blonde poker forum

Going to start a separate thread (as I am extra special) to chronicle my NFL degenerate activities this year, had a few ante-post bets already trying to get Will Hill to lay me a bet at the moment when I'm on I will post them up :D

Follow me at your peril, lay me for profit imo

This will be interesting, its always good to hear different opinions, I can't wait for Thursday for the first game!

Warts 'n all!!

Awesome.

I've had Lions to win the Superbowl @ 50/1, Lions to win their Division @ 6/1 and Atlanta to win the Superbowl @ 20/1.

DEEEEETROIT

big blue for it all @ 40.0
saints for it all @17.5
bears+giants to win north and east @ 21.0

I wont lie, I fully expect this thread to be as profitable, if not more so, than Nicos EW betting diary

Oooh,  nice thread... Out of interest is this something you have track record in and expect to do well at or are they just punts for fun from a balla?

GL either way

oioiii.

Little bits on:

Saints @ 17.5
Lions @ 46

and a muggy little acca to win their divisions on:

Lions
Saints
Arizona
Chargers

Don't want to hijack the thread but we only have 3 entries in this so far, and the spread version in particular is very relevant to all you potential NFL bettors out there.....


ESPN's site has finally gone live with their Pigskin Pick'em and Eliminator games, so I've set up blonde mini-leagues for these.  I played all of these last season and they run very well, so need very little administration.

Pigskin Pick'em is a straightforward predict the winner of each fixture (two versions, one with a spread, one without - you can enter one or both).

Eliminator is the same as the blonde eliminator played by some last season (pick a team to win each week, different team every week has to be used, get it right and continue to the next week & last man standing wins - although the software lets you carry on making predictions after this if you like).

Links to both games are below.  Basically, once you register a team (free) and create an entry you can choose to join a mini-league.  I've included the names and passwords for each of the blonde group's below.  NB: For Pigskin Pickem you have to create separate entries for each version (i.e. spread and non-spread) but you're allowed 3 entries in total on the site.  Just make sure you give them different names.

http://games.espn.go.com/pigskin-pickem/en/frontpage

Groups:

'blondepoker non-spread'  Password: tikay

'blondepoker spread'  Password: tightend

http://games.espn.go.com/eliminator-challenge/en/frontpage

Group:

'blonde eliminator'  Password: ironside


The plan is to have the leagues open to anyone who wants to have a go for bragging rights, hence the passwords being shown above.  If anyone's interested in playing for money then we can do this from within the free game, and I'll be happy to administer - just post in the thread to express interest.  I was thinking $20 for each game (similar to the Fantasy League) - winner take all if <10 players, maybe 75%/25% for 1st and 2nd if we get more than 10, but am open to suggestions on this.

No need to be an NFL expert to play these for nothing - you can basically make paper bets for the entire season.  Who knows, you may turn out to be a natural!

Please let me know if any problems signing up or finding these leagues.

Been on Houston for a while, NFL guys love them.

My aim is to be on the 1st touchdown Yankee we get home at work... Missed last years!

How good are the Raiders gonna be this year?

Still crap?

Meh

Ok so far not gone for much in the super-bowl market but had nibbles at these:

Pats £400 @7.6
Colts £140 @26
Chargers £150 @13.5
Lions £50 @40
Bears £40 @50

Don't really fancy the Chargers at this price, fairly confident they will drift after a terrible start and will get more on then but didn't want to miss the boat incase they actually start winning from the off.

Pats I massively fancy, the Jets couldn't be more overrated if they come out of the Division with just 5 wins it will probably be a fail. Hoping somehow they look shaky to start the season to press, might have more on after tomorrow anyway looking at saints/gb

Lions/Bears can see 1 of these 2 putting in a breakout season, just small interest bets.

Colts, 25-1 just seems ridic if Manning gets anything going will certainly trade shorter.

Ha Dubai is a comedian.

Had 1 decent bet so far, been a mission to get on with Hills but currently am at £650 EW on the Bills to be the lowest scoring team this season at 5-1 (1/4 top 3) cant see how they are ever getting out of the bottom 3 and should be clear faves over the Browns and the Panthers imo (they wont get points on the pats or the jets and few v the fins)

Open 8 Will Hill accounts, get on, get paid.

Tend to do ok, problem is when i get bored and the staking plan goes out of the window and i have 2k on something that i don't even fancy that much, hope is this blog will rein that in.

Thoughts on full tilt situation?

Do you like Ted Ginn Jr?

Any Ronnie Williams bets?

jones fancies the saints for his life tommorow. thoughts?

also, anyone seen the sky sports schedule? and who has the terrestrial coverage this year?

c4 have terrsetrial. jets cowboys this sunday

Is it 2009?

No longy, that's just my year of expertise with regard to nfl.

Just lumping on Buffalo for the Super-Bowl.

Surprised you like the Colts.  He is definitely out this weekend which suggests to me that it is serious and he probably won't be 100% for the first half of the season.  They are literally half the team when he doesn't play.  Think he could easily miss the first 3 or 4 games and they go 0-3 or something like that.

Yeah obv when i placed that bet it was pre the revelation, hence the price is now 40+ bit unfortunate :(

Managed to get another £400 EW on the bills, courtesy of the camel, punish him bills

whomever i owe currency too, if the pack win by 4.5 + youre getting paid, whomever owes me, if pack dont make the line im collecting

OK here we go, had a cheeky £100 on the Saints for interest/anti railing Trigg got 9/4 with boyles

Not Like - I am on GB at -4.5

Appreciate that mate, you gona ship my oner?

nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

any one know who sung the version of twisting the night away on the end credits?

Dang - just had a chunk on the Jets on the spreads on the back of them being headline tip from Sporting Life.  However just consulted this thread to be told they are bobbins :(

yeah but you were told that by lifelong jets hater flushy. he also thought the jets were overrated last season and the one before and they reached the championship game both times

I guess it's my fault for placing a bet on something I know nothing about :)  Always the best ones.

Not true year before I said they were massively underrated!

Can't find many bets I like so far.  Not seeing much value at the moment.

I do like...

Rams to win the NFC West @ 2.88.
Rams/Cardinals Straight Forecast @ 6.5
Jimmy Graham - Most TE receiving yards @ 16/1

For the weekends games

I think Washington are too big at 2.4 at home vs the Giants (prefer the straight bet to the spread +3).  I don't think they'll be as bad this year as everyone expects and the Giants have a lot of injuries.
Rams are too big at 2.9 at home to the Eagles, but probably prefer the spread at +4.5, +5 in some places.  I can see the Eagles starting slowly until they sort out their O-Line issues and the dream team hype has gone too far.  I think they get better as the season progresses.


Thought I'd find more out there that I liked, but struggling to find any value so far.

fair enough, thought you'd said it then too

Haven't had a full look but really don't fancy anything tonight, will be watching Steelers/Ravens then Chargers/Vikings

My cockle on the Bills @ 400/1 for this year's SB is looking goooooooood.

Fair effort to have antepost bet dead after week 1- at least my Hills account wont get flagged anytime soon! :)

:(

At least Newton is lighting it up :D

yeh great bet demps

What price were Bills most points this season?

4/6 after demps got on the least

lol no team runs more above ev than the Jets it's ridic

luckily got on the cowboys +6 if i was on ML id be steaming so hard right now

Jets squeak it.  That would have been an early blow after buying Superbowl and Divisional Indicies.  They didn't look very good though :(

love it so much. jets doing what the jets do, sometimes I wish we'd turn up in the first half and make things easy but guess that'd take all the fun out of it

Happy 49'ers started with a win, any experts on how the team is this year?

Prognosis not great.  Yesterday was one of the few games you'll be expected to win this season, only because Seattle are so bad this year.

The obvious problem is quarterback, where Alex Smith is back for another year, despite being a huge disappointment (he was No1 overall pick a few years back) and will no doubt get massive stick from the fans sooner rather than later.  They drafted Colin Kapaernick as his likely successor but he looked poor in pre-season and is obviously not ready to start.

Frank Gore aside, there aren't many weapons in the offence, so they'll struggle to score points (NB: two of last night's scores were from kickoff and punt returns from Ted Ginn).  Defensively, they're a little better, more middle of the pack than at the bottom end.

They didn't do a great deal in free agency this year, and it looks like new coach Jim Harbaugh is building slowly for later years.  They'd be a contender in the 'suck for Luck' stakes (Stanford QB Andrew Luck being the likely No1 draft pick next year, and touted as the most pro-ready college QB since Peyton Manning).  However, they'll struggle to lose enough games for this simply down to the fact that they're in the worst division in the NFL, the NFC West.  The Seahawks have QB issues of their own, Arizona is rebuilding with Kevin Kolb this year (so a bit of an unknown quantity) so only St Louis look to have any sort of stability and should win the division comfortably (got 2/1 on them doing so, which feels huge to me).

Gut feel is that you're heading for 4-6 wins this season, and probably 3rd place in the division.  I think St Louis win it with something like an 8-8 record (which is still better than last year when Seattle won it with 7-9!)

PS: I don't claim to be an expert by replying, but I don't mind putting up a prediction for it to be shot down in flames later on.

Thanks man, seems another year of pain for us 49ers fans! lets hope your wrong :)

Seattle looked especially gash.  Every single time Red Zone went to the game SF were on the goal line. 

i think the play here, is to just go against everything flushy says in this thread, i guarantee it will show a loss

If only you had money, then you could just lay my bets

if only you post thoughts on every match i would soon get there

Unlike you I don't bet every game like a blind idiot....

Might be why i have money....

As you asked though I do have a big fancy for tonight, Pats -7 @20/21 is insane, sadly I won't be on as they are playing the fins. I really hope I'm wrong but I envisage us getting hammered tonight.

Think line should be 3.5 more, they easily 2/3 scores better than us.

I am a Dolphins fan too but I disagree about tonight.  Laying 7 points on the road on MNF in the first game of the season would be the combination of just about every bad/mug bet type I could think of.  For me over the years the key to winning punting on the NFL is to hold your nose and take the bets that look the worst.  More than almost any other sport being a contrarian pays in the NFL and tonight the contrarian view is definitely the Dolphins.

I hope you are right and know you are a very shrewd punter but I just can't see it, the Pats know our team better than almost any other, the shorter leadin time to the season has seen teams scoring more points as the D's are finding it harder than the O as such a great unit such as the pats will surely walk all over us.

I agree with you in principle with regards to betting against the tide, its just not strong enough today :D

I think this factor is being overstated. teams only lost 1 preseason game in which their starters would probably have seen virtually no game time anyway

Not worried about the preseason games, more the drills/plays/reps they didn't get to do in practice. A lot of high scoring games in week 1 which is obviously what you want to see if you are taking a team with a handicap

Only 1 game under 40 pts

all about big chad tonight!

11/09/2011 05:16:05   Buy    £10.00    480.00 POINTS BUY   RESULT 523.00   Total Points (12 GAMES 6PM & 9.15PM)   +£430.00

 ;)

anyone see the clip about the Pouncey brothers, great story.

Had a little punt on the spreads buying TD minutes for Rob Gronkowski @ 16.

He's the more likely red zone target compared to Hernandez, so there's a reasonable chance he scores at least once.  The downside is limited so worth a little punt.

Also done the same bet on Willis McGahee @ 14 in the 2nd game.  Historically he's been a touchdown vulture and the Broncos will be much more of a run-based offense under John Fox this season so I expect him to get a few opportunities around the end zone.  It's not relevant to the bet, but I think McGahee will get a greater share of the workload rather than being a pure backup/3rd down back behind Moreno this year.

It the sort of bet where I could easily be waking up to 2x nil points, but I think they're both up there as likely scorers tonight.

These damn comms have got me thinking we can win now, sigh false hope

Ha just glad the Chargers managed to muster an Osprey for their flyby and we managed a B2, if only we got points for such things, sigh

Well we got spanked, I said Brady would get 400+ somehow he manages 500+!

Loads of positives to take from the game though, Henne looked excellent, Bush looks an exciting addition. Hartline/Marshall are going to get more room and Fassano looks as good as ever.

I feel a lot better about the season than I did before this game, our D will get a lot tighter and we won't play an O that good, 10-6 please

Bless you Flushy! I would be very very suprised if we have a winning season, we played ok tonight and Henne played well for his standard (still struggle to think of many worst starting qb's in the NFL). We are a 5/6 win team this year imo, I would sell my own Grandmother for 10 wins.

boom got the line double, up [  ] wp kyle orton

You can thank me now Rick

I wouldn't be a fan if i didn't get irrational :D

Had £50 @ 125-1 with Spinks on the Fins, always end up betting them to freeroll a superbowl trip should the impossible happen

Sam Cooke

yeah found it on you tube, best version by a mile, great old tune. thanks anyway.

dallas -3 @ sf looks good to me this week, 10/11 skybet.

Nick still do his blog with NFL tips?

Yeah picked that out and a few others already. Looks like some good bets ahead :)

had these bets for weekend all road teams


jags +9.5
raiders +4
bucs 7/5
texans 4/6
cowboys -3

Raiders outright/+3.5
Ravens -5.5
Tampa out/+3
Dallas -3
Pats -7????

These are my early standouts, going to watch all the games they played this week and their opponents games and see if something still stands out. Pats/Chargers already done this am going to wait on team news

Have £200 so far on Raiders @ 2.6 few more coming shortly :D

So

£200 @ 2.6 Raiders with the Camel
£200 @ 2.3 Tamps with Boyles
£200 @ 1.95 Ravens -5.5 with VC
£200 @ 2.0 Dalls -3 with SkyBet

I've got faith Demps so am on them as an  acca for a score!!

least oakland have quite a few guys to catch the ball...

