
Colts +6.5

Also had a speculative £5 Roy Helu first TD scorer based on Chip Richs post.

Bit of a touch this morning.  Was agreeing figures with one of the guys that gets me on and I thught he had my balance too high.  Turns out I told him to back the Falcons last night when I meant to bet the Colts.  Nice when it happens and I clearly run good this week but I need to be more careful.

Two bets this morning on the horses:

£15 Anna Arch 405 Carlisle @ 2/1 Paddys
£15 Aikman 255 Carlisle @ 11/4Lads

Was looking at the 2:55 last night and liked Aikman's debut. Jumped really cleverly and wasn't ridden hard when the winner quickened. Think they may overbet the fav. gl

Agree totally.  The bet on Aikman os all about how he jumped first time out and I don;t think they were too hard on it when beaten.  Cross keenan could obviously be anything but fto over fences faces a tough task against a jumper like Aikman.

£30 Bears +9 1.877

Your theory regarding Teams/individuals performing to a high level after a personal loss was proved no more so than in the Mahut v Ferrero match.
Mahuts 2 year old Nephew died last week and Mahut won 2-0.He also took out Tomic and Kubot easily in the qualifiers.

£20 Purdy to win tonights fight versus Colin Lynes by KO @ 13/8

Late one I have just noticed.

£30 Barcelona -2 11/10 to beat L'Hospitalet Copa Del Rey Paddy Power.  This is not asian handicap but the UK hcap where the tie is a loser

Its proving a bit difficult to keep up with this all the time but I will try and continue posting whenever I can.  Couple of horses today

110 Cheltenham
£10 e/w Time for Spring @ 5/1

220 Cheltenham
£15 e/w Uncle Junior @ 13/2

145 Cheltenham
£15 e/w Haventgotascoobydoo @ 8/1

winnar winnar

wp on Uncle Jr (didn't back it myself  >:()

Done a bit of NFL tonight:

£24 Clev -2.5 5/6
£11 Seattle +6.5 10/11
£11 Cincy +4 10/11

You could have had Seattle at Evs with me.

sent you a pm.

£30 Fidelis @ 5/4 3pm Folks

Expect this to be a lot shorter come racetime.

missed the boat on this one myself but apprently Villa reserves will be a strong side tonight against west brom, was 9/2 earlier.

Up to anyone else if they still thought there was any value left in it.

Had £15e/w Zamora fgs @ 7/1 Hills

Anyone get on the villa?

where did you find the info in the first place?

somebody told me...

you had a boyfriend...

£20 Dissent 550 Kempton

Have heard a well connected shrewd rugby punter is trying to back Graham Henry to be next England coach @ 4/1.  I am not a big fan of whispers etc but I have taken £10 @ 9/2 with Hills on the basis he probably has some info whether it is that he is the favoured runner or whether a favourite is about to pull out I figure it must be value.

Impressive levels of selectiveness recently buddy

too good BH

:-) - Tbh it gets a bit boring just posting selections and I hate aftertiming on prices so was finding it was becoming a bit too much like hard work.  Also I have a couple of new connections and stuff that it would be a bit unfair to post but I want to keep it going in some format.  Anyone got any thoughts on what they would want to read except for a constant stream of tips.  I am happy to post thins that I have bet that represent more interesting situations or where they are really good value but I can't get on and I obviously don't mind contributing to the NFL and horse threads.  To give you an example yesterday I had 18 bets on horses for a small loss on the day....that is a helluva lot of posting and it doesn't really achieve much on its own (for me anyhow).  What would you like to see?

More 66/1 winners plz.

LMAO...not a penny....I am going to bed to cry.  (in the NFL blog for those that don't read it normally)

What about bets that in your reckoning are very good value bets.

Thanks

Just the absolute steamers...

The ground is soft at Ayr for tomorrow currently and 'heavy rain' is being 'forecast' overnight. A 'precautionary' 'inspection' is scheduled.

How would you price up this meeting going ahead redarmi?

Did they ever get the problems with their drainage sorted?  if not it is probably each of two Chompy.  Did you go to Posh Saturday?  I was there and enjoyed it a great deal.  People say football is so much better these days with the flash new stadiums and out of town grounds etc but I don't know.  Posh is my favourite away trip every year and it is amazing just how close to the pitch you get.  You could actually see subs warming up laughing at the grief they were getting from the crowd.  Only one thing - I sat down this year and it sure ain't business class.  I have bruises on my knees from the seat in front.

Someone should check out Ayr abandonment stats over the last few years. It would make for interesting reading imo. Midweek one-day fixtures during the jump season always seem particularly at risk.

Yup, I was there alright. Atmos seemed a bit flat most of the way. Your lot are pretty toothless tbf. Sitting at London Road? Norrrr. Should've stood behind the goal where they held the 'KEEP POSH STANDI' banner.

Roffle @ Boyd getting the man of the match award. Got a few boos at our end. Zak and Taylor were a class apart. Oh, and we have the best keeper outside the Premiership without a doubt.

Yeah thought Boyd getting MOTM was a joke.  Robson was best for us but plenty of candidates.  You are right that we are toothless but we kept the ball well and don't concede much.  We desperately need a striker though.

I really have to bet Derby @ 5/2 with VC tonight.  On staking system it is a £30 bet.  Two days rest after a massive emotional win at Old Trafford and playing extra time I just really struggle to see how they can get back up for this game so quickly.  On basic talents of the two teams this would be a no bet but it just seems such a great time to play Palace that i couldn't not get properly involved.

You and your big bets cutting the price!  ;)

If you do fancy Derby to do well, on Coral goalfest instore coupon they're 5/2 to score 2+ goals.  2/1 most places online

Pretty unlucky with Derby, by far the better team- can blame me for that one- im 0/4 from stuff on this thread. Will post when backing them so you can reduce your stakes :)

Anyone know what time the FA Cup third round draw is? Wanna see who the mighty Posh will be going two or three down against before they start playing.

2.40 on itv1 acc to fa.com

Did you go to yesterday's game Chompy?

I had palpitations following it on internet updates.  My mates at the game came back emotionally drained, but happy.

Some cracking goals in there too.

Yuh I was there. Until it went 3-0, when I flounced out. Really should know better by now.

Your goals were all crackers but the first three were as a result of us having no midfield. Back four, two wingers, three strikers and Grant McCann. Sure made sense.

Then we bring on Tunnerers and Freckles and the game turns. First time I've ever questioned Fergie's team selection but didn't like it as soon as I got there. Esp with Lewis in for Jones.

Your lot were impressive, though, proper footballing team. Same as we are. When we have a midfield.

If we don't have Tunnicliffe, Frecks and McCann in from the start on Saturday Leicester will be out of sight by half-time.

I never understood why we let Grant McCann go, as he did a solid job for us and has seemed to be a key part of every team he's been to since then.

Yesterday brought back memories of a game in the mid-90s vs Ipswich when we were 3-0 with 5 minutes to play and managed to cling on for a 3-3 draw!  I feared the worst after 70 minutes, but was surprised to see that we scored the next one.

Sounds like we took 600 more fans to Peterborough than we did to Leeds the week before.  Nothing to do with the fact that it was £15 rather than £36, obviously, but a lot went for the rare opportunity to stand on terraces again!