Oh ffs

That sounds ominous :D

On Ravens -5.5 and Dallas -3 @ 19/20 & Evens Stephens

Golf.....I'll copy Palmer, but for NFL you're the man.  Good weekend footy, Spurs Rangers double todays so spinning up on your NFL selections

rofl @ bh being the man.

im on

Dallas -3 sgl
Bills -3 and Ravens -5.5 dbl

lets gogogo.

I am THE man

Bills, Skins and Ravens for me

Steelers -14

Pats -7

Jets -8.5

Ravens -5.5



Cowboys -3

Texans -3

Eagles -3

then again, why would you need recievers with Dmac and Bush.

Moore though...

Robbed imo

jones sending us all into a grave with cowboys

Ravens fked me tonight s hajkklgse

Oioi Dallas back in the game

..Sigh

Indeed ;frustrated;

FUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK

1 YARD FROM SOMEHOW BINKING.

Yeah nice celebration dickhead, does he not know the whole world was on -3

If that mug didn't have that predator hairdo he might have been aerodynamic enough to make that extra fucking yard.........

sigh done me for a monkey the fucker

£100 on rams at 3.9 just to anti rail big blue

I played Rams too on the moneyline...seems a little big to me although probably very marginal but if I am going to stay up.....

comedy of errors tonight, both sides really gonna struggle, good for the cardinals, once we ship past the seahawks, we gonna piss this league, anyway im in early for this weeks fixtures


lions -3.5
dolphins +2.5
jets -3.5
cardinals -3.5

trebles and an acca

Action Man - I bought Cardinals on their league index.  Need them to come 1st for good win, and 2nd is a small loss.  Was pretty gutted when they lost late to Washington, and then SF went 14-0 up.   Looks better now though.  You think they look good for that division?

im a rookie to nfl mate, only been really into in for 2-3 years, im learning though. Best asking tighty, gatso, sherrif [  ] flushy.
Prob gonna boil down to how we do in our divisional match ups, first of these being vs the hawks on sunday.

Seattle have looked terrible so far.  Got to fancy a win in that one.

Got 12/16 picks right against the spread on Pigskin Pickem.

Managed to place 2 of my 3 bets this weekend on the games I got wrong.

I rock!

seriously, I'm completely clueless on anything not involving the jets and blinkered on anything that does right now. I've read nothing about the league this year, will probs start getting involved from about week 6 when I've had time to study a bit

Mentioned in the same sentence as Tighty on NFL - I can die a happy man now!

Slightly concerned that after 2 games the bills are the highest scoring team, not the lowest...

FWIW, I thought Arizona were a fairly safe second place in the division prior to the season starting.

On my pre-season predictions I had:

Rams 8-8
Cards 7-9
49ers 4-12
Seahawks 3-13

(NB: It's nickname of the NFC Worst is pretty spot on!)

So far, I'd say that the Seahawks are every bit as bad as I expected, the 49ers are a little better (maybe a 5-6 win team), and the Cards are about as I expected them to be (much better than last season, but will have a transition with Kolb at QB).

The Rams aren't as good as I expected, but they've been hit with injuries to key players already - Jackson and Amendola in particular.  I think they're a better team than the first 2 weeks results have suggested but they need to stay healthy.

I think the Cards have a shot at the division, and I'm struggling to see them finishing any worse than 2nd.  A lot depends on whether Beanie Wells can step up at RB now that Hightower has gone.  He's failed to live upto expectation so far in his career.  They need a genuine threat from the running game to take some of the focus from Fitzgerald as he's their only legitimate offensive threat.  Without this, the opposition can just game plan to shut him out of the game (or at least shut him down as far it's possible to do so) and take their chances against the other targets.

Thanks Sheriff - good write up.

My total postion is buy Cards, sell 49ers.  So obviously I get killed if SF come first and Cards come nowhere, but I'm quietly happy with my position.

The Rams are probably available pretty cheap after their 0-2 if you still think they are the standouts, and they are only 1 win behind.  Seattle look almost a non-runner.

I think it´s way too early to draw any meanigful conclusions. More so than any other sport, in American Football how specific teams match up against eachother is absolutely key and this skews any attempt to work out conventional form lines. I like your bet as far as it is possible to at this stage but I can also see them losing to the Seahawks. 

hmm - I'm new to this sport really, but from my viewing of the first 2 weeks I am going for the below this Sunday:

Packers -3.5 away to Chicago
Rams + 4.5 home to Ravens
Lions - 3.5 away to Vikings

Might have  chunky little trixie on these.

Any thoughts on these selections?

going for:

Atlanta +1.5 @ 10/11
Broncos +7 @ 10/11
Dophins @ 6/5

take a look at Oakland +3.5 against the Jets

Quite a nice trend, improving home team underdogs against Away teams travelling across the country

Oakland are competitive, and it should, famous last words, be close defense dominant game


I like the Broncos bet too


I can live with backing the Lions at odds on, but the Cards at the Seahawks, no not yet

hmm - yes I thought about the Jets one, but they looked pretty good last week, whilst the Oakland meltdown at the Bills was disappointing so decided to cross that one off.

Think you'll be surprised at the jets approach to this game. Looks like ryan's trying to move away from a pure defensive game, for the first time since taking over (I think) he choose not to defer last week. 400 yarder coming up from Sanchez


Last line may be optimistic

Yes I agree the Jets want to open it out/ and have more confidence in Sanchez. Just don't see too much young skill position talent there. Burress, Mason, LT etc are all fine contributors but not going to stick 400 yards on you combined with Sanchez

think they are probably a draft away from having that explosiveness to rack up points on the better defences

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/pfts-week-three-picks-2/

Nice site - thanks :)

Man, i would love to have a clue what you lot were talking about. Some of these odds look tastey. If i had to follow one person who should it be?

Ignore my picks.  I'm a rookie.

Tighty has the track record of studying it for several years, plus he's used to taking flak :)

Looking for reasons right now not to back these:

pats -7
1.95 VC


saints -3.5
1.95 VC


dolphins o/r
2.15 boyles


titans -7
1.95 VC


raiders o/r
2.43 paddy


tampa -1.5
2.0 boyles


colts +10.5
1.95 vc

I think the Colts are a great bet +10.5, I´m having a small bet on the Seahawks at 33/20 with Ladbrokes as well.

Saints line looks good

what's o/r?

outright

Colts I will sort later thinking about even playing the outright :D

Otherwise:

£200 Oakland @2.42 with Paddy
£200 Miami @2.15 with Boyles
£200 Tampa -1.5 @EVENS with Boyles
£200 Pats -7 @1.95 with VC
£200 Saints -3.5 @1.95 with VC


Quite com last week was 4 bets, most i've had on a sunday and this week i top it....also first time in about 2 years ive had a bet on Miami

I will take your Colts bet no juice if you decide you want it..  (the hcap bet, not the outright!)

I'd say the much better bet is the 3.25 available on oakland/oakland. there's no way the raiders win if trailing at half time so the only way your bet is live is if they've got a first half lead

COME ON THE JETS

second treble:

NYG+9
DET-3.5
BUF+8.5

Mug punt:

Lions -3
Saints -3.5
Panthers -3
Titans -7

Trebles and up  ;djinn;

Looks hard to me this week.  Colts +10.5 must be an overreaction though.

I'm over reacting.  I'm offering the points and evens.

skysports hd4 free this weekend for all regardless of your normal sky package

If you want to lay it I will take up to an even hundred.....

Booked when you confirm:

You get Colts +10.5 pts, even money £100

Confirmed.

I give up, sport must be rigged

How did the Dolphins manage to lose?  Didn't I see them leading by 6 with 46 seconds left?

wtf? there's a spike sticking out of the pitch @ chicago, game stopped

hmm, forgot to account for what would happen if jets were tied at ht. stupid bloody game

I had HT/FT result Raiders... :(  ah well

We crushed all game just forgot to get points, its a total joke

Robbed not to scoop imo how pats give up 21-0 lead is beyond me and Miami should have won by 14

You say that but they clearly capable of coming back as they were 10pts down

Simon still laying colts +10.5 @ evens?

Never mind got 200 at 2.05 with VC

So steamed up about this, Browns drove 80 yards with about 4 mins on the clock and scored with about 30 secs left.  Sure didn't embarass myself with a girly tantrum in the sports book sweating the game.

I am already sold on sucking massively (1-15 will do) and getting Andrew Luck in at QB. Quite like the win next week as I will be in San Diego for the fins vs Chargers game.

Apparently Manning has direct headset feed into Collins tonight......not sure I like that.

No Probs - price has moved so it worked out better for you.  I was gonna punt the steelers, hence it made more sense for us both to get evs.  Redarmi took some, so everyone is in action.

Henne looking much better, taken some time but he's finally speeding up to the nfl

Not a bad day in the end, just the 15k or so the WCOOP cost me today but winning on the NFL is much sweeter...

Wd - lmk payment options, or take it to PM if you prefer.

Decent night, Seattle have the best defence in the division and if they can get anything going offensively they might just get it done again in what is a lolbad division.  I like Washington getting 3.5 tonight.

Dolphins cost me a right few quid.

Last let of a treble and then get beat right at the end :(

What a weekend - was counting my £2k footie accumulator as well and then Leyton Orient equalised in injury time.  :(

Managed to make a small profit last night despite hitting a stop loss on one spread bet (bought the Pats on a supremacy index that included turnovers, as Brady is fairly secure on that score - oops!)

My Bankers Treble on Sporting Index - Titans, Chargers, Raiders.

Singles on Seahawks and Raiders outright.

Also had a treble on Browns -1.5, Lions -3.5 and Saints -4.  Half point losses are so tilting, especially when there's 2 of them in the same bet!!

At least the betting went better than the Fantasy Leagues.  Nothing makes up for watching the Eagles stink it up to the Giants on live TV though.

any1 have an opinion on 2nite?

on roy helu first td @ 25/1 and anytime @ 4/1

The original line was something like Dallas -6, which was ridiculous as these games are generally close.  This was presumably down to Romo, Bryant and Felix Jones possibly being out, although I expect all to play now.

Washington +3 @ 2.05 still appeals to me, as does the outright at 2.5, although I'm waivering more and more as the day progresses.

The Helu bets are interesting ones, as he showed a lot of potential in his debut, so not sure what Washington have planned at RB in workload split between him and Hightower.  Even if Hightower gets the majority of carries, I think Helu might get the goalline carries.

In general, there's a lot of uncertainty who's going to be starting tonight, so I think I'll wait until the inactive list is out before deciding what bets, if any, to have.  I like Washington's chances to win a close game even if all the maybe's end up playing for Dallas.  If it turns out that Kitna is going to be throwing to Kevin Ogletree and Jesse Holley, and handing off to DeMarco Murray then I really like their chances, although the odds would shift if that turned out to be the case.

Be interesting to get Tighty's view's as a Cowboy fanboy.

Sorry  :( - and thanks for the Colts pick, makes me feel worse

Forgot to add in my last post, the main reason for my concern with Dallas is how effectively Romo can play with a fractured rib and a week after puncturing a lung.  He's going to be wearing the same Kevlar armour that Vick used last season when he broke ribs, but Vick was out for a few weeks in between and I suspect that the Washington D-Line will be getting up close and personal early on tonight to give him a little test or two.

You have to figure there's a fair chance that he doesn't make it through the whole game and I doubt he's going to be 100% effective anyway.  That being said, he managed to come back into the game and play with the injuries last week!

i love washington tonight on the ML

Should be very close. I like the underdog skins for two reasons. 1 Dallas often choked in the clutch and 2 not sure the Dallas offense can have any continuity with the fitness concerns and lack of run game

Apologies if this sounds a bit condescending but nobody should be taking +3 2.05 when there is plenty of +3.5 1.88 available.  +3 1.88 is about equal to +3 2.15 maybe even a bit bigger.  Over an NFL season that is the difference between winning and losing... I like the Skins +3.5 tonight and wouldn't be put off by the move from +6 as the difference is very small, it doesn't in any way represent a big move.  The cowboys are as close as the NFL gets to having a MU and on Monday nights they will always be overbet and they really don't look very good this year.

not sure this is true, they are a 9-7 type team at worst. Weaknesses for sure but competitive. The defence could be very good and will keep them in a lot of games

That said, I still don't think they are any value tonight

Haven't watched a MNF game for a long time, where can I watch the Skins go to 3-0 in the UK?

My comment might have been a bit harsh for the season but not for tonight.  #30 running offense in the league with only 55 ypg and Austin out and Romo playing with cracked ribs to limit the pass offense tonight makes me wonder where the points will come from tonight.....starting to talk myself into a bet on unders now.

Gone for Washington +3.5.

Also, a couple of punts on the spreads

Helu/Murray Rushing Yds - Buy @ 5
Cowboys TD Shirt Nos - Buy @ 165

See how long I can stay awake for to sweat them.  I'll set the line at end of 1st Qtr.

This is fucking shite

Both these teams seem to think they have scored when they reach the 20 yrd line.

Get in. Great win with no offence. Defense going to be gooooood

not one fucking place.

Roy Helu, did not turn into Daniel Thomas sigh, had a small feeling he might.  Eventually it will!

ROY HELU, HELU, HES BETTER THAN ME OR YOU, HES GONA SCORE ONE OR TWO, ROY HELU, HELU

Sigh, field goal fest!

Another reason to add to the 'why I hate the Cowboys' list.

Anybody got any fancies for Week 4 yet, or is discussing this on a Wednesday not cricket? :)

Jax and Cin look okay to me but haven't looked at injuries yet.  Also my initial line for ind@TB was 13 and it has opened 10 so Bucs look decent.  I have a suspicion that Indy's defence won't be anything like as solid on the road.

what do you think the NO@JAC line should be?  I was liking the saints side quite a bit until you said that.  Any reasons in particular?

I do like the steelers to beat up Houston this week, got on @ 9/5 on the m/l.

I like Detroit +1.5 @ Dallas, especially with Dallas on a short week.  Just gone for this on Betfair at 2.02.  Bookies are offering 1.91 so virtually the same odds depending on your commision rates.

Was looking out for the NE@OAK line for a bit of potential value, but OAK +4 isn't tempting me compared to OAK@2.95 with Bwin on the outright.  Still feels like a bit of a punt but NE's defence is suspect and Oakland are under-rated so I think there could be a surprise here.  I'd feel better about it (and I'm sure there'd be more value) if both hadn't just done the same thing in Wk3 (NE losing unexpectedly and OAK beating a fancied team at home).  It has the makings of a shootout so maybe the over 53.5 points with Unibet is the best value.

The line that does perhaps look 'out' to me is IND +10 @ TB on Monday Night Football.  I think Tampa Bay win, but not convinced that they cover this.  They showed signs of improvement vs the Steelers so not convinced they suck quite as badly as in Wks 1&2.

Not many places giving odds on SF @ Philly but the line looks to be around -7.  Lots of uncertainty about who plays QB but Vick isn't ruled out as yet as his hand isn't broken, as first thought.  However, if he does play I'm not sure he finishes the game, he's looked poor anyway this season, and there's no news as to whether Vince Young or Kafka would be the backup (common sense suggests Young, but not a certaintly with Andy Reid).  A few weeks ago I'd have expected this to be a blowout, but I'm less sure now.  It might be a closer game than expected, particularly as the Eagles are v weak vs the run and conceding yards to Tight Ends.  It just so happens that Frank Gore (apparently he'll be fit to play) and Vernon Davis are the 49ers two most potent offensive weapons.
Might be worth monitoring through the week to see what happens with this one.  If Vick is confirmed as a likely starter then there might be some value on the SF side.

Very surprised at how short Houston are on this.  They do look a legit contender and the Steelers have O-line issues, but they're the Steelers.  Would not be the least bit surprised if they spring a massive upset (and with the odds as they are, that's the only way to describe it).

It just feels wrong talking about them in those terms, which suggests that there's some value there.

Just had a quick look at the Superbowl Outright market on Sporting Index and found a few bets I liked.  I think there's been a bit of over-reaction in some places and not enough in others.

(100pts win, 70pts RU, 50pts lose Champ Conference, 33pts lose Div Play-Off, 20pts Wild Card, 0pts everything else)

Bought Chicago @ 5

Yes, they're 1-2 and there are 2 teams at 3-0 already but they've played genuine contenders in every game so far.  Battered Atlanta, lost to New Orleans and Green Bay who are the clearly the best two NFC teams.  This price has basically written them off already and it should start to creep up, particularly if Detroit have a loss or two in the next few weeks.  It's also possible, albeit unlikely, that 3 teams could make the playoffs from this division.

I've bought with the expectation that I can lay it off at a profit later in the year as things start to normalise.  No way are they a bottom 10 team as this price suggests.


Sold San Francisco @ 15

They've made a decent start at 2-1, but won vs weak teams in Seattle & Cincinnatti and lost to Dallas, who are probably and 8-8, 9-7 ish team this year.  The NFC West is unpredictable due to it's mediocrity and I wouldn't rule any of them out of it just yet.  Arizona are inconsistent, Seattle have a big homefield advantage at QWEST field and last week showed that they can pick up wins there against 'better' teams.  I had high hopes for the Rams but they made a bad start and are beat up, but could still pick up momentum if they beat Washington this weekend.

Worst case, as I see it, is that the 49ers win the division and lose the Wild Card game so I think this bet has limited downside and plenty of upside.  It's probably one I'll have to sweat out as the NFC West will go down to the wire due to the general mediocrity.

Bought Oakland @ 13

Was looking hard at selling San Diego @ 33 but that scares me a little as the Chargers are generally a team who gain momentum and, unlike the 49er bet, they have the potential to go deep in the playoffs.  However, they haven't looked great so far (standard for Norv Turner in the early weeks) but they will lose a big part of their offensive threat if Antonio Gates' injury problems persist.  Oakland have looked a far better outfit than I expected so far this season, play hard, and will be tough to beat.  I think they have the potential to at least run the Chargers close in the AFC West and could well end up as a Wild Card team in the AFC so don't necessarily need to win the division to hit the 20point level.  They went 6-0 in the division last season (and still failed to make the playoffs).  They lost their star player in free agency, but I think they're a better overall team this season, especially without the QB controversy of last year.

Feedback/thoughts/abuse all welcome  ;scarymoment;

I made it 5.5 but i got +7 and bought that up to +7.5 5/6 which is a fairly big advantage and through a key number.  It certainly isn't a big opinion and is just based off my ratings so no big reason other than that and the key number.  i normally need  2.5 points to bet but if it goes through 3 or 7 and smetimes 10 I might bet with less.  Liking the 49ers +9 too.

steelers 7/4 6pm
49ers + 9.5  6pm
giants 13/15 9pm
lions 5/4    6pm


trebles + acca

I like the selections.

The Eagles market did what I expected once Vick announced he was 100% to play.  I think the +9.5/+10 line is too big, given his injury and poor form so far.

bills -3.0
steelers +3.5
chargers -6.5

fancy Green bay -12 as well but decided to leave it alone

opinions?

Incredible comeback from the Lions!  Gives me a sweat to go forward.

49ers +10 GOOD (Didn't think they'd actually win the game, FML!)
Carolina +6.5 GOOD
Lions +2.5 GOOD
Giants -1
Raiders +6

4 folds and acca only, so still need one of them to come in.

can't believe i have a sweat, but need cards to lose to win, so win win really, were pretty much cooked anyway if we lose

in the late game im on boldin FTD/LTD/ATD

weee amazing comeback from the 49ers 3-1 :)

I had a right result - put my £50 trixie on the 9pm games after busting at the Metropole, got home - put scores up and played a few tournes.  Got deep in the Supersonic, stopped looking scores and was chatting to Brummie....Packers and Chargers relatively safe, but Giants well down and Im on at -2.

Bust supersonic, log onto Bet365 to have my c£180 return on late game and the blance shows £900 plus - oi oi - giq and all that

Have never bet on a non superbowl game before but thanks to the above analysis I had a small piece of this.

Cheers!!

Not sure if this is any use to anyone or not.  Just wondered if some people had trouble moving money around (i.e. getting it off certain places and on to others just to chase half a point, or simply don't have accounts with all the layers) when it came to having a modest bet.

I'm also a complete noob on NFL but starting to get into it, so thought until I know my own way around, I may as well have a sweat by standing picks. You can have best price from oddschecker (B&M books, not Betfair/Betdaq etc) and you can pay from various poker sites/e-wallets etc if you have dormant/awkward funds you want to shift.

I'm obv not guaranteeing to stand all bets, but PM me (or IM links in my profile) if that's of interest.

Interesting read...

I'm not exactly sure when the National Football League went off the rails for me, when watching the games became an exercise in eyelid-propping. It was before this year, but a game this season brought it all home. Why is the NFL overhyped, over-commercialed and downright dull?

Go back to Monday, Sept. 12, Broncos-Raiders. Here's an isolated sequence from that thriller:

Oakland ball, inside the Denver 5-yard line. Timeout.

Commercial.

Oakland scores on the next play, a touchdown pass.

Commercial.

Oakland kicks off.

Commercial.

Denver fumbles on first down. A challenge occurs.

Commercial.

Oakland is awarded the football after the challenge. Oakland goes three-and-out. Oakland punts.

All together now: Commercial.

It took 10 minutes to run two plays, not including the kickoff. It took 15 minutes to run five plays. It did. I timed it.

Are we watching a football game or the Clio Awards?

For me with the NFL, the clock strikes Zzzzz earlier and earlier.

(In the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that I work in Cincinnati and have covered the Bengals for 24 years. This extended tour of hazardous duty could have colored my opinions somewhat.)

It's not just the ad time. You can fix that with a DVR. In fact, you can watch an entire NFL game on a DVR in exactly 24 minutes and 12 seconds. I did it. The problem with that is, Guy Next Door is sure to tell you who won before you get to the DVR.

When you combine the commercials with the time spent reviewing plays, the game loses its flow. It herks. It jerks. It lurches from did-he-have-possession-of-the-ball to did-he-cross-the-invisible-plane. Replay takes boredom "to the next level'', as they say. It is the Sominex of the sports world. In the interest of ridding a game played by humans, coached by humans and officiated by humans of all of its humanity, the NFL has created a product that on occasion is unwatchable.

And that's not even the worst of it.

The bigger problem is the NFL is mediocre.

Unless you're a fan of the Packers, Eagles, Chargers, Falcons, Ravens, the News (England and Orleans) or, heaven help me, the Detroit Lions, you are going to see some traumatically bad football. Sooner or later, you are going to wonder why you invested close to four hours of your life watching it.

Why do you think they don't sell out consistently in Miami or Tampa or, sometimes, San Diego? Why do you think the people in Los Angeles aren't nearly as thrilled about the NFL's return as the NFL is? They have nice weather in those places. They don't want to spend a 75-degree December day in a stadium or on a couch.

If you watch a game involving two young and/or bad quarterbacks, you're going to groan, sooner or later. If one team has a great QB, cut the groaning in half. On the rare occasions when it's Brady-versus-Brees or Rodgers-against-Rivers, settle in and enjoy yourself. Otherwise, prop those lids, brother.

Is this heresy?

Is it?

I will get e-mails that lovingly begin "Dear Idiot.' People will cite big TV ratings and (mostly) full stadiums. They will compare the NFL to Major League Baseball, even though I offered no such comparison. They will say that baseball makes stamp-collecting seem electrifying.

It is, I realize, practically un-American to rip the NFL.

Sorry.

TV ratings are boffo for America's favorite sport. They're also pretty good for American Idol. As reality TV goes, nothing beats the NFL. It's real, for one. But how do you stick with one lousy game for three hours and 15 minutes?

It doesn't help my cause that the season already has been marked by some amazing comebacks and lots of offense. Detroit winning at Dallas after trailing 27-3 showed how good the league can be. Problem is, it's not that good very often. It's more like the 13-8 skunk I witnessed two Sundays ago when the 49ers beat the Bengals.

I pitched this idea to my editor at SI.com. At first, he said it was lame. Actually, what he said was, "I disagree with your premise. It seems to me with the Red Zone channel and DirecTV, which allows you to flip around and focus on three good games, watching the NFL is a better experience than ever.''

Sure is, if you have ADD and eight eyes. Me, I like to finish what I start. Trying to watch several games at once -- or with Red Zone, real-time highlights at a warp speed -- makes me dizzy. It's like voting for the Best Picture by watching the trailers.

Gamblers and fantasy players might be hooked. I'm not, especially.

Melodrama has replaced the real variety. Because the real stuff isn't compelling enough to keep us thrilled, we hear ad nauseam about Michael Vick ripping officials or Tony Romo blowing off Jerry Jones or in-depth analyses of Jay Cutler's manhood. ESPN should have given Brett Favre his own primetime hour.

I spent last fall watching Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco. They were far more interesting off the field than on it.

In the meantime, the league suffers, as always, from an innovation deficit. One team's off-tackle left is the same as any other's. Heaven forbid that a coach might do something different, such as eschewing punts and using all four downs in all but the most reckless situations. You think baseball managers live and die by The Book? They're Fellini compared with football coaches, who are deathly afraid of losing their jobs by challenging convention.

Very few teams are a joy to watch. The NFL's socialism has seen to it that every team has a chance to be mediocre. Almost all take full advantage. The league discourages personality, so with few exceptions, the players are dull.

I used to look forward to the Bengals' bye week. Football on TV! All day! Then it was midnight. I'd watched games at 1, 4:15 and 8:30. And I thought, "what a waste of a day.''

And that was before two plays required 10 minutes.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/paul_daugherty/10/06/nfl/index.html#ixzz1a5NGfSw9

BIG TIME

Best spectator sport by miles for me. I love it, with or without a bet.

Al Davis just passed away

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7074380/oakland-raiders-owner-al-davis-dies-82

He became a bit of a standing joke in recent years, due to his interference in team issues and influence on draft picks (Darrius Heywood-Bey being the obvious example) but he had a huge influence on the NFL for decades and played a major role in its development into today's behemoth.

Definitely a 'character', that's for sure.

Only person to have played, scouted, coached and owned I believe

Davis was a great owner - except the last few years. RIP.

bit quiet today, looks tough to me also.

had single on eagles -2 and thats pretty much it. anyone spotted anything?

Broncos +3.5

Atlanta +5.5

both decent to beat the favourites at home

I´ll be on Atlanta at a fair enough looking 11/5, not standout value by any means but I expected them to be a very good side this year and think they´ll be very motivated tonight. If they can get any sort of pass rush going (a big if from what we´ve seen so far this year) they´ll be in business, big night from Turner as well please.

I took Cincinatti +2.5 when the early lines came out and the line is now -1, -1.5 so I obviously wasn't the only one.

Also tempted by Tampa Bay +2.5 and Tennessee +3.5, but will decide nearer kickoff.  Don't like betting against the Steelers at home generally, but they're banged up and have big O-line issues so I think Tennessee might have a shot.

Backed:
Denver +4 @ 19/20
Tampa outright @ 2.44

Still deciding on:
Eagles -2.5 @ 19/20
Carolina outright @ 3.9

had a fun little First TD lucky

dwayne bowe 7/1
owen daniels 8/1
lesaun mccoy 5/1
eric decker 10/1


you can get 7/1 in places or mccoy first TD seems great value

Colts are favs presumably due to home advantage and hanging with the Steelers last time.  But in a game which may be a shocker, I like taking the odds-against available on the money line on Chiefs.  I have no clue tho so I'm sure they will get hosed.

As per my previous post a few spots up ^^ I am happy to stand a few bets also...

Mendenhall out for Pitt. With that and a terrible OL (Max Starks starting who was on the streeet a week ago) I like the Titans a lot, even away

 

and all is not happy in Steeler land

RossTuckerNFL Ross Tucker
Several Steelers I spoke to pre-game laughed or rolled eyes when I told them about Big Ben's limp/walk into locker room. He's fine

Any where you can watch the games?

Been using p2p4u.net but it just freezes all the time.

Try www.atdhenet.tv although occasionally the games go down late.

Cheers mate, seem to have a perfect stream for Saints, The novelty of American adverts being on has well and truly worn off.

Somethign strange going on in the NFL this year.  I just went trhough every game and only counted 14 games so far with total points under 37 points.....must be somethign at play....anyone got any ideas?

Generally reckoned the long lock out has defenses undercooked. Add to that tougher interference rules on dbs

changes in the passing game analysed here http://www.rantsports.com/dallas-cowboys/2011/09/28/nfl-compiles-more-passing-yards-touchdowns-points-than-any-season-in-history/

Tampa Bay destroyed by the 49'ers! on fire.

Hope your downside on this isn´t too big, it´s starting to look pretty ugly. Looking at the schedule there´s a pretty reasonable possibility they´ll get to week nine without winning again (bye week, then the Steelers, then the Ravens). Massive game in SF in week 11.

Thoughts On Bears vs Lions>?

Overs.

In the end I took the Tennessee bet, but didn't pull the trigger on Tampa Bay, figuring that the short-week and East-West travel didn't favour them.

Didn't expect both games to be quite the blow-outs that they were.  49ers definitely the surprise package so far this year, for me.  I put last week's win down more to the inadequacy of the Eagles but 48-3 vs Tampa Bay deserves some respect.

Steelers once again did what the Steelers usually do when they show signs of being vulnerable.  They're the NFL equivalent of Germany in International Football.

I think I like this too. over/under Quotes are around 40 are they not?

Of course the trend this season is for a lot of points

Stafford/Megatron and co will always put up points

Chicago have Forte to keep them in the game, and the Detroit secondary is the weakest part of the defence

Usually tempted in these divisional matchups to back the underdog. Chicago at + 5.5 but to me Cutler is the equivalent of a timeform squiggle...not to be trusted not to jack it in when it gets tough

Know diddly squat about this but checked on oddschcker and 47 seems to be the points line.

I think this game could be a lot closer than most seem to believe, being a divisional game on MNF, but the line at +5.5 isn't enough to tempt me to bet on it.  If the Lions get out of the gate quickly then it could turn into a blowout, especially if it forces Chicago to abandon the run fairly early on.  However, they've failed to do this in their last two games and have had to rely on making big comebacks so I'm not confident that it pans out like this.  Bizarrely, I think it's either a 14+ point blowout or will be within 3 points either way, so not much good to me for betting purposes!

I don't think there's any value in the O/U either as the line is 47-48 depending on where you look.  If anything I'd probably go under this if I had to choose, but I expect it to finish up right around this sort of range so not tempted in the slightest.

Line is 47.5, Detroit averaging 32 points a game against an overated Bears defense who are 30th against the pass and 31st in total yards given up, Megatron bound to have a huge game. Chicago finally able to run the ball last week, got big points/field position advantage from their special teams, makes it overs for me.

Just a question as I´m still very much learning about NFL betting. The first paragraph of this analysis ^^ (which I very much agree with) leads to me think that Chicago are probably value on the money line at 11/5. I was thinking along similar lines for the Atl/GB game but that didn´t go too well. It seems that in games where a team looks vulnerable to getting blown away but seemingly has an excellent chance in a close game the value lies in the money line rather than the points spread. Is my thinking along the right lines or am I missing something?

gonna have a punt on Overs, Chicago..., been using VC for donkeys, but fancy a change Matchbook or Betfair ? any other recommendations

Chicago ranked 30th against the pass is a bit misleading imo, they´ve played Rodgers/Brees and a Carolina passing offensive that is going very well. They´re no world beaters but 30th isn´t a fair reflection. Barring a post from Redarmi to the contrary I´ll be playing under on the points and Chicago on the money line.

oops Detroit  :)

Valid point, and I think someone like redarmi is far better qualified to comment on the value side of things than I am.  There's still too much gut-feel in the way I do things for my liking, so I'm no expert.

On this specific example though, even at the best price of 9/4, I'm not sure that I see Chicago coming out on the right side of things enough for me to be tempted.  Even in the close game scenario I discussed, my gut instinct is that I'd still expect Detroit to be the winner probably 70% of the time in those situations.  Combine that with the probabilities of the Detroit blowout and I'm not sure the price represents great value.

However, I'd completely disregarded the money-line when I wrote the above, so the argument itself has some merit.  I just don't think it applies particularly well to this game.

betting unders tonight, chicago D and useless cutler divisional game

I definitely prefer unders with the proviso that, as per my post yesterday, most games seem to be flying over.  Kush makes a very good point about Chicago not being anything like 30th against the pass.  The Camel pulled me up on a similar comment I made last night and it is a bit of a guess up at this point of the season as to what strengths the various teams have but this Bears team gave up more yards against the Panthers than any Bears team since 1982 so it is fair to say that isn't a strength of theres.  What isn't in doubt is that a) Detroit are a very good passing team this year b) haven't played in a nationally televised Monday night game for soemthing like seven years and will bring a massive amount of intensity tonight and c) know that the pressure is on in every game because they are in the same division as GB.  I can understand why the Lions have been backed but for the same reason that I have backed Johnson to score the first TD tonight I think that the Bears may do well defensively.  When a team has scored 8 of their 11 passing TD's through a single combination you would think that the Bears will be focussing strongly on stopping that particular play.  I think it is a no play game on spread and total to be honest which is why I have focussed on and bet slightly more esoteric markets and even then Bears under 21 bet is pretty much just a maths play more than a strong view.

overs...unders...overs...unders

Are people trading privately or is everyone really posting opposing picks here and then lining up to give bookies 11/10 both sides?

ill take the unders for £100 if anyone wants a to sweat the overs

gone for:

Pettigrew over 55.5 rcving yards (Staffords 2nd favourite target behind Megatron)
Lions to win by 7-12 points 9/2 (prob muggy but w/e)
Titus Young 1st TD 20/1 (decent price and is starting to play a key role in the offense after being targetted 20 times in the last 3 weeks - catching 12)

All fairly small for interest and i want the Lions to win for SB bet, lets goooooo Lions, lets go!

I'll play if nobody else wants to.  You have under 47 at Evens for a ton.  Just reply with booked to confirm.

cool booked

Pretty awful decision making from the Bears there.

Laid over 37.5 pts @ 1.28.

Won by the skin of my teeth  :)

Meh, not too bad. Won a bit on the game with the lions win by 7-12 points @9/2.  Shame Pettigrew didn't see it a bit more though.

shame they didnt score that meaningless TD at the end ;)

lolol, yeah i thought they would obv. Justice.

lucky boy :-)

Interesting opportunities on the NFL this week, the total points line has made an adjustment, quite appropriately to the freescoring start to the season. It is looking highly likely that there will be a major storm system centred right over the North East USA this weekend. The total points lines in the NYG (51 ladbrokes), NE (55 everyone), Baltimore (45 general) and Pittsburgh (40.5 general) games are all looking slightly on the high side to me but if the weather delivers as expected they look like absolute gifts.

I´ve spent a large part of the last 16 months sailing in/across the North Atlantic so my reading of it´s weather has become pretty good. It´s still a long way out to call it with high accuracy but I´ll be pretty surprised if the weather isn´t a big factor in these games.

Great spot.  I think the best way to bet these tends to be in multiples because if the weather hits one it should hit all so they are correlated but obviously that isn't taken into consideration in the prices which multiply as normal.  I also think that the trend in the overs can't continue without the teams making adjustments and it could be just about a (excuse the pun) perfect storm if that starts to hit this week too.  Will the bad weather hit by Saturday?  Obv college games represent an even better opportunity because they are closer geographically........

I don´t see it being there by Saturday. I should mention that the British Met Office who are actually quite good at assessing the weather over that side of the Atlantic don´t agree with my assessment at the moment. I´m pretty confident though. I´ll be going with the multiples. I guess I should have mentioned Green Bay and NYJ as well, might be a good weekend.

This week I like:

Saints -4
Pats -6.5
Raiders -6.5

If anyone wants the other side of any of that, let me know.

Also, Jax +12 is tempting me against Steelers.  Whilst Rams look horrible and Packers look good, +16 with ladbrokes is tough to pass up on.....

I definitely prefer Oakland.  No real view on Saints game so happy to offer you a bet there.  I do like Dallas but there is a bit of a seven available.  If you are want to do something where I bet 1.86 or so on Dallas +7 then happy to play there otherwise happy to leave it.  re:stakes nothing bigger than £100 on Saints.  Dallas happy to do more if you want @ 7.

We will cash in on the weather angle at some stage this year but there´s a high pressure pushing up from the south that might just screw us for this weekend, I won´t bother with the technical weather info (am happy to if people want).

I´m going small stakes unders on NE, GB, Baltimore and Pittsburgh games. It´s far from impossible the weather gives us a helping hand but these points lines look plenty high enough anyway. Trebles and up with Betfred or Boylesports who have a couple of half points here or there that could be crucial.

Thanks, we can leave the Pats game alone np.

I get Saints -4 £100 @ Evs with you, confirm to book it?

Confirmed mate.

At the start of the week I thought the zero line on Washington at home to the Eagles was wrong, but it's now moved to Washington +1.5, which I think is just silly.  I expected it to move during the week, but in the other direction!

I'm guessing the market is waiting for the Eagles' fightback, and there's a element of logic in it (and as a supporter I desperately hope it comes) but the cold, hard facts so far this season is that this team is fundamentally flawed on defence and the offence is committing far too many turnovers (many of them purely down to Vick) to be able to overcome this.

Washington are coming off a bye, will desperately want revenge for the prime-time battering in this fixture last season, are the best team in the league with regard to time of possession so will surely come out with a gameplan to eat up the clock with all 3 running backs in rotation and keep Vick off the field.  The Eagles have failed to stop the run all season and there's no reason to believe that they'll be able to start now.  Washington also have a solid defence, and I'm not confident that the turnover problem will be arrested just yet.

Simply put, there is no way a 3-1 team at home to a 1-4 team should be 1.5pt underdogs.  It's the same situation as last week, where the Bills were 2.5pt dogs, and the Eagles lost by 7 in that one due to a whole host of errors including turnovers, missed tackles, and bad clock management (an Andy Reid speciality).  Stupidly, I let my sentiment get in the way last week and couldn't pull the trigger.  I won't be making the same mistake this week.

There is tons of value on the Washington side here.  Maybe the Eagles do finally fix all their issues and turn in the performance level worthy of the 'dream team' (puke!) but this line says that they're likely to do it, and I just have no confidence that we'll see that happen on Sunday.

Disagree.

I posted on your facebook on Monday that Eagles +1 seemed ridiculous and I was quick to snap it up. Now at -1.5 I can see them going to -2 before the game starts.

As shocking as Eagles have been if you can cut out just a few mistakes you can get past a solid and well coached but ultimately poor in quality Washington side.

I think cutting out a few mistakes applies to the offensive side of the ball only, mainly Vick not throwing picks and the receivers/running backs not dropping and fumbling the ball when he does hit them in the numbers.  However, we have two fundamental problems that are more deep rooted and not easily fixable.

1) OLine - lots of personnel changes already this season, and still to find a settled line, which means that they've struggled to protect Vick in every game.  Kelce at center is a rookie, as is Danny Watkins at right guard, our first round pick who's only just been brought into the team after being benched following a poor pre-season.  The best player on the OLine was Jason Peters at LT, and he's injured at the moment.

2) The defense has problems throughout.  Juan Castillo was promoted to D-Coordinator after 13yrs as an O-line coach, so he's raw and he's picking up a lot of the flak, which is certainly not helping matters.  They've gone with a wide 9 system which is designed to put pressure on the QB and is certainly effective at doing that.  However, that's become less effective due to Trent Cole's injury.  The big flaw in using the wide 9 is that it leaves holes in the middle which every team has been able to exploit with the running game, or by dumping off short checkdown passes.  This is not helped by the fact that the Linebackers are largely inexperienced and we've been chopping and changing the personnel there, hence the frequent big yards that are being given up through the middle.

Also, for some reason, we've signed big name free agents in the secondary but are currently asking them to take on new roles from what they're best at.  Asomugha is the obvious example - one of the best shutdown corners in man coverage, but getting exploited when being played in the zone.  If you're going to spend all that money to acquire him, why not scheme your defense to do what he's best at?


I'm not saying the Eagles can't win the game, I just think the market is pricing them based on the names on the teamsheet, but not for the way that they're actually playing as a unit on both sides of the ball.  Quite frankly, I've watched them the last three weeks and waited for the change to come, and it hasn't, so why should this week be any different?

They should be +3 for this game, not -1.5, so I agree with you that +1 was ridiculous.  We just disagree on the direction it should have moved!

Only bet i got so far this week is Saints -4 and a bit -4.5. Really like it.

Did like Raiders -5, but now 6.5, so cant get involved.

Also, had a little on Earnest Graham 1st TD last night @ 14/1 with Stans, everyone else was like 7's. Instantly got bashed into 6/1, with Blount being out. 7's is about right.

Dont mind Lions -4, but that might just me being a bit biased towards my Superbowl bet and have not really watched San Fran play this season. Think i like Minny too, but not sure il get on.

Wish id took the early +1 on Eagles, think they'l get it sorted this week but obv cant get involved now iv missed the price.

-2.5 everywhere, and -3 on some books.

Insanity prevails!

Great prediction of the market, Brent.  Perhaps I'm too emotionally involved with Philly to understand where all the optimism is coming from, because I certainly don't have any!

]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011101600!!/] (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011101600!!/)

We got pretty unlucky with the weather angle here. Major storm system arrived right on cue but it looks like it´s ultimately going to be just a little too far north.

I really like the unders (42.5) in the Chicago game (already on a raft of other unders) and Detroit -4.

I bet unders after your post on Thursday and have a sweat going into 9pm


Jags v Steelers - Under 39 @ 10/11

Rams V Packers - Under 47.5 @ 10/11

Texans V Ravens - Under 44.5 @ 10/11

Cowboys V Pats - Under 55 @ 10/11

4x £10 Trebles

1x £10 Four fold


         
   

pats -7
texans +6
Vikings ML


gogogogo

Saints -6

Pats -7

Ravens

Raiders

HOLD! 49ers!!!

burnnnn. siiggghhhhhh Lions.

weeeeee are you shitting me :) after the sherriff's analysis of 49ers team i thought we was doomed, very good game glad i watched it now.. 5-1 :) odds on them winning that game?

I think my analysis of the team is what's causing you to be so good.  Anything I predict in here, put your life on the opposite happening.

On that theme....

The Eagles will not win the NFC East.
The Eagles will not make the playoffs.
The Eagles absolutely will not win the Superbowl.

That should cover it!

In running?

before the game were they long shots?  i didnt bet on them.

No - 4 point faves Lions.  49ers were maybe a 7/4 shot....real 9/4 shots possibly.

Run that clock down one time Ravens!!!

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii  yeah forgot about this till now and checked i put the same matcheson earlier this week but for a £35 fourfold
TYVM to the OP
 ;tightend;     ;hattip;

Nice fade in the Ravens game there at the end paiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii Ladbrokes

Big drink owed to the kukushkin thank you sir   ;yippee;

Rescued what was looking like a poorish weekend in style :-). I do think the blustery conditions helped us out quite a bit in Pittsburgh but we basically got lucky. It was never going to be a terrible bet though if you think where the points lines would be in these games if it wasn´t for the freakishly high scoring start to the season.

Nothing I really fancy tonight, I don´t think going in on the unders (42.5) again is a terrible bet but I always have visions of these games being littered with errors (perhaps unfairly) and short spells where points just come from everywhere, i.e special teams and defensive touchdowns. I quite fancied backing a NYJ Defense touchdown but can´t see any value in 4/1.

Even though there´s nothing I´m keen on I´ve pretty much decided to back all of Red´s selections from now on since he knows a load more than I do about this, so I´ll be backing Miami +7.

gl all

I'm pretty much the definition of a mug punter and just pick a couple games out according to what I see here and from talking with a couple mates who like a bet.

As Rich said when he saw weather forecast and all that being bandied about  we were sold :D

I'm working tonight so won't be able to watch and will prob just leave it alone. Good luck whatever you back and everyone else too :)

oioiiiiiiiiiiii, The Shrewder members of the Shrewdie household we're on Jets D 1st TD at 25s.

Jones and Nicky landed Sanchez anytime at 8/1 too.

I got the Winning margin 13-18 spot on at 11/2 and Shonn Greene running yards at over 60 @ 10/11.

Pretty deece game all round!


This is all down to Nicky being over from Canada for the week though, as he runs better than anyone i know i think. Let the running bad continue when he fks off in the morning.

oh, apologies for huge aftertiming! :)

Picks this week?

I have had

Panthers -2.5
Raiders -4.5

Currently standing bets in the Bears game and the Steelers game, so would welcome opinions on which side looks good there.

Bets so far this week:

Carolina -1.5
Green Bay -7.5


Did like Raiders -4 until i heard the news that big Seba Janikowski might be out with a hammy and hes so vital in the Raiders game.


Off to the Wembley game with Jones, Brent and Middy and obv wna have a bet but have no idea whts going to happen so any opinions welcome plz!

Looks like Carson Palmer won't be starting Sunday either according to reports.

Completely gone off Raiders now, possibly even like Chiefs +5.5 with Laddies but prob wont touch it.

The London game is a real 50/50 imo and a game I would stay away from. This could well end up deciding the final playoff spot, with the Lions taking the 1st wild card.

I am going as well to the game, VIPing it as my dad wanted to get tickets early and they were the only ones available. I wasn't going to argue with him!

Texans @ 33/20

Does anybody know if the Bears Buccs game at Wembley tomorrow is a sell out or how many tickets are still avalible.

What is the best way to get tickets? official source, craigslist etc or touts on the day?

Still on sale at ticketmaster I think.  It won't sell out.  It hasn't since the first year I don't think.  For the Chargers-saints game I had tickets and then at the last minute I was offered a place in a box (brags I know) so tried to sell our tckets outside.  In the end i gave them to the landlord of the pub I was drinking in for a couple of pints as there was no interest.

Yeah still tickets going. Got mine and going to be rooting for the Bears tomorrow against Tampay Bay United.  ;)

Does anyone know if Carson palmer is playing QB for Raiders or not?

Chiprich posted yesterday that reports said he wasn't going to be starting

So Boller??

Yeah found that article

http://m.nfl.com/news/09000d5d82356866/raiders-likely-to-opt-for-familiar-boller-over-palmer-vs-chiefs/ (http://m.nfl.com/news/09000d5d82356866/raiders-likely-to-opt-for-familiar-boller-over-palmer-vs-chiefs/)

Mongcoooooooooooooooooos!!!!!!!

Solid all round football teams win gamez!!! So do the Denver Mongcos sometimes. BOOOOOOOOO FUCKING OOOOM

Oh dear Miami....

much as it makes me happy to see them like this I don't get it. thought they were an improving outfit last year, now they look like an 0-16 team

It's not so much their fault. It just so happens that the following has come to pass...

TEBOW TIME!!!!

They were awful last year to be fair.  It was just that results last year masked it a bit.  Obv have QB problems now but Henne isn't much better and Jacobs showed last week how poor he can be.  I am actually not sure what we are good at.

actually thinking about it it was 2 years ago I thought they were improving. that was mainly due to playing a lot of wildcat so it didn't matter that henne was terrible

guys say hi to blondite nick 'inform' scott

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RIfLnoxIGQ

hahahahaahaha nick scott ladies and gents, sign him up sign him up sign him upppp!

Absolutely brilliant day!

Topped off when i couldn't believe my eyes when Nick mfkin Scott does that on Wembley field, rofl.

Haha Yorky was on about that on msn earlier comedy :D

Pretty funny but also pretty brave.  Not sure I would have risked getting tackled by an irate Brian Urlacher for £8k nevermind £800

Pretty poor defence from the Bears there - no movement at all. Having to rely on special teams coming off the bench to make the tackle is a pretty shocking effort.

oioiiiiiiiiiiii

any1 fancy much 2nite?

Under 40 available in a couple of places.

Will trade with anyone that wants the overs....?

Ill take a cheeky £75 on the overs @ evens at 40.0

Not a massive fancy but reckon Jags might sneak a couple of TDs and a field goal.

Booked thx.

yh ill take up to £200 on the overs

Why does he streak with his trousers on? Does he have a small willy? It's October, we'd understand.

If Simon doesn't come back to you I will lay you £100 over 40 @ Evens

no probs, £100 me, £100 redarmi - booked for £200

ok booked

I normally don't bet big but given how shit the Vikings have been this season I had £150 on GB -10 last night and sure was pleased to see their rookie QB throw the game of his career on debut.......

I did £50 on NO -14 and Ravens -10 as a getout punt so fingers crossed for tonight my boys can do it!!!!

Getting involved with Jacksonville at 5/1 o/r. I´m by no means confident pricing up NFL but I was expecting at best 7/2 so it´s a clear bet for me. The strength of both teams is their defence and their offences are both high run % so I feel like I should be on the unders but I always think the MNF factor makes this line marginally less predictable so I´ll leave it.

Ed Dickson over 37.5 yards @ 20/23
Ed Dickson anytime TD scorer @ 12/5
Balt D ftd @ 18/1

these aswel as, Dickson 1st and Balt Over 24

ravens -10 and overs on 40

lets gogogogogogogo

On overs 38.5 with laddies too @ 20/21 lets  get paiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiid!!

how would you like paying simon and stuart?

Fk me I'll be happy if Ravens even win at this rate :(

i could stop at train at the moment

Is this even real ;grr;

this is utter utter utter shite

I´m kind of enjoying it :-), fml missing the unders but I´ll take a Jags win.

Yeah fyl only getting on the 5/1 :D

The worst thing is I can't even drink at the moment to dull the pain, I have to sit and watch this fking shit and just suffer while my monkey is going up in smoke  lol

how that lost i'll never know.

ha yeah I didn´t mean to be a prick, it´s just at that stage I was still sweating the Jags but the unders was the in the bag, obv delighted now with how things turned out. Still sorry you did your money though, maybe we´ll get it back with another acca on the points next weekend. fwiw I would have had 3/4 on the points this sunday but I got caught up with family stuff and didn´t get the bets on.

I seem to be devoting a huge amount of time to looking at the unders markets at the moment, I do look at almost every other opportunity as well, it´s just these keep standing out.

New England at Pittsburgh Under 50.5 This is huge imo, it´s an amount of points you just don´t see often in games involving Pittsburgh, especially at Heinz Field and it´s looking cold and wet there from Wednesday onwards. It´s not dissimilar to last week, the line is high enough already, if the weather delivers the bet could be in before kick off.

Dallas and Philadlephia under 51. This one is perhaps less obvious at first because they are 2 talented QB´s leading good passing offences but there are a couple of things I like. Philly´s offence is quite dependent on establishing the run, Dallas are very well equipped to keep them quiet on that front if they can force Vick to be too reliant on the pass I don´t see it going well for Philly. Also this is a huge game with regards to who ultimately wins the NFC East, just the sort of game for every one to be fired up defensively and Romo might well throw in one of his quiet ones. The weather is potentially a big issue here as well but it´s a max bet for me even without that.

solid punting

Might just be the shrewdest.

Haha nah I chuckled it was a great line, as Homer said you might just be the shrewdest  :D

I thought even if it's a tight game I'll still get paid out on my 5 game acca that I had Ravens as the last team and watching them just piss the whole game down the drain was insane.

I't turned out to be a painful weekend after doing my GB money too. That will teach me to bet on profits I don't already have. I figured I would lump on GB with the money I had coming from the first bet which worked out well [ ]

This week I like Bills -6.  So if anyone wants Redskins plus the points, holler.

Cheers guys, I´m not shrewdest though, not by a long way. I´m a fast learner and a hard worker though and while I´m learning I´m running like god so it´s all good.

Test cricket and Rugby Union on the other hand, I might just be the shrewdest at those :-).

Interest:

Panthers -3
Cardinals +13
Bills -6
pats+steelers under 51

Won't be around over the weekend, so if you want any of that vig-free, lmk.

Patriots @ 8/11
Lions @ 5/7

Main fancy is Cleveland +9.5, I also like Carolina -3. Probably adding a couple to my over/under points, at the moment I´m looking at over in the Bills game and under at Seattle.

Go on Jones I'll bok you and throw a score on and chuck in Saints -14 as well to bump the price a bit

I have been filled on everything, so no further action from me this week.

Think theres a couple of big prices for first td in the MIA@NYG game so have gone in:

Daniel Thomas @ 10/1  StanJames
Victor Cruz @ 20/1 StanJames

ha oh no, starting to hate the patriots bet more and more! lets hope they can do it though.


price has gone on both of these now, sorry! 15/2 and 12/1 best now.

Just on Cruz at 20s

Double on Lions and Texans this week too, lets goooooo.

We'll be  alright in Brady we trust... in fact I'm gonna go in for a bit more to round it up to bully such is my faith!!!

I'm still dev'd after last weekend when Flacco & Rice played like they had their net on the Jags outright and unders along with kukushkin!!

Double that up with that little mug for the Vikings throwing like he was Brees on his debut costing me the world on  GB -10 and it was as bad a weekend as the unders was good :D

Drunken betting is usually a disaster obv. and I did come up with this one after getting back from the pub late last night but when I woke up this morning it still seemed a like a good idea so I´m on: NE at Pittsburgh No Touchdown 100-1.

IMO This game really shouldn´t be the longest on the whole coupon for no TD, longer than NO at St Louis for example. Pretty hard to get a handle on what the right price is but I would have thought it´s closer to 50´s.

Isn't the price for no TD jusrtn a simple poisson distribution based on the likely number of TD's?  Based on the mid points for each teams number of TD's that likely number of TD's is 6.1.  If that is correct then the true price for no TD is 444/1.  I do think points is a bit high but that 6.1 TD expectancy from Sporting Index would have to be off by 1.5 TD's for this to even be a fair price.  I can see an argument where you could argue that NFL TD's don't fot poisson distribution perfectly but for rough estimates like this I think it is good enough.  Also if this is off by enough then total points would probably be a better play from an EV position.  If we assume that each number is worth about 2% probability wise then if the line was 10 points off then it would be like 70% chance to go under 51 so at an EV of 133%  it would be a maximum bet on it's own with obviously much bigger variance.

As mentioned earlier I´m on the unders already, it was basically in thinking how far I think that line is out that led me to think the no TD might represent value. I guess the main error I´ve made is assuming the other no TD prices are approximately right (instead of just doing the maths), when as you´ve highlighted above they pretty clearly are not. I´m confident it won´t be the worst tenner I´ll ever spend :-) but I´ll certainly have to chalk it up as a failure in the quest for value.

Genuinely thanks again for the help with stuff like this.

Fancy a small double on the Niffle tomorrow night. Detriot Carolina any good?

Il be absolutely stunned if Lions cant beat Denver.

Unsure on Carolina, i did think i liked them then a shrewd lad i no from the Belly told me he doesnt like them at all so i havent touched it.

sigh Daniel Thomas is OUT, prolly the best ROI i'll have this week at least! 0%!

gonna replace him with Reggie Bush @ 11/1 shouldn't last long when the news filters through.

chucking in Lex Hilliard with him @ 25/1 for insurance as i don't think Bush can handle all the touches on a drive.

on these 2 obv.

We've had so many of these huge value coos this season because of injuries etc and none have landed yet, get therrrrrrrre plz.

added a single on Bills -3.5 10/11 to go with my Houston/Lions double.

And an acca on Giants, Saints, Bills and Dallas all on handicap

lets gooooooooooo

swedrfgthyujiol;lkjhgfrdesadfgvhj

sigh, knew i had a bad feeling about that!  what we on in the late?

oioii, single pissed it. Double was fairly ez too.

Acca not so good.



hope you got on met.

Witten anytime and 1st in Dallas game. Maclin 1st too.

No idea whats gna happen really, been saying Dallas all week but unsure now.

oioiiiiii, The Maclin

I knocked it in but have a getout tomorrow with a random punt I did with the £13 I had left in sports :D

29/10/2011 0000221 Treble (To win)  1 £12.81  New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers Total points  Under +52.0 10/11   
          San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Money Line Kansas City Chiefs  17/10 
          Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers Money Line Minnesota Vikings  8/5 

I was paying so little attention to this game I only just read it on nfl.com..... Nice one Rich I think I'm gonna have to start getting on some of these TD bets you seem to be cleaning up!!!

wpwp tyty. This is the first season i have ever bet on NFL and reading some of the write ups itt it just shows how much effort you guys put in and just how shrewd you are. Has shown me the level i should be thinking on before punting.

Only 3 games over the 51 on the wknd hope most cleaned up on the unders.

Landed a nice double (and singles) on these  ^^ and still managed a small loss on the night :-(, first losing weekend of the season though and I´m looking forward to next weekend already :-). Nothing tonight for me although SD are starting to drift  towards a tempting price.

Nice job Milligan, think we´ve got a decent group of knowledgable punters on the forum at the moment (led by red ofc) and it should be a good opportunity for everyone to cash in.

 

Pleaaaaaaaase don't mistake anything I pick as "informed".  Whilst some decent analysis does indeed take place on this thread, for me it was limited to "hmm Bills seem to be able to give the good teams a fair game, Redskins look awful, 6 points doesn't seem too bad"

That said, I will probably get involved this week again 49ers -3.5 v Redskins

all over the chargers tonight, anyone gimme a pric chargers -20?

Mathews 7/1 (RB) and Jacob Hester 50/1 (backup RB with Tolbert out) - 1st TD tonight

Dont fancy a lot, have a small treble on Stoke and Chargers for something to rail though.

Yeh cheers. Wasn't even a sweat. Carolina would have tilted me. Thought the last min field goal was a poor miss but i'm no expert.

 :dontask:

meant double obv

yeah your right, was a shocking miss.

They also activated a RB called Curtis Brinkley from the practice squad this week.  Not sure where he fits into the equation on the depth chart but after seeing Kevin Faulk get all the Patriots carries yesterday I wouldn't rule anything out in the NFL!

Anyone got a link for tonights game?

Disregard managed to find one while I had a minute at work :D

This one's solid

http://myp2p.cm/myp2p-live.php?v=www.icesportz.eu%2F (http://myp2p.cm/myp2p-live.php?v=www.icesportz.eu%2F)

wtf is it with these calls??

sighhhhhhh, seems Hester wasnt the man.

Yeah i read about Brinkley but he wasnt even in the betting tho, bs! Glad he didnt get it.

how are chargers not out of touch here

good shout mate, we looked for him but he wasnt even on any markets.

lets gogogogogo now chargers ffs

fml, made effort to go corals for the -2.5 ended up being a misprint and was -3.5 thats gonna end up fucking me here

OMG

wow

I enjoyed that

They all laughed when i traded rivers for ingram

Talk about luckboxing that result there to get my treble up. Shame I greened it out after Trigg posted about -20 Chargers as I thought there must be something I was missing :D

chargers are so jekell and hyde

They have been a weird team for the last 5/6 years, constantly flattering to deceive. Tbh this season they haven't even flattered, they have gone 4-3 and pretty much looked mediocre in all of those games. Their wins are home to Kansas, Minnesota, Miami and away to Denver hardly signature wins and all were close games.

Rivers really hasn't looked as good this year as he has in previous years. He and the Chargers should be too good to carry on like this, but you never know given their history. They would be a team I would be looking to oppose more than back at the moment tbh, given they are probably overrated in general.

GB -5.5
ATL -6.5
SF -3.5

Double on Chiefs -4 and San Fran -3.5 this week.

4fold on

Jets @ 5/4
Chiefs @ 10/21
Packers -5.5
Falcons -6.5

Kansas -4
Cardinals -3
Steelers -3
49ers -3.5

Acca and trebles.

ATLANTA FALCONS -6.5 @ 19/20
GREEN BAY PACKERS -5.5 @ 19/20
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4 @ 19/20
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins UNDER 50.5 @ 10/11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints UNDER 47 @ 10/11
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 51 @ 10/11

[ ] holding my breath

Just the overs in the NYG vs NE game for me @50.5

Wow, really!

That would suggest the fins are only a 1 point dog on a neutral field, I find that hard to believe. Our "suck for luck" plan is really gaining momentum.

another installment of first TD value:

Greg Little 30/1 paddypower and 7/1 anytime, or 20/1 first browns td if you prefer.

get therrrrrrre.

Another one for us

 49ers San Francisco 49ers
Roy Helu will start at RB for the Redskins in place of Ryan Torain.


So we've taken the 14s 1st TD, should be like 8's.

On Pittsburgh -3
Seattle +11
GB@SD Under 51.5pts

Given my track record when posting predictions in advance, I suggest going the other way for your net worth.

falcons -7
bengals +3
steelers -3

16s on Lads

Jets O/R
49er -4
Saints Under 51

GB single -5.5 @ 10/11

GB -6
Pats -9.5
Pitts -3

Sigh, I have never been so disappointed to see the fins win. I want to be good in a few years time, not win an irrelevant midseason game.

Anyone on anything in the late games?


I've gone  Steelers -3, Eagles -8

Oh shit. Set myself up for a right sweat with this one. Bears v Eagles 0-0 most boring game ever plz

7-1 amazing :)

Ladbrokes doing an offer for First TD betting tonight. Same as Freds double dlight on the footy,   if you score first then get another odds doubled, 3 trebled etc

That is a much better offer on first TD scorer than regular soccer match as there are many more likely TD's

Forte 6/1 and Maclin 8/1 for me

Hope Bears win the game! Big blueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

been more speculative ont he laddies offer

roy williams 18/1
devin hester 10/1

gonna back da bears outright

I must say I just don't understand this price tonight.  I thought the game might have been pick em......maybe at a push Eagles -3.  Am I missing a major injury or something??

have a saver on over 47 u might scoop the lot

The Eagles lines have been like this all season.  They're being credited for being a far better team than they've shown throughout the season.

I expected there to be an over-reaction after the Dallas game and a -9 line certainly is that.  It had drifted in to -7 a couple of days ago but it's back out there again now.

The lines I've seen in recent weeks all make sense only if the Eagles come out and play like the team that they've been hyped up to be.  However, apart from last week's game, they've only shown flashes of this through the season and some of the 'other side' has been as inept as many of the bottom feeding teams.  In fairness, the defence has looked much better in the last couple of games, particularly against the run, but Forte is still an exceptional talent to try and stop tonight.

Personally, I think a -4/-5 line is about the 'fair' line so there's value taking the Bears, and there's no injuries that I think should be affecting the line to a signficant extent (McCoy had an illness scare in the week but the signs are it's not going to be a factor).  If this game was being played at Soldier Field I'd expect us to lose it, or at worst be a pickem game.  I'm putting a lot of faith in home field advantage for tonight but I just can't see a -9, no matter how hard I try to justify it.

And in a case of head over heart, I'm predictably on Bears +9.

Come on the Eagles 7pt win!!

I don't bet much on NFL but for some fun I have had a tickle on 4 first TD scorers. 

LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
DeSean Jackson (PHI)
Matt Forte (CHI)

Makes for green if one of them score first.  Just taking selections from this thread.

Terrible from Philly, they would have been better off giving the Bears a walk.  Oh wait, I think they just did.

ffs, we got done there.

Down at the 1, Forte had a chance. Terrible play tho.

Spaeth can whistle.

Boom, bears ML and bears by 1-6 scooooop n stack

WPWP

ffs, teach me to be such a greedy prick!! Will be having savers in the future [ x ]

Having a 4pt middle is a lot better than an outright saver.

This week, eyeing up:

BAL -6.5
JAX -3

And Lions +3 hmmmmm...

What's everyone on tonight?

I'm gonna go with Chargers -7x for a bullseye

See Laddies still have the first TD promo going so had a tenner on Tolbert and Gates.

 

SD and over 47.5 just for something to watch

Am on Pittsburgh -4 and giants +4.5 for a Cheeky double

wtf with this darts match

you never heard of the red button mug

yeh pressed it, was a snap reaction

Pats o/r and under 47 for a sweat here

i wanna bet the over 49.5 on tonights game, anyone wanna accomodate, upto £300

I'll do you a ton of it mate

cool booked

Anyone agree with me, Jones seems to think i'm mad.

If colts get #1 pick, Manning will not be with them next season, even if he's 100% fit

I agree with Jones. However I believe Manning's mega contract expires end of next year. I think they draft Luck (an Elway type once in 25 year prospect according to everyone) let him learn for a year then stick Manning in the booth as OC assuming he retires

Think they have till march to decide weather or not to pick up the option on his contract for a year. If they do it will cost them $28m.

Interesting article about it here http://indiana.sbnation.com/indianapolis-colts/2011/11/14/2559893/suck-for-luck-means-goodbye-peyton-manning-in-indianapolis

Either way, i just can't wait to see him. Wonder what round people would draft him in the fantasy world, 2nd?

Poor old Denver are going to win just enough games for all the QBs to be gone by the time they pick, could be the same for Miami.

In the third quarter yesterday they had run 50 times, and had 0 passing yards. Tebow then connected on one later on

there is QB called Matt Barkley at USC who is going to be a really nice consolation prize for a bottom 5 team that cannot get Luck

Good news for the Eagles at this rate!

(low blow warning)

looking forward to Vince "dream team" Young this weekend?

(don't often get a chance supporting the LOLboys, so forgive me one rub)

Anyone want the unders on 49.5 200 left

I will take the under for £100 pls

Booked simon

Schaub out for the season.

We've got involved in Titans for the division @ 9/1

Prob not coo of the year, but shud be like 4's prob.

Think 4-1 is probably a bit of a push given the backup but definitely a good bet and have nicked a bit myself.  Am on Vikings tonight +13.5 which I like as much as you can any bet against the Packers

pack are just too good, was tilting when they brought flynn on but the recievers they have are just too fkin good, shib the overs

Where did u get 9/1?

BSQ and 888.com.

Come on you Titans! Need Foster to still be good for Texans for my FF team tho, sigh.

Thought my "read" was ok, MIN would struggle to score and GB might just stroll to 35 points or so.  But ultimately, just too good.

PM payment details pls.

Fancy Cincy +7 this weekend

I do not agree

It wins the most polite rubdown award, that's for sure.

TBH, now that the season is dead to us, we might as well see whether VY can be the backup long-term as he's only on a 1yr contract.  The logic is he's the most 'Vick-like' QB out there, but all we've seen so far is that he can make the same bone-headed interceptions that Vick has been susceptible to all season.  I wouldn't mind seeing how he looks for a game or two now that the games are meaningless from a play-off perspective.

Maybe he's the missing piece in the jigsaw and we look like the dream team from now on  ;boltpp;

One thing we should do now is get rid of the Castillo experiment at DC ASAP and find someone who can do the job.  He would at least benefit from some time with the current crop of players to see whether he can get anything out of the rag-tag bunch of linebackers we have or can figure out that elite CB's don't look quite as good when you ask them to play schemes they're not used to.  There's going to be a massive clamour for Reid to lose his job (it's bad enough when we make the playoffs!) and it might well happen, but I'm not sure it's the best thing for the team.  I just wish he'd change the record in press conferences!

To be honest, it's the season I feared we have.  All the dream-team hype this season reminded me too much of the Cowboys last year (i.e. the first team to win a Superbowl in their own stadium) and our season has pretty much followed the same crash course as that one did.  I much prefer us to be under-the-radar, like we were last year, although there's no chance of that ever being the case again while Vick is the QB.

The remainder of the season now becomes can we stay ahead of the mighty Redskins!  It says everything about us that we have the same record as them, the Cleveland Browns, Arizona, Seattle, and Jacksonville.  It's where we belong at the moment, without a doubt, and at least we can stop the pretence that things could still turn around.

It's a possibility, but I think it's more likely they live with both Luck and Manning on the roster for a season and give Luck a chance to learn the system.  Manning's trade value in a year's time won't be much different from now (and there'll be teams out there who would take him, despite the injury risk) so if Luck is the new messiah then they can go forward with him at that point.  Similarly, if the situation arises that Manning is awesome again next season to the extent that they choose to see out his contract, I doubt that Luck's trade value will have dropped off to any extent from what teams would be willing to give up for the No1 pick this year.

The other possible scenario, although I struggle to see it happening, is that Indy trade the pick anyway and stick with Manning.  I've heard talk of 3x 1st AND 2nd round picks potentially being the price of getting the pick, which is huge in terms of ability to rebuld for the next 10 years or so.  However, it doesn't seem that unlikely, given what the Raiders traded away to get Carson Palmer!

One other twist to this is that the reason Manning hasn't been placed on IR this season is potentially that they want to see him return to practice to see what the likelihood is of him recovering for next year.  It's clearly a nonsense to expect that they're actually going to play him in a game now that they're 0-10 but if he goes to IR they can't see him practice before the option on his contract is due and the draft takes place.

It makes a lot of sense to me, and I've been puzzled that they didn't just put him on IR once the season was lost, and I can't see any other logical reason why this hasn't happened.

I fully expect them to trade down to acquire a sick running back and lots more players if Manning is okay to continue his glittering career.

No way any team that is able to get Luck will not take him.  The only team I think possibly wouldn't take him would be Green Bay.

Of the possible candidates in 'suck for Luck' I'd be surprised if the Rams took him, given what they have invested in Bradford.  He's been disappointing this season, admittedly, but they'd surely benefit from acquiring multiple picks to strengthen elsewhere rather than go back on a rebuilding exercise they started 2 years ago.

Similarly with the Panthers.  Newton is the face of their franchise now after proving the doubters wrong about his ability to function as an NFL QB.  They need to build around him to turn their results around as he's getting them close in most games, but not across the line.

disagree. Manning is in his 12th year. Whilst a star QB can have the longevity of Favre, most don't. Manning might have 5 more years at the top, he might not play again. They have to pick Luck and rebuild round him

Only those teams who drafted a sure thing franchise QB in the last two years (Bradford, Newton) would trade this pick away

I have a feeling that Manning's injury is worse than they are letting on.  I think even the Rams would take him.  Agree Carolina wouldn't.

Are you talking about teams that might get the option or the 32 teams in total?

Does everyone not think we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves with how good Luck might be? He has proven nothing yet and people are talking like he is a ready made superbowl winning QB

there is always a chance that he won't live up to the hype.

the Elway, Manning types though have turned franchises from no hopers to superbowl contenders in about three years obviously as long as other talent is drafted too


I was thinking only very few teams would want to pass up someone considered by all who commentate an Elway, Favre, Marino type

carolina and the rams obviously as they have just made huge investments in number 1 qb picks

green bay because of rodgers

brees, roethlisberger, brady etc etc would allow their teams to pass...not that they'd ever pick high enough this year anyway



seattle, miami, cleveland, jacksonville, washington likely to be top 10 picks that would love Luck if Indy do trade

There is always going to be a risk that a qb is going to be a bust in the NFL, but according to virtually everyone in the know the chances that Luck turns out to be a very good NFL qb are very high relatively.

The indy situation is intriguing, they will deffo take him and would be mad not to. What a better education could he get than working as Manning's understudy for a while.What you do with Manning is interesting as there are non-footballing reasons that trading him would be bad for Indy, he basically is the face of the Colts in the public eye.

Is Barkley deffo going to be available for the draft as he is a junior and USC will actually be bowl eligeble next year? View on Landry Jones the Oklahoma QB? The fins would be mad not to pick a QB in the first round and these are the 2 that look the most likely imo now.

It is actually remarkably rare that these really highly rated players don't live up to the hype.  Lets not forget he has played 3 years at the top of the college game turning around a college that hasn't had that much impact before.  Ryan Leaf is so well known because it is so rare for a massively touted QB not to make it.  Tim Couch and David carr are the only ones that have been drafted #1 and not turned into a franchise player recently and both played for a while as number ones.

Jamarcus Russell too. Your point ius fair though.

If the new college prospects are so valuable and worth building your team around, how much would you be happy with your team giving up to get this prospect if say the colts turned him down, or the colts select him to trade him.

The Bears gave up 1st round picks for the next 2 years and a 3rd round pick plus kyle orton iirc. A heavy price but it has been a long time since they had a franchise QB.

what would a bradford or mccoy cost now to pick up?

Looking back it is truly remarkable that the Dolphins drafted Jake Long as their first round pick in 2008 when Flacco and Ryan were available and then picked Henne with their second round pick.

Jets -6
Bears -3.5
Cowboys -7
Ten +6

Lmk if anyone wants any of that...

pretty much all in on JETS tonight  -6

I've gone -5.5 on BF gl us!

Love the unders (40.5), don´t love the Jets -6, they were much more attractive -4.5 but missed that boat :-(.

I'm seeing this all week from shrewd punters but I can't figure it out at all.  Can anyone explain why they like Jets so much?  I just can't see it but so many good judges seem to like it.

I just like betting and I think Denver are shit :D

well, moreno out for a start

magahee questionable so basically no running game and teebow cant complete a pass

Lance Ball baby.

Dont like either side really, but wil be massively supporting Tebowwwwwwwwwwwww and the Broncos.

Might have a bit of Plaxico 1st td at 12s tho.

Yeah Moreno isn't a big loss he has only run for like 20 yards a game this year and surely McGahee will play and even with both of them out Ball did well enough on Sunday.  They are going to need to get their running game going no doubt because that is the big advantage they have but I just worry about the fact that the Jets seem to screw up good scoring opps every time they play and don't forget LT is a doubt for them too.  Agree Tebows passing hasn't looked great but it might not matter.

It's a really fascinating game tonight, just from the prospect of I'm not quite sure how it pans out.

Jets strength is snuffling the passing game, which is pretty much non-existant with Tebow at QB, but how effective can Denver run with a banged up McGahee, Lance Ball and a guy activated from the practice squad this week.  Oh yeah, Tebow too!

Surely the Jets will just stick Revis on Decker for the whole game, which means Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas might become the targets for the 3 passes that Tebow throws.

Throw in the fact that Sanchez was terrible last week and Tebow, whilst potentially being the worst QB on display in the NFL, has somehow gone 3-1 as a starter and has an intangible quality about him, if nothing else.  Short week for both teams and the 2hour time difference for NYJ both give some edge back to Denver.

I suspect the Jets win but not confident enough to have anything to do with it from a betting point of view.  Lines were ranging from -4.5 to -6 Jets earlier this week (and Pinnacle didn't have a line up on Tuesday) so even the bookies were all over the place on it.

Fascinating matchup, better watched with no money in action, IMO.

The point about Decker getting covered by Revis is a good one and I think that under 42.5 receiving yards with Hills is decent value @ 10/11. There may also be some value in the other two WR's in the first TD market at 20/1+.  Agree it is an interesting game.

double/quits
 u can have denver +6

Aye go on then.  Booked.

weeeeeeee  life roll +£100 on

Teeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.

That game was absolutely hilarious, I have no idea how he does it. He looks like the worst QB to ever grace the NFL and then just wins the game with a 95 yard drive.

Absolutely wonderful stuff from Tebow.

TEBOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIME


gtfo Jets you terrible terrible team.

Now for Big Bluuuuuue to do the Eagles on Sunday night plz

I stopped watching after 8 consecutive punts.

Would someone be able to let me know if Tebow managed a 95 yard drive that possibly embarrassed the big Jets defence with his skipping past them - keeping the Broncs in serious playoff  contention and put his own personal record as a starter this season to 4 and 1 ?

Also, in the unlikely event of the anove having happened, how many Os in Tebooooow?

I believe Jesus was on his side.

Tbh Tebow's rise is the most convincing argument I have heard yet for the existence of God.

I actually tweeted as they started that drive "0.01% chance that the Broncos can go 95 yards and score a td here".  I have to fall into the "Tebow runs good" camp rather than he does something amazing to keep pulling it out.  He does have the potential to be the best running QB ever but unfortunately it is only the running part he is any good at and there is a good reason that most QB's avoid getting tackled....most running backs only last 3 years in the league!!!

so pleased I decided at 1.00 that I was too drunk to be watching nfl. sounds like I avoided several hours of boredom capped off with 95 yards of disappointment

Based on watching the 1st half, I wouldn't class it as boring as such.  Tebow has the intangible quality of making dysfunctional quarterbacking incredibly intrguing to watch (and to be fair, so does Sanchez at times!)

It's similar to watching downhill skiing in the hope of seeing someone crash.  The bad bits are the really entertaining bits.

Additionally, there's also the fantasy league impact of now having your Denver wide receivers reliant on one touchdown pass from him to have been worth playing.  Eric Decker, awesome with Orton at QB, now resembles a lottery ticket.  Last week, 1 reception for 56yds and a TD = a respectable 11.6 pts.  Last night, nada, zilch, zip, rien!

Decker was so bad last night Hills think he didn't play and have settled my Under 43.5 yards bet as void!!!!!

brilliant

Vince Young ftd in the PHI@NYG game @ 28/1

gone for the above and Steven Smith 25/1 too with Maclin confirmed out.

obv wont win tho

cardinals +10

Anyone on anything in the last?

I need Giants o/r and got them -6 in another bet too

One timeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!

first TD's to get out, same as jones/shrewdie

GL

booooom stevey smith!

now come on giants!

Great call.  Had a bowl of rice on for soemthing to watch...now own a chinese restaurant ;-)

oioiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii.

Now come on Big Blueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

booooooooom stevey smith, cheers rich and jones

Now the bills decide to start putting the sub 10pt games, sigh

Fins not conceded a TD in 3 games, what is the world coming too?

Nice one boys wpwp!

Going in on Panthers -4, so hurry up if you like the Colts....

Also like Bengals, but would like to get the magic 7 on it

what do people think of the bears +3.5 in oakland without cutler

what would the line of been without the cutler injury?

I've backed the pats - 17. Big ol handicap to overcome but can't see much offense from Kansas with an inexperienced QB

Looking to see the C-Ocho show back in town tonight!

First/Anytime/Last at 22/1-3/1-20/1

And a speculative 33/1 on Ridley

Last night about summed up my week, I've backed yours and Rich's first TD bets since you started putting them up and for some reason forgot to do them yesterday :(

On all of those so lets get fking paiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiid!!

COME ON CHAD AND THE RIDDLER

Love your first TD picks in general but not sure I like the last TD scorer option for any NE player.  Much more likely to score first TD than last imo and I doubt i could back any NE player to score last TD given they may well be double figures ahead going into third quarter in which case no WR/TE is less than 20-1 to score imo.

not touched Ocho.

gone Ridley 1st TD 33/1 and Pats D 1st TD 22/1.

cba having any sort of bet on outcome or anything tho.

Decent bet on KC +17, smaller on KC+17 u47 double and first TD on ocho @ 18/1 and Gronkowski. @6/1

Nice work, chad hasn't got a look in

fk this, chad hasnt had a snap since the opening 3 and out.

should get our speculative Ridley reddies back at least, any1 see him take a snap?

no, but hopefully i missed one

Possibly the best article I have ever read about the NFL.. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/sports/football/kris-jenkinss-view-of-life-in-the-nfl-trenches.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2 nobody can tell me these guys are overpaid.

ty, deece read.

Yeah cheers for that very interesting

Anyone had a look at the games tomorrow yet?  Initial views are Dolphins +7 and maybe Dez Bryant @ 7/1 first TD scorer.  The latter is close but can't see how DeMarco Murray can be favourite in that game given he has scored 2 out of 25 Cowboys TD's this year and the Dolphins have a very good rushing D.  Other games look tough.  Normally Detroit would be close to a automatic pick for me in this kind of spot.

I'm on panthers -3 and Bengals -7 and would probably do a bit more if it helps anyone on the other side.

PADDY POWER

Thanksgiving NFL Free Bet Special!
Green Bay Packers At Detroit Lions
Thurs. 5.30pm - Sky Sports 3
Miami Dolphins At Dallas Cowboys
Thurs. 9.15pm - Sky Sports 3
San Francisco 49ers At Baltimore Ravens
Fri. 1.20am - Sky Sports 3
Free Bet Special
If the last score of in any of these games is a Field Goal Paddy Power will refund all losing Match Handicap Bets on that match as a free bet on the weekend's American Football.

lol tho, my max bet is £3.55. ^^^

Ha!  I thought I had a semi functioning Paddy Power account and my max was £28 on the 49ers game and £35 on the Dolphins game.  FFS I have a bankroll of about a 20000th the size of Paddy Power and even I will take a £100 on any NFL game at a generally available price!!!!!

Cheers Brent will be getting stuck in on these

Any Stato's out there want to have a go at pricing the value of that offer?  i.e. is it better to get 19/20 somewhere else without the offer?

And sigh at being restricted to £3.55, Paddy seem quite happy to allow me whatever I want.... wonder why!

It is worth more in a close game like the late game for sure.  It is about 35% chance that the first play of the game will be a field goal.  If we assume that this is reduced by about half then you would be getting your money back about 17.5% and it only impacts you half of the time so assuming no other edge on a $110 bet:

50% *£100 return = £50
41.75%*-£110 = -£45.92

So it makes every bet +£4.08 in EV roughly.  I think my workings are correct there.  Given the average bet is -£4.55 then it is worth about 10c I think so in answer to your question yes it is better than taking -105!!!  I hope!!!

Really good write up for Baltimore game.  Very long but well worth a read if you have time.  From a great NFL blog http://fantasy-sports-nation.blogspot.com/


OK, here we go... Hargaugh vs. Harbaugh... I probably don't have to write too many words here because the match-up ought to be clear... In many ways these teams are so similar... Great defenses, efficient offenses (except on odd occasions when Cam Cameron forgets to give Ray Rice the football)...

I really don't think the public has seen the TRUE Ravens yet... They've lost 3 games this year to crappy squads (Tennessee, Jax, & Seattle)... Two of those losses came the week after they played the Steelers... Most of the reasons for those losses were sleepwalking on offense & costly turnovers (3 vs. Seattle in the RED ZONE, 2 on kickoff returns)... I don't care who you're playing, you just can't hand the other team 17 free points & expect to win in the NFL... Basically the same things happened vs. Tennessee & Jacksonville...

San Francisco is undefeated (save for the overtime loss vs. the Cowboys)... Since that's in the back of many people's minds (& with only one loss), the 49ers are being discussed along side the Packers as the best two teams in the NFL right now... What makes me grin is that the same 'experts' can't even see fit to put the Ravens in the top "3" of just the AFC!!!... Most recent I saw was Nick Mangini (ESPN) ranking the Ravens behind the Patriots & Steelers (even though the Ravens beat the Steelers twice already this year, as well as beat the Houston Texans by 15, and annihilated the Jets (whom many consider somewhat neck & neck with the Patriots)...

Whatever...

I understand the 'emotion' of siding with the Steelers or Patriots (but the 'logic' still escapes me)...

Actually, the most dangerous thing for the Ravens would be to put the whammy on San Francisco here on Thanksgiving Night... At that point, it's likely that the Ravens could follow up that victory with losses to the Browns & Colts...

Impressive as the 49ers have been this year... I just don't think that they ought to be compared with (let alone 'elevated above' the status of the Ravens) until they've proven more... A LOT MORE...

A lot of folks have come & gone into M&T Bank Stadium with their shiny little records only to go home with a few more players on the PUP list, another "L" on their resume, and their tails between their legs...

Think it's so easy?...

Nobody... NOBODY... In the Joe Flacco era... west of the Indianapolis Colts (& that was a 'Peyton Manning' led Indianapolis Colts that - um - went on to play [& were 'favored' over] the New Orleans Saints in the Superbowl... THOSE Colts barely managed to beat the Ravens (17-15)...

The only OTHER teams to beat Baltimore at M&T were the Steelers, TWICE, (both times by a field goal - once, in OT, & both times where Baltimore held 4th quarter leads & BOTH times when the Steelers went on to play in the Superbowl that same year)... Also, the division rival Bengals beat them once (17-14) on a TD pass from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds to play...

That's it... That's the BEST 3 Superbowl bound teams were able to manage in Baltimore (an 'overtime' win, a FG win, & a 2 point win)...

Most will forget also (BEFORE the Joe Flacco era - when Baltimore had to exist with Kyle FUCKING Boller as QB), that the undefeated New England Patriots (yeah, THOSE 18-1 New England Patriots), barely escaped with their lives in Baltimore late in the season on a winning drive that had the benefit of shady penalty after shady penalty...

Oh, but I'm sure ALL of that past history is just a fluke... I'm SURE the 49ers, who haven't managed a season better than 8-8 in a DECADE, are going to waltz into Baltimore & show the Ravens who is boss... I'll have to look, but it seems to me that the Ravens have more ROAD PLAYOFF WINS during that same span...

Alright look... I don't want to say that the 49ers are bad... They've had a nice season & they're coached well... I'm going to have to go with older brother JOHN here though... It may not be apparent to the fucking HACK TV sportscasters out there, but this is a huge jump in class for the 49ers...

It's one thing to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, & Cardinals (in your division) twice a year, then have the Cleveland Browns & Tampa Bay Bucs come to town & beat up on them... But it's a whole damn other thing to travel all the way East & play in a prime time game against a team that the PITTSBURGH STEELERS (who as I mentioned before are the team that all these 'expert' sportscasters have as being BETTER than the Ravens)... The STEELERS THEMSELVES know that they have to bring their A+1 game into Baltimore if they hope to win (Didn't work in week 1 when they were smoked 35-7)... Then #2 are the Patriots (according to the same 'experts')... Umm - the Patriots got smoked by the Steelers...

Anyway, if the Steelers are usually 3 point DOGS to the Ravens at M&T... You mean to tell me that the 49ers ought to be 3 point dogs too???... The Steelers have played in 3 Super Bowls (& won 2) since the 49ers even sniffed the playoffs...

Come on Man!

Corals got a market on their website which QB will have most passing yards.  They have Rodgers @ 5/2.....think he should be 7/4 max and a mate with a slightly better grasp of these things than me was even shorter.  Can't get on but great value!!!

£300 GB -4.0 @1.91 with PP :D

wow pretty sick moves on the line today, was -6/6.5 this morning.

Lets gogogogo Pack, treble on Pack ml/Dallas-7/Bal-3

FTD's
Rodgers first @ 28/1
Rodgers first Packer TD @ 18/1
Robinson first @ 12/1
Boldin first @ 9/1

Got £55 on Packers -4.5 with PP

£40 Rodgers most yards today @ 5/2 with Corals (Tx Redarmi)

Has there ever been a 0-0 draw in the NFL?

[edit] PS Just googled it and there have been 71 NFL or college 0-0's

71!!!  Really?  I would have had it much lower than that if I had to guess.  I can't remember one in 12 years follwing the NFL and 5+ keeping an eye on college too.  In fact I can only remember a handful of ties.

not rly a classic

norrrrrr faded the rodgers at first and goal at the 1.

last nfl 0-0 was 1943. 71 sounds waaaaaaay too high

A lot of them will be from way back when, pre 2nd world war. When the games would be played in ridic conditions and in an era where the rules made it harder to score points.

The last example I can find in the NFL is the Lions vs Giants in 1943.

get the fk out suh.

Lions completely throwing this away

All the PP Lions backers have a sweat, wal

Gone in for doubles on the fins

ding ding dinggggg.

Forgot to post aswell but oioiiiiii!

Aftertiming ***** ChipRich.

Wp Knave

Oh June, it's a joint thing!

More aftertiming from ChipRich...Cheers for tipping this one up LeKnave, Robinson oiii oiiii!!!!

You shutttttttttttt upppppppp

San Fran over 17 @ 10/11 my only bet of the night.

They're giving it away.

Hold ROGERSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!

youre a million on tbh

Yeah I've managed to scoop defeat from the jaws of victory a couple times the last week or so though :D

added Vernon Davis @ 10/1

Gone for Boldin 9/1 and Crabtree 12/1 1st TD late game.

Don't fancy a lot, prob Balt if I had to bet.

Added over 49.5 rcving yards 5/6 Crabtree too

GL guys lets hope we're all getting paiiiiiiiiiid!!

weeeeee

got out awesome performance from suggggggs

<3 Aaron Rodgers

Swiftly on to the sunday games:

Double on Panthers-3 and Chargers-6

BUF@NYJ  Sanchez @ 33/1 (skybet)
CLE@CIN  Little @ 33/1 (paddys)
              Little first CLE @ 22/1  (paddys)
              Little Anytime @ 7/1  (paddys)
HOU@JAC Foster @ 11/2    (paddys)

Yep on them too.

Prob gna go with Carolina and Seattle double to start...

Bump, but I seem to have accumulated quite a big position already, going in several times midweek with horsey binks.

Treble on

Carolina -3.5, Seattle -3.5 and Houston -3.5.

colts gonna fuck you all i swear max colts +4

thats why they call it gamblin' son

Dunno where you got +4 from.  But when that's gone, +3 available here

Done a teaser this week!


4 Team Teaser - Pending    161.64 to win 484.92    
 
  1.  Football - Buffalo Bills/New York Jets - total Over 36½ (1.91)

  2.  Football - Cleveland Browns/Cincinnati Bengals - total Over 32 (1.91)

  3.  Football - Houston Texans/Jacksonville Jaguars - total Under 43½ (1.91)

  4.  Football - Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Tennessee Titans - total Under 50 (1.91)



I'll prob pile on the later games too

KC +10.5, Was 2.44 and Philly 2.50 for me this week.

oioiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

oiioiiiiiii.

Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford Inactive for Raiders, so we've gone with Heyward Bey 14/1 in 2nd TV game for Oakland.

Ffs, what are the bears doing! I'm on bears and the unders,

Wahey!

Anyone got any tips for the late game to spin this up on?

I've had a little punt on Isaac Redmond at 25/1 with the nanny for first TD scorer.  Ladbrokes are 28/1 and offer e/w which os obv better but I can't get on with them outside shop hours.  KC got 27th ranked rush D in league and Big Ben has a broken thumb so he isn't going to be as effective as usual irrespective of how tough he is.  So backs get more of the ball.  Wouldn't put anyone off Meandenhall @ 9/2 but surely Redmond is too big as their rb with second most carries at 25/1.

Damn, cant get on anywhere above 14/1 :(


Have gone for chielf on the handicap and overs

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwCtDobywCM

It's Timmy Time!

wiiii  4 singles in inc denver... NO and pits to complete the 7 fold

We've followed you in but took the 20/1 first steeler TD. 

Also on Cotchery @ 20/1 first steeler, and Thomas Jones first Kansas @ 10/1.

glgl

On all 3 that LeKnave just posted and I'd like to take this opportunity to thank YorkyFC, ChipRich & LeKnave himself getting me on a nice 1st touchdown scorer today at a big price whilst I was asleep. Great people, all 3 of them.

ty ty fave was taking NE when 10-0 down at 2.36.... knew brady never let me down

want Kansas + 10.5 any late takers?

yep, on the 1s Jones posted. Threw a little at Breaston too, gl us

Yeah this is definitely better.  Nice bet

sigh im too late to get action :(

grrrrrrrr we had a chance given to both. Good bets.

Just noticed that Paddy Power offer first second half td scorer betting.  They are 66/1 no TD scorer.  That is a truly remarkable price and it isn't really game specific.  It would be value in lots and lots of games.  Possible their maths is off and we can bet this blind every game.  i think it should be about 16/1-20/1.

Oh and if anyones max bet is more than they want then take the max and drop me a pm and I will ship funds straight away....;-).  Up to £150

oh no, its 33s now

did you get on mate?

Gutted iv not got a sweat for this as the 66s had gone. :(

Not a penny.....The max bet on my account there was £2 and I thought it was probably worth not shopping it and getting a clean account for next week for that.....GUTTED

oh no, i tried gettin on too. Let me deposit, then said 'sorry price has changed' or some bs so i didnt bother. fofl's

What a fucking shout Red, great effort.

Shame my max bet was 34p aswell, no one has seen any rewards for your 66/1 shot.

This is pretty sick....oh well at least I backed KC +10.5 I suppose.....

grrrr, gutted missed price. great shout tho, hopefully coo's still on in coming weeks. doubt it tho.

Pittsburgh safely in cmon N Orleans

OMG 66/1 shot.  I don't often back NFL but would definitely have had a tickle at that. 

wow nice shout red. unfortunately i fell asleep during second quarter so couldnt check. wont what the limit would have been on a clean paddy account

great tip red, keep em coming.

what do we like 2nite?  Had a bit on Lance Moore @ 16/1.

it's 66/1 on VC tonight. still worth backing blind?

doubt it in 2nites game

plus thats for the whole game, not the 2nd half.

oh wow, that was huge then! fml for sleeping!

I think Meacham is a fair price at 18/1 with Ladbrokes but I wouldn't be a backer at 14/1 so it is tight.  Why do you like Lance Moore?  On what he has done this season so far I would  make him a 16/1 shot which is what he is but with a handful more receptions than usual he would be value.  Inclined to take a chance with him.

just randomly punting on this one really mate.  yeah it was a toss up between him and Meachem.

I have a nice bet on the Unders tonight.

Whilst I could ramble on about stats, trends, weather, constructively interfering playing styles for a bit, the truth is I misclicked on the Unders for the Steelers game.  Stupidity at its finest.

on saints -7 and

FTD meecham and colston

Not sure how reliable this is...

but Manningham is out, and apparently Eli has been out throwing to Nicks, Cruz and Ramses Barden. Barden is 40s 1st and 20s 1st Giants TD so we've had a tickle just incase.

Barden Barden

yep, Barden starts in his place.

40s 1st TD and 20s 1st giants TD cant be that bad of a bet really can it

OHHHHHH RAMSES BADEN, HES A WIDEOUT, HES GOOD AT TD'S

HE WONT BE ON THE PITCH COZ HES JEREL JERNIGANS LITTLE BITCH

HE WALKS AROUND THE TOUCHLINE WITH HIS HEAD IN A DITCHH!

Was just coming to post about Barden......40/1 is value obv.

get thereeeeeeeeeeeeee

gone in on last TD too

Barden Barden's barmy Army.

Tried getting £40 on Baden 1st TD but only let me have £25 and done Saints -7 too

Get there you fking great lump and get us paiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiid!!

ooo 25s best in few places for Barden.

Come on Big Blueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Support Giants, but got Saints for Superbowl. Want the Big Blueeeeeeee tho as Saints prob still make it even if they lose.


Had a little on Lance Moore 16s too, too devving with Jones and BH landing it if i dont get on.

oh no, Barden was nearly away, pulled down tho.

Lance Moore had a shot in end zone too, fol's so far. glad we're on tho.

sickkkkk, coo so nearly hosed up!

Lance Moore baby, oioiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

different coo hosed up tho, oioiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii.

That'll do.

landing coups fancy dress outfits from zoo's
more spikes than the zulu's
whose you, jones and chip rich
getting rich hoping for NO PICK 6
make other punters look like dicks
like rick, betting his case on meecham like a prick

Come on now Barden, 1st Giants plz.

rofllll

Is it too ambitious for us to start going for some Sunday/Monday night FTD double coups boys?

they are late team news ninja's red

Bet under 44.5 points @ 15/8.  Pretty decent value and like 2h unders in general.

IN, lol

under 44.5 for the saints ;)